EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
So he wasn't satisfied with just being very rich? That last 5 million apparently was so important. Without it the remaining 17 would be lonely, you know.
Anyway in all seriousness I can genuinely see where fresh new problems can and will crop up when you're suddenly rich but between anonymity (granted, I'm not sure how many places in the States allow that), measured spending (...or secret, like doing nothing but blowing cash via Kickstarter) and my own current position of being constantly unable to do half the things I want to do I find it impossible to imagine it being a step down in terms of quality of life
That thing you're thinking of? Yes, it'll be able to do that.
Write CHA on the moon?
Annie wins the lottery and I become ANT Gaming Kinderparty.
Or ANR.
Or whatever he wants it to be because he'll own me.
You already have a sponsor, you little shit! He'd have to buy you from me!
Pft. The contract buyout offer will be so good that you'll be happy to have a new character in Melty Blood named Jon Butters SE who loses every round while attempting to calculate antenna length L.
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Lord DaveGrief CauserBitch Free ZoneRegistered Userregular
Anyway in all seriousness I can genuinely see where fresh new problems can and will crop up when you're suddenly rich but between anonymity (granted, I'm not sure how many places in the States allow that), measured spending (...or secret, like doing nothing but blowing cash via Kickstarter) and my own current position of being constantly unable to do half the things I want to do I find it impossible to imagine it being a step down in terms of quality of life
Finally a problem the 1% and the 99% can share alike. Rationalizing how much better it is to be poor!
I'd fly to Switzerland. Get so pumped full of fetal stem cells that I turn into some kind of horrible mutant hybrid and rampage across the world throwing lavish parties and fucking any hole that stood still for 10 seconds.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Life is probably better when rich, just not suddenly rich.
If I came into that money, I'd probably take half of it and donate it to charities across the board, keep maybe a million for immediate spending funtimes like most folks here are talking about, set up a stipend account that opens up about 100k a year for spending and not a dime more, and put the rest in an untouchable trust for my kids and grand-kids and great-grandkids when the reach 30 or some such and never talk about it again.
I'd fly to Switzerland. Get so pumped full of fetal stem cells that I turn into some kind of horrible mutant hybrid and rampage across the world throwing lavish parties and fucking any hole that stood still for 10 seconds.
I would buy thousands of run down piece of crap cars and a helicopter to air lift a one out to me whenever the one I was driving broke down. Cars are biodegradable, right?
every discussion about the lottery has got to have one goose that makes this fucking comment
it's not an original thought, it reeks of condescension, and most people who've bought lottery tickets realize that their odds of winning aren't exactly great
i don't see anybody busting your balls for whatever stupid way you choose to waste a few bucks
Also, at this prize level one can make a pretty convincing argument that buying a ticket (though just one...two if it rolls over again) is a statistically rational decision.
Something something expected value.
Yup! I think the EV of a $1 ticket is something like $1.00001 right now or something.
Actually it's more like $3.66 (ignoring the issues of annualized installments/taxes/half up front/split jackpot, etc). $640M/ (1 in 175M chance at jackpot)
Suppose you had access once a day to a ‘sure thing’ that won 2/3 of the time, and paid $2 when you bet $1. And suppose you had $100 to start, and you bet 1$ every day.
You would make $1 a day on average. (2 times out of 3 you would win $2, the third time you would lose $1. You made $3, or $1 a day). If you bet 1% of your bankroll every day, you would make 1% per day. Not bad, but not really maximizing your 100% edge.
Suppose you bet your whole bankroll every day. Your expected value every day is now +$100, instead of $1. But eventually you will lose your whole bankroll, and then you won’t be able to play again. As time goes to infinity, your expected growth rate approaches zero.
The Kelly Criterion, created by John Kelly in the 50s at Bell Labs, tells you how much you should bet to maximize your return. The amount is edge / odds. Here, the edge is 1 – you win on average, 100% of your bet each day. The odds you are offered are 2:1. You should bet 1/2 of your stack each time.
If you do, the following should hold
Your long run growth rate is maximized
Your long run growth rate is e(1/3) ln(1/2) * (2/3) ln(2)-1 = 26% per day
(1/3 of the time the outcome is you end up with 1/2 of your bankroll, 2/3 of the time you double your bankroll)
At any time, you have (1-p) probability of going below fraction p of your bankroll at some point in the future. For example, you have a 1/2 chance of losing 1/2 of your bankroll, a 10% chance of losing 90% of your bankroll.
[...]
Now let’s suppose there is a $200m jackpot (in present value, after all expenses and taxes), and you have 1/100m chance of winning.
