Options

GME-ing the stonk market

1798082848591

Posts

  • Options
    WinkyWinky rRegistered User regular
    There's some highly upvoted conspiracy theory on r/GME right now that Citadel is doing naked operational shorting of ETFs in order to tank the price of GME. The post is not written in a way that inspires confidence that the person writing about it is particularly rational or trustworthy (lots of bold large font caps and WSB memes and assertions on flimsy evidence), but on first pass as a layman the logic appears more or less sound. I don't really see anything in the way of actual evidence, though. Still, I think it's still puzzling how that movement yesterday happened and some sort of move on the institutional side seems believable.

  • Options
    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited March 2021
    Shorting an ETF containing GME and then buying every other stock would consume a stupid amount of capital though

    The biggest ETF containing GME seems to be under 5% (https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) so in order to short $1 of GME you'd have to short $20 of GAMR - for which you'd likely have to post $10 in margin of your own cash. Then you'd have to buy $19 of all of the other stocks, for which you'd have to probably post another $6 in margin. So while you can short and buy other stocks you have to post multiples of that in margin - unless somehow they dont have to follow the usual margin rules?

    GAMR only has a volume of $5M though so you'd have to find another ETF to do it with - and you'd need to trade a lot of it

    Phyphor on
  • Options
    Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    but on first pass as a layman the logic appears more or less sound. I don't really see anything in the way of actual evidence, though. Still, I think it's still puzzling how that movement yesterday happened and some sort of move on the institutional side seems believable.

    I've noticed those all caps posts all seem to make a lot of sense to me too, but so far not a single prediction in one them has come true. I think some of the WSB posters are just getting really good at constructing meme posts that will shoot to the front page. (You'll notice all of them have nearly the same format, style, and tone.)

  • Options
    bowenbowen How you doin'? Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Shorting an ETF containing GME and then buying every other stock would consume a stupid amount of capital though

    The biggest ETF containing GME seems to be under 5% (https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) so in order to short $1 of GME you'd have to short $20 of GAMR - for which you'd likely have to post $10 in margin of your own cash. Then you'd have to buy $19 of all of the other stocks, for which you'd have to probably post another $6 in margin. So while you can short and buy other stocks you have to post multiples of that in margin - unless somehow they dont have to follow the usual margin rules?

    GAMR only has a volume of $5M though so you'd have to find another ETF to do it with - and you'd need to trade a lot of it

    Citadel has $35 billion dollars in retail assets and collateral without even talking about their securities division. They can leverage loans to basically shit on anyone for years if they needed to.

    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • Options
    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    bowen wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Shorting an ETF containing GME and then buying every other stock would consume a stupid amount of capital though

    The biggest ETF containing GME seems to be under 5% (https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) so in order to short $1 of GME you'd have to short $20 of GAMR - for which you'd likely have to post $10 in margin of your own cash. Then you'd have to buy $19 of all of the other stocks, for which you'd have to probably post another $6 in margin. So while you can short and buy other stocks you have to post multiples of that in margin - unless somehow they dont have to follow the usual margin rules?

    GAMR only has a volume of $5M though so you'd have to find another ETF to do it with - and you'd need to trade a lot of it

    Citadel has $35 billion dollars in retail assets and collateral without even talking about their securities division. They can leverage loans to basically shit on anyone for years if they needed to.

    Presumably they would not want to put an excessive amount of money into one bet though

    You would also see crazy volumes in a bunch of other symbols
    XSVM has low volume. RWJ has low volume. RETL has low volume. XRT does a quarter billion dollars a day @ 2.87% GME - but only has 718k short availability. You could short all of them to short $1.7M of GME

    Like it's not impossible for them to do something like that, but it is improbable and it's something that would leave traces. ETF components are public, trade volumes are public

  • Options
    bowenbowen How you doin'? Registered User regular
    Well they're also a clearing house, so they don't really need to put that much into it. They can just fuck over companies like robin hood and ETFs instead if they absolutely wanted to.

    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    bowen wrote: »
    Well they're also a clearing house, so they don't really need to put that much into it. They can just fuck over companies like robin hood and ETFs instead if they absolutely wanted to.

    Incorrect.

