Yes the vote rules are the same here. I'm going to hold off on voting until more stuff happens in the living thread though. Johannen and DarkPrimus are still at the top of my list of Grecians.
EDIT: Apparently DarkPrimus was killed.
Yes, in defense of our nation, trying to strike down the foul Athan himself!
And, gods willing, Hades will permit me to deliver one of the killing blows to him, once we have discovered the face behind that mask.
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
It now seems rather likely that Tofu wasn't a spy after all, and that the spy was one of the rest of us.
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thorgotthere is special providencein the fall of a sparrowRegistered Userregular
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
It now seems rather likely that Tofu wasn't a spy after all, and that the spy was one of the rest of us.
No; that is simply a possibility.
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tuxkamenreally took this picture.Registered Userregular
edited March 2007
Now, my thoughts:
- If we don't vote, the spies will. We will simply have to synchronize our votes with the living.
- Ardor is most certainly in danger--though having him here will help us. Hopefully he gathers some understanding from the new mechanics and feeds the staff to someone he knows.
- Dynagrip seems suspicious to me. My opinion only, but you can just say we should all dearly love to have the smartest player in Phalla working with us.
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
It now seems rather likely that Tofu wasn't a spy after all, and that the spy was one of the rest of us.
No; that is simply a possibility.
We have 60 players. Cass was already dead, and Athan couldn't be killed, so that's 58. I assume Jeffe also picked from those not killed by the spies tonight, so that leaves 5 spies out of 53 people. The chance of none of the spies being picked out of 13 random picks is (48/53)*(47/52)*...*(36/41) = .229. So, there's a 22.9% chance that Tofu was the spy, and a 77.1% chance that the spy was somebody else.
- If we don't vote, the spies will. We will simply have to synchronize our votes with the living.
Can you run through the reasoning of less kills is better? I know, I know we don't want the game to end but (IIRC) typically vigilante kills (mathematically) are bad early, good late. We've just been transported into late in the game rather quickly but we're still operating blind with regards to what will happen next.
- Dynagrip seems suspicious to me. My opinion only, but you can just say we should all dearly love to have the smartest player in Phalla working with us.
Honestly I agree. He never did explain how he went from being one of the first to vote for Cass to being a defender of her.
Of all those who were killed, only one was struck down by a weapon not specified as belonging to the Greeks: Bunyip.
Bunyip sought glory, but rather found death at the point of a spear;
Noble Plutonium, saber in hand, fell to Earth as a Greek arrow
Pierced through his heart, a great gout of blood spilling forth from his chest;
Mighty Picardathon slew many, but Achaean fury would stay his blade.
I'm not accusing him or anything, I just find it odd, and I think it's worth noting.
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Kill this man now. Ardor notes he's playing in a spyish manner and his next post is an excuse followed by a post that will only cause controversy and confusion. Implying that we shouldn't attempt to kill spies? Die.
I still think the vote for tofu was too overwhelming for him to be guilty, and that the spy down here is someone else. I wish tofu had a better defense than what he's offered, though.
Hmm - Arrbeebee is a good player which makes it unlikely he'd say something like that if he were a spy. It's probably reasonable for the breathers to consider him, but I'm not convinced enough to vigilante him from here.
At this point I'm uncertain if aligning our kills with the living is a good idea or not. I need to think and possibly do some math. Of course, I have no basis for predictive maths since I've got no fucking clue how many kills the baddies get.
SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
There's no reason for us to attack the same target as the fleshies. The more kills the village collectively gets, the better off we'll be, especially if the spies continue to have a high kill rate.
Well then, why don't we wait a while to see who they end up voting for, before we make any decisions.
Momentum. We need a few viable candidates ready and hashed out by the time we hit 9 EDT. That gives us an hour for those of us who can be around then to push somebody who the village isn't into the lead while safeguarding us from assassin manipulation.
Smasher, do you have some math to back that claim up?
SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
We should line up at least two potential targets in the meantime, but yeah, I'm going to wait until there's some clear consensus amongst the fleshies before I vote for anyone.