What is the appropriate amount to bet? The expected value is about 2x the bet. Your edge is about 100%. The odds posted are 200,000,000:1 . So your optimal bet is approximately 1 / 200,000,000 of your stash. If you have $200,000,000, you should bet $1, if you have $100,000, you should bet 1/20th of a cent.
What is your expected growth rate if you have $100,000 and you bet $1? Plugging in the formula from 2 above, you are betting .001% of your bankroll, and your expected return is -.000992% (almost the entire bet).
Still, if you support the causes that the lottery funds (ie, the education system in California) it's not the World's Greatest Crime to play the lottery. I mean, I bought four tickets because a) it's fun to think about, despite the fact that I know with virtual certainty I won't win b) I do in fact support the education system and most importantly c) I had four of those useless dollar coins sitting around from the last time I went to the post office and it was the perfect chance to dispose of them.
The GeekOh-Two Crew, OmeganautRegistered User, ClubPAregular
This reminds me of an idea I had for a pretty terrible movie. It's plays of an old existing property and could be modernized and made "fresh" for the current generation, so even though it would be a pretty terrible movie, I'm sure Hollywood would jump on the chance.
Brewster's Billions
It would star Chris Tucker as a long-lost nephew of Richard Pryor's character from Brewster's Millions. The plot would be essentially the same.
every discussion about the lottery has got to have one goose that makes this fucking comment
it's not an original thought, it reeks of condescension, and most people who've bought lottery tickets realize that their odds of winning aren't exactly great
i don't see anybody busting your balls for whatever stupid way you choose to waste a few bucks
Also, at this prize level one can make a pretty convincing argument that buying a ticket (though just one...two if it rolls over again) is a statistically rational decision.
Something something expected value.
Yup! I think the EV of a $1 ticket is something like $1.00001 right now or something.
Actually it's more like $3.66 (ignoring the issues of annualized installments/taxes/half up front/split jackpot, etc). $640M/ (1 in 175M chance at jackpot)
Suppose you had access once a day to a ‘sure thing’ that won 2/3 of the time, and paid $2 when you bet $1. And suppose you had $100 to start, and you bet 1$ every day.
You would make $1 a day on average. (2 times out of 3 you would win $2, the third time you would lose $1. You made $3, or $1 a day). If you bet 1% of your bankroll every day, you would make 1% per day. Not bad, but not really maximizing your 100% edge.
Suppose you bet your whole bankroll every day. Your expected value every day is now +$100, instead of $1. But eventually you will lose your whole bankroll, and then you won’t be able to play again. As time goes to infinity, your expected growth rate approaches zero.
The Kelly Criterion, created by John Kelly in the 50s at Bell Labs, tells you how much you should bet to maximize your return. The amount is edge / odds. Here, the edge is 1 – you win on average, 100% of your bet each day. The odds you are offered are 2:1. You should bet 1/2 of your stack each time.
If you do, the following should hold
Your long run growth rate is maximized
Your long run growth rate is e(1/3) ln(1/2) * (2/3) ln(2)-1 = 26% per day
(1/3 of the time the outcome is you end up with 1/2 of your bankroll, 2/3 of the time you double your bankroll)
At any time, you have (1-p) probability of going below fraction p of your bankroll at some point in the future. For example, you have a 1/2 chance of losing 1/2 of your bankroll, a 10% chance of losing 90% of your bankroll.
[...]
Now let’s suppose there is a $200m jackpot (in present value, after all expenses and taxes), and you have 1/100m chance of winning.
What is the appropriate amount to bet? The expected value is about 2x the bet. Your edge is about 100%. The odds posted are 200,000,000:1 . So your optimal bet is approximately 1 / 200,000,000 of your stash. If you have $200,000,000, you should bet $1, if you have $100,000, you should bet 1/20th of a cent.
What is your expected growth rate if you have $100,000 and you bet $1? Plugging in the formula from 2 above, you are betting .001% of your bankroll, and your expected return is -.000992% (almost the entire bet).
Still, if you support the causes that the lottery funds (ie, the education system in California) it's not the World's Greatest Crime to play the lottery. I mean, I bought four tickets because a) it's fun to think about, despite the fact that I know with virtual certainty I won't win b) I do in fact support the education system and most importantly c) I had four of those useless dollar coins sitting around from the last time I went to the post office and it was the perfect chance to dispose of them.
