This disease must really drive pathologists nuts. It just seems to operate in a lot of weird, unexpected ways.
All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
I don't think the virus is quite as 'interesting' as we read in the press, since what we see is every pre print, every half baked study and every novel take, whereas we rarely see "virus continues to behave as expected in models" even though that is what happens almost all the time.
It's interesting because all viruses are interesting, and because it's devastating and novel. But, if we were to approach a flu season with the same breathless, no filter approach to studies and news we'd find you could report on all the same sort of things.
The interesting thing to me has overwhelmingly been people's responses and how short our memories are to the fear we felt. Cases have gone down almost every time because fear drove people to comply with rules, and risen when that fear ran out. It's amazing to me how quickly the fear abates. How bad our societal memory is. I guess it explains why noone talked about the Spanish flu at all while I was in school. We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
This disease must really drive pathologists nuts. It just seems to operate in a lot of weird, unexpected ways.
All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
The history of humanity is of being periodically wiped out by disease, so I guess we've evolved mental defenses so that we can pick ourselves up and move on after the plague rolled into town and left half the town dead. (and Covid-19 was nowhere near as bad as the plague)
It seems confirmed (not yet peer reviewed) that the Thrombosis+platelet count problem is a very rare case of an extreme reaction of the immune system. This kind of autoimmune response where the body attacks its platelets was already known, but now is linked to all the reports of the last few weeks.
The good news is that it is very rare and detecteable and treatable if found in time, the downside is that the symptoms start very generic (increasing headaches after vaccination). People that have increasing complaints a week out of vaccination may need to check their symptoms.
The likelihood is still estimated in the 1:1m range (25 known cases in the EU on ~25m vaccine doses administered, 9 fatalities, odds should improve now that a treatment is prescribed)
This disease must really drive pathologists nuts. It just seems to operate in a lot of weird, unexpected ways.
All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
The history of humanity is of being periodically wiped out by disease, so I guess we've evolved mental defenses so that we can pick ourselves up and move on after the plague rolled into town and left half the town dead. (and Covid-19 was nowhere near as bad as the plague)
I dunno if it's that, or if people are just lazy and resistant to changing their habits any more, or longer, than they're absolutely required to. They want to get back to their groove/rut ASAP and stop thinking about anything outside of it.
This disease must really drive pathologists nuts. It just seems to operate in a lot of weird, unexpected ways.
All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
The history of humanity is of being periodically wiped out by disease, so I guess we've evolved mental defenses so that we can pick ourselves up and move on after the plague rolled into town and left half the town dead. (and Covid-19 was nowhere near as bad as the plague)
I dunno if it's that, or if people are just lazy and resistant to changing their habits any more, or longer, than they're absolutely required to. They want to get back to their groove/rut ASAP and stop thinking about anything outside of it.
I disagree on this though. We seem to be eminently capable of remembering war, and its associated devastation. I've spent weeks of my life learning about the horrors of the blitz, or even the atrocities of nazi concentration camps. I've learned about people throughout history who have starved other people, poisoned them, bombed them and enslaved them. Perhaps without sufficient context in many cases, but the concept was certainly there in history class. Hundred years war? Sure, lets have a good long chat about it and why it happened. WW1? WW2? Vietnam? All here, all in horrifying detail. Perhaps again with more attention paid than should be to certain 'victorious' moments and neglecting the tragic elements, but, we saw images of mass graves. Of the dead. We wrote stories about what it might have been like to have been conscripted. What might it have been like to be wounded. What people might have been afraid of back then. The horrors, mud and despair of the trenches. The idiocy of leadership.
But, the Childrens Plague (the first of DOZENS of recurrances of the black plague across centuries which killed millions each time, overwhelmingly children)? Or, the Spanish Flu of 1918? Barely a blip in our history course. I spoke to my dad, and HIS parents never talked about it. Same for my Mum. They did all the same stuff as we are doing today. Modern estimates are that around or greater than 100 million people died. About 1/18 of the people in the entire world. It's probably the most important thing which happened in the entire 20th century and history courses lump it in with 'the closing days of WW1"
"Yes children, and so, the war was coming to a close. And then, there was a nasty flu season. BUT! Lets not dwell on that, who wants to learn about the League of Nations!"