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    So this could have something to do with GME, or absolutely nothing to do with GME, but there are reports that the family fund Archegos Capital Management got margin called by Credit Suisse and other banks late last week, which forced them into a massive sell off that dumpstered a couple of stocks. The market appears to have mostly shrugged it off, but this serves a telling example of how it might go down if Citadel continues getting into trouble.

  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular

    Some random webcomic from 14 years ago
    Penny Arcade for March 30th 2007, 14 years ago today: https://penny-arcade.com/comic/2007/03/30
    #pennyarcade

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    So this could have something to do with GME, or absolutely nothing to do with GME, but there are reports that the family fund Archegos Capital Management got margin called by Credit Suisse and other banks late last week, which forced them into a massive sell off that dumpstered a couple of stocks. The market appears to have mostly shrugged it off, but this serves a telling example of how it might go down if Citadel continues getting into trouble.

    Wait wait wait wait... are you saying stocks aren't always a measure of a companies actual value and that the stock market doesn't necessarily represent the economy? This is my shocked face. (The snark is not actually at you, to be clear).

  • Options
    DarklyreDarklyre Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    So this could have something to do with GME, or absolutely nothing to do with GME, but there are reports that the family fund Archegos Capital Management got margin called by Credit Suisse and other banks late last week, which forced them into a massive sell off that dumpstered a couple of stocks. The market appears to have mostly shrugged it off, but this serves a telling example of how it might go down if Citadel continues getting into trouble.

    What's really entertaining is the fallout. The prime brokers involved (Credit Suisse, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs) allegedly had an informal agreement to space out the selling so as to not crater the price. Goldman Sachs, true to form, said "fuck the rest of you" and started frontrunning to minimize their own losses, and Morgan Stanley quickly followed suit. Goldman Sachs now has "immaterial" losses, while Credit Suisse and Nomura are out billions already (and are still sitting on large blocks of shares they haven't been able to sell).

    The sheer ruthlessness is a wonder to behold.

  • Options
    Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    informal agreement

    Ha ha ha, if that's true, there really is a sucker born born every minute.

  • Options
    GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it

    wbBv3fj.png
  • Options
    Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    If I've learned anything out of this crazy GME ride, it's that most of the time the SEC doesn't appear to give a fuck what the institutional side gets up to.

  • Options
    AresProphetAresProphet Registered User regular
    Trying to manipulate GME at this point is playing with fire
    Darklyre wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    So this could have something to do with GME, or absolutely nothing to do with GME, but there are reports that the family fund Archegos Capital Management got margin called by Credit Suisse and other banks late last week, which forced them into a massive sell off that dumpstered a couple of stocks. The market appears to have mostly shrugged it off, but this serves a telling example of how it might go down if Citadel continues getting into trouble.

    What's really entertaining is the fallout. The prime brokers involved (Credit Suisse, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs) allegedly had an informal agreement to space out the selling so as to not crater the price. Goldman Sachs, true to form, said "fuck the rest of you" and started frontrunning to minimize their own losses, and Morgan Stanley quickly followed suit. Goldman Sachs now has "immaterial" losses, while Credit Suisse and Nomura are out billions already (and are still sitting on large blocks of shares they haven't been able to sell).

    The sheer ruthlessness is a wonder to behold.

    The prisoner's dilemma is a bitch

    ex9pxyqoxf6e.png
  • Options
    zepherinzepherin Russian warship, go fuck yourself Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it
    Is it collusion if you immediately fuck everyone on the deal?

  • Options
    ChaosHatChaosHat Hop, hop, hop, HA! Trick of the lightRegistered User regular
    zepherin wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it
    Is it collusion if you immediately fuck everyone on the deal?

    "Is it a crime if everyone is too stupid or greedy to actually execute on it" is an interesting legal theory.

    Sure my client attempted murder but dropped their gun and shot themselves in the foot, preventing any crime from actually happening!

  • Options
    DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    zepherin wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it
    Is it collusion if you immediately fuck everyone on the deal?

    I'd argue it's the oldest form of collusion.

    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    I like to ART
  • Options
    DarklyreDarklyre Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it

    "Informal agreement" is a bit loaded - I should've said "ceasefire" instead.

