Just a clarification point Squashua, we do not get our results by pm, the results are all posted in the narration and it doesn't say whose results they are. If three people seer me, you will get three vision results of me, nothing more.
That said, do you still suggest we follow a 3 vision per person plan? I guess I don't see what we will gain out of this.
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
edited September 2007
I'm actually kind of lost as to the benefit of that plan, Squashy, it just seems too easy for the baddies to slip through it.
Just a clarification point Squashua, we do not get our results by pm, the results are all posted in the narration and it doesn't say whose results they are. If three people seer me, you will get three vision results of me, nothing more.
That said, do you still suggest we follow a 3 vision per person plan?
Sorry, Drez, but you are coming off as a major jerk.
Hey now, we don't want to get into this again. ;-)
Drez did come off as suspicious though, because he is normally much more detail oriented (as Ardor has pointed out), and I would vote for him now based on that if I weren't keeping Blarney up as a good 2nd place candidate.
Yeah Squash, I thought of that plan, but the loss of private result PMs kill it dead. At least we know you're a probable good guy so you'll live longer.
I like the 'everyone seers themselves' plan, because it's nice and simple and it doesn't look like the bad guys can do too much to cock it up. I'm not at the keyboard too much today, so don't switch the plan on me
Hey. Hey. Seering ourselves was originally my idea. Or, at least I was the first to say anything about it. Same thing, right?
Some people seem to be quite worried about the baddies getting more information than the village from the seering results using the "seer ourselves" plan, rather than alternative plans like "seer in cycle" or "double up seerings". Hate to break it to you, but the baddies already have more information than we do. Although there is still uncertainty in which of the two outside their group are the rival baddie faction to make things interesting, they have a lot less variance in the role probabilities for 14 players, and no variance for 2 players (i.e. their group). Because of this knowledge, and the ability to manipulate their seering results, "seer in cycle" and "double up seering" have the potential to give the baddies more information than the village can obtain. With "seering ourselves" on night 1, the village gets almost the same amount of information as the baddie group, which is really the best we can do. There's no way we can avoid giving away information to the baddies, since they're in a privileged position, so we gotta do the best we can, yes?
Also, is Drez really dropping from the game?
EDIT: Seering ourselves twice doesn't do anything. It will just give back the same results as the first, as seer natures are deterministic, and not probabilistic.
OK, so let's say I just broke the game by saying everyone seer yourself.
That's 12 seers.
What do the 4 bad guys get?
If they get nothing, then the 12 targets that get seered tonight are obviously the good guys.
So either (1) we can't seer ourselves or (2) the bad guys MUST get SOMETHING, otherwise this is a loss.
Assuming we CAN seer ourselves, I'm going to guess (using prior Phallas, such as in Phallanoia where the bad guys got FAKE "Zaps") that the Bad Guys get to place a 1 FAKE SEER per player. Basically, they get to bullshit up a seer on anyone with whatever they want (guilty or innocent) as the result.
It's the only logical tactic I can guess that the badguys would have.
That's not true at all, Squash. The Insane seers seer the opposite of what the players are. Thus, the 12 players who are actually seers will be able to narrow down what their actual seering role is by seering themselves. If they seer themselves innocent, they are either a real or a naive seer. If they seer themselves guilty, they are either a paranoid or an insane seer. Seering yourself twice would just be a waste.
I think B:L's plan (seer the person below you on the playerlist) would benefit the village the most for night 2.
Squashua you are also being stupidly unobservant. All of the baddies can fake a seering and it's result. That was one of the first things we established. Did you read the thread at all?
I'm guessing that, because of the crazy seers, we may have to seer ourselves 2x in a row to prove ourselves.
WUT.
We will need a second plan for tomorrow, we may want to discuss options tonight so when some of us die innocent, the living can realize we weren't trying to fool anyone.
Realistically, we should get 8 results of good guys and 8 results of bad guys tonight, my earlier estimation was off because I'm dumb.
