NI results should be interesting enough even if there's nothing going on in your area. The DUP reaping all those dumb, dumb crops they had so much fun sowing over the last few years.
General impression is that whichever Unionist party emerges as the largest will continue to keep digging though. Either to demand the Protocol get fixed or, according to TUV election literature I personally perused, keep Sinn Fein away from the First Minister. They mentioned Sinn Fein even more than themselves. "Keep out the Shinners" is a time-honoured classic.
Harold Edward Holt CH (5 August 1908 – 17 December 1967) was an Australian politician who served as the 17th prime minister of Australia from 1966 until his presumed death in 1967.
...
Holt convinced the group to stop at remote Cheviot Beach for a swim before lunch – he had spearfished there on many previous occasions, and claimed to "know this beach like the back of my hand."
According to his companions, Holt had "incredible powers of endurance underwater", and sometimes kept himself amused during parliamentary debates by seeing how long he could hold his breath. Although he could tread water for long periods, he was not a strong surface swimmer.[7]
Several of Holt's friends confronted him about the dangers of his hobby, including his press secretary, Tony Eggleton, to whom Holt responded, "Look Tony, what are the odds of a prime minister being drowned or taken by a shark?" On 20 May 1967, Holt had a close call while diving at Cheviot Beach on the Mornington Peninsula, where he became distressed and called for help. Pulled ashore by his diving companions, he remained conscious, but turned purple and vomited a large amount of seawater. Holt attributed the incident to a leaking snorkel, and supposedly remarked, "That's the closest I have ever been to drowning in my life!"
Because of the rough conditions, only one other person, Alan Stewart, joined Holt in the water. Stewart kept close to shore, but Holt swam out into deeper water and was seemingly caught up in a rip, eventually disappearing from view. One of the witnesses, Marjorie Gillespie, described it as "like a leaf being taken out [...] so quick and final."
His death was commemorated in a number of ways, among them by the establishment of the Harold Holt Memorial Swimming Centre in Melbourne.
I cant wait for the opposition in Scotland to declare either A ) The SNPs increased share means nothing or B ) The SNPs decreased share indicates terminal decline
"Peak SNP" is a bit like Waiting for Godot.
The completely different numbers of candidates the 5 main parties have put up compared to 2017 is going to be utterly ignored by the press.
Democracy done!
Hopefully the Alliance and moderate vote has turned out on the day. I'm hopeful about the result as it's the first time in ages that the DUP have looked seriously threatened and they (and the unionists in general) really need to be knocked off their perch.
The DUP have dug themselves such a hole that they ought to be hammered at the polls. They have basically no policy other than 'rave about the protocol and Sinn Fein'. They actually had to try and pivot from 'rant about the protocol' to 'Sinn Fein Border poll!' since the anti-protocol line simply wasn't resonating with all but a small minority of hardline unionists, and most of them will vote for the even more hardline party anyway. Of course it doesn't help that they caused the protocol in the first place. Then, of course, they brought down stormont. Suffice to say, this is a very unpopular thing to do over here - ironically in part due to the DUP (wrongfully) blaming Sinn Fein for bringing it down last time. That they brought it down after months of half hearted deadlines over a protocol that few care about is just the icing on the cake.
On top of it all, Donaldson just isn't a good leader. He has virtually no charisma, and got there by mounting a coup. There was a TV debate on tuesday among the party leaders, and it was basically a 4v1 pile on where Donaldson couldn't provide any real answers and floundered badly. It was great to see. I do wonder what'll happen when they have a bad result?
Democracy done!
Hopefully the Alliance and moderate vote has turned out on the day. I'm hopeful about the result as it's the first time in ages that the DUP have looked seriously threatened and they (and the unionists in general) really need to be knocked off their perch.
The DUP have dug themselves such a hole that they ought to be hammered at the polls. They have basically no policy other than 'rave about the protocol and Sinn Fein'. They actually had to try and pivot from 'rant about the protocol' to 'Sinn Fein Border poll!' since the anti-protocol line simply wasn't resonating with all but a small minority of hardline unionists, and most of them will vote for the even more hardline party anyway. Of course it doesn't help that they caused the protocol in the first place. Then, of course, they brought down stormont. Suffice to say, this is a very unpopular thing to do over here - ironically in part due to the DUP (wrongfully) blaming Sinn Fein for bringing it down last time. That they brought it down after months of half hearted deadlines over a protocol that few care about is just the icing on the cake.