I still think the vote for tofu was too overwhelming for him to be guilty, and that the spy down here is someone else. I wish tofu had a better defense than what he's offered, though.
I don't know what else to offer I'm afraid. I voted the way I was most suspicious of and the rest was just joking around. The accusations against me were so paper thin that I can't offer up any more explanation than that.
Either way I'm done defending myself, I'm going to play like the hoplite I am. You all can either trust me or not, it's not like you can stake me again :P.
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SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
Well then, why don't we wait a while to see who they end up voting for, before we make any decisions.
Momentum. We need a few viable candidates ready and hashed out by the time we hit 9 EDT. That gives us an hour for those of us who can be around then to push somebody who the village isn't into the lead while safeguarding us from assassin manipulation.
Smasher, do you have some math to back that claim up?
I wrote up a simulator for a generic version of phalla back when we were doing the New York and Sicily games. Having a vigilante as opposed to not (in a game with one village kill) increased the village's chance of victory by more than 10% all by himself. Granted this game is significantly more complicated than a generic game, but I see no reason why the general principle would change.
Putting it in more concrete terms, think about kill ratios. Let's suppose for the sake of argument that the game will last for ten more days. We have the living village staking every night, and five one time vigilantes. Over ten days that averages to 1.5 kills a night. The spies meanwhile will probably get somewhere between 2 and 5 kills a night; let's say 3. We don't have any control over those 3 kills, and the spies are very unlikely to target one of their own except in desperation. That means without the dead vote, the village has 15 chances to hit 4 spies (we'll obviously have to take care of Athan). Our situation right now is actually pretty good, so the chances of just those kills getting all the spies actually aren't too bad.
However, if we also vote then we give the village a bunch of extra kills. Because we're killing more people overall the game will end faster; this takes away kills from both the living village and the spies, but we make up all of the difference, and so the village overall gets to kill a larger percentage of people. Since only village kills will result in dead spies, this is a good thing.
Well, the way things are going among the living, it seems Johannen, precisionk, or RBB are going to bite it. Should we pick the one who receives the least votes?
See Smasher, I knew you had the math skills I just wanted to make sure you were going off some actual analysis and not guessing. For me at least probability is rife with areas of cognitive dissonance.
Well, the way things are going among the living, it seems Johannen, precisionk, or RBB are going to bite it. Should we pick the one who receives the least votes?
Honestly I suspect that we have better information than the living so sublimating our own decision making process to theirs is all kinds of fucking stupid. Add in the fact that the five most assassin threatening people are down here and I think we make our own calls.
Now by all means we should keep up on the "living" world and consider what's brought up there (like why we should kill RBB) but abdicating our role to "playing nice" is silly.
- If we don't vote, the spies will. We will simply have to synchronize our votes with the living.
Can you run through the reasoning of less kills is better? I know, I know we don't want the game to end but (IIRC) typically vigilante kills (mathematically) are bad early, good late. We've just been transported into late in the game rather quickly but we're still operating blind with regards to what will happen next.
I only meant that we could not sit on our hands, because one vote = death.
I have taken a nap and a step back and have been going over the thread quite a bit. I would like others to look over the numerous posts of Senor Fish and tell me what they think. I think he is a spy playing a very great game. He has hopped on Johannen's bandwagon a number of times (even though Ardor and I are pretty sure he is innocent, as sure as we can be without actually seering), which in itself is not a crime. However, I would also bring up that of the numerous people in the failed Primus network, he is the most suspicious of the ones Cassandra did not out, and the most likely to be Cassandra's wing man. He actually never condemned Cassandra until after her 'admission' and furthermore has tried to implicate both Primus and Johannen at one time or another. I think he's laying it heavy with the humor to appeal to our pathos, and just switching it up enough between votes to appear to be an innocent hoplite in the wind. I don't know anymore, I really think I may have messed up with Tofu, but Senor Fish never jumped on that bandwagon like he might have if he was a spy and Tofu was innocent. On the otherhand, if he knew Tofu was innocent he might have been sticking with Johannen knowing that he would be building even more credability with a track record and by not voting on the mis-accused hoplite. According to ElJeffe the spies picked 5 of the people who perished and didn't know more were gonna die. I think Senor Fish didn't vote for Tofu because he thought six people were gonna die and they were all gonna be hoplites. He wanted to be able to point out with a clear finger that he did not vote for Tofu, and any spy would have. However, after the narration, he certainly pounces on the idea that Tofu was the spy, even though logic and statistics really state that was most likely not the case. I think he is covering for the real spy who got randomnly selected, one he didn't know was gonna be selected, by backtracking and condemning Tofu when its even more clear that Tofu was innocent.
