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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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Posts

  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Another 300 drop coming for Georgia in about 15 minutes supposedly.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    I wonder how the right wing echo chambers are reacting to this? typically in the past particularly during the impeachment hearings and the like, you would read some bit of news about Trump taking a hefty blow and they would have managed to convince themselves it was a great victory. Ever since the Donald rightfully got removed from Reddit, I haven't actually really known where to find the right wing echo chambers.

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    I wonder how the right wing echo chambers are reacting to this? typically in the past particularly during the impeachment hearings and the like, you would read some bit of news about Trump taking a hefty blow and they would have managed to convince themselves it was a great victory. Ever since the Donald rightfully got removed from Reddit, I haven't actually really known where to find the right wing echo chambers.

    From what I can tell, they're still waffling between "Trump is going to be declared the winner in PA, AZ and GA so suck on that libs" and "This was all stolen from him! He's the real winner!"

    They haven't solidified their narrative yet. Which is why, again, refusing to call these states is dangerous.

    Raijumoniker
  • y2jake215y2jake215 certified Flat Birther theorist the Last Good Boy onlineRegistered User regular
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Imagine being a trumper and knowing you’ll probably lose but just hoping, as we all do, and having to see the lead slowly cut over days and days...

    C8Ft8GE.jpg
    maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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  • Munkus BeaverMunkus Beaver Registered User, ClubPA regular
    y2jake215 wrote: »
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Imagine being a trumper and knowing you’ll probably lose but just hoping, as we all do, and having to see the lead slowly cut over days and days...

    I keep thinking about that one person's coworker who bet $14,000 on Trump's re-election.

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  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    y2jake215 wrote: »
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Imagine being a trumper and knowing you’ll probably lose but just hoping, as we all do, and having to see the lead slowly cut over days and days...

    It’s literally the only thing keeping me from really hating this wait, that hardcore true believer trumpets are waiting and watching too, and hating it even more

    FencingsaxRaiju
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    I seem to recall some angst amongst the pundit class when Stacey Abrams decided to pass on a Senate run in favor of local organizing in Georgia. I don't know how we begin to repay her for the debt we owe.

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    I wonder how the right wing echo chambers are reacting to this? typically in the past particularly during the impeachment hearings and the like, you would read some bit of news about Trump taking a hefty blow and they would have managed to convince themselves it was a great victory. Ever since the Donald rightfully got removed from Reddit, I haven't actually really known where to find the right wing echo chambers.

    From what I can tell, they're still waffling between "Trump is going to be declared the winner in PA, AZ and GA so suck on that libs" and "This was all stolen from him! He's the real winner!"

    They haven't solidified their narrative yet. Which is why, again, refusing to call these states is dangerous.

    This election won't be called until PA's margin gets over remaining votes. They've waited this long, why bother rushing it at the end.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    Commander ZoomProhassmonikermarajiNitsua
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    I wonder how the right wing echo chambers are reacting to this? typically in the past particularly during the impeachment hearings and the like, you would read some bit of news about Trump taking a hefty blow and they would have managed to convince themselves it was a great victory. Ever since the Donald rightfully got removed from Reddit, I haven't actually really known where to find the right wing echo chambers.

    From what I can tell, they're still waffling between "Trump is going to be declared the winner in PA, AZ and GA so suck on that libs" and "This was all stolen from him! He's the real winner!"

    They haven't solidified their narrative yet. Which is why, again, refusing to call these states is dangerous.

    This election won't be called until PA's margin gets over remaining votes. They've waited this long, why bother rushing it at the end.

    Because the longer you wait, the more time you give a "who knows who won the election? Both sides are saying different things" narrative to build momentum

    shrykeCantide
  • NumiNumi Registered User regular


    Speaking of slowly losing, this popped up in my feed and I do love me a bit of maths.

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  • HonkHonk Honk is this poster. Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    Trump’s speech from a few hours ago. He’s sounding like a 10 year old who lost at League.

    God damn this man is insane.

    PSN: Honkalot
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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    So to hit on what the GOP does in regards to Trump. Not much, he is going to be a thorn in their side for some time.

