A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
Why doesn't he pretty much just say he fucked us but good, and that it's time to start prepping for four more years of this shit with no way to stop the shitshow now, and he'll be fucking off to nowheresville because this is the same thing he helped do in the year we can't talk about?
I don't think you can say that Nate Silver is to blame somehow for the results. We just seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what the US electorate is, but, Silver doesn't make them vote the way they did. He didn't make the Democrats pick Biden.
Nate doesn't even run the polls, and, if things keep looking the way they are win or lose for biden it just seems that polling is just plain, wrong for much of the USA.
Then take the whole polling apparatus, load it up, and fire it all into the fucking sun, for all the good it's doing. Because this is last time all over again: polls get everyone's hopes up, results come in, and everybody is stunned and aghast at how we didn't know something like this could fucking happen while the shitheads, the racists, the militias, the religious right, and all the rest hoot and holler and get ready for the best four years of their lives.
Naw this is bullshit.
This is people not understanding the margin of error and more importantly that polls aren't fucking prophecy.
How do the polls account for a reality TV star that got elected purely on cult of personality based around courting reprehensible assholes?
Turns out: They kinda don't.
I still think the current asshole occupant of the White House loses but it's not going to be the landslide that it absolutely should have been and frankly? Yeah, that's disappointing.
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
Why doesn't he pretty much just say he fucked us but good, and that it's time to start prepping for four more years of this shit with no way to stop the shitshow now, and he'll be fucking off to nowheresville because this is the same thing he helped do in the year we can't talk about?
Bear in mind that the trump campaign are not feeling confident right now.
To clarify my comments on Trump staffers being dumb: There is a good chance that this tweet was in response to yet another batch of results coming out that made Trump's lead worse (seemingly bad for Trump), but also represented a decent chunk of votes that are not quite pro-Biden enough to cause Trump to lose (which is actually good news for Trump! Very slightly!)
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
Why doesn't he pretty much just say he fucked us but good, and that it's time to start prepping for four more years of this shit with no way to stop the shitshow now, and he'll be fucking off to nowheresville because this is the same thing he helped do in the year we can't talk about?
I don't think you can say that Nate Silver is to blame somehow for the results. We just seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what the US electorate is, but, Silver doesn't make them vote the way they did. He didn't make the Democrats pick Biden.
Nate doesn't even run the polls, and, if things keep looking the way they are win or lose for biden it just seems that polling is just plain, wrong for much of the USA.
Then take the whole polling apparatus, load it up, and fire it all into the fucking sun, for all the good it's doing. Because this is last time all over again: polls get everyone's hopes up, results come in, and everybody is stunned and aghast at how we didn't know something like this could fucking happen while the shitheads, the racists, the militias, the religious right, and all the rest hoot and holler and get ready for the best four years of their lives.
That I agree with, it just seems to be pretty much impossible to usefully predict the US elections using the methodology they are using. Something is wrong with it, likely some kind of over fitting which creates a perception of a certain result and then self reinforces itself.
Either that or there was just a complete misunderstanding on who was voting early etc.
I'll hold off final judgement until all results are in, but if the trends continue, a lot of pollsters seem kinda shit at their jobs.
NBC just called Iowa for Trump. Would have been nice if they didn't vote awful, but we all expected this. Honestly, with IA, FL and OH banked for Trump now, a Biden win would make the media shut up about all three for a change.
Anyways, in case it was missed. Ben Tribbett pointed out that republicans managed to get 10 million more raw votes up form their total in 2016. I won't go into theories on where those came from. I'll point out that it was somewhat expected that he'd beat his 2016 number because more of the deplorables showed up in 2018 and pop growth is a thing that exist. That said, this is a big factor in why we didn't see a blowout. It's also a good indication that this wasn't the fault of Biden because these fuckers weren't ever going to vote for Biden, ever. Just have to hope everything else pulls through and these fuckers get depressed when their shit stain champion gets defeated.
It does make me really worry about the Senate though. We need to flip four seats. We already got one by booting Gardner. Kelly, gives us our second one. Assuming Collins goes, we need one more to replace Jones losing in Alabama. The hope was NC and it's still on the table. Otherwise it's going to be GA, which is still on the table. Hell, even if democrats get a majority, special GA Senate race probably goes to runoff and maybe the normal one and they'll be both hilariously and depressingly the most expensive Senate races in history.
