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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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Posts

  • zepherinzepherin Registered User regular
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.
    I have heard through the grapevine that the cultivated donor networks of Bush and the tea party have been obliterated. Trump did run on a lot of smaller donations, more than Biden. But there has been quite a bit of damage, and I’m not sure they’ll have their donor network rebuilt anytime soon.

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  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    wazilla wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    It's not really baseless speculation or anything though. They were broke at the end of the election canceling ad buys and the like. Hundreds of millions of dollars funneled from the campaign through Trump owned shell corporations and on to undisclosed locations.

    Yeah, they left people in the cold three different times at rallies because the credit for the buses didn't clear.

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  • mxmarksmxmarks Registered User regular
    CNN just showed how it can still end in a tie and I swear to god my body recoiled.

    I know it’s very unlikely but still don’t put that shit out into the universe!

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    I strongly disagree, Trump is a cult of personality, he is going to wrap himself in a persecution complex and I'd lay money that he's still going to draw massive crowds

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  • SurfpossumSurfpossum A nonentity trying to preserve the anonymity he so richly deserves.Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!
    hive sea knee off

    I’ve seen enough

    It’s extra dumb because you need a second N sound to make the rebus work.
    It's an on-off switch.

    Does anyone know when PA will stop counting for the night? I can't help obsessively refreshing stuff.

    10 = yes, 1 = no; yes = 10, no = 1
    Xaquinmoniker
  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    mxmarks wrote: »
    CNN just showed how it can still end in a tie and I swear to god my body recoiled.

    I know it’s very unlikely but still don’t put that shit out into the universe!

    the thought of a tie is actually pornographic for the 24/7 news channels

    DacFencingsaxGiantGeek2020knitdanRaijurahkeesh2000NobeardEddyMan in the MistsElldrenSolarKoopahTroopahGnome-Interruptus
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    We still haven't seen what a Trump-exiled-from-the-GOP-but-still-rallying looks like

    At least 30 million of those voters are MAGA cultists, not Republicans

    The MAGA cult is, to a great extent, the worship of power and authority, specifically that power and authority which is granted to the most important man they are aware of. If Donald Trump loses power, he will lose the respect of the MAGA cult. In addition, if he loses power, Twitter etc can ban him the next day because he's no longer a government official and at that point, how does Trump even talk to his base. Deplatforming has worked for everyone else after all, its hugely powerful, because angry cult members are also quite lazy and really are just responding to engagement algorithms, which will happily sheperd them along to the next angry white man, who hopefully won't be QUITE so angry.

    Even if he loses the election, Trump is likely to be with us for QUITE some time, to my horror. That MAGA cult is going to follow him wherever he goes, and that means he's going to be a draw to a huge crowd.

    He's absolutely going to try to make TrumpTV a thing, or get some kind of cushy deal on OAN, so that he can leverage his loss. Every day talking to his cultists about how he's the true president, and everything was stolen from him.

    There's really no way to deplatform Trump. Twitter's not going to ban him - They haven't been keeping his account around because he's a government official. They could ban him and say that the Presidential Twitter account is still active. Twitter keeps him around because he makes them fuckloads of money. They're not about to throw that away, even if he loses.

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    The only way I feel like he loses a substantial portion of his minions is if the bank actually forecloses on all his properties and he ends up completely penniless

    even in that case, he'll still be able to draw joel osteen sized crowds, but his national power and influence will probably fall apart

    override367 on
    JaysonFourmoniker
  • DynagripDynagrip Destroy Everything You Touch HoustonRegistered User, ClubPA regular
    Surfpossum wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!
    hive sea knee off

    I’ve seen enough

    It’s extra dumb because you need a second N sound to make the rebus work.
    It's an on-off switch.

    Does anyone know when PA will stop counting for the night? I can't help obsessively refreshing stuff.

    Yeah, I have the same question

  • LuvTheMonkeyLuvTheMonkey High Sierra Serenade Registered User regular
    Update I saw on the NYT tracker feed:
    There are roughly 175,000 absentee ballots still to count in Pennsylvania, including more than 58,000 in Philadelphia. Major counties like Philadelphia will keep counting through the night.