    -You can bet your ass he'll loot their coffers, if he hasn't drained them completely already because grift is his thing.
    -I don't think they have anyone that can replace him. Fucker spent years building his shitty brand and he had the garbage that was the Apprentice to further build his brand with many low information voters. Something that most might miss, if they never had to suffer through any episodes of that fucking garbage because of family members (admittedly it was partial episodes), boy did that show try real fucking hard to make the firings as something that Trump didn't want to do because he totally wasn't a fucking awful guy (we all know he didn't because he is a coward and doesn't want to do it straight to people's faces). Anyways those low information voters are looking at Trump as the asshole boss that will fire you just because. They honestly believe he isn't an asshole boss and that anyone he shits on brought it upon themselves. Yes, it's a bullshit lie, but the GOP doesn't have any other filthy rich shitheads they can trot out that won't immediately get labeled as fucking asshole boss by Trump's base. Also the wealthy assholes of the party don't want to say the isms out loud because unlike Trump, at least part of their business model makes an attempt to actually sell shit and the isms are really bad for business. The GOP really doesn't have another Trump. So it's a question of how much of their base leaves them once Trump is no longer backing them.
    -Trump and his spawn already are bringing out the knives. I fully expect them to dump dirt on the GOP because their con is up. They know that Daddy Trump is going to jail and his adult children may also end up seeing jail time. As far as they are concerned, there is zero reason not to burn every bridge they can on the way out because the dumb fuckers likely thought the GOP wouldn't turn on them.

    The only saving grace for the GOP is the NY is going to put Trump behind bars or at the very least muzzle the fucker. So Trump will eventually go away in the next few years because NY will make him go away. His kids just don't have that much clout, they might be able to stir the pot if they are out of jail about how their daddy is in jail or under some sort of house arrest that bars him from social media. Of course, the problem is, it'll probably be a few years and that's plenty of time for Trump to insert the knife multiple times and twist it.

    Doodmann
  • jungleroomxjungleroomx Never pre-order anything. Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    sanstodo wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    163k or so, with some 7-12.5k in limbo depending if that was actually Philly just now or not.

    The people with lots of access to the data (twitter pollsters) seem to be starting to get pretty confident, but, they've been confident for says and were saying we were going to get more than 200k lead in Pensylvania? Did they slash the amount of outstanding ballots at some point? This whole process is just a joke. People posting updates in different places, in different ways.

    I swear I'm so stressed I could explode. I really had high hopes for the

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    githhub thing here, and it gave me good stuff throughout the day (although I corrected the ballots outstanding down from what they say, I figured there were actually 180k left as of the last update on it), but now it has gone to sleep because like, the NYT isn't updating.

    Seriously people, I've not slept in days. Get a night shift and a day shift and count ballots and post ballots. The middle of the night is the PERFECT time to announce a lead change, because it will be hours in the past by the time angry people wake up and read it.

    Go to bed. Everything is fine. Seriously, everything is fine. Maybe some champagne or beer in the fridge so you can have a celebration drink when you wake up.

    We've given Trump enough of our lives. It's time to move past him because, in the words of philosopher Andrew W.K., living a happy life is the best revenge.

    About 150k last I heard.

    He needs to be in fucking jail, not given a pass to retire happily.

    I am not willing, ready, or able to forgive what that human garbage pile did to so many people in this country, and just letting him go off into the sunset is fucking unconscionable.

    No.

    jungleroomx on
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  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    Honk wrote: »
    Trump’s speech from a few hours ago. He’s sounding like a 10 year old who lost at League.

    God damn this man is insane.

    It would have been scarier if he didn’t sound so defeated and bored

    HonkFencingsaxmaraji
  • The Dude With HerpesThe Dude With Herpes Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    y2jake215 wrote: »
    Aesop taught us slow and steady wins the race.

    The mail-in ballots are inexorably moving things more Biden,, like a Michael Meyers draped in blue.

    Imagine being a trumper and knowing you’ll probably lose but just hoping, as we all do, and having to see the lead slowly cut over days and days...

