However the 16-17 year old and EU nationals amendments weren't selected by the speakers, so the point is moot. I kind of get it, it would have only expanded the franchise for this single election and then removed it afterwards, bit of a shame though.
Will Boris pull the bill if the date to the 9th happens though? I hope so, but I doubt it.
They also picked opposition amendment 3, but I can't find out what that is anywhere.
[edit]Ah, it's just fixing a typo the first amendment creates - just fixes the date somewhere else.
There aren't the numbers for a referendum in parliament. To get a referendum, you need a GE. There's also a very real chance there are the numbers in the current parliament to pass Boris' deal.
I think this one is a bit self-fullfilling. The media repeating it so often has made it fact in the minds of many.
Yes, it didn't pass in the indicative votes stage but:
It was only by a relatively narrow margin
It had the most votes in favour of it
Labour 'rebels' were the main reason it failed.
Note the 18 Labour abstensions and 27 against. Any real pressure from Labour should be able to move enough of those for it to pass. The obvious caveat here is that there are 51 tory abstensions (including what appeard to be the cabinet at the time?). It's very likely that they'd fall towards the nutter side of things, but overall I think it's close enough that it might pass if it came down to it.
I also like using this as an excuse to recap the names of MPs, particularly Labour MPs, opposed to a second ref.
So it lost by 27, there are 51 tories who didn't vote, and you think that points towards a victory next time? If parliament had the numbers for a second referendum, they'd have voted for one by now. Sticking with the same parliamentary makeup, when this parliament has shown no sign of backing a second ref, but has shown that there could be the numbers for the deal, seems destined for failure. Remains best bet is to swing the numbers via a GE, rather than camping in parliament until the numbers magically swing behind a referendum. The more labour look scared of an election, the weaker their prospects when it happens.
Not the point I was making. I was not suggesting a second ref as a strategy over a general election. I simply wanted to point out that it was closer than generally stated. It bugs me as failing to pass in Parliament is passed off as having no support at all.
The larger point is that it failed due to Labour rebels. Rebels who suffered precisely fuck all consequences for their actions.
Since Johnson has thus far failed to "deliver Brexit", I fully expect Farage's loons to run too.
It's too much to hope that they'll split the right's vote enough to keep them both out. Tory/Brex is definitely possible.
This is really the wild card. If farage and company go all in they could bleed off enough support to either deprive the conservatives of a majority or at least have such a weak one they are in basically in the same boat they are currently where they can't push anything through.
IMO a result entirely depends where the:
Lab/LD
Con/LD
Con/BXP
marginals are. As far as I can tell, nobody knows. Maybe the party polling does?
Since Johnson has thus far failed to "deliver Brexit", I fully expect Farage's loons to run too.
It's too much to hope that they'll split the right's vote enough to keep them both out. Tory/Brex is definitely possible.
This is really the wild card. If farage and company go all in they could bleed off enough support to either deprive the conservatives of a majority or at least have such a weak one they are in basically in the same boat they are currently where they can't push anything through.
IMO a result entirely depends where the:
Lab/LD
Con/LD
Con/BXP
marginals are. As far as I can tell, nobody knows. Maybe the party polling does?
I'd add Lab/BXP to that list as well.
10 of the 21 purged Tories are back in the Party, apparently the ones that voted for the 3-day timetable for the Withdrawal act.
[edit]Some but not all of them did so.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
edited October 2019
well, 12th it is then...?
amendment 2 to change date to 9th fails by 20
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
edited October 2019
assumption here is that altho they were originally going to go along with 9th they realised given labour have rolled out the LETS ELECTION announcements they cant be seen to vote against a ge on the basis of something as piddling as 3 days, and so voted en masse against the corbyn amendment because fuck you 12th is better for us
Key things of interest will be;
Where will Boris stand, as he's predicted to lose his current seat?
Will he be championing his deal - which is now in the wild and will be debated for 5 weeks?
Will Farage's lot back that, or push for No Deal and Farage as an MP?
Will there be a Remain Alliance?
Is the Deal bad enough for NI that they might think about sending someone other than the DUP, or is this vs No Deal the perfect set of options to continue with just Sinn Fein vs DUP?
