Sadr’s movement is unusual and difficult to understand under a non-Iraqi framework.
He’s a nationalist, populist, Islamist, technocrat who commonly allies with liberals, the kurds, and communists and is rabidly against the influence of both Iran and the US.
If that doesn’t make any sense at all to you then welcome to Iraq.
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Zavianuniversal peace sounds better than forever warRegistered Userregular
Huh, I always though the Shia in Iraq as being at least friendly with Iran. I mean if you are Anti-US and Anti-Iran who are you going to make friends with in the region?
nationalism really sours any sense of religious unity; the Iraq/Iran War is also remembered still by a lot of the population
"They may be dirty commies, but they're Iraqi dirty commies at least"
Before 2007 or so Al-Sadr was just your usual Shiite militia guy, but Al Sadr spent four years in exile in Iran during the Iraq war, apparently something went horribly wrong there because when he got back to Iraq he was strongly anti-Iranian.
A charitable read might be that he allies with liberals, communists, kurds, etc because he is a technocrat that wants a functional government instead of a nonfunctional government that vacillates between being a US and Iranian puppet. A more cynical read may be that he is using them as a cats paw to help get the Iranian backed factions out of power so he can take power himself.
Regardless he’s done this “Things aren’t going my way so I retire forever, oh the people demand it so I guess I’ll come back” thing before so its more likely a signal to inspire mass protests than anything serious.
Sadr’s movement is unusual and difficult to understand under a non-Iraqi framework.
He’s a nationalist, populist, Islamist, technocrat who commonly allies with liberals, the kurds, and communists and is rabidly against the influence of both Iran and the US.
If that doesn’t make any sense at all to you then welcome to Iraq.
It does make sense. The nationalist, not wanting to be ruled by foreign powers political movement has to be filled with something, no matter how good or bad they are at it.
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Zavianuniversal peace sounds better than forever warRegistered Userregular
TEL AVIV — Foreign passport holders in the West Bank will be required to report their romantic relationships with Palestinians to Israeli authorities, according to new, hotly contested rules set to take effect on Monday.
Palestinian legal experts and human rights advocates say the move, which would also restrict Palestinians from visiting family members and sharply limit Palestinian academic exchanges with foreign universities, is an escalation of an already entrenched system of discrimination against Palestinians in the West Bank, which Israel captured in 1967.
The 97-page Israeli ordinance detailing the new restrictions requires foreign passport holders, including, in some cases, American Palestinian dual citizens, in a romantic relationship with a Palestinian resident of the West Bank to “inform” Israeli security authorities “in writing (at a special e-mail address) within 30 days of the relationship’s start.”
“The ‘starting date of the relationship’ shall be considered the day of the engagement ceremony, of the wedding, or of the start of cohabitation — whichever occurs first,” it said.
The new restrictions — which also ask applicants to declare if they have land or are inheriting land in the West Bank — would not apply to the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. The territory’s two-tiered legal structure treats Jewish Israelis as citizens living under civilian rule while Palestinians are treated as combatants under military rule, subject to nighttime military raids, detention and bans on visiting their ancestral lands or accessing certain roads.
...
The new rules allow 100 professors and 150 students with foreign passports to stay in the West Bank — a substantial blow to Palestinian higher education institutions. They rely on academic collaborations and recruit hundreds of foreign passport-holding students every year. More than 350 European university students and staff studied or worked at Palestinian universities under the Erasmus program, an E.U. student exchange program, in 2020, up from just 51 five years earlier.
Iran is starting to run out of feet to shoot at. Albania has just severed diplomatic relations with Iran over a massive attempted cyber attack on state targets.
American officials, angry at the state of Iran for the alleged cyber-attack on another nation. Now to take a big sip of water and look at the history of cyber-activity of the US and Iran.
Am I crazy, or was there an actual chance for Iran relations before the last Administration fucked it all up?
My personal conclusion is that a true rapprochement was never truly an option. The Republicans and the IRGC are too convenient as enemies for each other because their bases are rabidly anti-brown people and anti-West, respectively, and thus they'd lose power without a bogeyman to scare their supporters with.
