Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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  • XantomasXantomas Heat level critical. Thermal threshold exceeded. Shutdown sequence initiated. Shutdown sequence ov.. Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Tox wrote: »
    https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/10/3/21500538/regal-cineworld-theaters-shut-down-james-bond-us-uk
    Cineworld, owner of the largest chain of theaters in the UK and Ireland and the second-largest in the United States — Regal Cinemas — will reportedly close all its theaters next week, according to Variety, The Sunday Times, and others.

    Variety reports that all 543 theaters in the US will be closed, which account for the chain’s 7,000+ screens in the region. The Sunday Times reports that it will close all 128 theaters in the UK and Ireland, too.

    Both say James Bond is the reason.

    Yesterday, the 25th James Bond film — No Time to Die — was pushed back to April 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic, denying theaters one of the last major tentpole releases due out this year. Apparently, theaters were counting on Bond, specifically, to arrive on time and help bail them out of poor ticket sales.

    Shit. I thought this was just another temporary cessation, but it definitely reads like "Welp, we're closing up shop permanently."

    The follow on effects are going to be significant. Studios relied on mass cinema screenings to recover the 9 figure debts these movies rack up, and they don't seem confident they can recover them through PPV/streaming.

    Which means movie funding, especially for blockbuster types, will be at risk unless someone buys out Cineworld.

    Aren't there laws that studios can't own cinemas? Cause that'd be the simplest fix, but that has its own issues.

    In the US, those laws have already been overturned, because Disney needs ever more marketshare.

    Really wish there was a way to tag an Awesome as sarcastic.

    Then again, when I play BattleTech, my Awesomes are always sarcastic. And blasting PPC's.

    It's the only way to Awesome!

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Israel's hospital system is on the verge of collapse as record numbers of cases and record numbers of hospitalizations overwhelm the system already overstretched and undersupplied after the last several months of pandemic. Netanyahu has been blaming protesters for the spread and has been trying to ban protests (and also delay his own corruption trial), but cases are being driven by the ultra-Orthodox. The Ultra-Orthodox got special dispensations to attend synagogues in person, en masse, and without mask mandates, and they've generally been like every single extremist religious group in the world during the pandemic - extremely non-compliant, refusing to let the rules apply to them and believing they would just be protected. And they're basically the most stalwart of Netanyahu's base, so he just lets them do whatever they want, and that's being plague vectors.

    The virus gives no damns about anyone's religious beliefs.

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  • dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    The guidelines from the CDC re-changed to what they claimed was a mistakenly posted draft a few weeks ago and then pulled.

    Precautions surrounding the possibility of aerosol and spreading at distances greater than 6 feet are back.

    I really wish I trusted the CDC.

    Commander ZoomTetraNitroCubaneAbsoluteZeroMr RayTaramoorMayabirdLikeaBosh
  • MuddBuddMuddBudd Registered User regular
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    The guidelines from the CDC re-changed to what they claimed was a mistakenly posted draft a few weeks ago and then pulled.

    Precautions surrounding the possibility of aerosol and spreading at distances greater than 6 feet are back.

    I really wish I trusted the CDC.

    The CDC is very much a canary in the coal mine (as are a few other groups) on what happens when we stop being able to trust our own organizations.

    I'm not sure if they weakened it over the last four years, or if the people in charge just dismantled it all at once when Coronavirus became a thing.

    There's no plan, there's no race to be run
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  • FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    The guidelines from the CDC re-changed to what they claimed was a mistakenly posted draft a few weeks ago and then pulled.

    Precautions surrounding the possibility of aerosol and spreading at distances greater than 6 feet are back.

    I really wish I trusted the CDC.

    The CDC is very much a canary in the coal mine (as are a few other groups) on what happens when we stop being able to trust our own organizations.

    I'm not sure if they weakened it over the last four years, or if the people in charge just dismantled it all at once when Coronavirus became a thing.

    Dig into articles from the last 4 years. It's been a deliberate weakening over time. Even back in 2018 commentators warned that trump administration policy and budget would weaken the CDCs ability to combat a future pandemic or even "an unusually harsh influenza season".

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/10/3/21500538/regal-cineworld-theaters-shut-down-james-bond-us-uk
    Cineworld, owner of the largest chain of theaters in the UK and Ireland and the second-largest in the United States — Regal Cinemas — will reportedly close all its theaters next week, according to Variety, The Sunday Times, and others.

