I think we're all completely on board with the SNP running in the rest of the UK.
I'm most surprised that there isn't much Green going on there. I thought their core demographic was 18-25, i.e. uni students who will no longer vote lib dem
Maybe the Lib Dems saying they are anti-Brexit has re-won them a lot of those votes.
I think we're all completely on board with the SNP running in the rest of the UK.
I'm most surprised that there isn't much Green going on there. I thought their core demographic was 18-25, i.e. uni students who will no longer vote lib dem
I'm guessing that the Greens would still suffer from FPTP in a hypothetical 18-24's only election.
If only they voted in numbers greater than "just over half, at best".
Like always and everywhere the problem is young people don't vote and are thus very useless whereas dumb old people who are getting brainwashed by Facebook vote like it's a requirement for getting their government checks.
I believe there was a huge increase at the last election of double figure percentage points in young people voting, and that was just enough to push it over into "just over half". Meanwhile, all old people in the country lever themselves out of their rotting armchairs, turn off Cash In The Attic, hobble slowly down to the polling station and vote Tory.
I don't imagine Corbyn seemingly selling their future down the river for a JOBS FIRST BREXIT is going to encourage them to chant his name and vote for him like he's the messiah next time around.
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
one of the problems with youth turnout is that low youth turnout is a literal universal - there is no society where the YOUTS vote at the same rate as the over 50s. none. so there is almost an argument this needs to be somehow priced into electoral systems...
also i very much feel sorry for the writers of satire right now:
I'm in a pickle where I really like my Labour MP who has voted throughout Brexit in a way I agree with, but I am sick to death of labor in general and do not want to vote for them. But that's how people become disaffected with voting. And yet there's no real alternative, even though my MP is pretty great.
If I'm feeling this and I live in hipster central where my MP listens to the people I can't imagine how frustrating it is in other constituencies.
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jaziekBad at everythingAnd mad about it.Registered Userregular
Absolutely love how many replies to that tweet are just the same Chamberlain photo.
What are the odds of the EU telling May to stick her 30th of June extension and take the rolling 12 month or leave?
the modal outcome is the eu saying "we will grant your request by giving you a very long extension that is endable so if you get your thing through you can leave then but otherwise it goes on as long as necessary to minimise disruption"
100% i hope the EU do this
There is no reason to play her game or give her what she wants, we'll just be back here having this exact same conversation on the 29th of June. Longer extension gives us more time for Parliament to kneecap her.
We do seem to have reached a weird kind of equilibrium
There's little point in the EU doing anything further: the WA isn't changing and they don't particularly want to force a no deal brexit
The UK remains pretty much deadlocked.
Various people are joking about the UK remaining permanently in extension-land but actually it seems like there's a non trivial chance of that happening
Why has the EU (or the relevant members) backed off on forcing an outcome one way or the other? Which I thought they were keen on as little as a month ago.
I'm in a pickle where I really like my Labour MP who has voted throughout Brexit in a way I agree with, but I am sick to death of labor in general and do not want to vote for them. But that's how people become disaffected with voting. And yet there's no real alternative, even though my MP is pretty great.
If I'm feeling this and I live in hipster central where my MP listens to the people I can't imagine how frustrating it is in other constituencies.
My MP (Tory) ostensibly supported Remain in the referendum campaign, but since then has only voted for the hardest possible Brexit options, preferably no deal. It's maddening and baffling, but hey, Tory.
All I can really do is vote against him, and I do, but it's a safe seat.
Why has the EU (or the relevant members) backed off on forcing an outcome one way or the other? Which I thought they were keen on as little as a month ago.
They seem to be edging towards the idea that brexit as a process is not actually that disruptive, combined with a general desire not to be seen to do anything that could be interpreted as "forcing the UK out" which would feed the betrayal narrative, or do anything that drops Ireland in the shit
What is disruptive is having to bring the eu27 leaders together every two weeks to have pointless conversations with May
But: we've reached the point where those conversations are no longer really required. The deal is there, the EU 27 have decided what happens when it is implemented. There's nothing to do but wait for the UK to stop flailing around in its own shit.
There's a case to be made for: there is the door, leave when you're ready, but we are not spending any more time on this
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Why has the EU (or the relevant members) backed off on forcing an outcome one way or the other? Which I thought they were keen on as little as a month ago.