It's not about changing habits. The 1918 flu ended after a few years, and we literally had no idea why. We wouldn't know which habits to keep up. We just 'didn't talk about it' for 90 years until H1N1. Do we need some kind of triumphant event to be able to remember something horrific?
edit - Perhaps its a culture wide derivative of the way gamblers only remember when they won. Effectively, vs every 'active and emerging' plague in history other than a few notable outliers (Antrax, Smallpox, Polio) we lost. We remember those victories against disease. But are we just incapable of culturally recalling terrifying defeats?
This disease must really drive pathologists nuts. It just seems to operate in a lot of weird, unexpected ways.
All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
The history of humanity is of being periodically wiped out by disease, so I guess we've evolved mental defenses so that we can pick ourselves up and move on after the plague rolled into town and left half the town dead. (and Covid-19 was nowhere near as bad as the plague)
I dunno if it's that, or if people are just lazy and resistant to changing their habits any more, or longer, than they're absolutely required to. They want to get back to their groove/rut ASAP and stop thinking about anything outside of it.
I disagree on this though. We seem to be eminently capable of remembering war, and its associated devastation. I've spent weeks of my life learning about the horrors of the blitz, or even the atrocities of nazi concentration camps. I've learned about people throughout history who have starved other people, poisoned them, bombed them and enslaved them. Perhaps without sufficient context in many cases, but the concept was certainly there in history class. Hundred years war? Sure, lets have a good long chat about it and why it happened. WW1? WW2? Vietnam? All here, all in horrifying detail. Perhaps again with more attention paid than should be to certain 'victorious' moments and neglecting the tragic elements, but, we saw images of mass graves. Of the dead. We wrote stories about what it might have been like to have been conscripted. What might it have been like to be wounded. What people might have been afraid of back then. The horrors, mud and despair of the trenches. The idiocy of leadership.
But, the Childrens Plague (the first of DOZENS of recurrances of the black plague across centuries which killed millions each time, overwhelmingly children)? Or, the Spanish Flu of 1918? Barely a blip in our history course. I spoke to my dad, and HIS parents never talked about it. Same for my Mum. They did all the same stuff as we are doing today. Modern estimates are that around or greater than 100 million people died. About 1/18 of the people in the entire world. It's probably the most important thing which happened in the entire 20th century and history courses lump it in with 'the closing days of WW1"
"Yes children, and so, the war was coming to a close. And then, there was a nasty flu season. BUT! Lets not dwell on that, who wants to learn about the League of Nations!"
It's not about changing habits. The 1918 flu ended, and we literally had no idea why. We wouldn't know which habits to keep up. We just 'didn't talk about it' for 90 years until H1N1. Do we need some kind of triumphant event to be able to remember something horrific?
I suspect it has to do with agency. We like to think we're in charge, and so history focuses on human actions.
The fact that we're often helpless in the face of uncaring non-human forces is scary, so we tend not to dwell on it.
Sic transit gloria mundi.
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
Plague is also very un-photogenic. People respond to natural disasters we have no control over - but that's because you can see pictures of the devastation. People dying in hospitals or quietly in their homes doesn't produce moving images. Piles of body bags do! But by then it's too late
The Trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the americas has returned its results and they are a slam dunk. 79% effective vs symptomatic disease and 100% vs severe disease and hospitalization. This is excellent because it is a recent trial (so more variety in virus faced) and it should finally allow approval of the vaccine in the US. A blast of 30 million doses would be very welcome right now, and then the US based AZ factories can start contributing to the world effort rather than just filling fridges.