A revival of the US-Iran deal was reported as potentially going down soon only like a week or two ago. Reporting from a few days ago said it was hitting some snags but still.
This stuff today may throw a wrench in the whole thing though.
The U.S. National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday called for Iran to be held accountable for an “unprecedented” cyberattack it said the country committed against Albania in July.
NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a release the United States condemns Iran’s actions and plans to hold Iran accountable for threatening the security of an ally and setting a “troubling precedent” for cyberspace.
Damn, it would suck if someone out there set a troubling precedent. I hate it when people do that.
“Malicious cyber activity by a State that intentionally damages critical infrastructure or otherwise impairs its use and operation to provide services to the public can have cascading domestic, regional, and global effects; pose an elevated risk of harm to the population; and may lead to escalation and conflict,” she said.
Malicious cyber activity can have all these cascading effects? Sounds bad, we should definitely condemn whoever starts doing it.
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
Albania and Iran have had tense relations since 2014, when Albania accepted some 3,000 members of the exiled opposition group People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, also known by its Farsi name Mujahideen-e-Khalq, who have settled in a camp near Durres, the country's main port.
U.S. Cybersecurity firm Mandiant, which noted the hacking activity in a blog post earlier this month, said the group - which had ties to Iran - deployed a complex attack which used malicious data-wiping software against Iranian dissidents.
Good question. Quick review is that Albania is a NATO member and has close relationships with Kosovo. So, besides general "NATO bad", the only other people that are their enemies are the Serbs, and nobody should care about their opinion.
However, the BBC article linked explains what this is about:
Earlier this month, US cyber-security firm Mandiant said it had concluded "with moderate confidence" that "one or multiple threat actors who have operated in support of Iranian goals" were involved in the attack.
Mandiant noted that the disruption had come days before the start of a conference in Albanian town of Manez that was affiliated with the exiled Iranian opposition group Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK).
The event was subsequently postponed following warnings of "terrorist" threats.
The firm likewise cited a video featuring the Albanian residence permits of purported MEK members that was posted on the Telegram channel used by a group named "HomeLand Justice" to claim credit for the cyber-attack.
It said a ransomware sample also included the text: "Why should our taxes be spent on the benefit of DURRES terrorists?"
Manez is a town in Durres County and is the location of a camp where about 3,000 MEK members have been allowed to live since 2013 at the request of the US and United Nations.
So, since Albania was picked as a location to shelter Iranian exiles in 2013, the Iranians got mad about it. That's literally it.
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
Fascinating, thanks folks. There was also the story of Russian agents in Albania getting in a shootout a few weeks back. I thought it was weird that Albania was targeted twice by "enemy nations" so close together.
I would classify MEK as terrorist cult organization. Straight up. I don’t think this means they necessarily means they have no rights or should be deported or left unprotected, but the general attitude governments have around it has been horrendous. I feel sorry for their members.
So, since Albania was picked as a location to shelter Iranian exiles in 2013, the Iranians got mad about it. That's literally it.
I think one thing that should be added here is that members of the organization have been trained to take part in Israel’s assassination program of Iranian nuclear scientists, which should not be an unprecedented thing for MEK members to do, after all they joined Saddam’s war effort on Iran. It could be argued that no one knows for sure if anyone from Albania has been part of any assassinations, but I’d wonder how an argument like that would go if it was American nuclear scientists being gunned down in the streets or car bombed.
I wanted to ask is this incident the IRGC trying to mess up negotiations between the EU Iranian leadership and Biden?
Cuz that's the only thing I can figure otherwise I don't get the quibono of this
Albania is not going to give up the MEK because of stuff like this people just get ticked off and hold on to their beliefs harder Iran can't actually do any real damage to the MEK like this.
German news magazine Der Spiegel has a series of articles about the German part of the retreat from Kabul. It's an interesting read. Harrowing and infuriating. Warning: description and a few pictures of serious bodily harm and death, especially in the last article
There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios... and that's Turkey. Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways. One of the most recent has been Turkey's arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. Even with Turkey's erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc's conflict with the Russians over Ukraine.