Assuming that they actually are backing off on having a hard deadline, it'd probably be because they're worried that the UK would end up going no-deal and they believe that the negatives from that outweigh any possible benefits that might result. Probably why Rees-Mogg is threatening to stink things up for the EU if there is a long extension, increase the downside to the UK staying in the EU so that they don't keep extending the extensions.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Reuters has more on the French government’s response to Theresa May’s letter to Donald Tusk. A source close to President Macron told the agency that France was not ready to accept an extension of article 50 unless the UK presented a clear plan for the future and added: “We’re not there today.”
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
Why has the EU (or the relevant members) backed off on forcing an outcome one way or the other? Which I thought they were keen on as little as a month ago.
They seem to be edging towards the idea that brexit as a process is not actually that disruptive, combined with a general desire not to be seen to do anything that could be interpreted as "forcing the UK out" which would feed the betrayal narrative, or do anything that drops Ireland in the shit
What is disruptive is having to bring the eu27 leaders together every two weeks to have pointless conversations with May
But: we've reached the point where those conversations are no longer really required. The deal is there, the EU 27 have decided what happens when it is implemented. There's nothing to do but wait for the UK to stop flailing around in its own shit.
There's a case to be made for: there is the door, leave when you're ready, but we are not spending any more time on this
The Brexit process really isnt disruptive for the EU27. All the business that's fleeing the UK is just going to one of them, their currencies are staying stable and the longer this goes on the stupider we look and the more the case for anyone else leaving gets torpedoed.
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
A situation where the UK could show up at any time and go "we've decided to Brexit, bye" seems completely untenable.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
the erg position increasingly seems to be that 1) the more they can stick the long extension "betrayal" on may specifically the better 2) getting rid of her, getting a hard brexit leader + general election gives them a much higher chance of a hard brexit than trying to fuck around with current parliament/party 3) the eu appearing to impose it is also good for them
i would be surprised if a significant number did not vote aye on a labour-introduced no confidence if one happened shortly after 12 april. there have been murmurings from people adjacent to them for a while that a long extension isnt actually bad for them, so...
A situation where the UK could show up at any time and go "we've decided to Brexit, bye" seems completely untenable.
the structure they've been considering requires mutual consent - uk and eu - and only contains one major event (uk passes some version of wa or revoke) vs a thousand small extension requests each requiring consent from everybody
mays extension request already contains the commitment to hold eu elections, so...!
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
A situation where the UK could show up at any time and go "we've decided to Brexit, bye" seems completely untenable.
You'd throw a minimum notice period on there but otherwise it's just what they're currently doing anyways. Once they lost the two year Article 50 notice period they were never going to get a long length notice again.
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
A situation where the UK could show up at any time and go "we've decided to Brexit, bye" seems completely untenable.
Pretty sure they know at this point the government is full of shit. If we were going to no deal we would have done it on march 29th. They played it to the last minute then blinked, there isn't really any taking that back.
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
the erg position increasingly seems to be that 1) the more they can stick the long extension "betrayal" on may specifically the better 2) getting rid of her, getting a hard brexit leader + general election gives them a much higher chance of a hard brexit than trying to fuck around with current parliament/party 3) the eu appearing to impose it is also good for them
i would be surprised if a significant number did not vote aye on a labour-introduced no confidence if one happened shortly after 12 april. there have been murmurings from people adjacent to them for a while that a long extension isnt actually bad for them, so...
This is how we end up with it never being the correct time to brexit, and parliament in the year 3027 convening for the ceremonial "voting down of Theresa May's deal".
QI in thirty years time doing a bit about the little known fact that the UK can leave the EU any time it wants, as a consequence of old laws that have never been repealed.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
That's lovely that the ERG guys might be sitting pretty.
No extension and they get the hard Brexit they want. Any pain from the Brexit is May and the EU's fault.
Get an extension and it's just May betraying Brexit and the EU imposing it's will on the UK due to May's weakness.
All that while threatening to be utter gits to the EU's interests if they are granted the long extension.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, ModeratorMod Emeritus
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
the erg position increasingly seems to be that 1) the more they can stick the long extension "betrayal" on may specifically the better 2) getting rid of her, getting a hard brexit leader + general election gives them a much higher chance of a hard brexit than trying to fuck around with current parliament/party 3) the eu appearing to impose it is also good for them
i would be surprised if a significant number did not vote aye on a labour-introduced no confidence if one happened shortly after 12 april. there have been murmurings from people adjacent to them for a while that a long extension isnt actually bad for them, so...
This is how we end up with it never being the correct time to brexit, and parliament in the year 3027 convening for the ceremonial "voting down of Theresa May's deal".
QI in thirty years time doing a bit about the little known fact that the UK can leave the EU any time it wants, as a consequence of old laws that have never been repealed.
