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Pardon my French [Canadian Politics Thread]

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Posts

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited September 21
    Tenek wrote: »
    Handkor wrote: »
    Tenek wrote: »
    Handkor wrote: »
    Everything is still swinging wildly but I'm liking the seat change predictions right now, if they hold NDP picks up a handful of seats while BQ and LPC lose some. This will increase the NDP balance of power in the minority.

    I don't think it really works like that. If the Liberals don't get 170 by themselves but they can with either the BQ or the NDP then it's basically the same result regardless of the exact numbers.

    True but they need enough seats to get to 170 together. More importantly it will help the NDP for the next election to appear as a stronger/growing party and seeing the BQ shrink is always good after we thought they were dead.

    Edit: Also I like seeing this map of Canada with patches of four different colors.

    I think the main impact of the NDP improving is forcing the game of chicken with the Liberals - either enact proportional representation, or let the Conservatives take over.

    If we take the current numbers, though (LPC 156 BQ 29 NDP 28) then the NDP magically yoinking 10 seats from the Bloc would not change the calculus on any particular bill: L + B = 175 and that's still a pass.

    Kind of fucked up, though - I'm watching the CBC gush over the massive impact of the PPC, saving the Liberals in a number of seats, while they show right there on the screen that the NDP has triple their vote total.

    It doesn't matter how the NDP is doing overall if the Cons are second place and losing because the PPC is siphoning off votes. Only a change from last time indicating the NDP was siphoning votes from the Liberals (or somehow the Cons I guess) would be relevant. That's how spoilers work.

    shryke on
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited September 21
    Richy wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    CBC just called it for the liberals. Didn't specify what type of government.

    TVA did as well.

    EDIT: calling it a minority, and openly wondering if this election is the mistake that will cost Trudeau his leadership of the party.

    I never get this take. He called an election, he's still PM. That's called winning.

    Kicking out the guy who keeps winning is a dumb move.

    shryke on
    AridholSteelhawkAutomautocratesGnome-Interruptus
  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    It doesn't matter how the NDP is doing if the Cons are second place and losing because the PPC is siphoning off votes.

    The point is that if you're looking at the PPC as a spoiler you're generally glossing over the much larger spoiler.

    One thing I'm thinking in retrospect, though... all that stuff from the debate commission over Bernier not getting an invite when his party more than doubled the Greens (plus or minus, final results outstanding etc.) It's certainly convenient on some level that the rules (barely) kept him out but that also means there was a reasonable chance (leader denied debate access) that it made a material impact on the result.

    ArcticLancerGnome-InterruptusCanadianWolverine
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Richy wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    CBC just called it for the liberals. Didn't specify what type of government.

    TVA did as well.

    EDIT: calling it a minority, and openly wondering if this election is the mistake that will cost Trudeau his leadership of the party.

    I never get this take. He called an election, he's still PM. That's called winning.

    Kicking out the guy who keeps winning is a dumb move.

    He called an election to get a majority, and instead shrunk his minority. This is hardly the victory he was going for.

    But you are correct that he still has a lot of clout as the leader who won three times in a row against three CPC leaders. He has a lot of clout, and will be very difficult to dislodge against his will.

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Richy wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    CBC just called it for the liberals. Didn't specify what type of government.

    TVA did as well.

    EDIT: calling it a minority, and openly wondering if this election is the mistake that will cost Trudeau his leadership of the party.

    I never get this take. He called an election, he's still PM. That's called winning.

    Kicking out the guy who keeps winning is a dumb move.

    He called an election to get a majority, and instead shrunk his minority. This is hardly the victory he was going for.

    But you are correct that he still has a lot of clout as the leader who won three times in a row against three CPC leaders. He has a lot of clout, and will be very difficult to dislodge against his will.

    Projections I'm seeing seem to suggest his minority didn't even shrink. The Liberals and CPC may well end up with the exact same number of seats. Or off by like 1.

    Gnome-Interruptus
  • The Cow KingThe Cow King a island Registered User regular
    edited September 21
    Tenek wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    It doesn't matter how the NDP is doing if the Cons are second place and losing because the PPC is siphoning off votes.

    The point is that if you're looking at the PPC as a spoiler you're generally glossing over the much larger spoiler.

    One thing I'm thinking in retrospect, though... all that stuff from the debate commission over Bernier not getting an invite when his party more than doubled the Greens (plus or minus, final results outstanding etc.) It's certainly convenient on some level that the rules (barely) kept him out but that also means there was a reasonable chance (leader denied debate access) that it made a material impact on the result.