    I keep thinking about that one person's coworker who bet $14,000 on Trump's re-election.

    Sounds like someone is theoretically making $14k for choosing correctly!

    A fool and his money, and all that.

    I'm trying my best to remember that, even for all the garbage that exists right now, it doesn't mean a victory isn't a victory. I can't let myself keep falling into the frustration that so many still support Trump and treat the actual (still, I guess, theoretical) victory like a loss.

    EDIT: If anyone wants to distract themselves, Colbert tonight is something else. He never shied from shitting on Trump; but this feels like a particular amount of no fucks. :lol:

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  • HamHamJHamHamJ Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    I wonder how the right wing echo chambers are reacting to this? typically in the past particularly during the impeachment hearings and the like, you would read some bit of news about Trump taking a hefty blow and they would have managed to convince themselves it was a great victory. Ever since the Donald rightfully got removed from Reddit, I haven't actually really known where to find the right wing echo chambers.

    From what I can tell, they're still waffling between "Trump is going to be declared the winner in PA, AZ and GA so suck on that libs" and "This was all stolen from him! He's the real winner!"

    They haven't solidified their narrative yet. Which is why, again, refusing to call these states is dangerous.

    That would seem to prove the opposite actually? If they stay disorganized they can't do as much to stop it. Once there is a final certified count it's going to be much harder to roll it back, so if they can be strung along on delusions that key states may still flip that's all the better.

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  • RehabRehab Registered User regular
    From earlier in the day, but I missed it:




    NEW: I’m told that President Trump can’t get his messaging straight on counting the votes because he doesn’t understand what “stop the count” means. On a call this morning, an adviser had to explain to him that if they stopped counting votes right now, he would lose the election.

    I’m told that on the phone call this morning, Trump said he assumed people knew that by “stop the count” he didn’t mean he wanted to stop the count. The adviser had to explain to him that actually people figured he meant he wanted to stop the count when he said “stop the count.”

    Olivia Nuzzi is a Washington correspondent for New York Magazine.

    “When I said no problem what I meant was ‘No! Problem’

    NNID: Rehab0
    Fencingsaxmonikermaraji
  • sanstodosanstodo Registered User regular
    sanstodo wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    according to the secstate website, philadelphia still has 58k mail in votes left to count.

    at a <20k margin, and philly mail ins going 93/7 for biden

    well, that math isn't particularly difficult. i think that news orgs are going to wait for philly and the allegheny county dump to finish before saying anything unless margin gets over remaining.

    The other ballots have also been pretty blue too right? There aren't only 58k ballots left in the whole state. I thought we had about 180k left?

    163k or so, with some 7-12.5k in limbo depending if that was actually Philly just now or not.

    The people with lots of access to the data (twitter pollsters) seem to be starting to get pretty confident, but, they've been confident for says and were saying we were going to get more than 200k lead in Pensylvania? Did they slash the amount of outstanding ballots at some point? This whole process is just a joke. People posting updates in different places, in different ways.

    I swear I'm so stressed I could explode. I really had high hopes for the

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    githhub thing here, and it gave me good stuff throughout the day (although I corrected the ballots outstanding down from what they say, I figured there were actually 180k left as of the last update on it), but now it has gone to sleep because like, the NYT isn't updating.

    Seriously people, I've not slept in days. Get a night shift and a day shift and count ballots and post ballots. The middle of the night is the PERFECT time to announce a lead change, because it will be hours in the past by the time angry people wake up and read it.

    Go to bed. Everything is fine. Seriously, everything is fine. Maybe some champagne or beer in the fridge so you can have a celebration drink when you wake up.

    We've given Trump enough of our lives. It's time to move past him because, in the words of philosopher Andrew W.K., living a happy life is the best revenge.

    About 150k last I heard.

    He needs to be in fucking jail, not given a pass to retire happily.

    I am not willing, ready, or able to forgive what that human garbage pile did to so many people in this country, and just letting him go off into the sunset is fucking unconscionable.

    No.

    That's not what I'm saying. Trump deserves what is coming to him. We should hold him accountable to the full extent of the law.