The more I think about it, the more I think he really is a very clever spy. What do you guys think?
The only person who hasn't been named from my network yet is Manning'sEquation.
Eri, feel free to look over his posts as well, if you think there was more than one spy selected. I still maintain that the odds of getting more than one spy in there is ridiculously low. :P
The only person who hasn't been named from my network yet is Manning'sEquation.
Eri, feel free to look over his posts as well, if you think there was more than one spy selected. I still maintain that the odds of getting more than one spy in there is ridiculously low. :P
I think its fairly safe and probably wise to share some of the intelligence that I am working off of. Only one of us is going back, and chances are that is Ardor himself in two days.
I'll take some more time to respond to folks since they took the time to both play the game and send me their thoughts.
To be honest, I'm looking at finding people who aren't very vocal in the thread, mostly due to the trend 90% of the past monsters have gone through - playing conservatively.
Folks like redx don't post much and it tells me they are more likely to be a villager who wants to stay in the game, but not put a lot of effort into it because they would rather have been chosen to be something special or don't have anyone to work with, whether they wanted to go contact someone else or not.
People like Saburbia seem to do a good job of giving some fair points, sound advice, and they stay just suspicious enough to the overall village to survive a few nights without being put under the knife from the monsters. These people strike me as either good allies, or monsters playing a pretty good game of not being a bandwagon target.
Vocal folks like Johannen or Squasha are virtually all going to be normal villagers because they want to enjoy the game by arguing points, being deductive or playing detective. These types make the game fun for everyone in my opinion, because they keep the game moving. It's also a good strategy to keep themselves alive. They are more likely to die to the village than to the assassins.
The helpful people like spawnbroker et al are very helpful to everyone, including the monsters, for keeping things straight. I am sure the mod of the game also appreciates it because it helps them keep track of what's going on. Unfortunately, it tends to get them killed quickly because they are more helpful to villagers than monsters.
I believe Cass isn't dumb enough to go into some idea to create a group like that without an accomplice. It's better to risk 2 of their numbers so at least one person can be vocal and another can just goad the masses into following suit. Having a group of 8 people protect each other while going after people Cass knows aren't spies, she essentially has control of 8 voted right there. With enough decent reasoning behind it (which others will do for her), they start to get people outside the group to move. I'm not sure if combing through the remaining individuals of that group will be worth the time at this point though.
I bolded the relevent part, and I concur with Ardor on this point. Cass had a wingman. It wasn't Johannen it wasn't Primus. Ardor has directed the survivors to forget it, and has made a move against ArrBeeBee. I think we have the power and time to make a relevent stab at this. I think Senor Fish also approached people in the network I created to kill Eaglelaser*, or at least I received the implication from one of them, the question being asked of me was whether Senor was in the network I had created or not. These people received PMs from Senor Fish after the Primus network was exposed. I think Senor was continuing the work he and Cassandra had failed at.
*I leveraged my street cred on people who voted for Cassandra before the bandwagon took off, and others who I was reasonably sure were not spies, to create a network that would slam Eaglelaser should he reveal that he knows who the spies are. The PM I sent Eaglelaser pretty much puts him in a box where if he was a spy he would reveal the knowledge and my PM, while if he wasn't he would confer with Ardor. It was my way of ensuring that my line of reasoning continued after I died.
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SmasherStarting to get dizzyRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
I believe roughly nine people other than yourself were approached to join the network. If we presume you were in fact innocent, that leaves 9 chances for a spy to infiltrate. I ran a simulation to see how often a spy would be contacted based on pure chance, and out of 10,000 trials got the following results:
This of course doesn't take into account the possibility that one of the inviters was a spy, which would presumably increase the chance of a second one getting in if they so desired.