This is pretty much the results I expected, just not what i hoped for. Trump is totally going call a win tonight and fight against any further results (and fail.) I think Biden will nudge past the finish, but the senate is still up in the air and will likely be dysfunctional if it's 50-50. So a win, but just barely. JFC America.
I'm trying to keep give my wife and best friend hope and it's really hard when I don't have answers as to why so many people would vote for Trump. Even if Biden pulls this out... this nation needs lot of work, and I expect us to back here again every two years.
I needed a decisive victory a lot, even if I didn't expect one. I'm really glad I took the rest of the week off work.
There are lots of little reasons but most of them amount to the big reason. We are both a country and a world in decline. People are suffering and the things they believed in are faltering. They don’t know to whom to turn and many find Trump comforting for a variety of reason that amount the fact that the solutions and worldview he offers play into the beliefs and values they already hold.
Also a lot of propaganda in the last 60 years. You can blame a lot of this more specifically on the way Fox News has managed convince entire generations that they are the only source for news that tells the truth while telling more and more elaborate lies.
It's not just Fox. The entire media apparatus happily pushes garbage and refuses to call out lies. Twitter and Facebook (especially Facebook) are openly biased. McCarthyism fucked over social progress hard, and far too many people can be persuaded by just yelling "communist" over and over.
Our education system pushes an entirely uncritical hagiography of the country.
The rot runs deep, and there's little desire at the top to deal with it.
Correction, the one reason to stay up is to see what Trump's speech will be. He just tweeted that the election is being stolen apparently and supposedly he is going to speak.
He's going to pretty much admit they're going to ratfuck the states he needs now, and the DoJ and SC is going to help him, I imagine.
I'm thinking that there is a big difference between him just getting on stage and spouting the same rhetoric they have been for like weeks now, announcing specific legal challenges his campaign is making or intends to make, or doing something completely insane like declaring that he's sending in federal agents to secure and investigate counting facilities. So it might be worth checking.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
Is there any reason states don't just wait until they have like 95% of the results in before saying anything?
Most localities post their results themselves publicly. Which is probably a good thing as far as transparency goes but means results trickle out as they're compiled.
I'm going to bed. I am trying to cut down on drinking and told myself if I could make it through tonight it would be a big accomplishment. I bargained with myself (ok start drinking NOW but then don't let yourself have one sunday) but still managed to make it. I owe a lot of that to everyone keeping me informed.
I miss the joy of these threads when Obama beat McCain, and am going to bed more optimistic than I was an hour ago.
Excited (...?) to be a part of this with y'all. Get some sleep if you need it and keep the faith!
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Like right now, we're all in the chaos and everything. But when all the votes are counted, I'm not sure the polls were that far off overall.
I'm sure we'll come back inside the margin of error everywhere, but I feel there are related trends that aren't being well captured in polling that make it much less useful than it appears.
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.
Why doesn't he pretty much just say he fucked us but good, and that it's time to start prepping for four more years of this shit with no way to stop the shitshow now, and he'll be fucking off to nowheresville because this is the same thing he helped do in the year we can't talk about?
I don't think you can say that Nate Silver is to blame somehow for the results. We just seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what the US electorate is, but, Silver doesn't make them vote the way they did. He didn't make the Democrats pick Biden.
Nate doesn't even run the polls, and, if things keep looking the way they are win or lose for biden it just seems that polling is just plain, wrong for much of the USA.
Then take the whole polling apparatus, load it up, and fire it all into the fucking sun, for all the good it's doing. Because this is last time all over again: polls get everyone's hopes up, results come in, and everybody is stunned and aghast at how we didn't know something like this could fucking happen while the shitheads, the racists, the militias, the religious right, and all the rest hoot and holler and get ready for the best four years of their lives.
That I agree with, it just seems to be pretty much impossible to usefully predict the US elections using the methodology they are using. Something is wrong with it, likely some kind of over fitting which creates a perception of a certain result and then self reinforces itself.
Either that or there was just a complete misunderstanding on who was voting early etc.
I'll hold off final judgement until all results are in, but if the trends continue, a lot of pollsters seem kinda shit at their jobs.
Polls are really fucking hard right now. Do you answer unknown numbers on your phone? Click on web ads asking you to take a survey? Fucking nobody does those things.
Response rates are like low single digits which makes it a bear to get to enough answers to have some kind of statistical validity.
