Also, it's worth noting that Kay was in room 3, and Infidel was in room 2. It would make sense that the bodyguards would want to cluster in the center rooms, because that makes it easier for them to reach any particular room quickly.
I'd suggest we regard anyone who started in room 2 or 3 with some suspicion.
The main problem with this is similar to being suspicious of people who started out in the room 1. Attacks on Dr. Lucky which do not exceed the number of remaining bodyguards automatically fail, since there were probably about 10 or more bodyguards left last night, I don't think they'd be very worried.
I'm just surprised that he only moved 1 space.... or maybe he actually moved 13 spaces... we'll never know.
What if they intentionally did not move him so they could stay close to him?
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TehSlothHit Or MissI Guess They Never Miss, HuhRegistered Userregular
Also, it's worth noting that Kay was in room 3, and Infidel was in room 2. It would make sense that the bodyguards would want to cluster in the center rooms, because that makes it easier for them to reach any particular room quickly.
I'd suggest we regard anyone who started in room 2 or 3 with some suspicion.
The main problem with this is similar to being suspicious of people who started out in the room 1. Attacks on Dr. Lucky which do not exceed the number of remaining bodyguards automatically fail, since there were probably about 10 or more bodyguards left last night, I don't think they'd be very worried.
I'm just surprised that he only moved 1 space.... or maybe he actually moved 13 spaces... we'll never know.
What if they intentionally did not move him so they could stay close to him?
I'd say that until we drop more than 4 of them (my estimate), they aren't going to be very concerned with staying near him since it doesn't matter where they are until we could realistically get a higher attack then they have numbers. Once we see another one or two bodyguard drop, then I really think they're going to start flocking to him. Of course, if they were in the middle, there'd be no reason for them to play movement cards on him since everyone benefits from extra cards. I think everyone might've overestimated the number that would be played last night and got a little gun shy, that or they're extremely rare. In the meantime though, I don't know what to think. I thought the SkyCaptain wagon was a pretty safe bet for where to find solid non-mafia, but the Kay thing kinda blows that outta the water.
Room 11 (Music Room):
B:L - STAYED
Bremen - STAYED
Daius - STAYED
Ebfan - STAYED
El Skid - From ROOM 12
Gumpy - From ROOM 12
Rawkking Goodguy - From ROOM 12
ShadowThomas - STAYED
Varcayn - STAYED
Room 12 (Conservatory):
Arivia - STAYED
Things of Note - Kay was in Room 3, Infidel was in Room 2
Boogedyboo and Egos have both moved to Room 2, everybody else there started there
The majority of the population in Room 2 are minimal posters, including new arrival boogedyboo
Is there possibly another Bodyguard in there with Dr. Lucky now? Or with Infidel gone and the Bodyguards down 3 members, is this the first free shot someone with a 5+ weapon would have on Dr Lucky?
RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
edited October 2009
Okay, further points of interest in the movement chart:
Almost everybody moved down a room, with a few exceptions:
1) Egos went from 1 to 2 - Following Dr Lucky presumably
2) Fatal3RROR moved from 3 to 4 - ???
3) Hippie moved from 8 to 9 - ???
4) Oats moved from 9 to 10 - ???
I can't really see the benefits of those three movements at the moment
[strike]Pigeonking used a movement card
He shot from Room 6 to Room 4 which requires two move. Why Room 4? He could've moved to Room 2 and benefited from the extra Dr Lucky Draw. He could've saved the Movement Card and ended up in Room 3 if he thought a move would be played on Dr Lucky. But he used up a card to get in position in Room 4 of all places. Why?[/strike]
Shalmelo moved from 6 to 5, which put him in a corner instead of the more open Room 3. Kind of a weird move.
And lastly: Gumpy, Rawkking, and El Skid vacated Room 12 for 11 as a group. Is Skid involved in Gumpy's network? What about all those people in Room 11 who didn't move to catch Lucky in Room 2? Are they planning something along the upper track? I Don't know.