On top of it all, Donaldson just isn't a good leader. He has virtually no charisma, and got there by mounting a coup. There was a TV debate on tuesday among the party leaders, and it was basically a 4v1 pile on where Donaldson couldn't provide any real answers and floundered badly. It was great to see. I do wonder what'll happen when they have a bad result?
My Mum's a poll volunteer and at lunchtime reported her station was pretty busy compared to last time. Entirely anecdotal but maybe it means something.
Also while Michelle O'Neill said in an interview back in March that maybe we should start having the conversation of what reunification will look like, I'm confident Sinn Fein won't touch a border poll until they're certain of victory. I think we've all seen the perils of asking a referendum question you don't know the answer to in the past decade.
Yeah, the 'Sinn Fein border poll!' cry didn't work at all. Nobody actually bought it, not least because Sinn Fein have very deliberately been playing it down and dismissing the notion for now. It came across as paranoid and desparate more than anything.
It was very sparse when I went down to vote, but not that surprising for the time of day. The turnout seemed to be about 35-40% at 5pm (going off what they had on the wall). No idea how that compares to normal though.
Some bizarre rumours reported by the Guardian Live blog that if Boris makes it through, he'll call for a general election in Autumn. Not sure if that's arrogance or spite...
I don't see what kind of results tomorrow could bring that would give him that kind of confidence. Even if the results are better than expected that's a big step to take.
If they don't lose too badly, the calculus might be, "well, people don't seem to care about the current scandals enough to lose us our majority, but they might about the next lot, so let's capitalise on that and then we don't have to keep pretending we're going to lower taxes in 2024"
Some bizarre rumours reported by the Guardian Live blog that if Boris makes it through, he'll call for a general election in Autumn. Not sure if that's arrogance or spite...
They have years left and Boris wants to shorten it? What?
Our leccy bill just today increased by over double regular prices pushing us into shit street and we're not alone. That's not going to be good for the Tories as more and more people get hit. Autumn is before Winter when things get worse I guess? Or do they just not want to deal with the crisis and just fuck off?
Some bizarre rumours reported by the Guardian Live blog that if Boris makes it through, he'll call for a general election in Autumn. Not sure if that's arrogance or spite...
They have years left and Boris wants to shorten it? What?
Our leccy bill just today increased by over double regular prices pushing us into shit street and we're not alone. That's not going to be good for the Tories as more and more people get hit. Autumn is before Winter when things get worse I guess? Or do they just not want to deal with the crisis and just fuck off?
This makes no sense.
I'm thinking that's the rub.
Try and weather the storm of scandals, and get a full term to unfuck things (which I guess the Tory plan is to just let it happen and hope people forget/get used to it).
Or worst case, you lose, Labour get in, you get to blame them for all the problems you're kicking down the road (energy issue, eventual Brexit comeuppance, etc), and have a clear shot at things again when Labor fail.
There's a bill coming due, and getting 5 years for people to forget, or a patsy to blame, isn't a bad political move when the electorate are shown to not properly assign blame.
Given the last few years, it seems elections are called just so they can operate unhindered for a good 18 months under the obfuscation of a mandate. Boris is so fucked at this point it might be his only chance to regain any credibility.
Given the last few years, it seems elections are called just so they can operate unhindered for a good 18 months under the obfuscation of a mandate. Boris is so fucked at this point it might be his only chance to regain any credibility.
This is probably the only calculus in his head.
The sharks are circling, and if their shit gets pushed in in these local elections common wisdom would probably be that they should replace Boris ASAP and try to dig the party out of the hole before a general election.
But if Boris schedules one that soon they won't want to make a show of being fractured enough to replace the boss. A job guarantee until Autumn would be a serious improvement over what he's had for the last few months, so he could go for a Hail Mary; if he loses at least he held out that long, and if he wins he's probably secured it for the foreseeable future.
My prediction would be for it to be timed for the next round of Cost of Living Crisis to go up, and for Boris to make a big show about the help he's giving us then.
Given the last few years, it seems elections are called just so they can operate unhindered for a good 18 months under the obfuscation of a mandate. Boris is so fucked at this point it might be his only chance to regain any credibility.
This is probably the only calculus in his head.
