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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Winning The Argument Looks A Lot Like Losing

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    SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    Labours Brexit position is second referendum with their deal Vs remain which is relatively sane idea.

    My MP is Anna Soubry who is firmly Remain but I doubt she'll win in this election. Labour was only behind by a few hundred votes so I'll probably vote for them to ensure Brexit party or the new Tory candidate doesn't win.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    For people worried about Corbyn on Brexit, here's the official Labour policy, which clearly outlines a promise to hold another referendum (but not saying which side Labour would be on): here. I don't trust Corbyn any further than I can throw him on whether he's for or against Brexit, but I don't believe he'll scupper this policy if Labour got in.

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    Werewolf2000adWerewolf2000ad Suckers, I know exactly what went wrong. Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    Happy Brexit Day everybody. Glad to be finally be out, no Ifs, no Buts, got my sovereignty back and going down to the Post Office to get my blue passport right this morning. Britannia rules the waves ect. ect.

    Mark Francois' prediction that "This country will explode" if we didn't leave today has provoked very British amusement on twitter:





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    H3KnucklesH3Knuckles But we decide which is right and which is an illusion.Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    Bethryn wrote: »
    Happy Brexit Day everybody. Glad to be finally be out, no Ifs, no Buts, got my sovereignty back and going down to the Post Office to get my blue passport right this morning. Britannia rules the waves ect. ect.

    Mark Francois' prediction that "This country will explode" if we didn't leave today has provoked very British amusement on twitter:


    Oh wow, I just about busted a gut at the one with the picture of the Morris Dancers. Takes me back to all the times they made fun of it on QI.

    H3Knuckles on
    If you're curious about my icon; it's an update of the early Lego Castle theme's "Black Falcons" faction.
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    101101 Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    Bogart wrote: »
    For people worried about Corbyn on Brexit, here's the official Labour policy, which clearly outlines a promise to hold another referendum (but not saying which side Labour would be on): here. I don't trust Corbyn any further than I can throw him on whether he's for or against Brexit, but I don't believe he'll scupper this policy if Labour got in.

    I've no doubt they will hold a referendum, my concern is about what labour will campaign for in it.

    I find it really hard to believe they'll spend time negotiating a deal only to turn around and say actually this is shit, please vote remain.

    Particularly after Corbyn's tepid support for remain last time round

    101 on
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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    101 wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    For people worried about Corbyn on Brexit, here's the official Labour policy, which clearly outlines a promise to hold another referendum (but not saying which side Labour would be on): here. I don't trust Corbyn any further than I can throw him on whether he's for or against Brexit, but I don't believe he'll scupper this policy if Labour got in.

    I've no doubt they will hold a referendum, my concern is about what labour will campaign for in it.

    I find it really hard to believe they'll spend time negotiating a deal only to turn around and say actually this is shit, please vote remain.

    Particularly after Corbyn's tepid support for remain last time round

    Look, we can burn that bridge when we get to it.
    I'll worry about Labour's position in a hypothetical referendum if they're in a position to deliver it.
    I already know that the Conservative position on a referendum is "No chance", so taking "Some chance" instead was an easy pick.
    (Not, to be fair, like it matters - Conservative safe-ish seat with a Lib Dem challenger, so I can think what I like about Labour's policies)

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    I'm not saying Labour's policy is what I want, I'm just saying what it is. Whether you trust them is another matter.

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    101101 Registered User regular
    Voting labour as a means to an end in getting a referendum is tempting.

    But it would mean voting for a party whose leadership is pro-brexit.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    I think voting for whomever has the best chance of keeping a Tory out, with a few exceptions like Chris Williamson, is a reasonable position. My local race is a very safe Labour seat, and she's a fine, sensible MP, so my decision is either her or a vote for a Lib Dem candidate who hasn't a hope of getting in.

    Finding out who your local candidates are is important. Don't just read their party affiliation. I know people vote for leaders above all other things but your local candidate might be a Stella Creasey or someone else genuinely great and worth supporting regardless of your views on their party leader.

    And then again I am in two minds about voting for a party whose machinery has been taken over by fucking tankies and people who explain the anti-semitism issue by saying "Rothschild money" while tapping their nose.

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    Mojo_JojoMojo_Jojo We are only now beginning to understand the full power and ramifications of sexual intercourse Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I think voting for whomever has the best chance of keeping a Tory out, with a few exceptions like Chris Williamson, is a reasonable position. My local race is a very safe Labour seat, and she's a fine, sensible MP, so my decision is either her or a vote for a Lib Dem candidate who hasn't a hope of getting in.

    Finding out who your local candidates are is important. Don't just read their party affiliation. I know people vote for leaders above all other things but your local candidate might be a Stella Creasey or someone else genuinely great and worth supporting regardless of your views on their party leader.