Things we seem to have in play: Vote kill (duh)
Day 1: SkyCaptain - Michael Carty (Bodyguard) was asked to leave.
Day 2: Zandracon - Joseph Hutchens (Conspirator) was voted out the mansion.
[strike]Vig/serial killer that causes players to withdraw on their own[/strike] People that just didn't want to play anymore (clarification by MrB next page)
Day 1: Athenor - Alejandra Garr (Conspirator) withdrew from the party.
Day 2: samurai6966 - Zoila Barish (Conspirator) made a tactical withdrawl.
Two bodyguard attacks that throw people out
Day 1: Burnage - Preston Mcquire (Conspirator) was escorted off the premises. Lady Eri - Loren Panganiban (Conspirator) was led out the front door.
Day 2: Nocturne - Vivian Peres (Conspirator) was forced to go home early. Dunadan019 - Dominic Oatley (Conspirator) unwillingly found the exit doors.
Weapon attacks
Day 1: (no cards playable)
Day 2: Infidel - Clinton Frady (Bodyguard) got smashed by an ottoman. Zellpher - Roslyn Redrick (Conspirator) died in anguish when she could not comprehend the meaning of modern art.
Another vig? Or is this a weapon (eviction notice?):
Day 2: Kay - Marcia Kunz (Bodyguard) was specially noted for eviction.
And I would like to state the obvious: the results are given in alphabetical order by name, not kill order.
edit: Changed the withdraw section; not a vig or serial killer, at least that doesn't give evidence for one
Things we seem to have in play: Vote kill (duh)
Day 1: SkyCaptain - Michael Carty (Bodyguard) was asked to leave.
Day 2: Zandracon - Joseph Hutchens (Conspirator) was voted out the mansion.
Vig/serial killer that causes players to withdraw on their own
Day 1: Athenor - Alejandra Garr (Conspirator) withdrew from the party.
Day 2: samurai6966 - Zoila Barish (Conspirator) made a tactical withdrawl.
Two bodyguard attacks that throw people out
Day 1: Burnage - Preston Mcquire (Conspirator) was escorted off the premises. Lady Eri - Loren Panganiban (Conspirator) was led out the front door.
Day 2: Nocturne - Vivian Peres (Conspirator) was forced to go home early. Dunadan019 - Dominic Oatley (Conspirator) unwillingly found the exit doors.
Weapon attacks
Day 1: (no cards playable)
Day 2: Infidel - Clinton Frady (Bodyguard) got smashed by an ottoman. Zellpher - Roslyn Redrick (Conspirator) died in anguish when she could not comprehend the meaning of modern art.
Another vig? Or is this a weapon (eviction notice?):
Day 2: Kay - Marcia Kunz (Bodyguard) was specially noted for eviction.
And I would like to state the obvious: the results are given in alphabetical order by name, not kill order.
This is some good analysis here Darian. I think the grouping you have here sounds about spot on. I am particularly curious about the withdrawal and the eviction deaths. The fact that the withdrawal death took place on both Day 1 and Day 2, I would say it's safe to say that it is somebody's ability and not a card. The opposite can be said about the eviction, which may be a card. Hopefully things will clear up on this front after tonight's narration.
This brings up an interesting question: Are there village specials in this game or do the cards take the place of the village specials? I am inclined to think that the latter is true, which would mean the withdrawal would be some kind of Serial Killer. However, I have no evidence to support this either way.
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
The same thing jumped out at me too when I was going over ecc's spreadsheets from yesterday. Unless the Bodyguards were trying to make a crazy play here, I'm going to have to guess that Rawkking is a good guy from this, as there would have been no reason for Kay to try to push a close vote onto a fellow bodyguard. Then again Kay is very... sneaky. I guess I wouldn't actually say that Rawkking is fully cleared, but I think it would be best to turn our attention elsewhere.