    Variety reports that all 543 theaters in the US will be closed, which account for the chain’s 7,000+ screens in the region. The Sunday Times reports that it will close all 128 theaters in the UK and Ireland, too.

    Both say James Bond is the reason.

    Yesterday, the 25th James Bond film — No Time to Die — was pushed back to April 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic, denying theaters one of the last major tentpole releases due out this year. Apparently, theaters were counting on Bond, specifically, to arrive on time and help bail them out of poor ticket sales.

    They've confirmed this is a temporary closure, FYI

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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    One of the last few truly SARS2-free places just had its first case: the Solomon Islands. A student who had tested negative three times before a repatriation flight ended up testing positive after landing. Only a few other Pacific island nations remain completely free from the virus and have been maintaining strict border controls to do so. [Of course, a few countries have no internal transmission, just cases caught in quarantine at the borders. Turkmenistan and North Korea continue to insist that they are free of cases; they are lying.]

    Sweden has been running wastewater tests of municipal sewage to detect SARS2 since April. And it seems the second wave is starting in Stockholm. Cases are going up and so is the amount of coronavirus in the sewage.

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Top U.S. military leaders, including chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are quarantining after being exposed to the virus.
    Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, along with several of the Pentagon’s most senior uniformed leaders, are quarantining after being exposed to the coronavirus, a Defense Department official said on Tuesday.

    The official said almost the entirety of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including Gen. James C. McConville, the Army chief of staff, are quarantining after Adm. Charles Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, tested positive for coronavirus.

    “We are aware that Vice Commandant Ray has tested positive for Covid-19 and that he was at the Pentagon last week for meetings with other senior military leaders,” Jonathan Hoffman, the Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement released by his office.

    “Out of an abundance of caution, all potential close contacts from these meetings are self-quarantining and have been tested this morning,” he added. “No Pentagon contacts have exhibited symptoms and we have no additional positive tests to report at this time.”

    US top brass are in quarantine now.

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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Commander ZoomSmrtnikCelestialBadgerCalicaMrVyngaard
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Maybe we shouldn't have fucked around and put a bunch of idiots in charge of our everything.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    edited October 6
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Unfortunately Hail Hydra or Praise Nurgle aren't options.

    At least the US military hopefully has a solid set of contingency plans for something like this.

    daveNYC on
    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Maybe we shouldn't have fucked around and put a bunch of idiots in charge of our everything.

    I mean, dunno about you but I certainly didn't.

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  • JedocJedoc Bringing the past to life so we can beat it to death with a shovelRegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Unfortunately Hail Hydra or Praise Nurgle aren't options.

    At least the US military hopefully has a solid set of contingency plans for something like this.

    You say that, until the Secretary of Agriculture accidentally declares war on Bermuda next week.

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    CelestialBadgerSleepJaysonFour
  • HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Why would we be unprepared? As noted they have deputies, but they are just quarantined, not incapacitated. With modern tech this should barely slow them down for most things.

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  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    The US military is likely prepared to keep things running in the event of a nuclear weapon hitting the Pentagon with no warning this afternoon, much less individual commanders falling ill. It sucks for the JCS and those immediately around them, of course, but it's not the same kind of Dire Institutional Threat that the fiasco currently chewing on the White House is.

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  • DecomposeyDecomposey Registered User regular
    Yeah, they may not even be sick. They just came into contact with someone who tested positive, and so quarantined themselves until they know if they are sick or not. Y'know, that thing you are supposed to do that other people who shall remain nameless don't.

    Before following any advice, opinions, or thoughts I may have expressed in the above post, be warned: I found Keven Costners "Waterworld" to be a very entertaining film.
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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Jedoc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Unfortunately Hail Hydra or Praise Nurgle aren't options.

    At least the US military hopefully has a solid set of contingency plans for something like this.

    You say that, until the Secretary of Agriculture accidentally declares war on Bermuda next week.

    As long as we immediately surrender and welcome our new shorts wearing overlords with open arms, I'd be OK with that.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
    BlackDragon480JaysonFourCaptain InertiaRingoGiantGeek2020
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Decomposey wrote: »
    Yeah, they may not even be sick. They just came into contact with someone who tested positive, and so quarantined themselves until they know if they are sick or not. Y'know, that thing you are supposed to do that other people who shall remain nameless don't.

    The military probably has actual procedures to follow so they don't get things like entire bases falling sick at once.