But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria. The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran--all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.
The common thread across Syria and Armenia is that Turkey is methodically turfing out Russia from its neighbourhood and regions where Moscow has held a strategic edge over its geopolitical rivals in recent years.
Iran doesn't need Russia, though holding out for talks on the Iran deal makes sense if you are counting on Iran having a weaker hand. Syria however, is kinda screwed without it. So expect further "renegotiations" around.
So this map is the key to understanding Turkey’s goals.
Those red areas (both light and dark) are areas where the majority of the population speaks a turkic language very similar to Turkish. The solid are majority and the hashes are minority. These areas are basically Turkey’s shopping list for their foreign policy, with the other colored areas where similar but more distant Turkic people live being various stretch goals where Turkey would at least like to have influence.
So if you’re Turkey its pretty obvious that your main obstacles to getting what you want which is a big pan Turkic empire are Russia and Iran (and down the road probably China.). So yeah, Russia going to hell is a big deal, and is probably going to lead towards a Turkish play for power and major instability in the Caucasus and central asia.
Met President @RTErdogan and reviewed the full range of bilateral relations between India and Turkey including ways to deepen economic linkages for the benefit of our people. @trpresidency
The recent spark seems to be the death of a 22 year old woman while in the hands of the 'morality police.'
The context that spark sits in is of course much larger than that.
Expecting these protests to be the ones that end the Islamic Republic seems wildly premature to me, on account of the number and size of protests that the Iranian government has weathered before. But, you never know.
Protests that began on Saturday following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for wearing "unsuitable attire", have now spread to over 80 Iranian cities.
Women have played a prominent role in the demonstrations, waving and burning their veils, with some cutting their hair in public in a direct challenge to clerical leaders.
A human rights group said at least 31 civilians had been killed in the unrest, while state television put the death toll at 17.
In Tehran and some Kurdish cities, protesters torched police stations and vehicles on Thursday as public outrage over the death showed no signs of easing, with reports of security forces coming under attack.
There's also been restrictions on internet connectivity, to suppress communication, etc. So it's hard to get a sense of how widespread these protests are. We shall see one way or another, I suppose.
“I’m very angry and disappointed. I’m a simple man and only want to provide for my family and keep them safe and happy. The government has made that impossible. They have ruined everything, the economy, export, import, culture. I have a teenage boy and he wants to live freely, use social media, wear the clothes he wants to, but he can’t.
“There is no mobile network and internet in the streets now. I have seen police brutality against peaceful rallies for days. They use teargas and electric shockers, and they have killed people, young and old, men and women. The people want freedom of information, freedom to choose their destiny.
“The leaders of the Islamic Republic believe in using any force necessary to preserve their authority, they use Islam as a weapon. I work in advertising, it is my job to know my people and my society, and I believe the Iranian people don’t want [Iran’s supreme leader] Khamenei, the mullahs’ regime, or any sign of religious rules being forced upon their lives by government. Young people in Iran are trying every couple of years to send this message to government, peacefully, but they are jailed, tortured and killed.
“The older generations want change too, but they worry about their children and have seen previous uprisings fail. People of my country are tired. They are sick of the Islamic Republic, whether they are in Tehran, Kashan or Qom [Iran’s most conservative city].”
“I’m from Kurdistan, the same province Mahsa Amini was from. This uprising is definitely very different. The new generation is fearless, they fight back, bare-handedly, despite being at risk of losing their lives. Older generations are becoming empowered by the courage of the youngsters and this has brought some sort of unity between different ethnic groups.
“During the 2019 protests, there was no unity between Iranian Arabs, Turks, Kurds and so on. This time, people chant slogans such as ‘From Tabriz to Sanandaj, from Tehran to Mashhad.’
“People in my home province are Sunni, a marginalized community under the regime, but religious and culturally nostalgic. The elderly people in my social circle are happy about these protests. On Monday, everyone in my home town closed their shops, out of respect for this girl.
On the other hand, things like this.
(Laura Rozen is a DC-area reporter, has written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, and others.)