    And then again I am in two minds about voting for a party whose machinery has been taken over by fucking tankies and people who explain the anti-semitism issue by saying "Rothschild money" while tapping their nose.

    Yeah, I'll probably vote labour as the local MP is fantastic but it still hurts.

    Homogeneous distribution of your varieties of amuse-gueule
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    EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Bethryn wrote: »
    Happy Brexit Day everybody. Glad to be finally be out, no Ifs, no Buts, got my sovereignty back and going down to the Post Office to get my blue passport right this morning. Britannia rules the waves ect. ect.

    More like "Britannia waives the rules".

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    AlphaRomeroAlphaRomero Registered User regular
    It really isn't a choice, you are voting for the broadest terms of what you want. If you want Brexit, vote Tory, if you don't want Brexit you have to take a chance and vote Labour because no other party has any chance of getting to power. A Labour LD coalition is agreeable as the LDs can reign them in on Brexit, but you will need to be tactical. In my constituency it's not even a choice, we have two MPs, Labour and Labour and they had at least an 8000 majority last time (Debbie fucking Abrahms, ugh), so my vote is worthless.

    I trust Labour will probably end austerity and maybe actually tackle privatisation and tax-dodging businesses. I believe they will hold a referendum, even if they should just retract. So gotta go with hope. I believe they'll also be corrupt fuckpuppets and even in power Corbyn will be feckless and ineffective.

    But they are sadly the best hope.

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    Mojo_JojoMojo_Jojo We are only now beginning to understand the full power and ramifications of sexual intercourse Registered User regular
    It really isn't a choice, you are voting for the broadest terms of what you want. If you want Brexit, vote Tory, if you don't want Brexit you have to take a chance and vote Labour because no other party has any chance of getting to power. A Labour LD coalition is agreeable as the LDs can reign them in on Brexit, but you will need to be tactical. In my constituency it's not even a choice, we have two MPs, Labour and Labour and they had at least an 8000 majority last time (Debbie fucking Abrahms, ugh), so my vote is worthless.

    I trust Labour will probably end austerity and maybe actually tackle privatisation and tax-dodging businesses. I believe they will hold a referendum, even if they should just retract. So gotta go with hope. I believe they'll also be corrupt fuckpuppets and even in power Corbyn will be feckless and ineffective.

    But they are sadly the best hope.
    This isn't true at all.

    You need to vote for whoever prevents a tory. And if you're in a lab/lib marginal then go lib as they are actively anti brexit

    Homogeneous distribution of your varieties of amuse-gueule
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    101101 Registered User regular
    Having said all of that, turns out labour took my seat with 62% of the vote so fuck it, conscience voting it is

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    Mojo I think I was reading about a poll for your neck of the woods that saw the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. May have been an outlier, but a city full of academics and students feels like the kind of place they could steal.

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    SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    Corbyn is promising a new deal and a referendum in six months which seem overly ambitious.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Corbyn is promising a new deal and a referendum in six months which seem overly ambitious.

    They bypass most of the egregious difficulties the Tories ran into by saying yes to "a" customs union. But yes, it still feels like an optimistic promise.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    In other, funnier news, UKIP have lost another leader, and can no longer claim to be led by *checks notes* a Dick Braine.

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    Mojo_JojoMojo_Jojo We are only now beginning to understand the full power and ramifications of sexual intercourse Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    Mojo I think I was reading about a poll for your neck of the woods that saw the Lib Dems ahead of Labour. May have been an outlier, but a city full of academics and students feels like the kind of place they could steal.

    Yeah we swing back and forth between lib dems and labour. The current labour MP is great the previous lid dem MP was basically a Tory. They're fielding a new candidate though so it will probably give them some momentum

    Homogeneous distribution of your varieties of amuse-gueule
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    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Corbyn is promising a new deal and a referendum in six months which seem overly ambitious.

    Boris managed to hack out his modification to May's deal in a remarkably short period of time. At this point I think the EU negotiating team has such a handle on things that they've got a bunch of different treaty variants on tap that they can hand over for the UK team to read and tweak around the edges. You want something like Norway? They've got a document for that. Same as a customs union or probably near any other setup that keeps the GFA intact and doesn't result in a better deal for the UK than staying in the EU.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    If Labour did do a deal or remain referendum, what would the Tories campaign for?

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    AlphaRomeroAlphaRomero Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    If Labour did do a deal or remain referendum, what would the Tories campaign for?

    Lower taxes on businesses.

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    Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    I fucking hate tactical voting and the FPTP system that requires it. Absolutely fucking loath it.