Norway will make its decision on whether or not to resume AZ use this Friday. Rumor mill is that AZ will be discontinued. The argument is that, even if the risk of clotting is relatively low (Norwegian experts are apparently still of the opninion that they're linked), a bunch of recently vaccinated hypocondriacs will place undue burden on the health care system.
anyone have a good link to find out where the US is in percentage of eligible population to have received at least one dose of vaccine?
numbers are all over the place and I can't tell if we're at 12% or closer to 40% =p
According to some cursory google’ing I did earlier for the same reason, around 1/4 of the US is under 18. I’m seeing some talk of vaccines being permitted as low as 16, which messes that guideline up, and then again you have whatever percentage who can’t or shouldn’t get it (the concerns with pregnant women, those with extreme immune disorders, etc).
The more nuance one tries to inject, the more I see why the npr site is just tracking the percentage of the whole population (which is itself a moving target of course).
Especially since even those who aren’t cleared for the vaccine can still get and transmit the disease, obviously. Being “90% vaccinated (of eligible people) but that’s actually only 70%’ish or so is kind of the same problem in reverse.
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more that seems like the right way to present the info.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
Norway will make its decision on whether or not to resume AZ use this Friday. Rumor mill is that AZ will be discontinued. The argument is that, even if the risk of clotting is relatively low (Norwegian experts are apparently still of the opninion that they're linked), a bunch of recently vaccinated hypocondriacs will place undue burden on the health care system.
Those experts will find that a bunch of recently infected covid patients will create an undue burden on the mortuary system instead. But sure, play to the anti vaxx crowd and encourage vaccine hesitancy worldwide.
The risk of this side effect, if it even exists, is irrelevant compared to the risks of the disease. 1/300,000 Americans died of covid every day for the last week, and that was our best week in months!
it explains why the numbers I keep seeing are all over the place
That is a great tracker, but it's also worth noting somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country has actually had covid at this point. So we're probably around ~50 - 60% of the country with some level of immunities at the moment.
it explains why the numbers I keep seeing are all over the place
That is a great tracker, but it's also worth noting somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country has actually had covid at this point. So we're probably around ~50 - 60% of the country with some level of immunities at the moment.
Remember that there is significant overlap between the vaccinated group and the infected group, and the vaccinated group includes both highly spreading people (healthcare workers) and people who spread rarely beyond their homes (old people in care homes).
We are certainly above the 25 ish percent number for people with some immunity, but its almost certainly sub 50%. Also remember that the number that matters is the number who were vaccinated with at least one dose more than 2 weeks ago. Vaccine does nothing for 2 weeks.
I’m sorry we’ve had people say quite seriously that the number of actual covid infected is 5 to 10 times the recorded numbers so ya’ll are around 225% vaccinated or otherwise inoculated.
(Sorry, just a little pent up snark from all those stupid articles last year, don’t mind me)
But seriously those articles were just so dumb.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
There was a time when many places were actively reducing tests in order to make their numbers look better. How much of an effect on numbers that actually had, though...well, that was kind of the point of reducing the number of tests.
Norwegian health authorities conclude that the British mutation is 2.6 times more likely to lead to severe illness than the original strain if you get infected.
The Trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the americas has returned its results and they are a slam dunk. 79% effective vs symptomatic disease and 100% vs severe disease and hospitalization. This is excellent because it is a recent trial (so more variety in virus faced) and it should finally allow approval of the vaccine in the US. A blast of 30 million doses would be very welcome right now, and then the US based AZ factories can start contributing to the world effort rather than just filling fridges.
Probably maybe still a slam dunk, but Astrazeneca is just not great at studies (See also accidentally giving lower doses in the first trial, arbitrarily combining data on efficency after that etc.)
Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.
Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.
edit: regarding the innoculation by infection. A danish study shows that apparently in older (65+) people infection does often not protect from a further infection. That makes the policy to vaccinate everyone regardless of them having had covid before or not the safer choice. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/health/coronavirus-reinfections.html
The Trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the americas has returned its results and they are a slam dunk. 79% effective vs symptomatic disease and 100% vs severe disease and hospitalization. This is excellent because it is a recent trial (so more variety in virus faced) and it should finally allow approval of the vaccine in the US. A blast of 30 million doses would be very welcome right now, and then the US based AZ factories can start contributing to the world effort rather than just filling fridges.
Probably maybe still a slam dunk, but Astrazeneca is just not great at studies (See also accidentally giving lower doses in the first trial, arbitrarily combining data on efficency after that etc.)
Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.
Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.
edit: regarding the innoculation by infection. A danish study shows that apparently in older (65+) people infection does often not protect from a further infection. That makes the policy to vaccinate everyone regardless of them having had covid before or not the safer choice. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/health/coronavirus-reinfections.html
We know from the UK that the vaccine is almost that effective after just one dose, so effacacy seems unlikely to be meaningfully different, and it’s not a safety concern. Hard to read the tea leaves on what is really being said here by the DSMB.
The Trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the americas has returned its results and they are a slam dunk. 79% effective vs symptomatic disease and 100% vs severe disease and hospitalization. This is excellent because it is a recent trial (so more variety in virus faced) and it should finally allow approval of the vaccine in the US. A blast of 30 million doses would be very welcome right now, and then the US based AZ factories can start contributing to the world effort rather than just filling fridges.
Probably maybe still a slam dunk, but Astrazeneca is just not great at studies (See also accidentally giving lower doses in the first trial, arbitrarily combining data on efficency after that etc.)
Late Monday, the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) notified NIAID, BARDA, and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data. We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.
Authorization and guidelines for use of the vaccine in the United States will be determined by the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after thorough review of the data by independent advisory committees.
edit: regarding the innoculation by infection. A danish study shows that apparently in older (65+) people infection does often not protect from a further infection. That makes the policy to vaccinate everyone regardless of them having had covid before or not the safer choice. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/health/coronavirus-reinfections.html
We know from the UK that the vaccine is almost that effective after just one dose, so effacacy seems unlikely to be meaningfully different, and it’s not a safety concern. Hard to read the tea leaves on what is really being said here by the DSMB.
What do you mean tea leaves? It's clear in black and white what DSMB is saying.
The DSMB expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.
DSMB is saying that AZ's results may be incorrect and need further investigation. Even if it is relatively effective having accurate data on that effectiveness drives public health decisions. If AZ says it's 90% effective but the actual data says it's 85% effective +/- 5%, that's a huge failing on AZ's part and immediately begs the question of what other errors are there in their methodology and what other data is being misreported.
I don't disagree with you that it is frustrating that AZ seems to be continually fucking up its relationships with US regulators, but I doubt this functionally affects the results of the trial in a meaningful way. Articles at the new York times make it seem like there is disagreement over the statistical methods being used with the MSRB asking for a supplemental analysis that AZ hasnt finished yet.
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I don't disagree with you that it is frustrating that AZ seems to be continually fucking up its relationships with US regulators, but I doubt this functionally affects the results of the trial in a meaningful way. Articles at the new York times make it seem like there is disagreement over the statistical methods being used with the MSRB asking for a supplemental analysis that AZ hasnt finished yet.
This isn't AZ's first rodeo either, but at this point, they are so far behind Pfizer, Moderna and JJ, by the time they get production up in the US, there won't be a shortage of the other vaccines here. Right now we have about 100 million people who have their first shot (which means they'll be getting the second shot with the same one). Even if AZ were approved right now, they wouldn't be able to get a meaningful amount by June. And we are doing about 2.5-3 million doses a day.
It's actually a pretty impressive rollout. By the time AZ is ready to start in the US, they are going to be fighting for their share of maybe 100 million Americans left?
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
I think we had 7 million doses, but we are gave 4 million of them to Canada and Mexico. Because we can't really use them here. And while we can redirect vaccines produced in the US to the states. AZ can do about 2 million doses a week, and while they can surge more, their ability to do that is severely hampered, because their normal supply chain is currently producing pfizer and moderna vaccines, JJ has a separate supply chain.