    But revenge isn't going to be what fixes this nation or helps us recover from these terrible years. Trump has always wanted to take up space in people's lives, good or bad, because it's the only thing that can fill the gaping hole in his own soul.

    So once he and his family are put away for good, the best thing we can do, for ourselves and for the nation, is to reclaim that space for ourselves.

    This election is a start to the healing process. Not a perfect start, but a start nonetheless. Where it goes from here is up to us.

  • JaysonFourJaysonFour Classy Monster Kitteh Registered User regular
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    steam_sig.png
  • Munkus BeaverMunkus Beaver Registered User, ClubPA regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    Just go to bed the world will keep spinning while you're asleep.

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  • AegeriAegeri Plateau of LengRegistered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    Friday morning US time was always going to be the moment that we'd have the clearest idea of the resolution. You're not going to get it tonight and I would say it won't be certain until Friday evening US.

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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    Clayton is very, very slowly dropping batches of a couple hundred at a time. It's unclear just how long they are going to keep at it. PA has been deathly silent on any official timetables. There's in theory 7-12.5k votes floating in the ether that came off the SoS website but haven't been reported yet. Philly could drop at any time, but we've been given no reason to believe it will.

    If you need sleep, go get it. There's going to be plenty of drama and probably a recount in Georgia to stress over in the future. Take the rest while you can now.

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  • cj iwakuracj iwakura The Rhythm Regent The World on This SideRegistered User regular
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    rpcJVoo.png
    Nitsua
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    cj iwakura wrote: »
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    Not really, no. I still say impeach the fucker one more time for good measure though.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
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  • HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?
    Seriously there's been no reason to watch the play-by-play of this because what matters is the conclusion. Which is days away and will come in phases.

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  • AegeriAegeri Plateau of LengRegistered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    Clayton is very, very slowly dropping batches of a couple hundred at a time. It's unclear just how long they are going to keep at it. PA has been deathly silent on any official timetables. There's in theory 7-12.5k votes floating in the ether that came off the SoS website but haven't been reported yet. Philly could drop at any time, but we've been given no reason to believe it will.

    If you need sleep, go get it. There's going to be plenty of drama and probably a recount in Georgia to stress over in the future. Take the rest while you can now.

    At this stage with the way PA is probably going to end up, a recount in GA will just be wasting time on an overall victory (hopefully).

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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Aegeri wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    JaysonFour wrote: »
    So should we be expecting any more news tonight or should I take my usual and get some sleep?

    Clayton is very, very slowly dropping batches of a couple hundred at a time. It's unclear just how long they are going to keep at it. PA has been deathly silent on any official timetables. There's in theory 7-12.5k votes floating in the ether that came off the SoS website but haven't been reported yet. Philly could drop at any time, but we've been given no reason to believe it will.

    If you need sleep, go get it. There's going to be plenty of drama and probably a recount in Georgia to stress over in the future. Take the rest while you can now.

    At this stage with the way PA is probably going to end up, a recount in GA will just be wasting time on an overall victory (hopefully).

    Undoubtedly, but it doesn't mean it won't happen, and people won't stress over it.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
    Phoenix-D
  • webguy20webguy20 I spend too much time on the Internet Registered User regular
    cj iwakura wrote: »
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    Well that hinges on how broken our government is, how many people in it are personally loyal to Trump(loyal enough to commit treason), and how the Q folks and other militias and stuff react.

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  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    webguy20 wrote: »
    cj iwakura wrote: »
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    Well that hinges on how broken our government is, how many people in it are personally loyal to Trump(loyal enough to commit treason), and how the Q folks and other militias and stuff react.

    violence by far right militias and extremist groups only makes biden look more legitimate. And they know this. That's why the boogaloo proud boy whatevers joined all the BLM marches to smash windows and burn down police stations. They want the other side to look violent. So they're not a problem unless Trump does something drastic and isn't opposed, causing mass protests.

  • sanstodosanstodo Registered User regular
    cj iwakura wrote: »
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    In theory, kind of? In practice, no. SCOTUS has no reason to intervene (plus there’s no plausible case like Bush v Gore that would matter, at least not in the pipeline) and faithless electors are unlikely to matter given Biden should have a solid margin of victory.