I think a good exercise might be to take a look at the people who voted for Zandy from the point where it was a very close vote until the end of the day when the votes really started getting piled on. I really didn't like the Zandracon vote to begin with, but I certainly think the way the vote went from a close one to a runaway in the matter of 20 to 30 posts was super sketchy.
My vote for now is for Fatal3RR0R as he was right in the middle of this piling on with no reasoning:
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
That's an interesting possibility. So we've got two scenarios here:
1) Rawkking Goodguy is a conspirator, the bodyguards didn't have a preference in yesterday's vote, and we can expect them to be found in both bandwagons.
2) Rawkking Goodguy is a bodyguard, Kay jumped on the bandwagon to build a sound vote history in the case that RG dies, but in the meantime other bodyguards most likely jumped on the Zandwagon later.
I think the second case is much less likely, but there you have it.
If Rawkking is a good guy, as is implied by Kay's vote on him, why would the bodyguards have had any reason to pile onto Zandracon? I think that's a bit of a red herring.
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
It doesn't exonerate him but I think another Rawkking goodguy wagon is probably a waste of time.
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
It doesn't exonerate him but I think another Rawkking goodguy wagon is probably a waste of time.
I agree. If anyone has additional reasons to suspect him, they can always try to shank him.
How much can be learned from the voting records if both bandwagons were (most likely) on conspirators? Should we focus more on actual post content and movement?
Kistra on
Animal Crossing: City Folk Lissa in Filmore 3179-9580-0076
How much can be learned from the voting records if both bandwagons were (most likely) on conspirators? Should we focus more on actual post content and movement?
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
It doesn't exonerate him but I think another Rawkking goodguy wagon is probably a waste of time.
I agree. If anyone has additional reasons to suspect him, they can always try to shank him.
I agree as well, I was just saying that we should not implicitly trust him based on the vote of a single bodyguard.
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adventfallsWhy would you wish to know?Registered Userregular
Vig/serial killer that causes players to withdraw on their own
Day 1: Athenor - Alejandra Garr (Conspirator) withdrew from the party.
Day 2: samurai6966 - Zoila Barish (Conspirator) made a tactical withdrawl.
Hmm, I was under the impression that those were for failing to meet activity requirements, but looking at it again, Samurai seems to have posted enough to meet those last night.
Vig/serial killer that causes players to withdraw on their own
Day 1: Athenor - Alejandra Garr (Conspirator) withdrew from the party.
Day 2: samurai6966 - Zoila Barish (Conspirator) made a tactical withdrawl.
Hmm, I was under the impression that those were for failing to meet activity requirements, but looking at it again, Samurai seems to have posted enough to meet those last night.
Were these withdrawals automatic for inactivity, made at the player's request, or forced by the action of another player?
Unless Dunadan is hosting, then it's likely to end up getting you insulted.
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Dogbone33I bleed Red and Gold!State of ConfusionRegistered Userregular
edited October 2009
I think Samurai's was from request. He was saying in the thread for the slasher mini that he thought he'd have to. He is going to be gone all weekend apparently.
Dogbone33 on
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Toxic ToysAre you really taking my advice?Really?Registered Userregular
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
It doesn't exonerate him but I think another Rawkking goodguy wagon is probably a waste of time.
I agree. If anyone has additional reasons to suspect him, they can always try to shank him.
I agree as well, I was just saying that we should not implicitly trust him based on the vote of a single bodyguard.
Didn't Kay vote for SkyCaptian also? I wouldn't use his voting record to clear Rawkking at all.
Toxic Toys on
3DS code: 2938-6074-2306, Nintendo Network ID: ToxicToys, PSN: zutto
Posts
Kay is also not hard to read. I was able to read him.
And that means BIIIIIIGGGG letters.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Well, I guess I'm convinced that you're not [strike]evil[/strike] mafia.... this time.
twitch.tv/tehsloth
What if they intentionally did not move him so they could stay close to him?