    From what reports are saying, the prime brokers and Archegos were on a call Thursday night to discuss if there was some way to keep the imminent fire sale orderly. Goldman Sachs basically said LOLNO and pulled the trigger on everything it was carrying on Friday, because while their ethics department could use some help their dealmakers are on point and had customers already locked in. Morgan Stanley knew GS's gameplan and followed suit, while Credit Suisse and Nomura got caught with their pants down and are still trying to unwind their positions.

  • Options
    zepherinzepherin Russian warship, go fuck yourself Registered User regular
    ChaosHat wrote: »
    zepherin wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it
    Is it collusion if you immediately fuck everyone on the deal?

    "Is it a crime if everyone is too stupid or greedy to actually execute on it" is an interesting legal theory.

    Sure my client attempted murder but dropped their gun and shot themselves in the foot, preventing any crime from actually happening!
    Isn’t that the argument that was used by Muller on why there wasn’t collusion with Russia? That everyone along the way was too stupid or ignored the president?

  • Options
    GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Darklyre wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it

    "Informal agreement" is a bit loaded - I should've said "ceasefire" instead.

    From what reports are saying, the prime brokers and Archegos were on a call Thursday night to discuss if there was some way to keep the imminent fire sale orderly. Goldman Sachs basically said LOLNO and pulled the trigger on everything it was carrying on Friday, because while their ethics department could use some help their dealmakers are on point and had customers already locked in. Morgan Stanley knew GS's gameplan and followed suit, while Credit Suisse and Nomura got caught with their pants down and are still trying to unwind their positions.

    Yea that still seems illegal to me.
    zepherin wrote: »
    Goumindong wrote: »
    If they really had an “informal agreement” that is collusion and like... a big deal. Unless the deal was so informal they had not talked to anyone about it. Frankly it’s safer to front run any “deal” like that that gets proposed than it would be to attempt to stick to it
    Is it collusion if you immediately fuck everyone on the deal?

    Probably not. In order to collude you would have to actually do it i would think. At the least your defense would be good enough i doubt you get prosecuted. "Our competitor tried to get us to illegally collude and we screwed them for it" seems like a good defense.

    wbBv3fj.png
  • Options
    CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Thanks to those brave rebels, *checks notes* the departing Gamestop CEO gets a shitload of money

    https://gamasutra.com/view/news/380229/Departing_GameStop_CEO_to_land_179_million_on_exit_thanks_to_recent_stock_saga.php
    GameStop CEO George Sherman announced his departure from the struggling retail giant this week and, according to some number crunching by the team at Reuters, is all set to depart with an extra $179 million in his pockets.

    According to a report from the publication, exiting CEO Sherman is set to receive a $179 million stock payout upon his departure from GameStop. This comes despite missed performance targets during his tenure, including one that saw him forfeiting $98 million in additional stock due to falling short of those goals.

    There's a more in-depth breakdown with analyst commentary in the full Reuters story, but in short Sherman's sizable departure payout is due to a combination of GameStop's earlier decision to grant him more shares based on his time at the company (rather than shares tied to performance) and the recent stock market weirdness that drove GameStop's stock value through the roof.

    GameStop's stock price has settled down some since a financial war between Reddit day traders and Wall Street short-sellers drove it to a $347 peak in January of this year, but its current value is still a significant amount higher than it was when Sherman was awarded those stocks, leading to a hefty payout upon his departure.

  • Options
    SummaryJudgmentSummaryJudgment Grab the hottest iron you can find, stride in the Tower’s front door Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    Thanks to those brave rebels, *checks notes* the departing Gamestop CEO gets a shitload of money

    https://gamasutra.com/view/news/380229/Departing_GameStop_CEO_to_land_179_million_on_exit_thanks_to_recent_stock_saga.php
    GameStop CEO George Sherman announced his departure from the struggling retail giant this week and, according to some number crunching by the team at Reuters, is all set to depart with an extra $179 million in his pockets.

    According to a report from the publication, exiting CEO Sherman is set to receive a $179 million stock payout upon his departure from GameStop. This comes despite missed performance targets during his tenure, including one that saw him forfeiting $98 million in additional stock due to falling short of those goals.