There is internal production which these companies are maxing out, but the external production, is all tapped already. Orders are already in, they are going 100%. And in other countries, those countries are for the most part getting the vaccines produced there.
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
I was under the impression that there were a bunch of doses of the AZ vaccine in US warehouses ready to go? At the very least production has certainly already started since I think over 40 countries have been using that particular one already.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
30 million was the number quoted for inventory about a month ago. It's probably more by now.
Honestly we should just either approve the damn things or give them to Canada and Mexico.
Yes you should. the sooner all three countries have high levels of vaccination, the sooner the borders can open.
Yes, but then the border will be open.
And one of the excuses by Republicans why America should close their border, goes away.
Is the southern border even closed? I'm mostly concerned with the northern border, being Canadian
The southern border is currently an absolute shitshow, partially because of COVID, and partially because the previous administration completely dismantled most of the ability to process everything. So the current administration is making some awful decisions, because they don't really have alternatives spun up yet.
But that's another thread.
Fencingsax on
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
In other "this virus is weird" news, MMR also offers some protection against COVID-19. Specifically, one of the Ms - having antibodies against mumps..
The significance of our study is that it showed that mumps titers related to the MMR II vaccine are significantly and inversely correlated with the severity of COVID-19-related symptoms, supporting the theorized association between the MMR vaccine and COVID-19 severity.
Okay, admittedly it also worked if someone had a case of mumps and still had antibodies, but mumps is also the one of the three in MMR that loses its oomph fastest and most commonly so it's the one that needs to be boosted the most. I had to get it a booster a few years ago for that reason, in fact. Some of that "kids don't get COVID as bad" stuff may be because kids would have more recently gotten the MMR vaccine and would still have protection against mumps.
It's not entirely uncommon for one vaccine to provide some protection against something completely different - the meningitis vaccine also gives partial protection against gonorrhea, for instance. I don't know virology well enough to know how closely the functions of the mumps virus map to coronaviruses, but I do suspect that antivaxxers have been doing double-disservice to their kids here.
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All diseases do that till we learn about them. Its why studying novel diseases is fun.
I don't think the virus is quite as 'interesting' as we read in the press, since what we see is every pre print, every half baked study and every novel take, whereas we rarely see "virus continues to behave as expected in models" even though that is what happens almost all the time.
It's interesting because all viruses are interesting, and because it's devastating and novel. But, if we were to approach a flu season with the same breathless, no filter approach to studies and news we'd find you could report on all the same sort of things.
The interesting thing to me has overwhelmingly been people's responses and how short our memories are to the fear we felt. Cases have gone down almost every time because fear drove people to comply with rules, and risen when that fear ran out. It's amazing to me how quickly the fear abates. How bad our societal memory is. I guess it explains why noone talked about the Spanish flu at all while I was in school. We seem to have no ability to remember how pandemics made us feel beyond a month or so.
The history of humanity is of being periodically wiped out by disease, so I guess we've evolved mental defenses so that we can pick ourselves up and move on after the plague rolled into town and left half the town dead. (and Covid-19 was nowhere near as bad as the plague)
It seems confirmed (not yet peer reviewed) that the Thrombosis+platelet count problem is a very rare case of an extreme reaction of the immune system. This kind of autoimmune response where the body attacks its platelets was already known, but now is linked to all the reports of the last few weeks.
The good news is that it is very rare and detecteable and treatable if found in time, the downside is that the symptoms start very generic (increasing headaches after vaccination). People that have increasing complaints a week out of vaccination may need to check their symptoms.
https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/21/experts-found-astrazeneca-vaccine-may-cause-blood-clotting-disorders
The likelihood is still estimated in the 1:1m range (25 known cases in the EU on ~25m vaccine doses administered, 9 fatalities, odds should improve now that a treatment is prescribed)
I dunno if it's that, or if people are just lazy and resistant to changing their habits any more, or longer, than they're absolutely required to. They want to get back to their groove/rut ASAP and stop thinking about anything outside of it.