The only reason this might help us find bad guys, would be allowing us to vote for someone in the lesser group. 3 people should die tonight, so whichever group, innocent or guilty, has less people in it, we have a higher chance of stabbing a bad guy in it.
If we're lucky, we might have 8 guilty left and 5 innocents, then we know there's a 40% chance (2/5) of voting off a bad guy in the innocent group. Etc.
If we're lucky, we might have 8 guilty left and 5 innocents, then we know there's a 40% chance (2/5) of voting off a bad guy in the innocent group. Etc.
With two bad guys groups, it would be amusing if they hit each other.
If we're lucky, we might have 8 guilty left and 5 innocents, then we know there's a 40% chance (2/5) of voting off a bad guy in the innocent group. Etc.
With two bad guys groups, it would be amusing if they hit each other.
Yeah, I stared at that one for a while...one because of the tattoo, two because the dress she's wearing is cutting her boobs into quarters and making me go O_o whaddafuck?
Alright then Grundy which hideous freak of nature are you
Yeah, I stared at that one for a while...one because of the tattoo, two because the dress she's wearing is cutting her boobs into quarters and making me go O_o whaddafuck?
Alright then Grundy which hideous freak of nature are you
Nah, I normally don't take pictures of myself but heres one from my friends album. It's at the late night dance and I am completely wasted, but I couldn't really find any good ones of myself :P
Oh, we are. I just have two votes on me right now and don't feel like getting voted out Night 1.
Since when do people vote for me, anyways? That's not supposed to be the way things work with me.
Also, Ardor has been getting more than his fair share of evil roles lately, but I'm just too trusting of him. As much as we'd all like to knock him off.
Posts
I'm outing myself today. It's a bold move.
I'm the seer.
There are 16 of us.
There are 4 bad guys.
Plan:
We break up into 5 groups of 3 and each group chooses someone different to seer,
then we compare notes by PM'ing the results to the target.
Odd man out picks someone at random.
And we start straight down the list; players 1-5, and we out our results.
Group 1 - SEER B:L (Player 4)
Hakkekage
Fembot
Zot
GROUP 2 - SEER Hakkekage (Player 1)
B:L
DevoutlyApathetic
Drez
GROUP 3 - SEER Fembot (Player 2)
Bliss 101
thorgot
PRËTËNTIÖüS
GROUP 4 - SEER Zot (Player 3)
Squashua
Aldo
MrBallbaggins
GROUP 5 - SEER DevoutlyApathetic (Player 5)
Ardor
TehSpectre
FunkyWaltDogg
GROUP 6 - SEER Drez (Player 6) or Whomever
MrBlarney
- - - -
Anyone? Plan?
That said, do you still suggest we follow a 3 vision per person plan? I guess I don't see what we will gain out of this.
Also dammit you guys I did the outing joke first
you charlatans
NNID: Hakkekage
No.
I have an idea. Everyone seer yourself for win!
Drez did come off as suspicious though, because he is normally much more detail oriented (as Ardor has pointed out), and I would vote for him now based on that if I weren't keeping Blarney up as a good 2nd place candidate.
Yeah Squash, I thought of that plan, but the loss of private result PMs kill it dead. At least we know you're a probable good guy so you'll live longer.
Non-private results is reminding me of Drez's phalla.
I don't know who to vote for, so I'm doing the Fembot dance... !vote Squashua
I like the 'everyone seers themselves' plan, because it's nice and simple and it doesn't look like the bad guys can do too much to cock it up. I'm not at the keyboard too much today, so don't switch the plan on me
Honestly, that's really the only way to do it, and anyone that doesn't go along with it could be considered a bad guy.
Of course, coming up with this plan late doesn't help anyone.