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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    they would campaign for deal because it would place us outside the eu in a way that could 1) be fodder for fractious eu-related election campaigns in the future - "we will change our eu arrangements to set us truly free!!!" And 2) it happening would be bad for the Labour Party simply because they would have executed a policy that most of their voters are increasingly radicalised against - and there is an obvious party for them to jump ship to

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    I live in what the local paper describes as "one of the safest [Conservative] seats in the country" - Shailesh Vara had a majority of over 18,000 here in 2017, so my vote is little more than symbolic. Labour are solidly a distant second, although UKIP pipped them down into third in 2015 when they were still vaguely "relevant" (for a given definition of "relevant"), and everyone else is a long, long way behind. That's what I'm up against.

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    Jam WarriorJam Warrior Registered User regular
    Well yes, my constituency is military/rural and has been not Tory twice in its history. 1923 and 1906. It's all shouting into the wind down here.

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    My constituency has technically only existed since 1997 in its current form. It's largely rural and in a very Brexit-y part of the country so, you know.

    :bro:

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    I actually looked, and it turns out Labour were second in my constituency in 2017, by the razor thin margin of...10,000 votes.
    Still. changes tactical vote accordingly

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    LiiyaLiiya Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    It would be bad, yes. The Lib Dems are centrist liberals. They have some policies I'm absolutely behind (Law and Order stuff, LGBTQ Rights, Brexit, notably) but they were well in on the austerity train and always have be. The reason why so many Tories have recently defected to them is because a lot of their views, especially economic ones, overlap with Tory views. Bedroom Tax? Pushing up Tuition Fees to 9k per annum? Public Sector Pay cap? Jo Swinson chucked her support behind them all, have no fear, and she's leading that Party!

    I don't want the NHS privatised. I don't want Schools privatised. I want public transport renationalised. I want a strong welfare state. That ain't Lib Dems. They've done a very good job in tying themselves largely to being anti Brexit because that's very palatable to a lot of voters on the left.

    They also have rehabilitated their image in the Coalition as largly idealistic and misled rather than yes, Vince Cable was well up for Osborne's economic policies, hearts desire. I am not politically aligned with them at all and I do not want them or the Tories in power. If they replaced Labour as one of the two main parties your options are centrist with neoliberal economics or right wing with neoliberal to verging on libertarian politics. To hell with them both.

    This is very informative.

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    Werewolf2000adWerewolf2000ad Suckers, I know exactly what went wrong. Registered User regular
    Well, Labour have made a cracking start to election season.



    If you missed the first one:

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    The Lib Dems were part of a coalition and traded some of their policies getting put into law for supporting Tory policies. You can absolutely argue they shouldn't have done but they were the junior partner in a coalition and had far less power.

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    I thought Corbyn's speech this morning was good, with a strong message that can resonate if he can get it spread out there

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    edited October 2019
    I don't know what to do. Here it's a tossup between labour or the SNP and I don't really want to vote for either. I guess SNP because fuck Corbyn and fuck the Tories even more.

    Casual on
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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    The Lib Dems were part of a coalition and traded some of their policies getting put into law for supporting Tory policies. You can absolutely argue they shouldn't have done but they were the junior partner in a coalition and had far less power.

    Yeah but whatever their reasons for supporting horrible disastrous and unfair policies, they still voted for them.

    Like saying "well politics is politics" is fair and saying "yeah and I hate their politics" is also fair. Either they were stupidly misled, or actively involved (and I think they were half and half but again, lot of very chirpy support for austerity from Lib Dem MPs like Cable) but the consequence was still that the country suffered immensely and the most vulnerable parts got it hardest.

    Sorry, I just don't accept "but we had to." No they didn't. They chose to. The reason why food banks use has shot up and zero hour contract abuse has shot up and community centres have closed left right and centre, and councils have no funding, and all of the horrible shit that happened since Cameron became PM, was at least in part because the LDs played midwives to it.

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    DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Solar wrote: »

    Yeah but whatever their reasons for supporting horrible disastrous and unfair policies, they still voted for them. .

    Correct.

    However what you're missing is that for as far as trying to work out what they'll do next, it's important to consider the reasoning behind why they supported those policies in the first place, because if the reasoning doesn't apply - if for example, next time they're in a coalition with Labour, and not the Tories, the decisions they take may well be very different.

    You cannot consider voting for policies as the junior member of a coalition with being functionally equivalent to pushing those policies themselves.

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    edited October 2019
    Solar wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    The Lib Dems were part of a coalition and traded some of their policies getting put into law for supporting Tory policies. You can absolutely argue they shouldn't have done but they were the junior partner in a coalition and had far less power.

    Yeah but whatever their reasons for supporting horrible disastrous and unfair policies, they still voted for them.

    Like saying "well politics is politics" is fair and saying "yeah and I hate their politics" is also fair. Either they were stupidly misled, or actively involved (and I think they were half and half but again, lot of very chirpy support for austerity from Lib Dem MPs like Cable) but the consequence was still that the country suffered immensely and the most vulnerable parts got it hardest.