I disagree on this though. We seem to be eminently capable of remembering war, and its associated devastation. I've spent weeks of my life learning about the horrors of the blitz, or even the atrocities of nazi concentration camps. I've learned about people throughout history who have starved other people, poisoned them, bombed them and enslaved them. Perhaps without sufficient context in many cases, but the concept was certainly there in history class. Hundred years war? Sure, lets have a good long chat about it and why it happened. WW1? WW2? Vietnam? All here, all in horrifying detail. Perhaps again with more attention paid than should be to certain 'victorious' moments and neglecting the tragic elements, but, we saw images of mass graves. Of the dead. We wrote stories about what it might have been like to have been conscripted. What might it have been like to be wounded. What people might have been afraid of back then. The horrors, mud and despair of the trenches. The idiocy of leadership.
But, the Childrens Plague (the first of DOZENS of recurrances of the black plague across centuries which killed millions each time, overwhelmingly children)? Or, the Spanish Flu of 1918? Barely a blip in our history course. I spoke to my dad, and HIS parents never talked about it. Same for my Mum. They did all the same stuff as we are doing today. Modern estimates are that around or greater than 100 million people died. About 1/18 of the people in the entire world. It's probably the most important thing which happened in the entire 20th century and history courses lump it in with 'the closing days of WW1"
"Yes children, and so, the war was coming to a close. And then, there was a nasty flu season. BUT! Lets not dwell on that, who wants to learn about the League of Nations!"
It's not about changing habits. The 1918 flu ended after a few years, and we literally had no idea why. We wouldn't know which habits to keep up. We just 'didn't talk about it' for 90 years until H1N1. Do we need some kind of triumphant event to be able to remember something horrific?
edit - Perhaps its a culture wide derivative of the way gamblers only remember when they won. Effectively, vs every 'active and emerging' plague in history other than a few notable outliers (Antrax, Smallpox, Polio) we lost. We remember those victories against disease. But are we just incapable of culturally recalling terrifying defeats?
I suspect it has to do with agency. We like to think we're in charge, and so history focuses on human actions.
The fact that we're often helpless in the face of uncaring non-human forces is scary, so we tend not to dwell on it.
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The Trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine in the americas has returned its results and they are a slam dunk. 79% effective vs symptomatic disease and 100% vs severe disease and hospitalization. This is excellent because it is a recent trial (so more variety in virus faced) and it should finally allow approval of the vaccine in the US. A blast of 30 million doses would be very welcome right now, and then the US based AZ factories can start contributing to the world effort rather than just filling fridges.
numbers are all over the place and I can't tell if we're at 12% or closer to 40% =p
The WaPo home page has a tracker
Edit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/?tid=a_classic-iphone&no_nav=true
According to some cursory google’ing I did earlier for the same reason, around 1/4 of the US is under 18. I’m seeing some talk of vaccines being permitted as low as 16, which messes that guideline up, and then again you have whatever percentage who can’t or shouldn’t get it (the concerns with pregnant women, those with extreme immune disorders, etc).
The more nuance one tries to inject, the more I see why the npr site is just tracking the percentage of the whole population (which is itself a moving target of course).
Especially since even those who aren’t cleared for the vaccine can still get and transmit the disease, obviously. Being “90% vaccinated (of eligible people) but that’s actually only 70%’ish or so is kind of the same problem in reverse.
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more that seems like the right way to present the info.
this is perfect, thank you!
it explains why the numbers I keep seeing are all over the place
Those experts will find that a bunch of recently infected covid patients will create an undue burden on the mortuary system instead. But sure, play to the anti vaxx crowd and encourage vaccine hesitancy worldwide.
The risk of this side effect, if it even exists, is irrelevant compared to the risks of the disease. 1/300,000 Americans died of covid every day for the last week, and that was our best week in months!