In more pleasant news... NE-02 has counted another chunk of votes - getting very close to predicted turnout and 7% above 2016 levels - and Trump has closed the gap from 25,000 votes to *squint* 23,000 votes. Looks like that one + AZ means we're coming to "any two of WI/MI/PA are enough" territory.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
I great news, all the members of The Squad have won their reelections.
In more pleasant news... NE-02 has counted another chunk of votes - getting very close to predicted turnout and 7% above 2016 levels - and Trump has closed the gap from 25,000 votes to *squint* 23,000 votes. Looks like that one + AZ means we're coming to "any two of WI/MI/PA are enough" territory.
We still need to take Nevada first.
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BlackDragon480Bluster KerfuffleMaster of Windy ImportRegistered Userregular
In more pleasant news... NE-02 has counted another chunk of votes - getting very close to predicted turnout and 7% above 2016 levels - and Trump has closed the gap from 25,000 votes to *squint* 23,000 votes. Looks like that one + AZ means we're coming to "any two of WI/MI/PA are enough" territory.
We still need to take Nevada first.
Ralston is confident about Nevada. And Biden crushed it in Washoe County. Up 14k now, Clinton only won by 2k. Trump had to keep that close and probably win it to win the state.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
How is it this close? Is it a case of our polls being fucked again ? It shouldn't be this close. Not even. Fuck pumpkin head
At this stage it is very difficult to say, especially with the results not fully in and potentially decent shifts associated with early/mail voting that will alter our perception of the race.
Overall, the current narrative seems to be:
Moderate polling error in favor of Biden (low-end of the Margin of Error)
Extra polling error with Latinx, especially Cuban Latinx, making Florida far less competitive than it should be
Potential Biden overperformance with white people and suburbs by a small amount.
How is it this close? Is it a case of our polls being fucked again ? It shouldn't be this close. Not even. Fuck pumpkin head
Is it that close? Biden look on track to win 2-4 states past the tipping point.
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silence1186Character shields down!As a wingmanRegistered Userregular
1AM was my cutoff, so goodnight y'all. I turned the TV off ~20 minutes ago, and music off 5 minutes ago. Need quiet to get to bed, because my head is a mess.
Biden may still squeak this one out? Depends on Omaha, MI/WI/PA, and those three states will take days to count. GA votes mysteriously being fucked with in ATL.
My biggest disappointment is the Senate.
Fuck Tills. But also goddammit Cunningham.
Fuck Collins.
Fuck Ernst.
Fuck Perdue.
Fuck Loeffler.
*breathe*
Okay, for real, self-care y'all. The election will still be counting in the morning. *shudders* at that thought.
Love to all, thanks for the ride.
Try not to post too much while I'm asleep, it'll take me a long time to catch up
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
In more pleasant news... NE-02 has counted another chunk of votes - getting very close to predicted turnout and 7% above 2016 levels - and Trump has closed the gap from 25,000 votes to *squint* 23,000 votes. Looks like that one + AZ means we're coming to "any two of WI/MI/PA are enough" territory.
We still need to take Nevada first.
Ralston is confident about Nevada. And Biden crushed it in Washoe County. Up 14k now, Clinton only won by 2k. Trump had to keep that close and probably win it to win the state.
I don't see any Nevada results. Is The Guardian broken?
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
This is the most mind blowing to me. A specific state poll so far off. Just... how?
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
Don't they have ranked choice?
EDIT: Misunderstood. Apparently only half the state has reported in so far, so it's too soon to tell.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
Don't they have ranked choice?
They do. If Collins gets knocked below 50 she was getting crushed in the second choice balloting in the polls I saw. Even the ones that were good for her.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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Naw this is bullshit.
This is people not understanding the margin of error and more importantly that polls aren't fucking prophecy.
How do the polls account for a reality TV star that got elected purely on cult of personality based around courting reprehensible assholes?
Turns out: They kinda don't.
I still think the current asshole occupant of the White House loses but it's not going to be the landslide that it absolutely should have been and frankly? Yeah, that's disappointing.
Because none of that is true mostly.
To clarify my comments on Trump staffers being dumb: There is a good chance that this tweet was in response to yet another batch of results coming out that made Trump's lead worse (seemingly bad for Trump), but also represented a decent chunk of votes that are not quite pro-Biden enough to cause Trump to lose (which is actually good news for Trump! Very slightly!)