    If that's accurate, 100k+ margin is probably locked.

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  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    wazilla wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    It's not really baseless speculation or anything though. They were broke at the end of the election canceling ad buys and the like. Hundreds of millions of dollars funneled from the campaign through Trump owned shell corporations and on to undisclosed locations.

    Once Trump is out of the picture, though, the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, and all their other old school Sugar Daddies will reappear to bail them out. After the election, I think there may be some tension between the Orange Man True Believers and the GOP elites, but it's not going to be as much as we'd like. The many disparate sub-demographics of the American Right have always been united by their hatred of the Left more than any sort of real ideology.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    We still haven't seen what a Trump-exiled-from-the-GOP-but-still-rallying looks like

    At least 30 million of those voters are MAGA cultists, not Republicans

    The MAGA cult is, to a great extent, the worship of power and authority, specifically that power and authority which is granted to the most important man they are aware of. If Donald Trump loses power, he will lose the respect of the MAGA cult. In addition, if he loses power, Twitter etc can ban him the next day because he's no longer a government official and at that point, how does Trump even talk to his base. Deplatforming has worked for everyone else after all, its hugely powerful, because angry cult members are also quite lazy and really are just responding to engagement algorithms, which will happily sheperd them along to the next angry white man, who hopefully won't be QUITE so angry.

    Even if he loses the election, Trump is likely to be with us for QUITE some time, to my horror. That MAGA cult is going to follow him wherever he goes, and that means he's going to be a draw to a huge crowd.

    He's absolutely going to try to make TrumpTV a thing, or get some kind of cushy deal on OAN, so that he can leverage his loss. Every day talking to his cultists about how he's the true president, and everything was stolen from him.

    There's really no way to deplatform Trump. Twitter's not going to ban him - They haven't been keeping his account around because he's a government official. They could ban him and say that the Presidential Twitter account is still active. Twitter keeps him around because he makes them fuckloads of money. They're not about to throw that away, even if he loses.

    I honestly think they will, I think he's a liability to them when he's out of the office. Remember, he is not a person. He is the avatar of an algorithm designed to create engagement by fostering rage, easy enough to sheperd them off to someone else. As soon as he, for example, isn't President they can just turn down how widely his tweets get shown by 75%.

    I really do think its overwhelmingly driven by the worship of power, with that gone, he's a much less appealing 'hero'.

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  • DacDac Registered User regular
    mxmarks wrote: »
    CNN just showed how it can still end in a tie and I swear to god my body recoiled.

    I know it’s very unlikely but still don’t put that shit out into the universe!

    the thought of a tie is actually pornographic for the 24/7 news channels

    Their map was Biden losing PA, NV, and AZ, but winning GA.

    Straight up masturbatory fantasies.

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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Update I saw on the NYT tracker feed:
    There are roughly 175,000 absentee ballots still to count in Pennsylvania, including more than 58,000 in Philadelphia. Major counties like Philadelphia will keep counting through the night.

    If that's accurate, 100k+ margin is probably locked.

    It is: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • DiannaoChongDiannaoChong Registered User regular
    I strongly disagree, Trump is a cult of personality, he is going to wrap himself in a persecution complex and I'd lay money that he's still going to draw massive crowds

    He is going to be a major problem after inauguration. We can only hope twitter wont be shitbirds and actually ban him like they say they will.

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  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    We still haven't seen what a Trump-exiled-from-the-GOP-but-still-rallying looks like

    At least 30 million of those voters are MAGA cultists, not Republicans

    The MAGA cult is, to a great extent, the worship of power and authority, specifically that power and authority which is granted to the most important man they are aware of. If Donald Trump loses power, he will lose the respect of the MAGA cult. In addition, if he loses power, Twitter etc can ban him the next day because he's no longer a government official and at that point, how does Trump even talk to his base. Deplatforming has worked for everyone else after all, its hugely powerful, because angry cult members are also quite lazy and really are just responding to engagement algorithms, which will happily sheperd them along to the next angry white man, who hopefully won't be QUITE so angry.