MV1012
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
EU sources have stated that May coming back and back again is disruptive because it takes time and attention away from everything else
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
the erg position increasingly seems to be that 1) the more they can stick the long extension "betrayal" on may specifically the better 2) getting rid of her, getting a hard brexit leader + general election gives them a much higher chance of a hard brexit than trying to fuck around with current parliament/party 3) the eu appearing to impose it is also good for them
i would be surprised if a significant number did not vote aye on a labour-introduced no confidence if one happened shortly after 12 april. there have been murmurings from people adjacent to them for a while that a long extension isnt actually bad for them, so...
This is how we end up with it never being the correct time to brexit, and parliament in the year 3027 convening for the ceremonial "voting down of Theresa May's deal".
QI in thirty years time doing a bit about the little known fact that the UK can leave the EU any time it wants, as a consequence of old laws that have never been repealed.
To paraphrase Penny Arcade.
"Did you hear the news? The UK has decided to leave."
"Really? I don't think it will make much difference after a thousand years of alien rule."
Krishnan works for channel 4 and is saying what most of us are thinking.
Seems bugger all had changed.
Once again May's idea of cross table compromise is inviting the other guy into a room and saying "so we'll do it my way yeah?" until the other person leaves the room to stop themselves from killing her. She then presumably continues to call it out the door long after they've gone.
I don't see May not going for the long extension though, she's got to fight to not do it - partly because the last thing she wants is for the funding and campaigning machinery to swing towards UKIP for the EU elections, and partly because she's stubborn beyond reason. But if we go through EU elections and have a 1-2 year extension, with a referendum at the end?
That's another 1-2 years of being PM. Tories can't get rid of her for a year, her resignation was turned down (that option was on the table and MPs chose not to vote for it, so I honestly don't see how this could be taken as anything less than wholehearted support for her premiership - across the aisles no less!) and by the time they can - referendum on any final deal has been kicked into motion and father time has claimed another crop of crusty 'Kippers.
So whoever takes over afterwards is taking on her deal, or going against the will of the people to Remain in the EU. Or you wait, and then do it once all the Brexit stuff is resolved, claiming betrayal or lamenting May's Brexit obsession that prevented anything else from happening as you go into a GE due to the Fixed Term Parliament act.
I'm not even sure why you'd go to see it right now in the cinemas, rather than waiting until the extended edition comes out with the revised ending.
Other than you thought it sounded like it was going to be long enough already.
Posts
Maybe the Lib Dems saying they are anti-Brexit has re-won them a lot of those votes.
I'm guessing that the Greens would still suffer from FPTP in a hypothetical 18-24's only election.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Yeah this wants waving in the face of every disaffected young voter
Like always and everywhere the problem is young people don't vote and are thus very useless whereas dumb old people who are getting brainwashed by Facebook vote like it's a requirement for getting their government checks.
I don't imagine Corbyn seemingly selling their future down the river for a JOBS FIRST BREXIT is going to encourage them to chant his name and vote for him like he's the messiah next time around.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
also i very much feel sorry for the writers of satire right now:
bbc politics guy
If I'm feeling this and I live in hipster central where my MP listens to the people I can't imagine how frustrating it is in other constituencies.
100% i hope the EU do this
There is no reason to play her game or give her what she wants, we'll just be back here having this exact same conversation on the 29th of June. Longer extension gives us more time for Parliament to kneecap her.
There's little point in the EU doing anything further: the WA isn't changing and they don't particularly want to force a no deal brexit
The UK remains pretty much deadlocked.
Various people are joking about the UK remaining permanently in extension-land but actually it seems like there's a non trivial chance of that happening
My MP (Tory) ostensibly supported Remain in the referendum campaign, but since then has only voted for the hardest possible Brexit options, preferably no deal. It's maddening and baffling, but hey, Tory.
All I can really do is vote against him, and I do, but it's a safe seat.
Steam | XBL
They seem to be edging towards the idea that brexit as a process is not actually that disruptive, combined with a general desire not to be seen to do anything that could be interpreted as "forcing the UK out" which would feed the betrayal narrative, or do anything that drops Ireland in the shit
What is disruptive is having to bring the eu27 leaders together every two weeks to have pointless conversations with May
But: we've reached the point where those conversations are no longer really required. The deal is there, the EU 27 have decided what happens when it is implemented. There's nothing to do but wait for the UK to stop flailing around in its own shit.
There's a case to be made for: there is the door, leave when you're ready, but we are not spending any more time on this
Assuming that they actually are backing off on having a hard deadline, it'd probably be because they're worried that the UK would end up going no-deal and they believe that the negatives from that outweigh any possible benefits that might result. Probably why Rees-Mogg is threatening to stink things up for the EU if there is a long extension, increase the downside to the UK staying in the EU so that they don't keep extending the extensions.