All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if there were another spy in there, but I don't consider having been in the network to make it any more or less likely that a given person is a spy.
Just caught up on THIS thread since I went to bed... I haven't looked at the main thread since last night's narration, and I'll be damned if I know how I'm even going to track all of this.
Wait, I'm already in Hades, so I guess I'm damned anyway...
Anyway... I don't recall who made which point, so I'm going to respond genericly to those that struck me.
First, the numbers -- someone suggested the numbers indicated that the spies' kills per night depend on how many of them are living. (7+6+5=18, which is the number killed by the Greeks last night) I think that number is pure coincidence. I think that perhaps the 5 might be a function of number of living spies, but not as THE number (unless Athan doesn't count), since there were 6 living spies when the orders went in last night. I think the remaining 13 is a number chosen to bring the total dead up to 20 (1/3 of the population) so that Hades would have a high enough initial population to work properly.
Second, incompetence of the seers? wtf?
Third, we really don't know right now if tofu was a spy or if it is one of the 13 random people. We don't even know WHICH of us were chosen by the spies and which are random. That is something to keep in mind.
The more I think about it, the more I think he really is a very clever spy. What do you guys think?
Senor Fish is suspicious to me for one reason only, on Sunday he was the most active person in the thread by far but once Monday came around and people started actually thinking about who to kill his post frequency dropped considerably. I'm not sure thats enough to vote for him to die.
Of LCE, Senor Fish, and PrecisionK my suspicion list is:
1)PrecisionK
2)LCE
3)Senor Fish
That's enough for me to vote for Senor Fish, if that's the plan. I think we should kill precisionk at the earliest opportunity, though. And are we still waiting to see what LCE will do?
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ElJeffeNot actually a mod.Roaming the streets, waving his gun around.Moderator, ClubPAmod
edited March 2007
Updated abilities post with a list of current Hades residents.
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I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
Now... I haven't done any statistical analysis, but I suspect that with a total of 60 (61 with ElJeffe) posters, the middle 40 ought to represent the bulk of a bell curve.
I suggest we look at each of these people who are still in the realm of the living and try to determine whether it is reasonable for each to be on the "edge" as it were.
Here's my stab at it:
High Counts
Squashua -- posted vote counts, spent a lot of time defending himself against his own stupidity, seems to just like to hear himself talk. I really have to experience with him outside of this game so I don't know if that's normal for him or not.
Senor Fish -- we've already started to discuss him as a possibility... he was pretty active in the beginning, but it seemed mostly with jokes rather than serious game commentary. Again, I have no experience with him outside of this game, so I don't know if that's his standard personality or not.
Dynagrip -- Wow, I was surprised to see him at #3 because I didn't get the feeling of him being around that much. Lots of empty posts, very little real contribution, which is unusual for him.
Johannen -- I think Johannen has every excuse in the world to have a high post count, so really being in the top 5 doesn't say much about him. I've made my opinion of him clear in the main thread -- He's either too dumb to pull off the spy role or a genius at making us THINK he's too dumb. Unless someone else has some experience with him coming across as a genius in other threads, I lean toward too dumb.
GrimmyTOA -- I haven't got a good read on him... most of his posts seem to be well thought out and constructive, but he just could be a "helpful" spy
visiblehowl -- lots of posts defending himself against a bandwagon, plus vehemently arguing that Ardor's plan was less efficient than his own. How did he manage to get into the top 10 without even checking in before late Monday?
Rygar -- in addition to defending himself against an initial pre-game bandwagon, most of his posts seem to be serious contributions
Low Counts
Jamerson -- seems to have pretty much just popped in to vote, I've got a vague impression that he is usually more active than this, but I'm not sure on that.