The sharks are circling, and if their shit gets pushed in in these local elections common wisdom would probably be that they should replace Boris ASAP and try to dig the party out of the hole before a general election.
But if Boris schedules one that soon they won't want to make a show of being fractured enough to replace the boss. A job guarantee until Autumn would be a serious improvement over what he's had for the last few months, so he could go for a Hail Mary; if he loses at least he held out that long, and if he wins he's probably secured it for the foreseeable future.
My prediction would be for it to be timed for the next round of Cost of Living Crisis to go up, and for Boris to make a big show about the help he's giving us then.
Given the last few years, it seems elections are called just so they can operate unhindered for a good 18 months under the obfuscation of a mandate. Boris is so fucked at this point it might be his only chance to regain any credibility.
This is probably the only calculus in his head.
The sharks are circling, and if their shit gets pushed in in these local elections common wisdom would probably be that they should replace Boris ASAP and try to dig the party out of the hole before a general election.
But if Boris schedules one that soon they won't want to make a show of being fractured enough to replace the boss. A job guarantee until Autumn would be a serious improvement over what he's had for the last few months, so he could go for a Hail Mary; if he loses at least he held out that long, and if he wins he's probably secured it for the foreseeable future.
My prediction would be for it to be timed for the next round of Cost of Living Crisis to go up, and for Boris to make a big show about the help he's giving us then.
That depends on them actually giving help
I'd expect something like a big noise and a big sounding promise, like the help we're getting with our energy bills (to be repaid in future energy bills, so a loan rather than actual help).
It doesn't have to be impressive, just sound like it.
Yeah, thinking about it/lettering it fester I could easily see it as being "If you survive this Leadership challenge, you've got a year as the winner before they can do it again. You're a good campaigner* and considered more charismatic than Starmer, so a GE now will get you those 18 months to finish your term, and Vladimir might launch nukes after that so at least you'll be in the bunker...
The results for Labour are still pretty pathetic. Open corruption and cronyism, active ministers telling people to buy value brands or take advantage of 24 hour bus passes, and the reports still say that outside of London, Labour has made only modest gains. Of course it's local councillor elections so turnout was probably low and people don't necessarily care enough to vote compared to a general election. The PNS will apparently be out later today to show projected GE results.
Starmer needs to do more, he's virtually invisible on the national stage when he should be the public face of anti-Boris. And if Labour gets in they need to look seriously at implementing PR, because as things currently are, FPTP is working against them as much as anyone else at this point.
Mum confirmed yesterday was pretty busy for her. Roughly 70% turnout by her reckoning. NI always had decent turnout, but that seems above average. We'll see what that translates to later today, I don't think they counted overnight.
+5
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Mojo_JojoWe are only now beginning to understand the full power and ramifications of sexual intercourseRegistered Userregular
It's lovely waking up to a sad blur bar. A shame it's only councils. But I'll take it
Homogeneous distribution of your varieties of amuse-gueule
The results for Labour are certainly not pathetic, but they're not that great either. Winning Tory councils in London that were blue even through the Blair years when Tories were an endangered species is pretty good, failing to get through to ex-Labour voters in Leave areas is far less good.
These results only further reinforce the view that the tactic must be Tories v Rest of the World. Labour cannot win a GE outright, it looks like they've lost their traditional heartlands now but that doesn't matter if Lab / SNP / Lib Dems can work tactically together through the next few years.
The results for Labour are certainly not pathetic, but they're not that great either. Winning Tory councils in London that were blue even through the Blair years when Tories were an endangered species is pretty good, failing to get through to ex-Labour voters in Leave areas is far less good.
We need to find some sort of statistic that produces the number 3.6 so we can say the thing.
The results for Labour are certainly not pathetic, but they're not that great either. Winning Tory councils in London that were blue even through the Blair years when Tories were an endangered species is pretty good, failing to get through to ex-Labour voters in Leave areas is far less good.
The brexit house of cards is yet to fall down. Until then Labour will struggle to make gains in pro leave areas.
In the minds of most Brexiters I doubt things will ever make them change their mind. Economic negatives will be written off as unimportant and not the reason they voted to Leave in the first place and besides they're down to something else anyway.
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General impression is that whichever Unionist party emerges as the largest will continue to keep digging though. Either to demand the Protocol get fixed or, according to TUV election literature I personally perused, keep Sinn Fein away from the First Minister. They mentioned Sinn Fein even more than themselves. "Keep out the Shinners" is a time-honoured classic.