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Decomposey wrote: »
    Yeah, they may not even be sick. They just came into contact with someone who tested positive, and so quarantined themselves until they know if they are sick or not. Y'know, that thing you are supposed to do that other people who shall remain nameless don't.

    The military probably has actual procedures to follow so they don't get things like entire bases falling sick at once.

    But what about their precious freedoms! The soldiers must be allowed to exercise their constitutional right to lick each other!

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • DecomposeyDecomposey Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Decomposey wrote: »
    Yeah, they may not even be sick. They just came into contact with someone who tested positive, and so quarantined themselves until they know if they are sick or not. Y'know, that thing you are supposed to do that other people who shall remain nameless don't.

    The military probably has actual procedures to follow so they don't get things like entire bases falling sick at once.

    But what about their precious freedoms! The soldiers must be allowed to exercise their constitutional right to lick each other!

    Hahaha silly, soldiers don't have rights.

    Before following any advice, opinions, or thoughts I may have expressed in the above post, be warned: I found Keven Costners "Waterworld" to be a very entertaining film.
    dispatch.oRingoLucedesStabbity StyleIncenjucarFencingsaxSmrtnikKayne Red Robe
  • Doctor DetroitDoctor Detroit Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Decomposey wrote: »
    Yeah, they may not even be sick. They just came into contact with someone who tested positive, and so quarantined themselves until they know if they are sick or not. Y'know, that thing you are supposed to do that other people who shall remain nameless don't.

    The military probably has actual procedures to follow so they don't get things like entire bases falling sick at once.

    But what about their precious freedoms! The soldiers must be allowed to exercise their constitutional right to lick each other!

    Don’t ask, don’t tell.

    BlackDragon480
  • RingoRingo HE KEEPS REPEATING THE LINE I'M GONNA CRY BLEASE LET HIM LIVE YOU MADE ME WATCH SO MUCH KISSING IN THIS FILM LET INIGO LIVERegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Jedoc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Unfortunately Hail Hydra or Praise Nurgle aren't options.

    At least the US military hopefully has a solid set of contingency plans for something like this.

    You say that, until the Secretary of Agriculture accidentally declares war on Bermuda next week.

    As long as we immediately surrender and welcome our new shorts wearing overlords with open arms, I'd be OK with that.

    "And then America disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle!" is one of those twist series finales that seems completely out of left field, yet long time viewers are satisfied with the outcome

    Sterica wrote: »
    I know my last visit to my grandpa on his deathbed was to find out how the whole Nazi werewolf thing turned out.
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    In Iran, non-emergency patients may no longer be admitted to hospitals or hospitalized. The hospitals, especially in Tehran, are completely overwhelmed by COVID patients. The third wave there seems to be worse than the first two, and far worse than what the official numbers state (as I've been screaming into the wind this whole time).


    BNO News wrote:
    Argentina COVID update:

    - New cases: 10,324
    - Positivity rate: 72.5%
    - New deaths: 287
    - In hospital: 28,298 (+135)
    - ICU: 4,237 (+37)

    BNO News needs some kind of award for all this work they've been doing. Unsure what award, but something.

    Yeah, somehow (which is to say, not testing enough) Argentina just blew past Mexico's abysmal positivity rate (which has lowered itself to merely the high 40% range, instead of above 50%) to become something that's basically just me screaming incoherently into the wind. But Mexico still has the higher excess death rate, with excess deaths for the year well over 100,000 by the start of August, a number still significantly above the official death toll (which puts Mexico fourth-worst-hit in the world).

    Aaaaaand the excess death amount for the US by August was 280,000, also quite a bit above the official death toll, for all those people (probably not posting here) claiming that the numbers of deaths from the pandemic are inflated and those people would've died anyway, etc etc.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Czech Republic is in the boned zone. 8600 new cases on Friday, which is enough for first place on the per-capita list for Europe I think. Blah blah blah shutting things down and all that, but way the hell to late at this point. We're going to max out our hospital beds in a week or two, which is when the dying will start to get really bad.

    Things were getting worse towards the end of the summer, but we're in full on out of control exponential spread at the moment. Not sure how much was the weather getting cooler and driving people to indoor activities or if the schools reopening (seriously, has that managed to not be a shit show anywhere?) was what flipped the table.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Czech Republic is in the boned zone. 8600 new cases on Friday, which is enough for first place on the per-capita list for Europe I think. Blah blah blah shutting things down and all that, but way the hell to late at this point. We're going to max out our hospital beds in a week or two, which is when the dying will start to get really bad.