Some people seem to be quite worried about the baddies getting more information than the village from the seering results using the "seer ourselves" plan, rather than alternative plans like "seer in cycle" or "double up seerings". Hate to break it to you, but the baddies already have more information than we do. Although there is still uncertainty in which of the two outside their group are the rival baddie faction to make things interesting, they have a lot less variance in the role probabilities for 14 players, and no variance for 2 players (i.e. their group). Because of this knowledge, and the ability to manipulate their seering results, "seer in cycle" and "double up seering" have the potential to give the baddies more information than the village can obtain. With "seering ourselves" on night 1, the village gets almost the same amount of information as the baddie group, which is really the best we can do. There's no way we can avoid giving away information to the baddies, since they're in a privileged position, so we gotta do the best we can, yes?
Also, is Drez really dropping from the game?
EDIT: Seering ourselves twice doesn't do anything. It will just give back the same results as the first, as seer natures are deterministic, and not probabilistic.
That's 12 seers.
What do the 4 bad guys get?
If they get nothing, then the 12 targets that get seered tonight are obviously the good guys.
So either (1) we can't seer ourselves or (2) the bad guys MUST get SOMETHING, otherwise this is a loss.
Assuming we CAN seer ourselves, I'm going to guess (using prior Phallas, such as in Phallanoia where the bad guys got FAKE "Zaps") that the Bad Guys get to place a 1 FAKE SEER per player. Basically, they get to bullshit up a seer on anyone with whatever they want (guilty or innocent) as the result.
It's the only logical tactic I can guess that the badguys would have.
I think B:L's plan (seer the person below you on the playerlist) would benefit the village the most for night 2.
Squashua you are also being stupidly unobservant. All of the baddies can fake a seering and it's result. That was one of the first things we established. Did you read the thread at all?
We will need a second plan for tomorrow, we may want to discuss options tonight so when some of us die innocent, the living can realize we weren't trying to fool anyone.
Ack. Ignore that. I thought we had RANDOM Seers.
You know, a seer that would "seer" someone and get a random result. I misread the OP.
No, actually I didn't. I almost never do. I've proved this time and time again.
EDIT OK, I've read it now. About 70-or-so posts to slog through, but I've got it. Seer-self is on; Vote-self is on. All is good.
The only reason this might help us find bad guys, would be allowing us to vote for someone in the lesser group. 3 people should die tonight, so whichever group, innocent or guilty, has less people in it, we have a higher chance of stabbing a bad guy in it.
If we're lucky, we might have 8 guilty left and 5 innocents, then we know there's a 40% chance (2/5) of voting off a bad guy in the innocent group. Etc.
With two bad guys groups, it would be amusing if they hit each other.
I would agree.
Bad guys, strike each other and earn cookies!
Optimism!
Winning be default is still winning in my book.
I'm not proud.
Actually, I got up to 5. That doesn't quite work in the rhyming scheme, though.
Actions taken earlier by Drez are still valid. Votes made earlier against Drez are now considered to be against Grundlterror.
It's your turn now!
Hey guys check out these cute girls at our party at Dragon*Con!
Keep me around! I'm cool!
Skanky BOOB girl has a Serenity Tattoo - jeez. Thought it was a third nipple.
Yeah, I stared at that one for a while...one because of the tattoo, two because the dress she's wearing is cutting her boobs into quarters and making me go O_o whaddafuck?
Alright then Grundy which hideous freak of nature are you
Is this you, Mr Evil McDemoneyes?
NNID: Hakkekage
Nah, I normally don't take pictures of myself but heres one from my friends album. It's at the late night dance and I am completely wasted, but I couldn't really find any good ones of myself :P
Quite hideous
W....what could I have ever done to deserve this?
Hehe I do remember this
Curse my wretched luck!
*Shakes fist*
It's a guilty pleasure now it seems.
Drez's vote for me carries to Grundlterror, so...
I !retract my vote from B:L and I !vote for Grundlterror. Don't ask me why.
Since when do people vote for me, anyways? That's not supposed to be the way things work with me.
Also, Ardor has been getting more than his fair share of evil roles lately, but I'm just too trusting of him. As much as we'd all like to knock him off.
That's why I trust him.