Researching judges is always the worst. This year I lucked out and found our judicial review board site with a description of their process and a list of their recommendations with rationales. Made the whole thing way better.
I leaned on an IN lawyer that I follow on Twitter this year for his advice. It was helpful, so that was nice.
On the other hand though, today I found out that the batshit crazy dude running in my district for state Rep won his primary; I thought he lost! He stamps around the IN statehouse in "bloody" scrubs, screaming about abortion, and sometime recently called the Catholic Church a cult (you'd think that would've sunk him with the churchy fucks where I live, but then I recalled they're all insane Evangelicals).
Hm, Biden to St. Paul tomorrow. Also Iowa and Wisconsin.
Minnesota being squirrely.
I think this is more about not being foolhardy.
Minnesota was close enough last time that they're probably worried about the effect of protests and the police station burning down having on the suburbs.
The story about the main instigators of the police station being burned down being Proud Boys probably felt like a huge sigh of relief.
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Hm, Biden to St. Paul tomorrow. Also Iowa and Wisconsin.
Minnesota being squirrely.
I think this is more about not being foolhardy.
Minnesota was close enough last time that they're probably worried about the effect of protests and the police station burning down having on the suburbs.
The story about the main instigators of the police station being burned down being Proud Boys probably felt like a huge sigh of relief.
There have been some shaky polls there too. For Smith more than Biden but still.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Those Quinnipiac numbers feel okay to me. Ohio is obviously an outlier, but if the race is about tied there, which is how 538 has it, 5 points is just a normal-size polling error.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
It's pretty much a given that turnout is bad for the GOP / good for the Democratic Party across the board, but there's a big part of me that has to assume that Trump hit his ceiling in the election that shall not be named and there's just not that many people who have since decided 'yeah, that's our guy'.
I can only imagine the Hillary -> Trump voter is virtually non-existent and as worked up as Trump's base was then it's not like they get to vote twice because they are extra down for the racism now. So what does he have left for pickups? The far, far right that was suspicious he was a secret liberal? Goobers and alt-righters in the 18-22 range who weren't eligible to vote four years ago?
Even expecting day-of voting turnout to be massively down and primarily Republican I'm having trouble seeing a path for Trump that's not sheer unabashed fuckery and cheating that's so blatant it takes us into verboten topics.
And while a lot of these ballots are absentee / mailed and subject to both UPS and 'received / counted too late' potential shenanigans, a lot of them are just straight up early votes that are already in the system and counted.
I want to push back on this a bit, because unfortunately, it's not accurate. Trump is absolutely going to do better in terms of raw vote total than he did in 2016. It's possible there were fence-sitters last time, not sure if Trump was actually going to be turbo racist once he took office, but now he has proven that's who he is and they are willing to fall in line. Also worth noting that the last 4 years of right wing media has had the singular goal of indoctrinating as many conservatives and moderates to his side as possible.
This election is probably going to have nearly 150 million voters. Trump got ~63 million out of about 129 million votes cast. He's practically guaranteed to do better than his 2016 numbers in terms of raw vote total (though likely worse in terms of %). This, combined with the fact that he's polling better with younger black men and Latinos means that he has gained some support. We don't yet know how much, but we absolutely need to run up the score to overtake any potential new Trump voters.
Also, do not underestimate the impact that QAnon has had in pulling people over into supporting Trump.
Somehow it has absorbed a huge percentage of the other crazy conspiracy groups that were already way too online, and eaten them, and the earth is a flat circle and Nancy Pelosi controls the planes that don't burn jet fuel steel beams with the blood of white children and to stop Donald Trump from bringing the rapture by killing all the non-whites and sovereign gold fringe and also too 2nd amendment and furthermore.
a lot of people are not equipped to deal with, and/or have been left behind by, modern society.
I would argue Q-anon is the same ongoing mass hysteria by those of the oppressor group that cannot square the fact that they are in power with the petty grievances of their boring lives. It's gone by different names but it's always been there: Witch Hunts, Satanic Panic, Blood Libel...etc.
Someone mentioned if you put a head and some feet on the 538 snake chart, you had a dragon. So to take my mind off the election a bit I created an Election Dragon
Unfortunately NE-1 was lost in the process.
It doesn't have any wings, so that makes it a Chinese dragon. Does this mean that the election dragon is a China hoax like climate change and germ theory?