    Things were getting worse towards the end of the summer, but we're in full on out of control exponential spread at the moment. Not sure how much was the weather getting cooler and driving people to indoor activities or if the schools reopening (seriously, has that managed to not be a shit show anywhere?) was what flipped the table.

    Ummm... New Zealand? :)

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  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Czech Republic is in the boned zone. 8600 new cases on Friday, which is enough for first place on the per-capita list for Europe I think. Blah blah blah shutting things down and all that, but way the hell to late at this point. We're going to max out our hospital beds in a week or two, which is when the dying will start to get really bad.

    Things were getting worse towards the end of the summer, but we're in full on out of control exponential spread at the moment. Not sure how much was the weather getting cooler and driving people to indoor activities or if the schools reopening (seriously, has that managed to not be a shit show anywhere?) was what flipped the table.

    Ummm... New Zealand? :)

    Also, correlation is not causation. Universities have demonstrated significant outbreak potential, although testing has suppressed spread at many of them in the US combined with tighter socialization controls after many early failures. Conversely, I am not aware of any studies showing significant transmission caused by schools. Studies are showing that children can infect others, but not as competently as adults, with the latter apparantly especially true for younger children.

    The kids aren't to blame. The adults and their behavior are. Bars and restaurants are what is getting you. Again and again. Everywhere. Schools likely aren't helping, but if you closed the bars etc the schools would probably be fine. The invese is not true though.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited October 12
    tbloxham wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Czech Republic is in the boned zone. 8600 new cases on Friday, which is enough for first place on the per-capita list for Europe I think. Blah blah blah shutting things down and all that, but way the hell to late at this point. We're going to max out our hospital beds in a week or two, which is when the dying will start to get really bad.

    Things were getting worse towards the end of the summer, but we're in full on out of control exponential spread at the moment. Not sure how much was the weather getting cooler and driving people to indoor activities or if the schools reopening (seriously, has that managed to not be a shit show anywhere?) was what flipped the table.

    Ummm... New Zealand? :)

    Also, correlation is not causation. Universities have demonstrated significant outbreak potential, although testing has suppressed spread at many of them in the US combined with tighter socialization controls after many early failures. Conversely, I am not aware of any studies showing significant transmission caused by schools. Studies are showing that children can infect others, but not as competently as adults, with the latter apparantly especially true for younger children.

    The kids aren't to blame. The adults and their behavior are. Bars and restaurants are what is getting you. Again and again. Everywhere. Schools likely aren't helping, but if you closed the bars etc the schools would probably be fine. The invese is not true though.

    I'd like a citation on these studies, if you could. Seems contrary to what I've been reading lately. For example, this study published in the journal of Pediatrics at the end of last month.

    The Harvard Gazette did a nice summary
    “I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection,” says Lael Yonker, director of the MGH Cystic Fibrosis Center and lead author of the study. “I was not expecting the viral load to be so high. You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalized patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load.”
    “Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” says Alessio Fasano, director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Research Center at MGH and senior author of the manuscript. “During this COVID-19 pandemic, we have mainly screened symptomatic subjects, so we have reached the erroneous conclusion that the vast majority of people infected are adults. However, our results show that kids are not protected against this virus. We should not discount children as potential spreaders for this virus.”

    The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes. This is a particular concern for families in certain socio-economic groups, which have been harder hit in the pandemic, and multi-generational families with vulnerable older adults in the same household. In the MGHfC study, 51 percent of children with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection came from low-income communities compared to 2 percent from high-income communities.

    The study seems to indicate that children are specifically more prone to spreading the virus, because they can carry a higher viral load and shed a higher quantity of the virus without displaying symptoms that an adult would.

    TetraNitroCubane on
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  • Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    Jedoc wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Call me old fashioned, but is awesoming that news appropriate? It means we are unprepared at all levels for any conflict.

    Unfortunately Hail Hydra or Praise Nurgle aren't options.

    At least the US military hopefully has a solid set of contingency plans for something like this.

    You say that, until the Secretary of Agriculture accidentally declares war on Bermuda next week.

