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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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  • President RexPresident Rex Registered User regular
    Georgia is at least providing another case against the all-too-common "why even bother voting, one vote doesn't matter" argument.

    That somehow people still make despite Michigan in 2016 being 13,000 votes. Or Florida in 2000 being 600 votes (or New Mexico in 2000 being 300 votes but nobody cares about New Mexico). Or Minnesota's senate seat in 2008 being 200 votes (and a recount that actually flipped the result). Somehow everyone's vote remains useless.

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  • The Dude With HerpesThe Dude With Herpes Registered User regular
    I realize this is petty, but looking at the Georgia numbers, assuming it does flip to Biden (regardless of recounts and all that jazz), seeing the Libertarian vote that went to Jorgenson being well above the margin that would even allow it to be in play for Biden to begin with....

    Feels satisfying. Childish, middle school seeing a bully get punched satisfying. But satisfying nonetheless.

    And you can be sure Republicans are going to notice, if they lose there. Let them go at each others throats for losing the state. It's been a few decades since Perot arguably lost Bush 1992, they could use some infighting and a villain.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Hahnsoo1 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden is currently averaging 65-69 percent of the votes being counted. If that rate continues he will win. But with such a small amount of votes left there's no way to know right this second where they're coming from. If the percentage gets under 60 it's trouble.

    Fortunately the tally of outstanding votes will eventually actually reach zero rather than just infinitely approach it.
    Yeah, it FEELS like it's Zeno's paradox because we lack patience and humans are shit at subjective measures of time. But if you actually track the votes being counted, they are being counted in a predictable, linear fashion.

    As others have noted, all of this normally goes on behind the scenes, in the days and weeks after the networks have called the winner(s) on election night and everyone's gone to bed. This time, we're all sitting around watching the sausage get made in mostly real time - and in multiple states, not just FL as in 2000. And a lot of those states had very old rusty grinders, or had to order a bunch more and set them up and find enough people to turn all the handles because this election is Huge and Weird.

    And, again, Pandemic. Have you been the most productive every day since March with all the new onsite job requirements? I haven't.

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  • Munkus BeaverMunkus Beaver Registered User, ClubPA regular
    I realize this is petty, but looking at the Georgia numbers, assuming it does flip to Biden (regardless of recounts and all that jazz), seeing the Libertarian vote that went to Jorgenson being well above the margin that would even allow it to be in play for Biden to begin with....

    Feels satisfying. Childish, middle school seeing a bully get punched satisfying. But satisfying nonetheless.

    And you can be sure Republicans are going to notice, if they lose there. Let them go at each others throats for losing the state. It's been a few decades since Perot arguably lost Bush 1992, they could use some infighting and a villain.

    Never let anyone tell you that third parties don’t matter.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Georgia is at least providing another case against the all-too-common "why even bother voting, one vote doesn't matter" argument.

    That somehow people still make despite Michigan in 2016 being 13,000 votes. Or Florida in 2000 being 600 votes (or New Mexico in 2000 being 300 votes but nobody cares about New Mexico). Or Minnesota's senate seat in 2008 being 200 votes (and a recount that actually flipped the result). Somehow everyone's vote remains useless.

    The control of the Virginia House of Delegates was determined by drawing lots in 2017 because of a literal tie.

    moniker on
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  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    cursedking wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden is currently averaging 65-69 percent of the votes being counted. If that rate continues he will win. But with such a small amount of votes left there's no way to know right this second where they're coming from. If the percentage gets under 60 it's trouble.

    Gwinnett stopped counting and has 3-4k outstanding ballots. I don't think this is right?

  • rahkeesh2000rahkeesh2000 Registered User regular
    Not everyone's vote, just *my* vote. And 1 vote remains nothing in the face of even 300.

    Most individuals cannot effect the outcome of an election *as individuals.* It is only when they see themselves as part of a group that it begins to matter.

    BlackDragon480burboCantideNitsua
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    edited November 2020


    This is like that horrible gif that loops the truck almost hitting the crash test but never quite.