MechMantis -- Contributions limited to two votes plus a comment on Sunday that first night bandwagons are silly. At best, he's not contributing anything to the village. However, I haven't got any experience with him ouside of this game, so I don't know how seriously to take his non-participation.
redx -- I'm trying to remember how he normally plays... I think he's normally not very vocal, so I'd probably be more concerned if he weren't near the bottom of the list
Malkor -- I haven't got a read on him at all
jackisreal -- he's either really not paying attention or he's a spy trying to make it look like he's not -- at about 11:30 on day THREE he made a comment that "there are only 3 spies" after significant amounts of discussion had just been going on over the true number of spies
XenoZergie -- I haven't got a read on him at all
AcidSerra -- seems to be trying to get some outside networking going -- I got a PM on the first day asking for observations, to which I replied with a couple of points, but nothing that really would have given away any serious suspicions I had (if I'd had any, which I really didn't at the time). Oddly enough, he opened the PM indicating that he remembered me from visiblehowl's game, which I didn't play.
Serpent -- has really been under my radar... does he usually contribute more than this?
Cantide -- No impression, he might just not have that much to say
So I caught up with this thread but I really, really don't want to have to stay in touch with two threads.
So far now that you look at it, the cover Senor Fish is using is pretty good, lots of jokes and funny. However also being a vote spreadsheet guy is also a pretty good cover. We know two people who are still alive and kept voting records, MrBlarney and the Squashawa guy. Since Squash was one of the suscipous ones before last night, and very vocal, I'm leaning more towards MrBlarney.
Of course it doesn't help that we don't know who the spies targeted and which ones were random. Also that the spies might not have had enough kills to get rid of the vote recorder guys and the people they did not want against them up there.
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thorgotthere is special providencein the fall of a sparrowRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
Wow, Dynagrip has that many posts? I would have only guessed that he would have had around 20 posts in the thread. He is definitely not being his usual self.
Wow, Dynagrip has that many posts? I would have only guessed that he would have had around 20 posts in the thread. He is definitely not being his usual self.
But like if we kill him than he will be down here with us!
jackisreal -- he's either really not paying attention or he's a spy trying to make it look like he's not -- at about 11:30 on day THREE he made a comment that "there are only 3 spies" after significant amounts of discussion had just been going on over the true number of spies
In the Red Scare game, he was pretty active both in the thread and in PMs; I was a communist mole in the defender group he was a member of, so I had a lot of contact with him. He was a good guy that time.
This is why I think precisionk is the best course of action. Right now, a lot of the justification for the suspiciousness of other people relies on the possible thought processes of the spy. The sparing of Squashua, Johannen, et al in the Day 3 Massacre could have been for any number of reasons. But I honestly think the case against precisionk (and possibly RBB if we decide to go that route) stands on its own. I'm not saying the others aren't spies, but maybe we should wait for one more day of kills to see what becomes of them.
jackisreal -- he's either really not paying attention or he's a spy trying to make it look like he's not -- at about 11:30 on day THREE he made a comment that "there are only 3 spies" after significant amounts of discussion had just been going on over the true number of spies
In the Red Scare game, he was pretty active both in the thread and in PMs; I was a communist mole in the defender group he was a member of, so I had a lot of contact with him. He was a good guy that time.
Serpent -- has really been under my radar... does he usually contribute more than this?
Now that you mention it, he's playing this game very similar to how he played the Red Scare game, where he was a communist.
Yea after Nerissa's post I realized he has barely, if at all, made any contributions at all. Plus I have a grudge against him from that game, so he will be my safe vote for now incase I'm not around when there is a better lead.
With this many people playing, it's really easy for someone to be all but inactive and not get onto anyone's radar for it. Unless you are specifically looking for inactives, attention naturally focuses on people who are actually involved.
There's no way I can keep up with two threads to the extent that I want, so I've pretty much given up recording anything for now. I'm just going to read and try to digest things as they go, and try to form a more gestalt opinion rather than an analytical one.
I've listed some suspicions about RBB and why I'm going to vote for him, and now I've got one more reason to vote for him. We dreamed about him because we thought he'd make a great ally. However, he turned out to make a great staking target for today as we were told he was 'all kinds of spy'.