A contact in Tehran says the cellular network is off from 4pm till 12am. & the main streets are filled with IRGC & police.
He says based on his analysis & knowledge, he fears the real oppression & violence starts from tonight (IRGC Sarallah HQ started its real work,
(cont’d): …the most important security unit of Tehran). things are not out of hand, but the protestors are not stopping and giving up.
As well as many reports of violence against protesters. Some as simple as throwing protesters violently to the ground, all the way up to soldiers aiming and shooting rifles.
Protests that began on Saturday following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for wearing "unsuitable attire", have now spread to over 80 Iranian cities.
Women have played a prominent role in the demonstrations, waving and burning their veils, with some cutting their hair in public in a direct challenge to clerical leaders.
A human rights group said at least 31 civilians had been killed in the unrest, while state television put the death toll at 17.
In Tehran and some Kurdish cities, protesters torched police stations and vehicles on Thursday as public outrage over the death showed no signs of easing, with reports of security forces coming under attack.
There's also been restrictions on internet connectivity, to suppress communication, etc. So it's hard to get a sense of how widespread these protests are. We shall see one way or another, I suppose.
The exportation or reexportation, directly or indirectly, from the United States or by a U.S. person, wherever located, to Iran of fee-based or no-cost services incident to the exchange of communications over the Internet, such as instant
messaging, chat and email, social networking, sharing of photos and movies, web browsing, blogging, social media platforms, collaboration platforms, video conferencing, e-gaming, e- learning platforms, automated translation, web maps, and user authentication services, as well as cloud-based services in support of the foregoing or of any other transaction authorized or exempt under the ITSR.
It's not going to put a Starlink dish on every rooftop, but it should make it increasingly difficult for the government to maintain their stranglehold on information.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
Circumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Khamenei has been unusually absent in recent days amidst countrywide, anti-regime protests, which began on September 16. Rumors have circulated that Khamenei’s health has deteriorated significantly since early September.[1] CTP cannot verify these rumors about Khamenei’s health, and such reports should be treated with skepticism. There are indications that Khamenei is ill or incapacitated, however. Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. President Ebrahim Raisi—a prominent frontrunner to succeed Khamenei—is positioning himself to become the next supreme leader with support from senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The main article goes into more detail and its all still pretty circumstantial but if true, with both the protests going on and the IRGC’s recent attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan (amid, well, everything going on in Iraq too) I feel like things in Iran have the potential to get crazy in the next few weeks.
This afternoon together with @EmmanuelMacron we’ll meet again with 🇦🇿 President and 🇦🇲 Prime Minister on relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan & on advancing sustainable peace in the region.
Impossible to imagine, prior to Putin’s war, that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan would hold four-way peace talks with Macron and Michel
The Russian sphere is eroding
Henry Foy is an European Diplomatic Correspondent for Financial Times.
I...don't think that Armenia is going to get good terms from that, but given the alternatives, at least is good that talks are happening.
Or maybe they'll get better ones than Russia could ever have gotten them, depending on how Europe wants to handle this.
They probably will. However, "better" is incredibly subjective. Without Russia to mantain the Lachin corridor or to support Armenia, that's it, Azerbaijan won, this is a discussion of the terms of surrender and the dissolution of Artsakh. The better terms are that the Armenians that live there will be displaced instead of killed.
At the OPEC+ press conference, the Saudi Energy Minister refuses to answer Reuters questions because they wrote about the production cut using their own sources, and says he’ll never talk to them until they show respect to the proper source which is “the energy minister, on behalf of the Saudi government.”
I missed it yesterday, but I saw a lot of Saudi-UAE semi-official accounts just absolutely reveling in it, like it’s some huge own. The only acceptable sources are Saudi ministers, yeah ok good luck with that outside of Saudi Arabian media. I don’t really care about the production cut itself, but they’re such petulant assholes about not getting their way 100%.
There seems to be some actual momentum among Congressional Dems to finally cut off the Saudis. Which I'm sure won't last but would be extremely welcome.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
There seems to be some actual momentum among Congressional Dems to finally cut off the Saudis. Which I'm sure won't last but would be extremely welcome.