It's more fun if you don't completely solve the problem :P
But yeah, the situation is the same here vis-a-vis education, and I only bought one ticket (actually the first one I've ever bought), so yeah. I'd be thrilled to beat the 1:40 odds to get my $1 back
a5ehren on
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Sara LynnI can handle myself.Registered Userregular
I'd throw a giant city-wide party for the release of Marina and the Diamond's new album next month.
NO ONE WILL BE SAFE
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nevilleThe Worst Gay(Seriously. The Worst!)Registered Userregular
I'd fly out everyone from SE++ for a big party.
Then hire goons to punch people I don't like.
I'd drop some cash for a sequel to Deadly Premonition.
Start smoking weed again because drug test who cares?
Form some sort of company/business, how ever benign, with friends because that's always been an awesome idea.
Find a way to make a car play LP's without any danger to the vinyl.
Burn the DMV to the ground.
I always wanna play the lost numbers in the lotto, but then even if I won I'd have to split it with a few hundred other nerds and that's just no fun at all.
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You already have a sponsor, you little shit! He'd have to buy you from me!
Woe is me. Signed my soul off so readily, did I...
Pft. The contract buyout offer will be so good that you'll be happy to have a new character in Melty Blood named Jon Butters SE who loses every round while attempting to calculate antenna length L.
Finally a problem the 1% and the 99% can share alike. Rationalizing how much better it is to be poor!
If I came into that money, I'd probably take half of it and donate it to charities across the board, keep maybe a million for immediate spending funtimes like most folks here are talking about, set up a stipend account that opens up about 100k a year for spending and not a dime more, and put the rest in an untouchable trust for my kids and grand-kids and great-grandkids when the reach 30 or some such and never talk about it again.
I stand still an awful lot.
"I spent 90% of my money on women, drink and fast cars...The rest I squandered"
I would buy thousands of run down piece of crap cars and a helicopter to air lift a one out to me whenever the one I was driving broke down. Cars are biodegradable, right?
Steam - Wildschwein | The Backlog
Grappling Hook Showdown - Tumblr
Coran Attack!
My best case scenario is it would have NASA trending worldwide, perhaps, if I told everyone that's what I plan to do with half of it.
Coran Attack!
Coran Attack!
Goddammit. Well I'd pay to be the 500th person so I could tell him to suck it
Coran Attack!
Are we still talking about what we'd do with $640 Mill? I can't see beyond all this blind red rage.
Good. Good. Let the rage flow through you.
With every moment you become more the DMV's servant.
Actually it's more like $3.66 (ignoring the issues of annualized installments/taxes/half up front/split jackpot, etc). $640M/ (1 in 175M chance at jackpot)
Of course, it's still not a rational decision due to the fact that most players have a low bankroll. See here: http://blog.streeteye.com/blog/2011/11/why-only-millionaires-should-play-powerball/
Still, if you support the causes that the lottery funds (ie, the education system in California) it's not the World's Greatest Crime to play the lottery. I mean, I bought four tickets because a) it's fun to think about, despite the fact that I know with virtual certainty I won't win b) I do in fact support the education system and most importantly c) I had four of those useless dollar coins sitting around from the last time I went to the post office and it was the perfect chance to dispose of them.
Oh sure, you could burn down the DMV. Except, you're in the wrong line for it!
It knows the tricks. Its unkillable.
Steam - Wildschwein | The Backlog
Grappling Hook Showdown - Tumblr
Brewster's Billions
It would star Chris Tucker as a long-lost nephew of Richard Pryor's character from Brewster's Millions. The plot would be essentially the same.
That's a free one, Hollywood. You're welcome.
i came skipping into this thread ready to make this reference
STEAM!
I'd also buy a giant mechanical spider
I don't think you can donate directly to a government agency, just to the US Treasury.
You can all fight him naked for it while I watch, reclining on a puppy skin chaise.
Naked.
"Think of it as Evolution in Action"
that was hilarious
STEAM!
within three minutes hed be sitting on a throne of bone
It's more fun if you don't completely solve the problem :P
But yeah, the situation is the same here vis-a-vis education, and I only bought one ticket (actually the first one I've ever bought), so yeah. I'd be thrilled to beat the 1:40 odds to get my $1 back
NO ONE WILL BE SAFE
Then hire goons to punch people I don't like.
Just kidding. There's nobody I dislike here!
Hahaha. That's funny.
Start smoking weed again because drug test who cares?
Form some sort of company/business, how ever benign, with friends because that's always been an awesome idea.
Find a way to make a car play LP's without any danger to the vinyl.
Burn the DMV to the ground.
Joke's on you, years of CA congressional gridlock and budget failure already did that!
STEAM!
STEAM!
steam | Dokkan: 868846562