I've listed some suspicions about RBB and why I'm going to vote for him, and now I've got one more reason to vote for him. We dreamed about him because we thought he'd make a great ally. However, he turned out to make a great staking target for today as we were told he was 'all kinds of spy'.
Let's vote him to Hades and call it a day.
So we have two choices...
1) target him in case he's Athan
2) let the village get him, knowing that if he DOES turn out to be Athan, we can get him tomorrow
Posts
Yes, in defense of our nation, trying to strike down the foul Athan himself!
And, gods willing, Hades will permit me to deliver one of the killing blows to him, once we have discovered the face behind that mask.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Cameo.
It now seems rather likely that Tofu wasn't a spy after all, and that the spy was one of the rest of us.
No; that is simply a possibility.
- If we don't vote, the spies will. We will simply have to synchronize our votes with the living.
- Ardor is most certainly in danger--though having him here will help us. Hopefully he gathers some understanding from the new mechanics and feeds the staff to someone he knows.
- Dynagrip seems suspicious to me. My opinion only, but you can just say we should all dearly love to have the smartest player in Phalla working with us.
Games: Ad Astra Per Phalla | Choose Your Own Phalla
We have 60 players. Cass was already dead, and Athan couldn't be killed, so that's 58. I assume Jeffe also picked from those not killed by the spies tonight, so that leaves 5 spies out of 53 people. The chance of none of the spies being picked out of 13 random picks is (48/53)*(47/52)*...*(36/41) = .229. So, there's a 22.9% chance that Tofu was the spy, and a 77.1% chance that the spy was somebody else.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Can you run through the reasoning of less kills is better? I know, I know we don't want the game to end but (IIRC) typically vigilante kills (mathematically) are bad early, good late. We've just been transported into late in the game rather quickly but we're still operating blind with regards to what will happen next.
Honestly I agree. He never did explain how he went from being one of the first to vote for Cass to being a defender of her.
I'm not accusing him or anything, I just find it odd, and I think it's worth noting.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Kill this man now. Ardor notes he's playing in a spyish manner and his next post is an excuse followed by a post that will only cause controversy and confusion. Implying that we shouldn't attempt to kill spies? Die.
I vote AarBeeBee for death.
Edit: Emboldening my statement.
I still think the vote for tofu was too overwhelming for him to be guilty, and that the spy down here is someone else. I wish tofu had a better defense than what he's offered, though.
New post from RBB, still screaming spy to me.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Momentum. We need a few viable candidates ready and hashed out by the time we hit 9 EDT. That gives us an hour for those of us who can be around then to push somebody who the village isn't into the lead while safeguarding us from assassin manipulation.
Smasher, do you have some math to back that claim up?
I don't know what else to offer I'm afraid. I voted the way I was most suspicious of and the rest was just joking around. The accusations against me were so paper thin that I can't offer up any more explanation than that.
Either way I'm done defending myself, I'm going to play like the hoplite I am. You all can either trust me or not, it's not like you can stake me again :P.
I wrote up a simulator for a generic version of phalla back when we were doing the New York and Sicily games. Having a vigilante as opposed to not (in a game with one village kill) increased the village's chance of victory by more than 10% all by himself. Granted this game is significantly more complicated than a generic game, but I see no reason why the general principle would change.
Putting it in more concrete terms, think about kill ratios. Let's suppose for the sake of argument that the game will last for ten more days. We have the living village staking every night, and five one time vigilantes. Over ten days that averages to 1.5 kills a night. The spies meanwhile will probably get somewhere between 2 and 5 kills a night; let's say 3. We don't have any control over those 3 kills, and the spies are very unlikely to target one of their own except in desperation. That means without the dead vote, the village has 15 chances to hit 4 spies (we'll obviously have to take care of Athan). Our situation right now is actually pretty good, so the chances of just those kills getting all the spies actually aren't too bad.
However, if we also vote then we give the village a bunch of extra kills. Because we're killing more people overall the game will end faster; this takes away kills from both the living village and the spies, but we make up all of the difference, and so the village overall gets to kill a larger percentage of people. Since only village kills will result in dead spies, this is a good thing.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Honestly I suspect that we have better information than the living so sublimating our own decision making process to theirs is all kinds of fucking stupid. Add in the fact that the five most assassin threatening people are down here and I think we make our own calls.