    Inkstain82 on
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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Now where are we getting this numbers, I've been following our previous tracker here...

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    And my last update was Biden down by 1702 in Georgia with 9015 to go 42 minutes ago, after a drop of 144 ballots.

    Edit - I'm also not seeing any of this doom from Cohn, Wasserman, or Silver on twitter. I thought we were just waiting on a big drop of 4k ballots from John Lewis' old district, and that they would hopefully put us into the lead by a 1000 or so, and we could build up some extra margin from there.

    tbloxham on
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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    So that was 5.7k votes, of the 12.5ish I've seen come off the board, probably from Lehigh given the total. Expect at least one more update tonight for sure. Probably soon.

    Mvrck on
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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Now where are we getting this numbers, I've been following our previous tracker here...

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    And my last update was Biden down by 1702 in Georgia with 9015 to go 42 minutes ago, after a drop of 144 ballots.

    I've always used Decision Desk HQ since 2016. They've got a line on faster numbers than the big news agencies for some reason. I don't know why this github would be behind or if they'll catch up or whatnot.

  • cursedkingcursedking Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Roz wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden is currently averaging 65-69 percent of the votes being counted. If that rate continues he will win. But with such a small amount of votes left there's no way to know right this second where they're coming from. If the percentage gets under 60 it's trouble.

    Gwinnett stopped counting and has 3-4k outstanding ballots. I don't think this is right?

    This site is taking data and collating it as it comes in. The votes remaining is taking from The NY Times so it’s not super accurate but also the Georgia amount of votes was called as like 17k this evening and the deposits have been dwindling from there. Currently the latest drop from GA is not listed here because it hasn’t been picked up by the times.

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    cursedking on
  • wobblyheadedbobwobblyheadedbob Registered User regular
    cursedking wrote: »
    Roz wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden is currently averaging 65-69 percent of the votes being counted. If that rate continues he will win. But with such a small amount of votes left there's no way to know right this second where they're coming from. If the percentage gets under 60 it's trouble.

    Gwinnett stopped counting and has 3-4k outstanding ballots. I don't think this is right?

    This site is taking data and collating it as it comes in. The votes remaining is taking from The NY Times so it’s not super accurate but also the Georgia amount of votes was called as like 17k this evening and the deposits have been dwindling from there. Currently the latest drop from GA is not listed here because it hasn’t been picked up by the times.

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Oh god that site is dangerous.

    BlackDragon480Surfpossum
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Mvrck on
    PwH4Ipj.jpg
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  • Tyrant526Tyrant526 Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Philly with new update. Trump down To 18200.

    Philly with 54k votes left to report.

    Tyrant526 on
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    CelestialBadger
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    Philly with new update. Trump down To 18200.

    Philly with 54k votes left to report.

    Not Philly. That was most likely Lehigh/Allentown.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular


    Based on this tweet and the recent vote drop in Georgia being exactly 1797 votes, I'm gambling that it was actually Laurens County, not Clayton. Because 1797 is the exact amount of vote Laurens said they had outstanding about an hour or two ago.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    That last Georgia mini-dump was 237-25 for Biden.

    The blue county mail-in ballots are going to be *extremely* blue. Like over 90%.

    Fencingsaxmoniker
  • Tyrant526Tyrant526 Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    Philly with new update. Trump down To 18200.

    Philly with 54k votes left to report.

    Not Philly. That was most likely Lehigh/Allentown.

    My mistake, msnbc reportled Philly.

    New georgia update. Trump down to 1479

    Maul360.png
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Tyrant526 wrote: »
    Philly with new update. Trump down To 18200.

    Philly with 54k votes left to report.

    Not Philly. That was most likely Lehigh/Allentown.

    My mistake, msnbc reportled Philly.

    New georgia update. Trump down to 1479

    Oh I don't blame you. I got so tired of watching every news station talking every update as being from out of Philly I just started tracking this shit myself.