    The bigger thing is that I don't think there's really anyone on the conservative side who can replace Trump in that particular role. Remember, we're talking about a person who has existed in our cultural zeitgeist as a touchstone for well on four decades. They will try to move his base to someone else, but I'm not so sure that they'll take.

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  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    I’m sure Trump will continue to be able to milk a good chunk of the MAGA cult for a while. He’ll probably lose the lion’s share of followers cause of the loser stink, but the literal die hards that attend his COVID therapy rallies will stick around for a good bit. The ones that don’t die at least.

    Just look at Sarah Palin and how long she was able to grift people despite barely having a fraction of Trump’s followers.

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  • htmhtm Registered User regular
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  • cursedkingcursedking Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Update I saw on the NYT tracker feed:
    There are roughly 175,000 absentee ballots still to count in Pennsylvania, including more than 58,000 in Philadelphia. Major counties like Philadelphia will keep counting through the night.

    If that's accurate, 100k+ margin is probably locked.

    It is: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

    the amount of votes left is accurate but i don't think the margin is.

  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    I’m sure Trump will continue to be able to milk a good chunk of the MAGA cult for a while. He’ll probably lose the lion’s share of followers cause of the loser stink, but the literal die hards that attend his COVID therapy rallies will stick around for a good bit. The ones that don’t die at least.

    Just look at Sarah Palin and how long she was able to grift people despite barely having a fraction of Trump’s followers.

    What loser stink? Biden STOLE the election with FAKE BALLOTS, and SHARPIEGATE stole in person votes

    Try and put yourself in the brain of the kind of person who would wave a loaded weapon at a building where they're counting votes

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Seriously, the longer this stretches, the more time we give Trump and his allies time to test the waters for their coup. We are way past time on some of these calls

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    VuIBhrs.png
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  • Hahnsoo1Hahnsoo1 Make Ready. We Hunt.Registered User regular
    The only way I feel like he loses a substantial portion of his minions is if the bank actually forecloses on all his properties and he ends up completely penniless

    even in that case, he'll still be able to draw joel osteen sized crowds, but his national power and influence will probably fall apart
    He has enough property and real estate that he wouldn't end up penniless. I read some article saying that he wouldn't be penniless since he can liquidate his assets, but he'd certainly lose a ton of his businesses around the world.

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    Hahnsoo1 wrote: »
    The only way I feel like he loses a substantial portion of his minions is if the bank actually forecloses on all his properties and he ends up completely penniless

    even in that case, he'll still be able to draw joel osteen sized crowds, but his national power and influence will probably fall apart
    He has enough property and real estate that he wouldn't end up penniless. I read some article saying that he wouldn't be penniless since he can liquidate his assets, but he'd certainly lose a ton of his businesses around the world.

    It really depends how much the wolves go at him

    With Biden being president, I would imagine all of his business interests in China are about to run into a "The party has more to gain by pleasing the incoming American president" problem because autocracy is a bitch

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  • SixSix Tech Sgt Chen Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Seriously, the longer this stretches, the more time we give Trump and his allies time to test the waters for their coup. We are way past time on some of these calls

    “Calls” by news organizations don’t legally matter, though.

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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    Fuck you brain, I don't care what you just saw, you're not escaping out of my ears!

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  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    mxmarks wrote: »
    CNN just showed how it can still end in a tie and I swear to god my body recoiled.

    I know it’s very unlikely but still don’t put that shit out into the universe!

    the thought of a tie is actually pornographic for the 24/7 news channels

    You think the Enemies of the American People would be wary of jerking off over four more years of Trump.

  • TheBigEasyTheBigEasy Registered User regular
    So its 6 am over here and its over 1100 new posts in the thread... where are we right now and did something happen in the past 6-7 hours?

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Six wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Seriously, the longer this stretches, the more time we give Trump and his allies time to test the waters for their coup. We are way past time on some of these calls

    “Calls” by news organizations don’t legally matter, though.

    They do, however, matter a ton politically

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  • thatassemblyguythatassemblyguy Technical Debt Janitor he/himRegistered User regular
    TheBigEasy wrote: »
    So its 6 am over here and its over 1100 new posts in the thread... where are we right now and did something happen in the past 6-7 hours?

    Still waiting.