    You joke, but that's how we wound up bombing Nagasaki. Truman's intent for use of the atomic bomb was that every mission would require his explicit order. While he and Marshall were both at Potsdam, the Acting Chief of Staff (who hadn't been in the loop on that) drafted orders for Generals Groves and Spaatz to deliver and drop the first four bombs as they became available. When Truman found out about Nagasaki, he went through the roof, to such a degree that Groves caught wind of it halted shipment of the Demon Core before the orders to do so were received.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Czech Republic is in the boned zone. 8600 new cases on Friday, which is enough for first place on the per-capita list for Europe I think. Blah blah blah shutting things down and all that, but way the hell to late at this point. We're going to max out our hospital beds in a week or two, which is when the dying will start to get really bad.

    Things were getting worse towards the end of the summer, but we're in full on out of control exponential spread at the moment. Not sure how much was the weather getting cooler and driving people to indoor activities or if the schools reopening (seriously, has that managed to not be a shit show anywhere?) was what flipped the table.

    Ummm... New Zealand? :)

    Also, correlation is not causation. Universities have demonstrated significant outbreak potential, although testing has suppressed spread at many of them in the US combined with tighter socialization controls after many early failures. Conversely, I am not aware of any studies showing significant transmission caused by schools. Studies are showing that children can infect others, but not as competently as adults, with the latter apparantly especially true for younger children.

    The kids aren't to blame. The adults and their behavior are. Bars and restaurants are what is getting you. Again and again. Everywhere. Schools likely aren't helping, but if you closed the bars etc the schools would probably be fine. The invese is not true though.

    I'd like a citation on these studies, if you could. Seems contrary to what I've been reading lately. For example, this study published in the journal of Pediatrics at the end of last month.

    The Harvard Gazette did a nice summary
    “I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection,” says Lael Yonker, director of the MGH Cystic Fibrosis Center and lead author of the study. “I was not expecting the viral load to be so high. You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalized patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load.”
    “Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” says Alessio Fasano, director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Research Center at MGH and senior author of the manuscript. “During this COVID-19 pandemic, we have mainly screened symptomatic subjects, so we have reached the erroneous conclusion that the vast majority of people infected are adults. However, our results show that kids are not protected against this virus. We should not discount children as potential spreaders for this virus.”

    The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes. This is a particular concern for families in certain socio-economic groups, which have been harder hit in the pandemic, and multi-generational families with vulnerable older adults in the same household. In the MGHfC study, 51 percent of children with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection came from low-income communities compared to 2 percent from high-income communities.

    The study seems to indicate that children are specifically more prone to spreading the virus, because they can carry a higher viral load and shed a higher quantity of the virus without displaying symptoms that an adult would.

    https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/what-do-we-know-about-children-and-coronavirus-transmission/

    The above is a good summary of a wide variety of sources of information

    Truths, the evidence is strong and can be explicitly proven

    Children can be infected
    Children can have high viral loads in PCR tests
    Children of all ages can infect others

    Observational data from contact tracing

    The best available data shows that children under 10 are less likely to be infected or cause infection
    The risks of both of the latter rise as teenagers become adults.
    Children of any age are not espescially significant as a source of infection, despite day cares, camps and other child care activities being open in the US close to throughout the pandemic

    Schools do count. Having them open drives up Rt. Its just that this is insignificant compared to bars and restaurants being open. What we do know is that children are not the drivers here. There is nothing about their behavior which causes massive levels of transmission in them. Adults and their behaviors drive the infection, with schools possibly providing an undesirable secondary boost if the situation is already out of control.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    Smrtnik
  • MeeqeMeeqe Lord of the pants most fancy Someplace amazingRegistered User regular
    If you're going to cite a random thinktank, please at least cite on with research from after the schools opened. That article is from July.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    And the Czech Republic is locking things down. Restaurants and bars can do take-away and delivery only, and even that needs to close at 20:00. Drinking in public has been outlawed too, which would be more annoying if the weather weren't so cold. Schools are also spinning down, distance learning only, UčíTelka is gonna be rocking it again I guess. Most everything else has already been shut down. The health minister says things need to get under control within the next two weeks, which... that's not how this works. Not with a 5-14 day incubation period and asymptomatic spread.

    Things are gonna get real dark, real soon.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    I can say that following the schools in my area, practically every one that is having in-person classes or even remote learning with in-person athletics has reported multiple cases and / or student to student spread.

    Just looking at the tracker, 26 schools in my state reported new outbreaks in the past 24 hours and 80 have ongoing outbreaks.

    Which actually seems low for the number of local cases being reported.