They should have done this long ago by my reckoning. My prediction is, that like last time, when faced with actual campaigning Tories the people will rebel. Add in Farage and it is curtains for Boris. Obviously all to play for but that's my wild speculation.
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
bet boris will shove the deal into parliament in next few days in a deliberately abortive attempt purely so he can rave about how he tried to get us to leave before the general election as hard as possible you guys, honest
(Small) Conservative majority
SNP win all Scotland seats
Brexit Party don't win a seat
Turnout is shockingly low
and for the bants... Boris Johnson loses his seat.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
I feel like turnout issues could make this one very weird
I don't know how motivated people will actually be to vote for the incumbent government, relative to ardent remainers
theres about 27 different axes of turnout that ruin everything, and the numbers are right on the edge where absurdly small changes in individual constituencies totally ruin the outcome. with 37% of the vote share you can get a +-75 seat result for tories eg
and even in individual factors tiny weighting choices make everything explode. eg if you calculate a remain voting factor with even quite a small influence on actual behaviour (lab-> lib or con-> lib or lab->bxp etc depending) changing its value between even quite small numbers causes seats to flop everywhere. then you can add in horrible effects of tactical voting that may well be organised on a large scale... and generic enormous turnout uncertainty
of course i have considered all of this and am predicting an outcome that i will reveal by posting in this thread after the result is announced thank u
broadly assumptions are rn that in regional cases they go for hard remain nationalist parties where appropriate eg pc, snp, etc, for ex-conservatives they 99% collapse lib dem, for labour its a little more complicated as
1) brexit-voting labour voters are more likely to register extremely low scores for political engagement and frequently don't vote that much at all, so vote switching may be less important than not turning out at all
2) the most likely break most make is to BXP rather than CON but...
3) if they are remain voters you get weird split behaviour where certain categories of younger poorer lab voters have almost zero tendency to split lib dem, even for incredibly high scores on "remain" identity, while educated and older lab voters (yer classic NEW LABOUR TRAITOR types) are more likely to defect, tho perhaps less than expected
of course this ignores tactical voting which, again, the latter category are more likely to go in for...
Professor of Polls the Guardian reported was on LBC earlier today, and he reckons 100 or so MPs not from one of the major two parties.
Which is pretty much what we have now, Lib Dems lose a few of the rebel Tories but pick up some other Remain constituencies and the SNP clean up in Scotland. Wales and NI remain much the same.
All this nonsense and getting stuck in exactly the same place seems the most 'Brexit'y of outcomes.
Be sort of hilarious though, I'd laugh if we ended up with a shit minority Tory government headed up by Johnson, opposed by Corbyn, with SNP and Lib Dems hanging around, and still no majority for anything
Turn-out is traditionally higher when the parties are very different, which they sort of are but sort of aren't on Brexit if you're a Remainer for whom Leaving of any stripe goes in the same bag of shit, which is quite a few people.
Apparently weather doesn't make a lot of difference? People thinking it'll be close does though.
I dunno. All my lefty mates are dead excited, they're saying I'm being a right miserable sod. I hope they're right, I really fucking do.
Since the winds seem to be shifting towards North Ireland getting partially cut off from the rest of the UK if Brexit happens, I wonder how that's going to affect voting for unionists.
Be sort of hilarious though, I'd laugh if we ended up with a shit minority Tory government headed up by Johnson, opposed by Corbyn, with SNP and Lib Dems hanging around, and still no majority for anything
Except currently the Torys don't actually have a majority right? If you end up with basically the same them they again won't be able to form a government without the DUP. Or maybe even with them. Which means instead of Johnson remaining in power by default until he gets VONCed, someone has to actually put together a majority coalition right?
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
Be sort of hilarious though, I'd laugh if we ended up with a shit minority Tory government headed up by Johnson, opposed by Corbyn, with SNP and Lib Dems hanging around, and still no majority for anything
Except currently the Torys don't actually have a majority right? If you end up with basically the same them they again won't be able to form a government without the DUP. Or maybe even with them. Which means instead of Johnson remaining in power by default until he gets VONCed, someone has to actually put together a majority coalition right?
they dont have to - they will be asked to
if nobody can form a government (not even a minority government) then...