At the OPEC+ press conference, the Saudi Energy Minister refuses to answer Reuters questions because they wrote about the production cut using their own sources, and says he’ll never talk to them until they show respect to the proper source which is “the energy minister, on behalf of the Saudi government.”
I missed it yesterday, but I saw a lot of Saudi-UAE semi-official accounts just absolutely reveling in it, like it’s some huge own. The only acceptable sources are Saudi ministers, yeah ok good luck with that outside of Saudi Arabian media. I don’t really care about the production cut itself, but they’re such petulant assholes about not getting their way 100%.
It's worth bearing in mind that the Saudi's are royalty in a way that King Charles and co could only dream of. A lot of people have gotten away from what that REALLY means in the day and age of democracy and non-monarchy forms of authoritarianism
This is not a defense, they can go pound sand, but they come by their hubris "naturally".
Scores of jeering and whistling protesters hurled projectiles at security forces near a landmark roundabout in Hamedan city, west of Tehran, in footage verified by AFP.
Despite what online monitor NetBlocks called a "major disruption to internet traffic", protesters were also seen pouring onto the streets of the northwestern city of Ardabil, in videos shared on Twitter.
Shopkeepers went on strike in Amini's hometown Saqez, in Kurdistan province, and Mahabad in West Azerbaijan, said the 1500tasvir social media channel that monitors protests and police violations.
They were responding to an appeal for a huge turnout for protests on Saturday under the catchcry "The beginning of the end!"
"We have to be present in the squares, because the best VPN these days is the street," activists declared, referring to virtual private networks used to skirt internet restrictions.
"I want you to know that we stand with the citizens, the brave women of Iran," Joe Biden said late Friday.
"It stunned me what it awakened in Iran. It awakened something that I don't think will be quieted for a long, long time."
Iran "has to end the violence against its own citizens simply exercising their fundamental rights", the US leader added.
At least 108 people have been killed in the Amini protests, and at least 93 more have died in separate clashes in Zahedan, capital of the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, according to Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights.
A shaken Iranian political elite is struggling with whether to frame the protests shaking the country as primarily the product of a covert foreign intelligence conspiracy, or instead a dangerous warning that the values of the Islamic Revolution have lost sway over a new generation infected by a western controlled internet, analysts say.
The debate, in which there are many shades of grey, matters since it determines whether the response should be a security crackdown coupled with retribution against the outside forces of disruption or some kind of dialogue with the largely leaderless youth.
One reason for the uncertainty is that the regime believes these leaderless protests will peter out. They claim only 80,000 people have been out on the street, and that the protesters lack the critical mass to create a revolution or a leader overseas – an assessment shared in most western capitals, however much leaders sympathise with the demands for greater personal freedom for women. “There is no Mandela, no Aung San Suu Kyi”, said one western observer.
It is the Revolutionary Guards, above all, who refuse to see the protests as a turning point, but the work of the west and Saudi funded Iran International.
Broadly, the 83-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has turned his back on dialogue, dismissing the protests as “minor incidents”, and “scattered riots here and there”. His legitimacy and legacy assembled over three decades is not to be challenged. If there is a problem it was Amini’s death, which official inquiries claim was due to natural causes. Protesters say she was beaten to death.
Reformists within Iran, largely scattered to the four winds by successive election defeats and Donald Trump’s betrayal of the nuclear deal, claim the conservatives are reaping their own bitter harvest.
By systematically discrediting the electoral process, chaining the media and imprisoning dissidents, younger Iranians have had to look elsewhere for freedom. The managing director of the reformist Etemaad, Elias Hazrati, in an open letter on Thursday, said that “every single Iranian added to the audience of BBC and Iran International … was the fault of Iranian state censor”.
Posts
He’s a nationalist, populist, Islamist, technocrat who commonly allies with liberals, the kurds, and communists and is rabidly against the influence of both Iran and the US.