That is a great tracker, but it's also worth noting somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country has actually had covid at this point. So we're probably around ~50 - 60% of the country with some level of immunities at the moment.
Remember that there is significant overlap between the vaccinated group and the infected group, and the vaccinated group includes both highly spreading people (healthcare workers) and people who spread rarely beyond their homes (old people in care homes).
We are certainly above the 25 ish percent number for people with some immunity, but its almost certainly sub 50%. Also remember that the number that matters is the number who were vaccinated with at least one dose more than 2 weeks ago. Vaccine does nothing for 2 weeks.
(Sorry, just a little pent up snark from all those stupid articles last year, don’t mind me)
But seriously those articles were just so dumb.
Probably maybe still a slam dunk, but Astrazeneca is just not great at studies (See also accidentally giving lower doses in the first trial, arbitrarily combining data on efficency after that etc.)
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-statement-astrazeneca-vaccine
edit: regarding the innoculation by infection. A danish study shows that apparently in older (65+) people infection does often not protect from a further infection. That makes the policy to vaccinate everyone regardless of them having had covid before or not the safer choice.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/health/coronavirus-reinfections.html
We know from the UK that the vaccine is almost that effective after just one dose, so effacacy seems unlikely to be meaningfully different, and it’s not a safety concern. Hard to read the tea leaves on what is really being said here by the DSMB.
What do you mean tea leaves? It's clear in black and white what DSMB is saying.
DSMB is saying that AZ's results may be incorrect and need further investigation. Even if it is relatively effective having accurate data on that effectiveness drives public health decisions. If AZ says it's 90% effective but the actual data says it's 85% effective +/- 5%, that's a huge failing on AZ's part and immediately begs the question of what other errors are there in their methodology and what other data is being misreported.
I don't disagree with you that it is frustrating that AZ seems to be continually fucking up its relationships with US regulators, but I doubt this functionally affects the results of the trial in a meaningful way. Articles at the new York times make it seem like there is disagreement over the statistical methods being used with the MSRB asking for a supplemental analysis that AZ hasnt finished yet.
It's actually a pretty impressive rollout. By the time AZ is ready to start in the US, they are going to be fighting for their share of maybe 100 million Americans left?
There is internal production which these companies are maxing out, but the external production, is all tapped already. Orders are already in, they are going 100%. And in other countries, those countries are for the most part getting the vaccines produced there.
About 30 million of them I believe. Some of which are or already have been sent to Mexico and Canada
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mexico/us-to-share-4-million-doses-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-with-mexico-canada-idUSKBN2BA22S
30 million was the number quoted for inventory about a month ago. It's probably more by now.
Honestly we should just either approve the damn things or give them to Canada and Mexico.
Yes you should. the sooner all three countries have high levels of vaccination, the sooner the borders can open.
Yes, but then the border will be open.
And one of the excuses by Republicans why America should close their border, goes away.
Is the southern border even closed? I'm mostly concerned with the northern border, being Canadian
The southern border is currently an absolute shitshow, partially because of COVID, and partially because the previous administration completely dismantled most of the ability to process everything. So the current administration is making some awful decisions, because they don't really have alternatives spun up yet.
But that's another thread.
Okay, admittedly it also worked if someone had a case of mumps and still had antibodies, but mumps is also the one of the three in MMR that loses its oomph fastest and most commonly so it's the one that needs to be boosted the most. I had to get it a booster a few years ago for that reason, in fact. Some of that "kids don't get COVID as bad" stuff may be because kids would have more recently gotten the MMR vaccine and would still have protection against mumps.
It's not entirely uncommon for one vaccine to provide some protection against something completely different - the meningitis vaccine also gives partial protection against gonorrhea, for instance. I don't know virology well enough to know how closely the functions of the mumps virus map to coronaviruses, but I do suspect that antivaxxers have been doing double-disservice to their kids here.