    Edit: I guess it's possible it could actually be Philly if they said 54k left and they're just a bit off with their math? SoS site has Philly at 58k votes currently, but it hasn't changed in hours. 5700 lines up almost perfectly with what was subtracted from Lehigh in the last update though.

    Mvrck on
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  • y2jake215y2jake215 certified Flat Birther theorist the Last Good Boy onlineRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    That last Georgia mini-dump was 237-25 for Biden.

    The blue county mail-in ballots are going to be *extremely* blue. Like over 90%.

    I’m seeing this one - might be the same, I dunno. But heavvvvvvy blue drops from Clayton (and I assume Gwinnett tomorrow)

    y2jake215 on
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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    y2jake215 wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    That last Georgia mini-dump was 237-25 for Biden.

    The blue county mail-in ballots are going to be *extremely* blue. Like over 90%.

    I’m seeing this one - might be the same, I dunno. But heavvvvvvy blue drops from Clayton (and I assume Gwinnett tomorrow)


    That one was earlier.

    Clayton apparently intends to post them in batches rather than all at once. (Which is good).

  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
  • CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    htm wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden won 61% of that drop. If he keeps that exact same win rate and there are 7.2K votes are left, then he wins by 105.

    *clench*

    That's in recount and possible change territory, leading to the possibility of Bush v Gore 2: Now with Peachtree Street

    I’m struggling to think of a time when a recount changed the result on a national level race. Bueller? (Bush/Gore was the obvious one, but I was reminded that there it was the cancellation of the recount and retention of the initial result that ended things)

    Doodmann
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
    ArcanisTheImpotentForarElvenshaemoniker
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    163k or so, with some 7-12.5k in limbo depending if that was actually Philly just now or not.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    CroakerBC wrote: »
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    htm wrote: »
    cursedking wrote: »
    GA just dropped another small vote tally, this time a total of 1.7k votes. Biden gained 1037 of them, total differential is at 1,479.

    only 7.2k votes are left.

    if my lateheadmath is right that means biden is... on track to lose the state by like 30 votes?

    or up by 30?

    eeee

    Biden won 61% of that drop. If he keeps that exact same win rate and there are 7.2K votes are left, then he wins by 105.

    *clench*

    That's in recount and possible change territory, leading to the possibility of Bush v Gore 2: Now with Peachtree Street

    I’m struggling to think of a time when a recount changed the result on a national level race. Bueller? (Bush/Gore was the obvious one, but I was reminded that there it was the cancellation of the recount and retention of the initial result that ended things)

    2008 US Senate. Franken trailed by 215 votes after the first count out of ~2.9 million. After a certified recount with lots of little legal skirmishes, he won by 225 votes.

    Edit: Oh yeah, then there were even *more* legal skirmishes and he finally won by like 300.

    Inkstain82 on
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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    The 58 count was specifically for Philadelphia

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Except Arizona.

    thatassemblyguyJaysonFour
  • The Dude With HerpesThe Dude With Herpes Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    If Biden wins Georgia (or any state, really) by 1776 votes, I will have a smile in my heart until the day I die.

    Not because I think it matters, but because there are enough " 'murcans!" who would see something like that as a sign from the lurd their dog as something and heads would either pop on the spot, or would forever torment their souls if they didn't just immediately take it as some message that god was telling them it was OK. :rotate:

    It's dumb, but it's the little things, ya know?

    EDIT: why hasn't Alaska been called? I'm confused, it clearly isn't in play; at least in the presidential election anyway.

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  • KPCKPC Registered User regular
    If Biden wins Georgia (or any state, really) by 1776 votes, I will have a smile in my heart until the day I die.

    Not because I think it matters, but because there are enough " 'murcans!" who would see something like that as a sign from the lurd their dog as something and heads would either pop on the spot, or would forever torment their souls if they didn't just immediately take it as some message that god was telling them it was OK. :rotate:

    It's dumb, but it's the little things, ya know?

    It would be even more of a sign that it was rigged to troll because God only sends signs if it is to congratulate them for being good moral little boys and girls!