    There's a more in-depth breakdown with analyst commentary in the full Reuters story, but in short Sherman's sizable departure payout is due to a combination of GameStop's earlier decision to grant him more shares based on his time at the company (rather than shares tied to performance) and the recent stock market weirdness that drove GameStop's stock value through the roof.

    GameStop's stock price has settled down some since a financial war between Reddit day traders and Wall Street short-sellers drove it to a $347 peak in January of this year, but its current value is still a significant amount higher than it was when Sherman was awarded those stocks, leading to a hefty payout upon his departure.

    Maybe he'll buy a yacht and call it the Citadel

    Some days Blue wonders why anyone ever bothered making numbers so small; other days she supposes even infinity needs to start somewhere.
  • Options
    KoopahTroopahKoopahTroopah The koopas, the troopas. Philadelphia, PARegistered User regular
    edited April 2021
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    KoopahTroopah on
  • Options
    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    This is basically them taking advantage of the boosted share price while they can, right? Not that I'm blaming them for it.

    Steam: Polaritie
    3DS: 0473-8507-2652
    Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
    PSN: AbEntropy
  • Options
    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    And I mean, why not? It’s basicallly free money right now.

  • Options
    AresProphetAresProphet Registered User regular
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    I don't know that there is a future, successful Gamestop that in any way resembles last year's struggling, possibly-doomed Gamestop.

    Like sure there could be a Gamestop three years from now that consistently produces profitable quarters, but is that a Gamestop selling video games in malls and strip malls? Is it even a Gamestop selling video games on the internet? Both of those industries have headwinds: in the case of physical retail, the strangulation of retail by the combined forces of late stage capitalism (private equity, the rentier class squeezing those stones for blood ever harder) and shifting consumer preferences (digital distribution); in the latter case, a field dominated by a handful of established players already engaged in a race to the bottom (Steam and Epic), and proprietary first party distribution platforms which lock out competition (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo).

    Where does a newly-capitalized revitalized Gamestop fit into this in a way that leads to lasting, long term success? It's hard to envision the existing business getting profitable again; so much of Gamestop under Paul Raines was about trying to expand the retail product line to diversify it against any one of them declining, but then he died from brain cancer and the leadership started selling off all the non-game business for cash. At one point Gamestop ran the single largest exclusive retail outlets for one of the major U.S. phone carriers, at a comfortable profit! And then divested it in order to burn a hundred million propping up the failing game business.

    They tried diversifying, and self-amputated it all in the name of hitting analyst expectations for a quarterly earnings report because the CEO who championed the expansion couldn't object due to being six feet under.

    It has become a deeply mismanaged company and the new leadership is going to have an uphill battle trying to turn it into something it isn't. I would wish them well, except I'm pretty sure everyone in the C-suite has a Plan B that solely consists of "quit while my stock options are worth a fucking fortune."

    ex9pxyqoxf6e.png
  • Options
    jothkijothki Registered User regular
    Now they have to actually do something with that money, rather than just continuing to parasitically hitch themselves to a dying market.

  • Options
    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    I don't know that there is a future, successful Gamestop that in any way resembles last year's struggling, possibly-doomed Gamestop.

    Like sure there could be a Gamestop three years from now that consistently produces profitable quarters, but is that a Gamestop selling video games in malls and strip malls? Is it even a Gamestop selling video games on the internet? Both of those industries have headwinds: in the case of physical retail, the strangulation of retail by the combined forces of late stage capitalism (private equity, the rentier class squeezing those stones for blood ever harder) and shifting consumer preferences (digital distribution); in the latter case, a field dominated by a handful of established players already engaged in a race to the bottom (Steam and Epic), and proprietary first party distribution platforms which lock out competition (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo).

    Where does a newly-capitalized revitalized Gamestop fit into this in a way that leads to lasting, long term success? It's hard to envision the existing business getting profitable again; so much of Gamestop under Paul Raines was about trying to expand the retail product line to diversify it against any one of them declining, but then he died from brain cancer and the leadership started selling off all the non-game business for cash. At one point Gamestop ran the single largest exclusive retail outlets for one of the major U.S. phone carriers, at a comfortable profit! And then divested it in order to burn a hundred million propping up the failing game business.

    They tried diversifying, and self-amputated it all in the name of hitting analyst expectations for a quarterly earnings report because the CEO who championed the expansion couldn't object due to being six feet under.