I'll hold off final judgement until all results are in, but if the trends continue, a lot of pollsters seem kinda shit at their jobs.
Anyways, in case it was missed. Ben Tribbett pointed out that republicans managed to get 10 million more raw votes up form their total in 2016. I won't go into theories on where those came from. I'll point out that it was somewhat expected that he'd beat his 2016 number because more of the deplorables showed up in 2018 and pop growth is a thing that exist. That said, this is a big factor in why we didn't see a blowout. It's also a good indication that this wasn't the fault of Biden because these fuckers weren't ever going to vote for Biden, ever. Just have to hope everything else pulls through and these fuckers get depressed when their shit stain champion gets defeated.
It does make me really worry about the Senate though. We need to flip four seats. We already got one by booting Gardner. Kelly, gives us our second one. Assuming Collins goes, we need one more to replace Jones losing in Alabama. The hope was NC and it's still on the table. Otherwise it's going to be GA, which is still on the table. Hell, even if democrats get a majority, special GA Senate race probably goes to runoff and maybe the normal one and they'll be both hilariously and depressingly the most expensive Senate races in history.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
It's not just Fox. The entire media apparatus happily pushes garbage and refuses to call out lies. Twitter and Facebook (especially Facebook) are openly biased. McCarthyism fucked over social progress hard, and far too many people can be persuaded by just yelling "communist" over and over.
Our education system pushes an entirely uncritical hagiography of the country.
The rot runs deep, and there's little desire at the top to deal with it.
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I'm thinking that there is a big difference between him just getting on stage and spouting the same rhetoric they have been for like weeks now, announcing specific legal challenges his campaign is making or intends to make, or doing something completely insane like declaring that he's sending in federal agents to secure and investigate counting facilities. So it might be worth checking.
Most localities post their results themselves publicly. Which is probably a good thing as far as transparency goes but means results trickle out as they're compiled.
I miss the joy of these threads when Obama beat McCain, and am going to bed more optimistic than I was an hour ago.
Excited (...?) to be a part of this with y'all. Get some sleep if you need it and keep the faith!
I'm sure we'll come back inside the margin of error everywhere, but I feel there are related trends that aren't being well captured in polling that make it much less useful than it appears.
Polls are really fucking hard right now. Do you answer unknown numbers on your phone? Click on web ads asking you to take a survey? Fucking nobody does those things.
Response rates are like low single digits which makes it a bear to get to enough answers to have some kind of statistical validity.
We still need to take Nevada first.
We've kinda known that since at least 2010.
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They must be actively watching his account.
They'll flag it but not tear it down. It'll get passed around like the fucking gospel.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
Ralston is confident about Nevada. And Biden crushed it in Washoe County. Up 14k now, Clinton only won by 2k. Trump had to keep that close and probably win it to win the state.
Nothing that has happened so far is really unexpected.
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At this stage it is very difficult to say, especially with the results not fully in and potentially decent shifts associated with early/mail voting that will alter our perception of the race.
Overall, the current narrative seems to be:
Is it that close? Biden look on track to win 2-4 states past the tipping point.
Biden may still squeak this one out? Depends on Omaha, MI/WI/PA, and those three states will take days to count. GA votes mysteriously being fucked with in ATL.
My biggest disappointment is the Senate.
Fuck Tills. But also goddammit Cunningham.
Fuck Collins.
Fuck Ernst.
Fuck Perdue.
Fuck Loeffler.
*breathe*
Okay, for real, self-care y'all. The election will still be counting in the morning. *shudders* at that thought.
Love to all, thanks for the ride.
Try not to post too much while I'm asleep, it'll take me a long time to catch up
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
I don't see any Nevada results. Is The Guardian broken?
Huge chunk of DeKalb, too, which will largely be Biden votes.
I honestly think Georgia is going to flip, which combined with AZ will make this all academic.
This is the most mind blowing to me. A specific state poll so far off. Just... how?
Don't they have ranked choice?
EDIT: Misunderstood. Apparently only half the state has reported in so far, so it's too soon to tell.
They do. If Collins gets knocked below 50 she was getting crushed in the second choice balloting in the polls I saw. Even the ones that were good for her.
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I imagine Trump's best are on their way to ratfuck like they've never ratfucked before. Lawyers are on their way.
I can has cheezburger, yes?