Also there are other costs associated with EU and national bureaucracies and businesses having to prepare for multiple outcomes simultaneously
Liveblog per usual.
It's not shocking from what has come out, but this looks like it puts the ball back in May's court.
ya, and this is why (council willing) the flextension plan seems to be the only meaningful offer they will give - "we dont trust u to come to an outcome soon, we dont want this popping up again and again, go away forever until you come back with a concrete plan and do not darken our doorstep again"
The Brexit process really isnt disruptive for the EU27. All the business that's fleeing the UK is just going to one of them, their currencies are staying stable and the longer this goes on the stupider we look and the more the case for anyone else leaving gets torpedoed.
I suppose the complication with this is that if the extension starts getting into timescales where UK elections will have occurred, before there's any reasonable chance of brexit happening:
a) any incentive for Labour to cooperate in delivering brexit goes out the window
b) it starts getting weird again in terms of apparent intrusion into national politics on the part of the EU
A situation where the UK could show up at any time and go "we've decided to Brexit, bye" seems completely untenable.
the erg position increasingly seems to be that 1) the more they can stick the long extension "betrayal" on may specifically the better 2) getting rid of her, getting a hard brexit leader + general election gives them a much higher chance of a hard brexit than trying to fuck around with current parliament/party 3) the eu appearing to impose it is also good for them
i would be surprised if a significant number did not vote aye on a labour-introduced no confidence if one happened shortly after 12 april. there have been murmurings from people adjacent to them for a while that a long extension isnt actually bad for them, so...
the structure they've been considering requires mutual consent - uk and eu - and only contains one major event (uk passes some version of wa or revoke) vs a thousand small extension requests each requiring consent from everybody
mays extension request already contains the commitment to hold eu elections, so...!
You'd throw a minimum notice period on there but otherwise it's just what they're currently doing anyways. Once they lost the two year Article 50 notice period they were never going to get a long length notice again.
Pretty sure they know at this point the government is full of shit. If we were going to no deal we would have done it on march 29th. They played it to the last minute then blinked, there isn't really any taking that back.
This is how we end up with it never being the correct time to brexit, and parliament in the year 3027 convening for the ceremonial "voting down of Theresa May's deal".
QI in thirty years time doing a bit about the little known fact that the UK can leave the EU any time it wants, as a consequence of old laws that have never been repealed.
No extension and they get the hard Brexit they want. Any pain from the Brexit is May and the EU's fault.
Get an extension and it's just May betraying Brexit and the EU imposing it's will on the UK due to May's weakness.
All that while threatening to be utter gits to the EU's interests if they are granted the long extension.
MV1012
To paraphrase Penny Arcade.
"Did you hear the news? The UK has decided to leave."
"Really? I don't think it will make much difference after a thousand years of alien rule."
shot
chaser
to note: the "very strong" for identifying as a conservative or labour party supporter is... 8%. interesting times ahead
what % of population identify as a "remainer" or "leaver" with a "very strong" (4 on a 1-4, the 4 levels listed along the bottom) level of feeling
also labour now coming out and saying government is proposing no meaningful change thus far which is an, uh, ok
Krishnan works for channel 4 and is saying what most of us are thinking.
Seems bugger all had changed.
It pretty clearly says "Nation of Brexit identifiers".
So 40% of Brexit nomenclature originates from the nation of Very Strong?
Not too surprising, I suppose, I believe their main export is jargon.
I'm shocked, I tell you. Shocked.
Steam | XBL
Once again May's idea of cross table compromise is inviting the other guy into a room and saying "so we'll do it my way yeah?" until the other person leaves the room to stop themselves from killing her. She then presumably continues to call it out the door long after they've gone.
That's another 1-2 years of being PM. Tories can't get rid of her for a year, her resignation was turned down (that option was on the table and MPs chose not to vote for it, so I honestly don't see how this could be taken as anything less than wholehearted support for her premiership - across the aisles no less!) and by the time they can - referendum on any final deal has been kicked into motion and father time has claimed another crop of crusty 'Kippers.
So whoever takes over afterwards is taking on her deal, or going against the will of the people to Remain in the EU. Or you wait, and then do it once all the Brexit stuff is resolved, claiming betrayal or lamenting May's Brexit obsession that prevented anything else from happening as you go into a GE due to the Fixed Term Parliament act.
Other than you thought it sounded like it was going to be long enough already.