    It has become a deeply mismanaged company and the new leadership is going to have an uphill battle trying to turn it into something it isn't. I would wish them well, except I'm pretty sure everyone in the C-suite has a Plan B that solely consists of "quit while my stock options are worth a fucking fortune."

    They no longer have burdensome debt payments requiring quick sales of sustainable/profitable units

    They could be anything, just like how Nintendo used to be a card company

  • Options
    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    With no debt and half a billion in cash on hand they can do quite a bit to turn things around and go into a completely new market.

    No reason they have to remain a used game seller at this point.

  • Options
    jothkijothki Registered User regular
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    I don't know that there is a future, successful Gamestop that in any way resembles last year's struggling, possibly-doomed Gamestop.

    Like sure there could be a Gamestop three years from now that consistently produces profitable quarters, but is that a Gamestop selling video games in malls and strip malls? Is it even a Gamestop selling video games on the internet? Both of those industries have headwinds: in the case of physical retail, the strangulation of retail by the combined forces of late stage capitalism (private equity, the rentier class squeezing those stones for blood ever harder) and shifting consumer preferences (digital distribution); in the latter case, a field dominated by a handful of established players already engaged in a race to the bottom (Steam and Epic), and proprietary first party distribution platforms which lock out competition (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo).

    Where does a newly-capitalized revitalized Gamestop fit into this in a way that leads to lasting, long term success? It's hard to envision the existing business getting profitable again; so much of Gamestop under Paul Raines was about trying to expand the retail product line to diversify it against any one of them declining, but then he died from brain cancer and the leadership started selling off all the non-game business for cash. At one point Gamestop ran the single largest exclusive retail outlets for one of the major U.S. phone carriers, at a comfortable profit! And then divested it in order to burn a hundred million propping up the failing game business.

    They tried diversifying, and self-amputated it all in the name of hitting analyst expectations for a quarterly earnings report because the CEO who championed the expansion couldn't object due to being six feet under.

    It has become a deeply mismanaged company and the new leadership is going to have an uphill battle trying to turn it into something it isn't. I would wish them well, except I'm pretty sure everyone in the C-suite has a Plan B that solely consists of "quit while my stock options are worth a fucking fortune."

    They no longer have burdensome debt payments requiring quick sales of sustainable/profitable units

    They could be anything, just like how Nintendo used to be a card company

    Would they be better at being anything else than some random startup with a ton of investments would be? Nintendo switched from creating one type of thing to creating another type of thing, and got to keep much of their talent in doing so through the transition. Gamestop never created anything, and a bunch of generic retail space isn't going to help them become anything else. The only unique assets that they have are the management that tanked the company in the first place.

  • Options
    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    I don't know that there is a future, successful Gamestop that in any way resembles last year's struggling, possibly-doomed Gamestop.

    Like sure there could be a Gamestop three years from now that consistently produces profitable quarters, but is that a Gamestop selling video games in malls and strip malls? Is it even a Gamestop selling video games on the internet? Both of those industries have headwinds: in the case of physical retail, the strangulation of retail by the combined forces of late stage capitalism (private equity, the rentier class squeezing those stones for blood ever harder) and shifting consumer preferences (digital distribution); in the latter case, a field dominated by a handful of established players already engaged in a race to the bottom (Steam and Epic), and proprietary first party distribution platforms which lock out competition (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo).

    Where does a newly-capitalized revitalized Gamestop fit into this in a way that leads to lasting, long term success? It's hard to envision the existing business getting profitable again; so much of Gamestop under Paul Raines was about trying to expand the retail product line to diversify it against any one of them declining, but then he died from brain cancer and the leadership started selling off all the non-game business for cash. At one point Gamestop ran the single largest exclusive retail outlets for one of the major U.S. phone carriers, at a comfortable profit! And then divested it in order to burn a hundred million propping up the failing game business.

    They tried diversifying, and self-amputated it all in the name of hitting analyst expectations for a quarterly earnings report because the CEO who championed the expansion couldn't object due to being six feet under.