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  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    You know what the amazing part is?

    We're not even at the recount phase.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    163k or so, with some 7-12.5k in limbo depending if that was actually Philly just now or not.

    The people with lots of access to the data (twitter pollsters) seem to be starting to get pretty confident, but, they've been confident for says and were saying we were going to get more than 200k lead in Pensylvania? Did they slash the amount of outstanding ballots at some point? This whole process is just a joke. People posting updates in different places, in different ways.

    I swear I'm so stressed I could explode. I really had high hopes for the

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    githhub thing here, and it gave me good stuff throughout the day (although I corrected the ballots outstanding down from what they say, I figured there were actually 180k left as of the last update on it), but now it has gone to sleep because like, the NYT isn't updating.

    Seriously people, I've not slept in days. Get a night shift and a day shift and count ballots and post ballots. The middle of the night is the PERFECT time to announce a lead change, because it will be hours in the past by the time angry people wake up and read it.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Seriously people, I've not slept in days.

    You should go do that.

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  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    You know what the amazing part is?

    We're not even at the recount phase.

    At this point, I'm still pretty sure that Biden can get to 270+ just with states outside of a recount margin. But I'm not really really really sure.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Seriously people, I've not slept in days.

    You should go do that.

    OK, when I say I've not slept in days I mean, I have not had a satisfying 8 hour sleep despite efforts to get it, because I just wake up hungry for more vote counting. I've slept, just not much.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    there are 160k left in the state according to the secstate's website. there are zero counties in PA that trump won the mail in head to head, even blood red 80/20 R counties. his best is a close loss, so it's unlikely there would be any swings back, so really gaining over the current margin is all that really matters, and it looks like philly alone can do it with it's eye popping +86 Biden mail in margin. bucks and lehigh have about another 20k combined, which were both around +40 Biden mail in margin, and allegheny is sitting on their 35k until tomorrow and have had a a +60 Biden mail in margin.

    there are a couple other counties with low thousands remaining, which obviously could matter, but no counties actually went for trump by mail, so unless there's just a truly spectacularly bad set of remaining ballots from these counties, you can see why nate silver and david wasserman are talking the way they are.

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  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Agreed. I’ll be ecstatic just to see Biden take the lead in one of these states, but let’s all take deep breaths and recognize there could be a few more curves until such time as the professionals in the field say it’s a done deal, no more ballots to find.

    And then there will be the lame duck clusterfuck of the day to keep track of. Which isn’t meant to piss on the hopefully pending parade, just noting we can strike a balance between a measure of relief (if/when it comes) and knowing that a measure of wariness and caution will be needed for months to come yet.

    But good *deity* would I love to crash with that next tiny step in the right direction...

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
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  • sanstodosanstodo Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    163k or so, with some 7-12.5k in limbo depending if that was actually Philly just now or not.

    The people with lots of access to the data (twitter pollsters) seem to be starting to get pretty confident, but, they've been confident for says and were saying we were going to get more than 200k lead in Pensylvania? Did they slash the amount of outstanding ballots at some point? This whole process is just a joke. People posting updates in different places, in different ways.

    I swear I'm so stressed I could explode. I really had high hopes for the

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    githhub thing here, and it gave me good stuff throughout the day (although I corrected the ballots outstanding down from what they say, I figured there were actually 180k left as of the last update on it), but now it has gone to sleep because like, the NYT isn't updating.

    Seriously people, I've not slept in days. Get a night shift and a day shift and count ballots and post ballots. The middle of the night is the PERFECT time to announce a lead change, because it will be hours in the past by the time angry people wake up and read it.

    Go to bed. Everything is fine. Seriously, everything is fine. Maybe some champagne or beer in the fridge so you can have a celebration drink when you wake up.

    We've given Trump enough of our lives. It's time to move past him because, in the words of philosopher Andrew W.K., living a happy life is the best revenge.

    ForarElvenshaeStabbity Stylemoniker
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