Now by all means we should keep up on the "living" world and consider what's brought up there (like why we should kill RBB) but abdicating our role to "playing nice" is silly.
I only meant that we could not sit on our hands, because one vote = death.
Games: Ad Astra Per Phalla | Choose Your Own Phalla
The more I think about it, the more I think he really is a very clever spy. What do you guys think?
Eri, feel free to look over his posts as well, if you think there was more than one spy selected. I still maintain that the odds of getting more than one spy in there is ridiculously low. :P
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
I think its fairly safe and probably wise to share some of the intelligence that I am working off of. Only one of us is going back, and chances are that is Ardor himself in two days.
I bolded the relevent part, and I concur with Ardor on this point. Cass had a wingman. It wasn't Johannen it wasn't Primus. Ardor has directed the survivors to forget it, and has made a move against ArrBeeBee. I think we have the power and time to make a relevent stab at this. I think Senor Fish also approached people in the network I created to kill Eaglelaser*, or at least I received the implication from one of them, the question being asked of me was whether Senor was in the network I had created or not. These people received PMs from Senor Fish after the Primus network was exposed. I think Senor was continuing the work he and Cassandra had failed at.
*I leveraged my street cred on people who voted for Cassandra before the bandwagon took off, and others who I was reasonably sure were not spies, to create a network that would slam Eaglelaser should he reveal that he knows who the spies are. The PM I sent Eaglelaser pretty much puts him in a box where if he was a spy he would reveal the knowledge and my PM, while if he wasn't he would confer with Ardor. It was my way of ensuring that my line of reasoning continued after I died.
Spies picked:
0: 2993
1: 4143
2: 2231
3: 536
4: 91
5: 6 (ouch!)
6: 0
7: 0
This of course doesn't take into account the possibility that one of the inviters was a spy, which would presumably increase the chance of a second one getting in if they so desired.
All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if there were another spy in there, but I don't consider having been in the network to make it any more or less likely that a given person is a spy.
Wait, I'm already in Hades, so I guess I'm damned anyway...
Anyway... I don't recall who made which point, so I'm going to respond genericly to those that struck me.
First, the numbers -- someone suggested the numbers indicated that the spies' kills per night depend on how many of them are living. (7+6+5=18, which is the number killed by the Greeks last night) I think that number is pure coincidence. I think that perhaps the 5 might be a function of number of living spies, but not as THE number (unless Athan doesn't count), since there were 6 living spies when the orders went in last night. I think the remaining 13 is a number chosen to bring the total dead up to 20 (1/3 of the population) so that Hades would have a high enough initial population to work properly.
Second, incompetence of the seers? wtf?
Third, we really don't know right now if tofu was a spy or if it is one of the 13 random people. We don't even know WHICH of us were chosen by the spies and which are random. That is something to keep in mind.
Senor Fish is suspicious to me for one reason only, on Sunday he was the most active person in the thread by far but once Monday came around and people started actually thinking about who to kill his post frequency dropped considerably. I'm not sure thats enough to vote for him to die.
Of LCE, Senor Fish, and PrecisionK my suspicion list is:
1)PrecisionK
2)LCE
3)Senor Fish
Squashua - 138
Senor Fish - 83
Dynagrip - 78
Johannen - 74
*FunkyWaltDogg - 73
GrimmyTOA - 72
visiblehowl - 65
*Nerissa - 64
*Last Son - 64
Rygar - 61
*Picardathon - 2
Jamerson - 2
MechMantis - 3
redx - 4
Malkor - 5
jackisreal-7
XenoZergie - 7
AcidSerra - 7
Serpent - 9
Cantide - 10
Now... I haven't done any statistical analysis, but I suspect that with a total of 60 (61 with ElJeffe) posters, the middle 40 ought to represent the bulk of a bell curve.
I suggest we look at each of these people who are still in the realm of the living and try to determine whether it is reasonable for each to be on the "edge" as it were.