    Imperial core media ignores things to the left to focus on laughing at the right for free air time and so do most liberals news at 11

    The Cow King on
    icGJy2C.png
    CanadianWolverine
  • TenekTenek Registered User regular
    wtf O'Toole "We are the founding party of this country" If the CPC was a person it wouldn't be eligible to vote in this election.

    LordSolarMachariusArcticLancerImperfect
  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    O'toole "We need to come together and heal division"

    Also O'Toole "Fuck Justin, seriously"

  • KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    I don't think the Liberals won, but they managed not to lose

    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
    Gnome-Interruptus
  • I needed a gnome to post.I needed a gnome to post. boom Registered User regular
    n1y6vj6xzf0w.png

    liEt3nH.png
    KetBraMechMantisCelloThe Cow KingBionicPenguinApogeeGnome-Interruptus
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Eesh, I was expecting to not see a lot of change for sure, but I wasn't expecting "basically status quo ante for all the parties."

    ArcticLancer
  • HerrCronHerrCron It that wickedly supports taxation Registered User regular
    It's only my second one, but I am enjoying the election night tradition of "Maxime Bernier gets run out of town on a rail"

    sig.gif
    CelloFencingsaxRear Admiral ChocoAutomautocratesRichyTeriferinGnome-InterruptusEl MuchoBouwsTDisco11CanadianWolverine
  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I predict that everyone's stressed out and just wants it over with and we'll end up exactly where we are now.

    I bet $1 on it.

    ArcticLancerImperfectCanadianWolverine
  • darkmayodarkmayo Registered User regular
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I predict that everyone's stressed out and just wants it over with and we'll end up exactly where we are now.

    I bet $1 on it.

    Well buy yourself a... umm 20 5 cent candies?

    Switch SW-6182-1526-0041
  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    darkmayo wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    Aridhol wrote: »
    I predict that everyone's stressed out and just wants it over with and we'll end up exactly where we are now.

    I bet $1 on it.

    Well buy yourself a... umm 20 5 cent candies?

    no. Everyone owes me a dollar. That's how it works.

    ApogeeBouwsT
  • djmitchelladjmitchella Registered User regular
    as I said in the se++ canada thread, may as well just re-run this one from the Beaverton from two years ago:

    6td30u2c7b34.png

    AegisAridholRichyBionicPenguinAutomautocratesTeriferinEvil MultifariousGnome-InterruptusEl MuchoLordSolarMachariusCanadianWolverine
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    The real question at this point is if the coalition that Trudeau was working with, will have more seats or not. He isn't getting a majority government, but if the results mean that the conservative parties have even less seats, that's still a decent consolation prize, if that means more votes or even enough votes to get things done. I'll admit, that I get the impression that Tradeau is a crappy politician, so I can see how that might not be a great deal for many of the actual voters.

  • AutomautocratesAutomautocrates Registered User regular
    Boo. Fillmore stays for Halifax, boo. By 2%.
    Was really hoping for Lisa Robert's given how orange the peninsula is, so close.

    The dictum that truth always triumphs over persecution is one of the pleasant falsehoods which men repeat after one another till they pass into commonplaces, but which all experience refutes.
    -John Stuart Mill
    ArcticLancerCanadianWolverine
  • DissociaterDissociater Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    So my election experience this morning was discouraging.

    I never got my voter registration card, so I went to elections.ca and put in my postal code only to be told that polling locations for my postal code were 'unavailable at this time'. Keep in mind I live in Liberty Village, one of the most densely populated neighbourhoods in Toronto. I wonder how many people this affected? So I called them and was on hold for over an hour and all the poor guy working there could do was also go to the elections.ca website which gave him the same result. So it had to be escalated but I finally found out that I was supposed to vote at the CNE, a 2 km walk from my location. I enjoyed the walk a lot but I could totally see this being yet another additional barrier to voting for some people.

    But I get to the actual voting centre, and it was this huge auditorium, with a grand total of 4 voting booths. There were about 15 people working there, and the entire time I was there there was only maybe 2 other people voting. There was no line to get in, and half the people there looked like they were on the verge of falling asleep from boredom. The woman who registered me told me it was like this all day so far, even during the morning 'rush', basically very few people are showing up to vote. My hopes are it's just because advanced voting and mail-in voting has taken a cut out of the number of people who want to vote in person. But given the demographic of liberty village (mostly 20-40 year olds), my hopes are low.

    Early voting is way up compared to 2019 and actually set a new record, and mail-in voting is through the roof. I'm not pessimistic about the voter turnout. Surprisingly, given that this has been by far the least inspiring election I've ever seen.

    So yeah, total votes cast this year, according to CBC in my riding was about 45000, in 2019 it was 61000. And this is the demographic of young people that we NEED coming out in higher numbers in the future. So I remain discouraged.