If that doesn’t make any sense at all to you then welcome to Iraq.
nationalism really sours any sense of religious unity; the Iraq/Iran War is also remembered still by a lot of the population
Before 2007 or so Al-Sadr was just your usual Shiite militia guy, but Al Sadr spent four years in exile in Iran during the Iraq war, apparently something went horribly wrong there because when he got back to Iraq he was strongly anti-Iranian.
A charitable read might be that he allies with liberals, communists, kurds, etc because he is a technocrat that wants a functional government instead of a nonfunctional government that vacillates between being a US and Iranian puppet. A more cynical read may be that he is using them as a cats paw to help get the Iranian backed factions out of power so he can take power himself.
Regardless he’s done this “Things aren’t going my way so I retire forever, oh the people demand it so I guess I’ll come back” thing before so its more likely a signal to inspire mass protests than anything serious.
It does make sense. The nationalist, not wanting to be ruled by foreign powers political movement has to be filled with something, no matter how good or bad they are at it.
https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-iraq-muqtada-al-sadr-7ca58a185c06d81131f74c5b7790cd1a/gallery/38f0306069ba4664bf51bd907a816de0
New rules make foreign visitors to West Bank declare romantic ties to Palestinians
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62821757
There are unconfirmed reports that Albania and/or the US is debating invoking Article 5.
My personal conclusion is that a true rapprochement was never truly an option. The Republicans and the IRGC are too convenient as enemies for each other because their bases are rabidly anti-brown people and anti-West, respectively, and thus they'd lose power without a bogeyman to scare their supporters with.
You aren't crazy.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
This stuff today may throw a wrench in the whole thing though.
Damn, it would suck if someone out there set a troubling precedent. I hate it when people do that.
Malicious cyber activity can have all these cascading effects? Sounds bad, we should definitely condemn whoever starts doing it.
Because Albania has been letting some anti-Iranian-regime people stay with them:
https://www.reuters.com/world/albania-cuts-iran-ties-orders-diplomats-go-after-cyber-attack-pm-says-2022-09-07/
Good question. Quick review is that Albania is a NATO member and has close relationships with Kosovo. So, besides general "NATO bad", the only other people that are their enemies are the Serbs, and nobody should care about their opinion.
However, the BBC article linked explains what this is about:
So, since Albania was picked as a location to shelter Iranian exiles in 2013, the Iranians got mad about it. That's literally it.
I think one thing that should be added here is that members of the organization have been trained to take part in Israel’s assassination program of Iranian nuclear scientists, which should not be an unprecedented thing for MEK members to do, after all they joined Saddam’s war effort on Iran. It could be argued that no one knows for sure if anyone from Albania has been part of any assassinations, but I’d wonder how an argument like that would go if it was American nuclear scientists being gunned down in the streets or car bombed.
Cuz that's the only thing I can figure otherwise I don't get the quibono of this
Albania is not going to give up the MEK because of stuff like this people just get ticked off and hold on to their beliefs harder Iran can't actually do any real damage to the MEK like this.
Escape from Afghanistan, Part I
"We're Destroying the IT. Have a Nice Sunday"
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/germany-s-escape-from-afghanistan-we-re-destroying-the-it-have-a-nice-sunday-a-743070b2-fefb-4d43-863a-96e8157165bc
Escape from Afghanistan, Part II
"Ground Attack! Ground Attack!"
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/escape-from-afghanistan-part-ii-the-dramatic-rescue-of-german-staff-and-local-hires-in-kabul-a-2d4ae4c4-ed42-4148-bd73-b22f80bd2470
Escape from Afghanistan, Part III
"Children Were Disposed of Like Garbage"
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-germans-dramatic-escape-from-afghanistan-in-2021-a-8fe92f07-c18a-4ebd-97c4-dd6761ba1d68
Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan:
Dimitar Bechev, opinion writer at Al-Jazeera:
Iran doesn't need Russia, though holding out for talks on the Iran deal makes sense if you are counting on Iran having a weaker hand. Syria however, is kinda screwed without it. So expect further "renegotiations" around.
So this map is the key to understanding Turkey’s goals.