    The military hates Trump (the brass at least) and he underperformed down ballot republicans (suggesting he hurt the party rather than helped it). There’s no reason for party leaders to risk everything on a wild gamble for a guy they hate and doesn’t provide them with much they need.

    McConnell has always been more comfortable in opposition so he won’t mind a trump victory provided the senate stays with the GOP.

    The thing about bullies is when they lose and show weakness, they wind up alone. No one sticks with Trump out of real loyalty. Once they have no reason to fear him and nothing to gain from him, he’ll find himself alone in the dark.

    cj iwakurarahkeesh2000htmStarZapperInkstain82Duke 2.0Red or AliveRaijumoniker
  • sanstodosanstodo Registered User regular
    notya wrote: »
    webguy20 wrote: »
    cj iwakura wrote: »
    So even in the nightmare scenario that Trump refuses to concede, if Biden wins, he has no real recourse, right?

    Well that hinges on how broken our government is, how many people in it are personally loyal to Trump(loyal enough to commit treason), and how the Q folks and other militias and stuff react.

    violence by far right militias and extremist groups only makes biden look more legitimate. And they know this. That's why the boogaloo proud boy whatevers joined all the BLM marches to smash windows and burn down police stations. They want the other side to look violent. So they're not a problem unless Trump does something drastic and isn't opposed, causing mass protests.

    And let’s be honest, Trump hasn’t exactly projected unbelievable strength over the last few days. He’s not Mussolini declaring that he’s just come from the battlefields (a lie, but a good one).

    The last press conference made him look weak and alone. He didn’t have generals with him or lackeys to do his bidding. Just a sad, rambling old man watching his sand castle wash away.

    htmIncenjucarElvenshaeDhalphirRaijuzagdrobFleur de Alysmoniker
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    So I am hitting the point where I'm fairly confident Georgia doesn't flip tonight. Only Clayton is updating that we know of, and they've been averaging 300 an hour, which means it'll be another 5-6 hours before we'd see any action.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
    Jebus314
  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    So I am hitting the point where I'm fairly confident Georgia doesn't flip tonight. Only Clayton is updating that we know of, and they've been averaging 300 an hour, which means it'll be another 5-6 hours before we'd see any action.

    Yeah, wouldn't surprise if they're dragging it out so that they can make their big announcement during daylight hours.

    JaysonFourGiggles_FunsworthElvenshae
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Real interested in how many ballots got stuck in the mail.

  • JaysonFourJaysonFour Classy Monster Kitteh Registered User regular
    htm wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    So I am hitting the point where I'm fairly confident Georgia doesn't flip tonight. Only Clayton is updating that we know of, and they've been averaging 300 an hour, which means it'll be another 5-6 hours before we'd see any action.

    Yeah, wouldn't surprise if they're dragging it out so that they can make their big announcement during daylight hours.

    Everybody wants their part of the freaking spotlight.

    And on a snack of a pile of White Castles and a dose of ZzzQuil, I’m off to crash.

    steam_sig.png
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  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    From Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Baseballogist:

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  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular


    GA Presidential Election Results

    Trump (R): 49.39% (2,448,183 votes)
    Biden (D): 49.37% (2,447,518 votes)

    Trump Margin: +665 (-602)
    Estimated: > 99% votes in

    (Via Decision Desk)

    IncenjucarStabbity StylehtmDacInkstain82AegeriRhesus PositiveCorvusFencingsaxRaijuCommander ZoomGennenalyse RuebenmonikerElvenshae
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    How many votes was that out of?

  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    God damn, 600+ votes.

    How many more are outstanding?

    SijLqhH.png
    Steam: stabbitystyle | uPlay: stabbitystyle | b.net: Stabbity#1528 | XBL: Stabbity Style | PSN: Stabbity_Style | Twitch: stabbitystyle
    RaijuElvenshae
  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    And on that high note, I am out for the night.

    May The Needle not smile on you, for that would be your doom.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

    htm on
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