It's a Chinese dragon because that was way easier to do in paint.net
I think technically it's a Chinese wyvern.
*spits dice everywhere*
I beg your pardon, sir, but wyverns have wings and no arms; this is clearly an Election Wyrm.
[Begging my own pardon Edit]:
Lindwyrm, apparently. Wyrms have no legs at all!
Someone add a nice beefy arm coming out the back there. Then we can have an Election Trogdor. I heard he's already hit a couple drop boxes, burninating all the ballots.
Hm, Biden to St. Paul tomorrow. Also Iowa and Wisconsin.
Minnesota being squirrely.
I think this is more about not being foolhardy.
Minnesota was close enough last time that they're probably worried about the effect of protests and the police station burning down having on the suburbs.
The story about the main instigators of the police station being burned down being Proud Boys probably felt like a huge sigh of relief.
Boogaloo Boys. Just to be clear. It’s easy to mix up your Boys, they do blend together...Proud, Boogaloo, Duke, Pet Shop...
Also I don’t think that story got any penetration whatsoever in the conservative bubble. Like absolutely zero. Even outside the bubble, it feels like it was barely covered.
Anyone who is still treating the lap top as being a real thing at this juncture should be treated with the same derision and scorn as birthers; as of right now the only people who have supposedly seen this thing have been:
An unnamed computer repair man.
Rudy.
Someone at the New york post.
Like, putting aside the obvious ethical issues of a repair man reading your personal information (or keeping incriminating evidence on a non-remote drive) the fact that the first thing unamed computer repair man did was contact the president's lawyer (How he does this is unclear) instead of bringing it to law enforcement so that they can go and deal with it, and then it gets mailed to tucker carlson of all people where it is summarily lost.
Like, Mormonism makes less leaps of logic.
Well, they also claim to have contacted the FBI. Who didn't care about supposed child porn on it for ??? reasons.
Yeah, if this had happened then the FBI would have bullhorned this shit for all to hear.
Anyone who is still treating the lap top as being a real thing at this juncture should be treated with the same derision and scorn as birthers; as of right now the only people who have supposedly seen this thing have been:
An unnamed computer repair man.
Rudy.
Someone at the New york post.
Like, putting aside the obvious ethical issues of a repair man reading your personal information (or keeping incriminating evidence on a non-remote drive) the fact that the first thing unamed computer repair man did was contact the president's lawyer (How he does this is unclear) instead of bringing it to law enforcement so that they can go and deal with it, and then it gets mailed to tucker carlson of all people where it is summarily lost.
Like, Mormonism makes less leaps of logic.
Well, they also claim to have contacted the FBI. Who didn't care about supposed child porn on it for ??? reasons.
Yeah, if this had happened then the FBI would have bullhorned this shit for all to hear.
"We passed on actual child porn to promote vague insinuations of financial impropriety" is never a sentence you'll hear come out of a political strategy session.
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Come Overwatch with meeeee
Trump is repeating his now-usual story about how Biden shouldn't even be the Democratic candidate and it's Elizabeth Warren's fault that he is isn't running against Bernie right now.
I love in the wake of multiple failed attempts at defining Biden Trump is just running on everyone else.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I can get assuming Bernie would be nominated and give you a nice socialist box to put him in and say "Socialist Socialist Socialist" to scare everyone away, and being frustrated that what you perceived as the easy opponent was denied you. And yet at the same time, you still thought Biden would be enough of a threat to do an Impeachable thing to try and taint him. That feels like two different things.
Hm, Biden to St. Paul tomorrow. Also Iowa and Wisconsin.
Minnesota being squirrely.
Meanwhile, we get Trump down here for another airport rally.
The most interesting thing about that rally will be when it ends. Not because "ha ha unpleasant thing over", but to see if they've learned about dealing with rally attendees after it's finished. I doubt it.
It's pretty much a given that turnout is bad for the GOP / good for the Democratic Party across the board, but there's a big part of me that has to assume that Trump hit his ceiling in the election that shall not be named and there's just not that many people who have since decided 'yeah, that's our guy'.
I can only imagine the Hillary -> Trump voter is virtually non-existent and as worked up as Trump's base was then it's not like they get to vote twice because they are extra down for the racism now. So what does he have left for pickups? The far, far right that was suspicious he was a secret liberal? Goobers and alt-righters in the 18-22 range who weren't eligible to vote four years ago?