ELECTION 2: DO IT BETTER THIS TIME
this has afaik never happened immediately due to total failure to form a government, as usually a minority government flops half-formed into being and then is promptly murdered within a few months. most obvious examples of this would be the 1974 february election which was followed by a second election in october, or the above-mentioned '23 general that had its resultant labour minority government put down in the '24 general of the following year, about 10 months later
(Small) Conservative majority SNP win all Scotland seats
Brexit Party don't win a seat
Turnout is shockingly low
and for the bants... Boris Johnson loses his seat.
No.
Lib Dem vote is up, SNP vote is static.
You have seats the Lib Dems currently have, they aren't going to lose them.
You have Fife NE. The majority is 5. Five actual people. They have names. The Lib Dems will gain that.
Not even the most pessimistic Con projection has them losing all their seats in Scotland.
There's no point in playing in prediction game if you make rationale, probable decisions.
Geez.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
edited October 2019
It always boggles my mind that there are countries where voter turnout is even a relevant metric. Voting should be compulsory everywhere - there is no reason to allow people to make a choice like not voting when it actively harms them and everyone around them to have it optional.
It always boggles my mind that there are countries where voter turnout is even a relevant metric. Voting should be compulsory everywhere - there is no reason to allow people to make a choice like not voting when it actively harms them and everyone around them to have it optional.
On the other hand forcing people who have no interest in the process to make decisions on matters they have chosen to not understand doesn't seem like its great either. If you want to vote you can, it's not hard, being arsed to spend five minutes signing up, 20 mins going to a local polling site and maybe the odd browse through the news a few times a week is such a low barrier to entry I think excluding those who can't meet it is a good thing.
I'm shuddering to imagine the lowest common denominator campaigns that would be aimed at people who want to be told to vote for because they can't be bothered to think for themselves.
It always boggles my mind that there are countries where voter turnout is even a relevant metric. Voting should be compulsory everywhere - there is no reason to allow people to make a choice like not voting when it actively harms them and everyone around them to have it optional.
On the other hand forcing people who have no interest in the process to make decisions on matters they have chosen to not understand doesn't seem like its great either. If you want to vote you can, it's not hard, being arsed to spend five minutes signing up, 20 mins going to a local polling site and maybe the odd browse through the news a few times a week is such a low barrier to entry I think excluding those who can't meet it is a good thing.
I'm shuddering to imagine the lowest common denominator campaigns that would be aimed at people who want to be told to vote for because they can't be bothered to think for themselves.
I know this is the Britain/UK/Brexit thread, but as an American, um, what?
Posts
Will Boris pull the bill if the date to the 9th happens though? I hope so, but I doubt it.
They also picked opposition amendment 3, but I can't find out what that is anywhere.
[edit]Ah, it's just fixing a typo the first amendment creates - just fixes the date somewhere else.
Not the point I was making. I was not suggesting a second ref as a strategy over a general election. I simply wanted to point out that it was closer than generally stated. It bugs me as failing to pass in Parliament is passed off as having no support at all.
The larger point is that it failed due to Labour rebels. Rebels who suffered precisely fuck all consequences for their actions.
Nah you're alright
Yeah I don't think this cat is going back in the bag.
IMO a result entirely depends where the:
Lab/LD
Con/LD
Con/BXP
marginals are. As far as I can tell, nobody knows. Maybe the party polling does?
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I'd add Lab/BXP to that list as well.
10 of the 21 purged Tories are back in the Party, apparently the ones that voted for the 3-day timetable for the Withdrawal act.
[edit]Some but not all of them did so.
amendment 2 to change date to 9th fails by 20
Key things of interest will be;
Where will Boris stand, as he's predicted to lose his current seat?
Will he be championing his deal - which is now in the wild and will be debated for 5 weeks?
Will Farage's lot back that, or push for No Deal and Farage as an MP?
Will there be a Remain Alliance?
Is the Deal bad enough for NI that they might think about sending someone other than the DUP, or is this vs No Deal the perfect set of options to continue with just Sinn Fein vs DUP?
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
(Small) Conservative majority
SNP win all Scotland seats
Brexit Party don't win a seat
Turnout is shockingly low
and for the bants... Boris Johnson loses his seat.
we can but dream of an outcome like this with a 38% tory vote...