    It has become a deeply mismanaged company and the new leadership is going to have an uphill battle trying to turn it into something it isn't. I would wish them well, except I'm pretty sure everyone in the C-suite has a Plan B that solely consists of "quit while my stock options are worth a fucking fortune."

    They no longer have burdensome debt payments requiring quick sales of sustainable/profitable units

    They could be anything, just like how Nintendo used to be a card company

    Would they be better at being anything else than some random startup with a ton of investments would be? Nintendo switched from creating one type of thing to creating another type of thing, and got to keep much of their talent in doing so through the transition. Gamestop never created anything, and a bunch of generic retail space isn't going to help them become anything else. The only unique assets that they have are the management that tanked the company in the first place.

    I’m not saying they have it easy, and this is probably a good way of looking at it. I’m just saying they at least have taken some of the “necessary least-bad choice-making” out of the equation.

  • Options
    CambiataCambiata Commander Shepard The likes of which even GAWD has never seenRegistered User regular
    edited April 2021
    jothki wrote: »
    GME completed their equity offering today, diluting the share pool by 3.5m for about $551m. The stock spiked to $198 after hours after increasing $20 over the day.

    https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program

    So... to recap. Ryan Cohen (Now chairman board) and his Chewy and Amazon crew are in control of the board of directors, the CEO is on his way out, GME is completely debt free with zero restrictions, the stock is around $185, and they also have about $600-700m on hand cash to begin the restructuring of the company.

    It's happening.gif?

    I don't know that there is a future, successful Gamestop that in any way resembles last year's struggling, possibly-doomed Gamestop.

    Like sure there could be a Gamestop three years from now that consistently produces profitable quarters, but is that a Gamestop selling video games in malls and strip malls? Is it even a Gamestop selling video games on the internet? Both of those industries have headwinds: in the case of physical retail, the strangulation of retail by the combined forces of late stage capitalism (private equity, the rentier class squeezing those stones for blood ever harder) and shifting consumer preferences (digital distribution); in the latter case, a field dominated by a handful of established players already engaged in a race to the bottom (Steam and Epic), and proprietary first party distribution platforms which lock out competition (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo).

    Where does a newly-capitalized revitalized Gamestop fit into this in a way that leads to lasting, long term success? It's hard to envision the existing business getting profitable again; so much of Gamestop under Paul Raines was about trying to expand the retail product line to diversify it against any one of them declining, but then he died from brain cancer and the leadership started selling off all the non-game business for cash. At one point Gamestop ran the single largest exclusive retail outlets for one of the major U.S. phone carriers, at a comfortable profit! And then divested it in order to burn a hundred million propping up the failing game business.

    They tried diversifying, and self-amputated it all in the name of hitting analyst expectations for a quarterly earnings report because the CEO who championed the expansion couldn't object due to being six feet under.

    It has become a deeply mismanaged company and the new leadership is going to have an uphill battle trying to turn it into something it isn't. I would wish them well, except I'm pretty sure everyone in the C-suite has a Plan B that solely consists of "quit while my stock options are worth a fucking fortune."

    They no longer have burdensome debt payments requiring quick sales of sustainable/profitable units

    They could be anything, just like how Nintendo used to be a card company

    Would they be better at being anything else than some random startup with a ton of investments would be? Nintendo switched from creating one type of thing to creating another type of thing, and got to keep much of their talent in doing so through the transition. Gamestop never created anything, and a bunch of generic retail space isn't going to help them become anything else. The only unique assets that they have are the management that tanked the company in the first place.

    I find it weird that people keep going back to how no one can sell games in strip malls anymore therefore gamestop is doomed.

    The thing is, they have their infrastructure, they're debt-free, they already have an established website, and they have a recognizable brand. What they are is retail. One kind of retail is not that different from another kind. They can just peddle something else, online-only. Nintendo "just made another kind of game", Gamestop will "just retail a different type of item." It's not like they have to create and design the items they retail, after all. (Though like ThinkGeek, they could also go into that business too if they wanted).

    I've mentioned it multiple times before in this thread but they own ThinkGeek and I used to love ThinkGeek and bought from there frequently. Even when I wasn't making that much money I'd buy novelty items like a bank that looks like Bender from Futurama or some miracle fruit tablets. Gamestop could just be a ThinkGeek-style retailer from now on, the pieces are all there.