Those red areas (both light and dark) are areas where the majority of the population speaks a turkic language very similar to Turkish. The solid are majority and the hashes are minority. These areas are basically Turkey’s shopping list for their foreign policy, with the other colored areas where similar but more distant Turkic people live being various stretch goals where Turkey would at least like to have influence.
So if you’re Turkey its pretty obvious that your main obstacles to getting what you want which is a big pan Turkic empire are Russia and Iran (and down the road probably China.). So yeah, Russia going to hell is a big deal, and is probably going to lead towards a Turkish play for power and major instability in the Caucasus and central asia.
The recent spark seems to be the death of a 22 year old woman while in the hands of the 'morality police.'
The context that spark sits in is of course much larger than that.
Expecting these protests to be the ones that end the Islamic Republic seems wildly premature to me, on account of the number and size of protests that the Iranian government has weathered before. But, you never know.
Protests over Mahsa Amini's death spread in Iran, authorities issue warning as death toll from clashes with police grows
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-22/iranian-protesters-set-fire-to-police-station-mahsa-amini-unrest/101466898
(Australian Broadcasting Company is a government funded media channel, this seems to be part of their news arm.)
There's also been restrictions on internet connectivity, to suppress communication, etc. So it's hard to get a sense of how widespread these protests are. We shall see one way or another, I suppose.
I wish good luck to everyone protesting in Iran.
On the one hand, articles with sentiments like this.
‘Something big is happening’: the Iranians risking everything to protest
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/24/something-big-is-happening-the-iranians-risking-everything-to-protest
(The Guardian is a newspaper.)
On the other hand, things like this.
(Laura Rozen is a DC-area reporter, has written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, and others.)
He says based on his analysis & knowledge, he fears the real oppression & violence starts from tonight (IRGC Sarallah HQ started its real work,
(cont’d): …the most important security unit of Tehran). things are not out of hand, but the protestors are not stopping and giving up.
As well as many reports of violence against protesters. Some as simple as throwing protesters violently to the ground, all the way up to soldiers aiming and shooting rifles.
Regarding internet connectivity, The Treasury Dept. has authorized ISPs to do business in Iran.
Specifically, the exemption allows:
It's not going to put a Starlink dish on every rooftop, but it should make it increasingly difficult for the government to maintain their stranglehold on information.
- John Stuart Mill
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-28
The main article goes into more detail and its all still pretty circumstantial but if true, with both the protests going on and the IRGC’s recent attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan (amid, well, everything going on in Iraq too) I feel like things in Iran have the potential to get crazy in the next few weeks.
I...don't think that Armenia is going to get good terms from that, but given the alternatives, at least is good that talks are happening.
Charles Michel, President of the European Council. He's the pale bald guy with a beard and glasses. Also has a Twitter:
Or maybe they'll get better ones than Russia could ever have gotten them, depending on how Europe wants to handle this.
They probably will. However, "better" is incredibly subjective. Without Russia to mantain the Lachin corridor or to support Armenia, that's it, Azerbaijan won, this is a discussion of the terms of surrender and the dissolution of Artsakh. The better terms are that the Armenians that live there will be displaced instead of killed.
I missed it yesterday, but I saw a lot of Saudi-UAE semi-official accounts just absolutely reveling in it, like it’s some huge own. The only acceptable sources are Saudi ministers, yeah ok good luck with that outside of Saudi Arabian media. I don’t really care about the production cut itself, but they’re such petulant assholes about not getting their way 100%.
Right before midterms? Hah, that's not happening.
It's worth bearing in mind that the Saudi's are royalty in a way that King Charles and co could only dream of. A lot of people have gotten away from what that REALLY means in the day and age of democracy and non-monarchy forms of authoritarianism
This is not a defense, they can go pound sand, but they come by their hubris "naturally".
Couple general articles.
Iranian activists defy crackdown with fresh nationwide protests
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20221015-iran-activists-call-for-further-mass-protests-as-biden-expresses-support
Iran’s youthful protests stoke uncertainty among political elite
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/irans-youthful-protests-stoke-uncertainty-among-political-elite