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  • knitdanknitdan Registered User regular
    htm wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    wazilla wrote: »
    I expect Trump and his cronies have largely looted the RNC and have left it in shambles. There's going to be a ton of infighting.

    We keep saying and hoping that Republicans are on the verge of imploding, but it never happens. We really need to face facts at some point that their batshit insane lying and shit is driving their turnout up and up. It could be tied to Trump's celebrity, but we keep doing better in Dem turnout, but they're doing better too.

    It's not really baseless speculation or anything though. They were broke at the end of the election canceling ad buys and the like. Hundreds of millions of dollars funneled from the campaign through Trump owned shell corporations and on to undisclosed locations.

    Once Trump is out of the picture, though, the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, and all their other old school Sugar Daddies will reappear to bail them out. After the election, I think there may be some tension between the Orange Man True Believers and the GOP elites, but it's not going to be as much as we'd like. The many disparate sub-demographics of the American Right have always been united by their hatred of the Left more than any sort of real ideology.

    At least one Koch brother is dead, the other one is 85, and Sheldon Adelson is looking these days like he drank out of the wrong grail.

    Not saying there isn’t still a threat from GOP sugar daddies, but that generation is just about done. Next up is Peter Thiel and his ilk.

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    mcdermott wrote: »
    mxmarks wrote: »
    CNN just showed how it can still end in a tie and I swear to god my body recoiled.

    I know it’s very unlikely but still don’t put that shit out into the universe!

    the thought of a tie is actually pornographic for the 24/7 news channels

    You think the Enemies of the American People would be wary of jerking off over four more years of Trump.

    It's more that for a 24/7 news channel, a tie means months more of this mess, the mess where we're up at fucking midnight on work nights mashing f5 every second, except instead its to see if a civil war has started

    they're largely soulless mercenaries

    override367 on
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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    So he’s having a normal one, then

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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Do any of us think that Trump's foreign strongman buddies are going to keep his number around after Inauguration day? I don't get the impression that any of them LIKE him, even Kim Jong Un things he's a moron

    override367 on
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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    I begrudgingly admit that as overwhelmingly dissatisfied I am with Biden as a candidate, it’d be really nice not to read stuff like this if he is sworn in.

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    TheBigEasy wrote: »
    So its 6 am over here and its over 1100 new posts in the thread... where are we right now and did something happen in the past 6-7 hours?

    Georgia is inching to the point where Biden overtakes Trump, and it should happen within the hour (although it's possible the SoS has stopped updating numbers).

    Pennsylvania is continuing to get closer as well, and is looking to not be even close in the end.

    ArcTangent on
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  • Jebus314Jebus314 Registered User regular
    TheBigEasy wrote: »
    So its 6 am over here and its over 1100 new posts in the thread... where are we right now and did something happen in the past 6-7 hours?

    Not much new. GA and PA are likely to flip to Biden at some point tonight (GA at around 1800 vote lead for trump, PA at around 22,000 lead for trump).

    Unlikely any media make a call tonight, but if PA has a big lead for Biden tomorrow we probably start seeing it.

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  • A Half Eaten OreoA Half Eaten Oreo Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Maybe staying up for GA isn't worth it:
    The Georgia Secretary of State website is not updating again, just like last night. It is possible the Clayton numbers have been uploaded and the person who updates the website went home for the night. Seriously.

    A Half Eaten Oreo on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    RedTide wrote: »
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    Fuck you brain, I don't care what you just saw, you're not escaping out of my ears!

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    Commander Zoom on
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  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    I strongly disagree, Trump is a cult of personality, he is going to wrap himself in a persecution complex and I'd lay money that he's still going to draw massive crowds

    He is going to be a major problem after inauguration. We can only hope twitter wont be shitbirds and actually ban him like they say they will.

    I actually think he'll be de-platformed by the Right Wing Grift Machine, regardless of what happens with Twitter. He was only useful to them as President. Once he's out of office, he becomes their competitor. Limbaugh might give him favorable air time, but Limbaugh is almost dead. Levin and the younger generation will drop him like a hot potato once he starts whatever his next grift will be. There's a finite number of marks in that demographic, so the grift is a zero sum game.

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