Here's my stab at it:
High Counts
Squashua -- posted vote counts, spent a lot of time defending himself against his own stupidity, seems to just like to hear himself talk. I really have to experience with him outside of this game so I don't know if that's normal for him or not.
Senor Fish -- we've already started to discuss him as a possibility... he was pretty active in the beginning, but it seemed mostly with jokes rather than serious game commentary. Again, I have no experience with him outside of this game, so I don't know if that's his standard personality or not.
Dynagrip -- Wow, I was surprised to see him at #3 because I didn't get the feeling of him being around that much. Lots of empty posts, very little real contribution, which is unusual for him.
Johannen -- I think Johannen has every excuse in the world to have a high post count, so really being in the top 5 doesn't say much about him. I've made my opinion of him clear in the main thread -- He's either too dumb to pull off the spy role or a genius at making us THINK he's too dumb. Unless someone else has some experience with him coming across as a genius in other threads, I lean toward too dumb.
GrimmyTOA -- I haven't got a good read on him... most of his posts seem to be well thought out and constructive, but he just could be a "helpful" spy
visiblehowl -- lots of posts defending himself against a bandwagon, plus vehemently arguing that Ardor's plan was less efficient than his own. How did he manage to get into the top 10 without even checking in before late Monday?
Rygar -- in addition to defending himself against an initial pre-game bandwagon, most of his posts seem to be serious contributions
Low Counts
Jamerson -- seems to have pretty much just popped in to vote, I've got a vague impression that he is usually more active than this, but I'm not sure on that.
MechMantis -- Contributions limited to two votes plus a comment on Sunday that first night bandwagons are silly. At best, he's not contributing anything to the village. However, I haven't got any experience with him ouside of this game, so I don't know how seriously to take his non-participation.
redx -- I'm trying to remember how he normally plays... I think he's normally not very vocal, so I'd probably be more concerned if he weren't near the bottom of the list
Malkor -- I haven't got a read on him at all
jackisreal -- he's either really not paying attention or he's a spy trying to make it look like he's not -- at about 11:30 on day THREE he made a comment that "there are only 3 spies" after significant amounts of discussion had just been going on over the true number of spies
XenoZergie -- I haven't got a read on him at all
AcidSerra -- seems to be trying to get some outside networking going -- I got a PM on the first day asking for observations, to which I replied with a couple of points, but nothing that really would have given away any serious suspicions I had (if I'd had any, which I really didn't at the time). Oddly enough, he opened the PM indicating that he remembered me from visiblehowl's game, which I didn't play.
Serpent -- has really been under my radar... does he usually contribute more than this?
Cantide -- No impression, he might just not have that much to say
So far now that you look at it, the cover Senor Fish is using is pretty good, lots of jokes and funny. However also being a vote spreadsheet guy is also a pretty good cover. We know two people who are still alive and kept voting records, MrBlarney and the Squashawa guy. Since Squash was one of the suscipous ones before last night, and very vocal, I'm leaning more towards MrBlarney.
Of course it doesn't help that we don't know who the spies targeted and which ones were random. Also that the spies might not have had enough kills to get rid of the vote recorder guys and the people they did not want against them up there.
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But like if we kill him than he will be down here with us!
3DS: 2852-6809-9411
In the Red Scare game, he was pretty active both in the thread and in PMs; I was a communist mole in the defender group he was a member of, so I had a lot of contact with him. He was a good guy that time.
Now that you mention it, he's playing this game very similar to how he played the Red Scare game, where he was a communist.
Yea after Nerissa's post I realized he has barely, if at all, made any contributions at all. Plus I have a grudge against him from that game, so he will be my safe vote for now incase I'm not around when there is a better lead.
I !vote for Serpent.
3DS: 2852-6809-9411
There's no way I can keep up with two threads to the extent that I want, so I've pretty much given up recording anything for now. I'm just going to read and try to digest things as they go, and try to form a more gestalt opinion rather than an analytical one.
So we have two choices...
1) target him in case he's Athan
2) let the village get him, knowing that if he DOES turn out to be Athan, we can get him tomorrow