Even expecting day-of voting turnout to be massively down and primarily Republican I'm having trouble seeing a path for Trump that's not sheer unabashed fuckery and cheating that's so blatant it takes us into verboten topics.
And while a lot of these ballots are absentee / mailed and subject to both UPS and 'received / counted too late' potential shenanigans, a lot of them are just straight up early votes that are already in the system and counted.
I want to push back on this a bit, because unfortunately, it's not accurate. Trump is absolutely going to do better in terms of raw vote total than he did in 2016. It's possible there were fence-sitters last time, not sure if Trump was actually going to be turbo racist once he took office, but now he has proven that's who he is and they are willing to fall in line. Also worth noting that the last 4 years of right wing media has had the singular goal of indoctrinating as many conservatives and moderates to his side as possible.
This election is probably going to have nearly 150 million voters. Trump got ~63 million out of about 129 million votes cast. He's practically guaranteed to do better than his 2016 numbers in terms of raw vote total (though likely worse in terms of %). This, combined with the fact that he's polling better with younger black men and Latinos means that he has gained some support. We don't yet know how much, but we absolutely need to run up the score to overtake any potential new Trump voters.
Yeah, based on stuff in 2018 turnouts because there were Trumpers that sat 2016, that showed up that year. It's fair to say he'll beat his 2016 numbers this year. This is without trying to do something where we account for how mortality and new voters aging in might impact it, which gets messier. That said, if 2018 hadn't activated new voters for him, just the natural things probably means he would have slightly improved his numbers even if we go with the mind set that mortality would be rather harsh, given he does better with older voters than younger voters. Still plenty of young assholes aging in, that think his bullshit is awesome.
I can get assuming Bernie would be nominated and give you a nice socialist box to put him in and say "Socialist Socialist Socialist" to scare everyone away, and being frustrated that what you perceived as the easy opponent was denied you. And yet at the same time, you still thought Biden would be enough of a threat to do an Impeachable thing to try and taint him. That feels like two different things.
I think it's more that he was scared of running against Biden (hence breaking the law to get dirt on him) and probably got super excited when Bernie was ahead in the primary.
Hm, Biden to St. Paul tomorrow. Also Iowa and Wisconsin.
Minnesota being squirrely.
I think this is more about not being foolhardy.
Minnesota was close enough last time that they're probably worried about the effect of protests and the police station burning down having on the suburbs.
The story about the main instigators of the police station being burned down being Proud Boys probably felt like a huge sigh of relief.
Also there is a semi close senate race there so him showing the flag and pumping up enthusiasm there makes a lot of sense.
Biden and Harris's travel schedule reads like "we will not leave any state uncontested" swinging into Minnesota while you're in the midwest is a good move.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
"It would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on Nov. 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don't believe that's by our laws," Trump said between campaign stops on Tuesday.
Trump appeared to be confusing media projections with actual certified results from the states themselves. He did not object, for example, when Arizona was projected for him by the networks on election night in 2016 but not officially certified by the state until two days later.
. . .
In fairness to the president, things can get confusing in the United States with no overriding federal election commission. The decentralized electoral college system sees many states projected the minute after polls close, while others are unclear.
I can get assuming Bernie would be nominated and give you a nice socialist box to put him in and say "Socialist Socialist Socialist" to scare everyone away, and being frustrated that what you perceived as the easy opponent was denied you. And yet at the same time, you still thought Biden would be enough of a threat to do an Impeachable thing to try and taint him. That feels like two different things.
Clearly Ukraine was his plan A for Biden. Which, while impressive that he had a plan at all, was still only 1 more plan than his normal, and clearly at least 1 plan too few for actually accomplishing anything against Biden.
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Ohio going from 2:1 odds for Trump to leaning Biden seems a bit too much to hope for
That is um, overweighing that Quinnipiac poll slightly.
It's really not. It bumped it from a 49.5/49.5 split leaning red to one leaning blue. So we're talking, best case, still a very small nudge.
The election snake is a bad tool to look at outcomes. Essentially everything between Texas and Arizona is within 2% points and is in play, the snake only shows which is slightly higher.
That is um, overweighing that Quinnipiac poll slightly.
The only two other polls from the last week were one from Gravis, and one from SurveyMonkey for the end of September and almost all of October, so there's not much other polling to go on.