  • ArcticLancerArcticLancer Best served chilled. Registered User regular
    Boo. Fillmore stays for Halifax, boo. By 2%.
    Was really hoping for Lisa Robert's given how orange the peninsula is, so close.
    I also had big hopes that Lisa would come through. It was no better in Dartmouth. Results are about the same as last time around, but there's some interesting things to mull over ...
    2019:
    b1hv600mr07a.png

    2021:
    4o99c8j0ne76.png

    Turnout overall shrank by about ten-thousand, notwithstanding the apparently 1 unreported poll for the area. Despite that, the Liberal vote dropped only slightly, the NDP vote was impressively similar, and the green + right votes pretty much evaporated. You can see the PPC's Michelle Lindsay more than quadrupling her vote count due to a lack of a CPC candidate, but it makes me deeply curious how much of the would-be-CPC vote went to the LPC instead ... Of course from the flip side, would-be-greens probably voted orange and helped pad the NDP numbers too. So at the end of the day, the apathy of voters appears to be very real indeed. :/

    Automautocrates
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    So my election experience this morning was discouraging.

    I never got my voter registration card, so I went to elections.ca and put in my postal code only to be told that polling locations for my postal code were 'unavailable at this time'. Keep in mind I live in Liberty Village, one of the most densely populated neighbourhoods in Toronto. I wonder how many people this affected? So I called them and was on hold for over an hour and all the poor guy working there could do was also go to the elections.ca website which gave him the same result. So it had to be escalated but I finally found out that I was supposed to vote at the CNE, a 2 km walk from my location. I enjoyed the walk a lot but I could totally see this being yet another additional barrier to voting for some people.

    But I get to the actual voting centre, and it was this huge auditorium, with a grand total of 4 voting booths. There were about 15 people working there, and the entire time I was there there was only maybe 2 other people voting. There was no line to get in, and half the people there looked like they were on the verge of falling asleep from boredom. The woman who registered me told me it was like this all day so far, even during the morning 'rush', basically very few people are showing up to vote. My hopes are it's just because advanced voting and mail-in voting has taken a cut out of the number of people who want to vote in person. But given the demographic of liberty village (mostly 20-40 year olds), my hopes are low.

    Early voting is way up compared to 2019 and actually set a new record, and mail-in voting is through the roof. I'm not pessimistic about the voter turnout. Surprisingly, given that this has been by far the least inspiring election I've ever seen.

    So yeah, total votes cast this year, according to CBC in my riding was about 45000, in 2019 it was 61000. And this is the demographic of young people that we NEED coming out in higher numbers in the future. So I remain discouraged.

    Indeed, it seems I was wrongly optimistic. Elections Canada reports a voter turnout of 58.4%, which is the lowest ever. The silver lining is that it's not the worst by a large margin; the former lowest was 58.8% in 2008. Which means that given the election campaign we just had, it could have been worse I guess?

    sig.gif
    CanadianWolverine
  • AutomautocratesAutomautocrates Registered User regular
    Boo. Fillmore stays for Halifax, boo. By 2%.
    Was really hoping for Lisa Robert's given how orange the peninsula is, so close.
    I also had big hopes that Lisa would come through. It was no better in Dartmouth. Results are about the same as last time around, but there's some interesting things to mull over ...
    2019:
    b1hv600mr07a.png

    2021:
    4o99c8j0ne76.png

    Turnout overall shrank by about ten-thousand, notwithstanding the apparently 1 unreported poll for the area. Despite that, the Liberal vote dropped only slightly, the NDP vote was impressively similar, and the green + right votes pretty much evaporated. You can see the PPC's Michelle Lindsay more than quadrupling her vote count due to a lack of a CPC candidate, but it makes me deeply curious how much of the would-be-CPC vote went to the LPC instead ... Of course from the flip side, would-be-greens probably voted orange and helped pad the NDP numbers too. So at the end of the day, the apathy of voters appears to be very real indeed. :/

    Each district the ndp won in the provincial election is attached to a big chunk outside the city in the federal election. If the provincial "halifax atlantic" wasn't attached to halifax for the federal election then Fillmore never takes it. Kinda bogus. I dunno if the same is true of Dartmouth-coleharbor where the lead for Fisher is larger, but also PPC with 11% over there? Gross.

    The dictum that truth always triumphs over persecution is one of the pleasant falsehoods which men repeat after one another till they pass into commonplaces, but which all experience refutes.
    -John Stuart Mill
  • BogartBogart Gonna Be A Man In Motion Registered User, Moderator mod
    Someone make a new one of these, please.

This discussion has been closed.