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eyes narrow suspiciously but also lol
He can go fuck himself.
Needs more daschunds.
If there's one thing I've learned about Australian politics, it's that elections have sausages.
Either way, I don't want to see sausages being made, politics being made, or dachshunds being made.
what i learned from australian politics is that u cannot fight the power of cosmic irony
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Holt
Honestly though this is about the most indecided I've ever been in a ballot box. Pure spite was the only thing stopping me spoiling the ballot.
I did my basic junior scuba certification there (since lapsed).
My mum always found that hilarious.
"Peak SNP" is a bit like Waiting for Godot.
The completely different numbers of candidates the 5 main parties have put up compared to 2017 is going to be utterly ignored by the press.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
Hopefully the Alliance and moderate vote has turned out on the day. I'm hopeful about the result as it's the first time in ages that the DUP have looked seriously threatened and they (and the unionists in general) really need to be knocked off their perch.
The DUP have dug themselves such a hole that they ought to be hammered at the polls. They have basically no policy other than 'rave about the protocol and Sinn Fein'. They actually had to try and pivot from 'rant about the protocol' to 'Sinn Fein Border poll!' since the anti-protocol line simply wasn't resonating with all but a small minority of hardline unionists, and most of them will vote for the even more hardline party anyway. Of course it doesn't help that they caused the protocol in the first place. Then, of course, they brought down stormont. Suffice to say, this is a very unpopular thing to do over here - ironically in part due to the DUP (wrongfully) blaming Sinn Fein for bringing it down last time. That they brought it down after months of half hearted deadlines over a protocol that few care about is just the icing on the cake.
On top of it all, Donaldson just isn't a good leader. He has virtually no charisma, and got there by mounting a coup. There was a TV debate on tuesday among the party leaders, and it was basically a 4v1 pile on where Donaldson couldn't provide any real answers and floundered badly. It was great to see. I do wonder what'll happen when they have a bad result?
My Mum's a poll volunteer and at lunchtime reported her station was pretty busy compared to last time. Entirely anecdotal but maybe it means something.
It was very sparse when I went down to vote, but not that surprising for the time of day. The turnout seemed to be about 35-40% at 5pm (going off what they had on the wall). No idea how that compares to normal though.
They have years left and Boris wants to shorten it? What?
Our leccy bill just today increased by over double regular prices pushing us into shit street and we're not alone. That's not going to be good for the Tories as more and more people get hit. Autumn is before Winter when things get worse I guess? Or do they just not want to deal with the crisis and just fuck off?
This makes no sense.
I'm thinking that's the rub.
Try and weather the storm of scandals, and get a full term to unfuck things (which I guess the Tory plan is to just let it happen and hope people forget/get used to it).
Or worst case, you lose, Labour get in, you get to blame them for all the problems you're kicking down the road (energy issue, eventual Brexit comeuppance, etc), and have a clear shot at things again when Labor fail.
There's a bill coming due, and getting 5 years for people to forget, or a patsy to blame, isn't a bad political move when the electorate are shown to not properly assign blame.
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The sharks are circling, and if their shit gets pushed in in these local elections common wisdom would probably be that they should replace Boris ASAP and try to dig the party out of the hole before a general election.
But if Boris schedules one that soon they won't want to make a show of being fractured enough to replace the boss. A job guarantee until Autumn would be a serious improvement over what he's had for the last few months, so he could go for a Hail Mary; if he loses at least he held out that long, and if he wins he's probably secured it for the foreseeable future.
My prediction would be for it to be timed for the next round of Cost of Living Crisis to go up, and for Boris to make a big show about the help he's giving us then.
That depends on them actually giving help
I'd expect something like a big noise and a big sounding promise, like the help we're getting with our energy bills (to be repaid in future energy bills, so a loan rather than actual help).
It doesn't have to be impressive, just sound like it.
*against Corbyn, fridge not withstanding
I'm keeping track with the Guardian
Starmer needs to do more, he's virtually invisible on the national stage when he should be the public face of anti-Boris. And if Labour gets in they need to look seriously at implementing PR, because as things currently are, FPTP is working against them as much as anyone else at this point.
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We need to find some sort of statistic that produces the number 3.6 so we can say the thing.
The brexit house of cards is yet to fall down. Until then Labour will struggle to make gains in pro leave areas.
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