And the polling average is still in Trump's favor, just not as much as it was before. Ohio is blue (actually 50/50) because the polling is going so well for Biden in other states, and that gets factored in nationwide.
Posts
I think this is more about not being foolhardy.
I hope +7 in PA with biden over 50% is one they're right about
I leaned on an IN lawyer that I follow on Twitter this year for his advice. It was helpful, so that was nice.
On the other hand though, today I found out that the batshit crazy dude running in my district for state Rep won his primary; I thought he lost! He stamps around the IN statehouse in "bloody" scrubs, screaming about abortion, and sometime recently called the Catholic Church a cult (you'd think that would've sunk him with the churchy fucks where I live, but then I recalled they're all insane Evangelicals).
Minnesota was close enough last time that they're probably worried about the effect of protests and the police station burning down having on the suburbs.
The story about the main instigators of the police station being burned down being Proud Boys probably felt like a huge sigh of relief.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
There have been some shaky polls there too. For Smith more than Biden but still.
The Florida numbers are nightmare material. 13% undecided... now? 5 days from the election? Might as well be useless imo.
I would argue Q-anon is the same ongoing mass hysteria by those of the oppressor group that cannot square the fact that they are in power with the petty grievances of their boring lives. It's gone by different names but it's always been there: Witch Hunts, Satanic Panic, Blood Libel...etc.
Could be a final lap just to cement the numbers or could be that the Montana poll wasn't an outlier and it's a bit too close for comfort *shrug*
Someone add a nice beefy arm coming out the back there. Then we can have an Election Trogdor. I heard he's already hit a couple drop boxes, burninating all the ballots.
Boogaloo Boys. Just to be clear. It’s easy to mix up your Boys, they do blend together...Proud, Boogaloo, Duke, Pet Shop...
Also I don’t think that story got any penetration whatsoever in the conservative bubble. Like absolutely zero. Even outside the bubble, it feels like it was barely covered.
Yeah, if this had happened then the FBI would have bullhorned this shit for all to hear.
"We passed on actual child porn to promote vague insinuations of financial impropriety" is never a sentence you'll hear come out of a political strategy session.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
CNN reporter
I love in the wake of multiple failed attempts at defining Biden Trump is just running on everyone else.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Meanwhile, we get Trump down here for another airport rally.
The most interesting thing about that rally will be when it ends. Not because "ha ha unpleasant thing over", but to see if they've learned about dealing with rally attendees after it's finished. I doubt it.
Yeah, based on stuff in 2018 turnouts because there were Trumpers that sat 2016, that showed up that year. It's fair to say he'll beat his 2016 numbers this year. This is without trying to do something where we account for how mortality and new voters aging in might impact it, which gets messier. That said, if 2018 hadn't activated new voters for him, just the natural things probably means he would have slightly improved his numbers even if we go with the mind set that mortality would be rather harsh, given he does better with older voters than younger voters. Still plenty of young assholes aging in, that think his bullshit is awesome.
Oh my god, yes. Please.
I think it's more that he was scared of running against Biden (hence breaking the law to get dirt on him) and probably got super excited when Bernie was ahead in the primary.
Also there is a semi close senate race there so him showing the flag and pumping up enthusiasm there makes a lot of sense.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I mean... it's certainly a strategy, but not even a bold one.
It really should have put it into a "complete toss-up" category if anything. 49.5% to 49.5% right now according to 538.
It's really not. It bumped it from a 49.5/49.5 split leaning red to one leaning blue. So we're talking, best case, still a very small nudge.
The election snake is a bad tool to look at outcomes. Essentially everything between Texas and Arizona is within 2% points and is in play, the snake only shows which is slightly higher.
my guess is 50/50 with the most recent poll being Biden is what makes it blue and not red?
i dunno if they do a neutral grey or something on 50/50
but the snake offered freedom
wait
"Let her go!"
"ooh, poor choice of words..."
MSNBC reporter
Another attempt at restricting voting shut down.
pleasepaypreacher.net
The only two other polls from the last week were one from Gravis, and one from SurveyMonkey for the end of September and almost all of October, so there's not much other polling to go on.
And the polling average is still in Trump's favor, just not as much as it was before. Ohio is blue (actually 50/50) because the polling is going so well for Biden in other states, and that gets factored in nationwide.