    Sorry, I just don't accept "but we had to." No they didn't. They chose to. The reason why food banks use has shot up and zero hour contract abuse has shot up and community centres have closed left right and centre, and councils have no funding, and all of the horrible shit that happened since Cameron became PM, was at least in part because the LDs played midwives to it.

    I appreciate you feel strongly about this, but IMO it doesn't matter.
    Have the LD's done some stuff I'm not a fan of? Absolutely. Likewise Labour.
    Have they both got an image problem? Absolutely.
    Does it matter which one you vote for outside a marginal? Probably not.
    Does it matter which one you vote for inside a marginal? Whichever one will beat the Tory incumbent

    To be fair I haven't even thought about Lab/Lib marginals.

    I suspect the answer there is, it doesn't really matter; the best/worst case is a Coalition/C&S Labour/Lib deal, so I don't care which of them wins on a constituency basis, as they'd then probably both mostly vote a Labour government line (just as the LD's did in coalition).


    CroakerBC on
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    The Lib Dems were part of a coalition and traded some of their policies getting put into law for supporting Tory policies. You can absolutely argue they shouldn't have done but they were the junior partner in a coalition and had far less power.

    Yeah but whatever their reasons for supporting horrible disastrous and unfair policies, they still voted for them.

    Like saying "well politics is politics" is fair and saying "yeah and I hate their politics" is also fair. Either they were stupidly misled, or actively involved (and I think they were half and half but again, lot of very chirpy support for austerity from Lib Dem MPs like Cable) but the consequence was still that the country suffered immensely and the most vulnerable parts got it hardest.

    Sorry, I just don't accept "but we had to." No they didn't. They chose to. The reason why food banks use has shot up and zero hour contract abuse has shot up and community centres have closed left right and centre, and councils have no funding, and all of the horrible shit that happened since Cameron became PM, was at least in part because the LDs played midwives to it.

    And all of it pales in comparison to Labour midwifing this Tory Brexit at every stage. It makes no sense you're outraged at the Lib Dems for being misguided partners in the coalition (which by the standards of the last Tory governments now seems positively Utopian) but you forgive Labour for supporting the Tories in their most destructive policy of the century of their own free will.

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Sure I can. What's the difference in practical consequence of those votes? There isn't one. Lib Dems aren't Tories but they're far too close for my liking on a lot of topics.

    And I don't buy that they were essentially forced to do these things, distastefully, holding their nose. I think that they were all too happy to throw in for some of them. The Tory MPs that voted alongside them who have now defected to the party have slotted right in without any trouble I note.

    I'm sure that Jo Swinson can justify to herself why she voted for people to have their housing benefit cut because they had a spare box bedroom but I definitely am not letting her off the fucking hook for it. And I'll happily watch any Lib Dem be kicked out of their constituency by a Labour or Green Party MP. Would I prefer a Lib Dem over a Tory for Brexit purposes? Sure, absolutely. Anything is better than an actual Tory. But only in comparison with them

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    The Lib Dems were part of a coalition and traded some of their policies getting put into law for supporting Tory policies. You can absolutely argue they shouldn't have done but they were the junior partner in a coalition and had far less power.

    Yeah but whatever their reasons for supporting horrible disastrous and unfair policies, they still voted for them.

    Like saying "well politics is politics" is fair and saying "yeah and I hate their politics" is also fair. Either they were stupidly misled, or actively involved (and I think they were half and half but again, lot of very chirpy support for austerity from Lib Dem MPs like Cable) but the consequence was still that the country suffered immensely and the most vulnerable parts got it hardest.

    Sorry, I just don't accept "but we had to." No they didn't. They chose to. The reason why food banks use has shot up and zero hour contract abuse has shot up and community centres have closed left right and centre, and councils have no funding, and all of the horrible shit that happened since Cameron became PM, was at least in part because the LDs played midwives to it.

    And all of it pales in comparison to Labour midwifing this Tory Brexit at every stage. It makes no sense you're outraged at the Lib Dems for being misguided partners in the coalition (which by the standards of the last Tory governments now seems positively Utopian) but you forgive Labour for supporting the Tories in their most destructive policy of the century of their own free will.

    Who said I'd forgiven them of that? If the Tory Brexit bill had passed due to Labour rebels I'd have refused to vote Labour too, and I'd go Green. But as it happened, it didn't, and Labour Policy is 2nd ref.

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    DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Sure I can. What's the difference in practical consequence of those votes? There isn't one.

    The difference is in what it says about the likelihood of making the same decision again.

    An individual or party voting for their larger coalition partner's proposed policy, or advocating that policy themselves may have the same functional result vis a vis that specific policy, but they have very different implications for that individual or party's likely voting behaviour going into the future.

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