    Cambiata on
    Peace to fashion police, I wear my heart
    On my sleeve, let the runway start
  • Options
    MrMonroeMrMonroe passed out on the floor nowRegistered User regular
    I can't tell if you're suggesting this already knowing or not knowing that Gamestop bought ThinkGeek in 2015.

  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited April 2021
    Gamestop is still not projected to turn a profit until 2023. I mean, great Chewy is a nice website... and they made their first profit 4Q in 2020 four years after it was bought by Petsmart and Cohen left. This isn't Warren Buffett taking over or something

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    CambiataCambiata Commander Shepard The likes of which even GAWD has never seenRegistered User regular
    MrMonroe wrote: »
    I can't tell if you're suggesting this already knowing or not knowing that Gamestop bought ThinkGeek in 2015.
    Cambiata wrote: »
    I've mentioned it multiple times before in this thread but they own ThinkGeek and I used to love ThinkGeek and bought from there frequently. Even when I wasn't making that much money I'd buy novelty items like a bank that looks like Bender from Futurama or some miracle fruit tablets. Gamestop could just be a ThinkGeek-style retailer from now on, the pieces are all there.

    Peace to fashion police, I wear my heart
    On my sleeve, let the runway start
  • Options
    SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited April 2021
    Fuckin board games, do demo nights and shit, it's so fuckin straightforward as a lateral movement. Literally still a game stop. It's just different games you're stopping for.

    Sleep on
  • Options
    HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    Cambiata wrote: »
    Gamestop could just be a ThinkGeek-style retailer from now on, the pieces are all there.

    At its best, ThinkGeek never had much more than $100 million/year in revenues.

    At its peak, Gamestop had just shy of $10 billion/year in revenues, about 100 times bigger than ThinkGeek. Even now, after five years of steep declines, they're still bringing in over $5 billion/year in sales.

    There just isn't that big a market for T-shirts, posters, and stuffed animals for nerd culture. A Gamestop that moved entirely into the ThinkGeek space would be a Gamestop that's shed at least 80-90% of their current cashflow. Maybe they shift their business away from selling physical games in physical storefronts, but a retailer with a $12 billion market cap needs to be selling something that moves an awful lot of product.

  • Options
    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Fuckin board games, do demo nights and shit, it's so fuckin straightforward as a lateral movement. Literally still a game stop. It's just different games you're stopping for.

    Sure, there's a local chain of board game shops in malls up here and they do exactly that at several locations. Or, you know, did, pandemic and all. But those were a good way to spend an evening and definitely led to me buying a couple things (though to be honest, it's not like running a game night costs a whole lot either).

    Steam: Polaritie
    3DS: 0473-8507-2652
    Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
    PSN: AbEntropy
  • Options
    CambiataCambiata Commander Shepard The likes of which even GAWD has never seenRegistered User regular
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    Cambiata wrote: »
    Gamestop could just be a ThinkGeek-style retailer from now on, the pieces are all there.

    At its best, ThinkGeek never had much more than $100 million/year in revenues.

    At its peak, Gamestop had just shy of $10 billion/year in revenues, about 100 times bigger than ThinkGeek. Even now, after five years of steep declines, they're still bringing in over $5 billion/year in sales.

    There just isn't that big a market for T-shirts, posters, and stuffed animals for nerd culture. A Gamestop that moved entirely into the ThinkGeek space would be a Gamestop that's shed at least 80-90% of their current cashflow. Maybe they shift their business away from selling physical games in physical storefronts, but a retailer with a $12 billion market cap needs to be selling something that moves an awful lot of product.

    There weren't any pet stores competing with Amazon online until Chewy revamped, either.

    I'm not saying it won't take work, but all this "oh, it's impossible for them to retail anything" nonsense is just silly. A lot of people are disillusioned with Amazon, so find a specific niche and sell to it. Maybe ThinkGeek-style retail is only a section of what they can be doing. Maybe with the right marketing they can take ThinkGeek into a billion-dollar market. Who knows? The only thing we do know is that they can't survive on video games as a product anymore, so they'll have to find other avenues.

    Peace to fashion police, I wear my heart
    On my sleeve, let the runway start
Sign In or Register to comment.