I don't know how motivated people will actually be to vote for the incumbent government, relative to ardent remainers
theres about 27 different axes of turnout that ruin everything, and the numbers are right on the edge where absurdly small changes in individual constituencies totally ruin the outcome. with 37% of the vote share you can get a +-75 seat result for tories eg
and even in individual factors tiny weighting choices make everything explode. eg if you calculate a remain voting factor with even quite a small influence on actual behaviour (lab-> lib or con-> lib or lab->bxp etc depending) changing its value between even quite small numbers causes seats to flop everywhere. then you can add in horrible effects of tactical voting that may well be organised on a large scale... and generic enormous turnout uncertainty
of course i have considered all of this and am predicting an outcome that i will reveal by posting in this thread after the result is announced thank u
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Edit:
23/10 becoming an MP at next election
1/4 not becoming an MP at next election
broadly assumptions are rn that in regional cases they go for hard remain nationalist parties where appropriate eg pc, snp, etc, for ex-conservatives they 99% collapse lib dem, for labour its a little more complicated as
1) brexit-voting labour voters are more likely to register extremely low scores for political engagement and frequently don't vote that much at all, so vote switching may be less important than not turning out at all
2) the most likely break most make is to BXP rather than CON but...
3) if they are remain voters you get weird split behaviour where certain categories of younger poorer lab voters have almost zero tendency to split lib dem, even for incredibly high scores on "remain" identity, while educated and older lab voters (yer classic NEW LABOUR TRAITOR types) are more likely to defect, tho perhaps less than expected
of course this ignores tactical voting which, again, the latter category are more likely to go in for...
Which is pretty much what we have now, Lib Dems lose a few of the rebel Tories but pick up some other Remain constituencies and the SNP clean up in Scotland. Wales and NI remain much the same.
All this nonsense and getting stuck in exactly the same place seems the most 'Brexit'y of outcomes.
Yup weather likely could be really bad dark early and everything being such a mess how many are just going to go piss on it and not bother.
Turn-out is traditionally higher when the parties are very different, which they sort of are but sort of aren't on Brexit if you're a Remainer for whom Leaving of any stripe goes in the same bag of shit, which is quite a few people.
Apparently weather doesn't make a lot of difference? People thinking it'll be close does though.
I dunno. All my lefty mates are dead excited, they're saying I'm being a right miserable sod. I hope they're right, I really fucking do.
Except currently the Torys don't actually have a majority right? If you end up with basically the same them they again won't be able to form a government without the DUP. Or maybe even with them. Which means instead of Johnson remaining in power by default until he gets VONCed, someone has to actually put together a majority coalition right?
UK bad weather shuts schools, cuts power and disrupts travel
We aren't guaranteed similar conditions but the likelihood of disrupting weather akin to this affecting parts of the country can't be discounted.
https://tacticalvote.co.uk/
Though still waiting for a lot of data to be entered so most areas haven't got a recommended candidate as of yet.
In other news I've seen that Plaid, Greens and Lib Dems are making remain pacts in some seats.
they dont have to - they will be asked to
if nobody can form a government (not even a minority government) then...
ELECTION 2: DO IT BETTER THIS TIME
this has afaik never happened immediately due to total failure to form a government, as usually a minority government flops half-formed into being and then is promptly murdered within a few months. most obvious examples of this would be the 1974 february election which was followed by a second election in october, or the above-mentioned '23 general that had its resultant labour minority government put down in the '24 general of the following year, about 10 months later
No.
Lib Dem vote is up, SNP vote is static.
You have seats the Lib Dems currently have, they aren't going to lose them.
You have Fife NE. The majority is 5. Five actual people. They have names. The Lib Dems will gain that.
Not even the most pessimistic Con projection has them losing all their seats in Scotland.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
Geez.
On the other hand forcing people who have no interest in the process to make decisions on matters they have chosen to not understand doesn't seem like its great either. If you want to vote you can, it's not hard, being arsed to spend five minutes signing up, 20 mins going to a local polling site and maybe the odd browse through the news a few times a week is such a low barrier to entry I think excluding those who can't meet it is a good thing.
I'm shuddering to imagine the lowest common denominator campaigns that would be aimed at people who want to be told to vote for because they can't be bothered to think for themselves.
I know this is the Britain/UK/Brexit thread, but as an American, um, what?