    Our hospital COVID inpatient cases was approaching 250 at the April peak, was down around 10 for most of the summer, and has ticked back up around 20 the past few reports.

    Bars and restaurants and sporting events being open is stupid, but in-person learning and athletics are also remarkably stupid during a pandemic.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    zagdrob wrote: »
    I can say that following the schools in my area, practically every one that is having in-person classes or even remote learning with in-person athletics has reported multiple cases and / or student to student spread.

    Just looking at the tracker, 26 schools in my state reported new outbreaks in the past 24 hours and 80 have ongoing outbreaks.

    Which actually seems low for the number of local cases being reported.

    Our hospital COVID inpatient cases was approaching 250 at the April peak, was down around 10 for most of the summer, and has ticked back up around 20 the past few reports.

    Bars and restaurants and sporting events being open is stupid, but in-person learning and athletics are also remarkably stupid during a pandemic.

    From everything I have read, there is a nation-wide effort by school administrators to hide and deny covid transmission in their schools. Combine that with the low rates of testing and the general cultural vibe that "It's over", and I expect to see exponential spread start to slam the hospitals soon.

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  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    edited October 13
    bah not an update.
    wrong thread.

    38thDoe on
  • RickRudeRickRude Registered User regular
    A dutch woman just died after catching covid for a 2nd time. This virus gives no fucks about our understanding of immunity. Scary.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/europe/covid-19-dutch-woman-reinfection-death-intl/index.html

    MorganV
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    A dutch woman just died after catching covid for a 2nd time. This virus gives no fucks about our understanding of immunity. Scary.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/europe/covid-19-dutch-woman-reinfection-death-intl/index.html

    From literally the second paragraph of the article:
    The woman, 89, suffered from a rare type of bone marrow cancer called Waldenström's macroglobulinemia. Her immune system was compromised due to the cell-depleting therapy she received, the researchers at Maastricht University Medical Center in the Netherlands wrote in a paper accepted for publication in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

    Take a deep breath.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    8,325 cases yesterday in the Czech Republic. That's going to be the new baseline weekday number for a while, at least until it rampages up into the teens in the next week or two. Don't even ask about the percentage of positive tests.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    On the subject of immunity, we know that COVID-19 isn't going to have permanent immunity and that, while many trials have shown lasting immunity over 3-9 months, it's probably unlikely that any vaccine will last longer than that due to the widespread nature of the illness and its ability to mutate. Most research suggests that COVID immunity will come in the form of seasonal vaccines for a few years until the population infected drops low enough that it no longer has major flareups.

    Mid-2021 will have a bunch of properly trialed vaccines readily available. Probably mid-2023 we'll see the virus mostly gone and life going back to the beforetimes. But we have a bit before we can get to that stage.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited October 14
    Enc wrote: »
    On the subject of immunity, we know that COVID-19 isn't going to have permanent immunity and that, while many trials have shown lasting immunity over 3-9 months, it's probably unlikely that any vaccine will last longer than that due to the widespread nature of the illness and its ability to mutate. Most research suggests that COVID immunity will come in the form of seasonal vaccines for a few years until the population infected drops low enough that it no longer has major flareups.

    Mid-2021 will have a bunch of properly trialed vaccines readily available. Probably mid-2023 we'll see the virus mostly gone and life going back to the beforetimes. But we have a bit before we can get to that stage.

    We dont really know much of anything about how long immunity lasts, how well it works, or how long vaccines can give it to you. Even the other coronaviruses are highly suspect in terms of how often you are reinfected when you dig down into the trials and data.

    However, it seems that most people who are infected have a protective immunity for at least 3 months. It seems there is a chance that some people don't develop humoral immunity, but, again its unknown whether those people just didn't retain it, or relied on innate immunity to clear a very minor infection.

    There are vaccines that are far better than the original disease at giving lasting immunity. Tetanus for example.

    Edit - immunity could certainly be longer than 3 months. We just don't know. And sadly we don't know very well about any other viruses like this either. Papers on the subject present a vast array of estimates based on highly odd studies.

    tbloxham on
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Oklahoma City has run out of ICU beds. Though it's not entirely the fault of people in the city itself - the hospitals are filling up with rural people who won't wear masks because FREEDUM/HOAX/TRUMP but rural areas are also increasingly lacking in their own medical facilities. Oklahoma in general is quickly running out of hospital capacity, just like Wisconsin, which is opening a field hospital.

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