I'd say that until we drop more than 4 of them (my estimate), they aren't going to be very concerned with staying near him since it doesn't matter where they are until we could realistically get a higher attack then they have numbers. Once we see another one or two bodyguard drop, then I really think they're going to start flocking to him. Of course, if they were in the middle, there'd be no reason for them to play movement cards on him since everyone benefits from extra cards. I think everyone might've overestimated the number that would be played last night and got a little gun shy, that or they're extremely rare. In the meantime though, I don't know what to think. I thought the SkyCaptain wagon was a pretty safe bet for where to find solid non-mafia, but the Kay thing kinda blows that outta the water.
twitch.tv/tehsloth
Room 1 (Foyer):
Edcrab - STAYED
garroad_ran - STAYED
oaklore - STAYED
Room 2 (Lounge):
Dr. Lucky - From ROOM 1
boogedyboo - From ROOM 3
Cantide - STAYED
Darian - STAYED
Delmain - STAYED
eeccccoo tthhee ddoollpphhiinn - STAYED
Egos - From ROOM 1
kime - STAYED
LoserForHireX - STAYED
Plutonium - STAYED
Ringo - STAYED
Toxic Toys - STAYED
Room 3 (Dining Room):
Buzz Buzz - STAYED
Dogbone33 - STAYED
FunkyWaltDogg - From ROOM 4
Houn - From ROOM 6
Kistra - From ROOM 6
Typhus733 - STAYED
Room 4 (Kitchen):
Fatal3RR0R - From ROOM 3
iamtheaznman - STAYED
Obbi - STAYED
uean - From ROOM 5
Room 5 (Garage):
Cleonicus - STAYED
shalmelo - From ROOM 6
Room 6 (Study):
Ardor - STAYED
simonwolf - From ROOM 7
pigeonking - STAYED IN ROOM 6
Room 7 (Library):
dunedainjedi - STAYED
lonelyahava - STAYED
Romantic Undead - STAYED
Seriously - From ROOM 8
TehSloth - From ROOM 8
Room 8 (Patio):
crimsonoyote - STAYED
Jobastion - STAYED
Room 9 (Billiard Room):
adventfalls - STAYED
Hippie - From ROOM 8
jdarksun - STAYED
Tiphareth - STAYED
vagrant_winds - STAYED
warban - STAYED
Room 10 (Trophy Room):
Eipnoom - STAYED
Oats - From ROOM 9
Room 11 (Music Room):
B:L - STAYED
Bremen - STAYED
Daius - STAYED
Ebfan - STAYED
El Skid - From ROOM 12
Gumpy - From ROOM 12
Rawkking Goodguy - From ROOM 12
ShadowThomas - STAYED
Varcayn - STAYED
Room 12 (Conservatory):
Arivia - STAYED
Things of Note - Kay was in Room 3, Infidel was in Room 2
Boogedyboo and Egos have both moved to Room 2, everybody else there started there
The majority of the population in Room 2 are minimal posters, including new arrival boogedyboo
Is there possibly another Bodyguard in there with Dr. Lucky now? Or with Infidel gone and the Bodyguards down 3 members, is this the first free shot someone with a 5+ weapon would have on Dr Lucky?
Almost everybody moved down a room, with a few exceptions:
1) Egos went from 1 to 2 - Following Dr Lucky presumably
2) Fatal3RROR moved from 3 to 4 - ???
3) Hippie moved from 8 to 9 - ???
4) Oats moved from 9 to 10 - ???
I can't really see the benefits of those three movements at the moment
[strike]Pigeonking used a movement card
He shot from Room 6 to Room 4 which requires two move. Why Room 4? He could've moved to Room 2 and benefited from the extra Dr Lucky Draw. He could've saved the Movement Card and ended up in Room 3 if he thought a move would be played on Dr Lucky. But he used up a card to get in position in Room 4 of all places. Why?[/strike]
Shalmelo moved from 6 to 5, which put him in a corner instead of the more open Room 3. Kind of a weird move.
And lastly: Gumpy, Rawkking, and El Skid vacated Room 12 for 11 as a group. Is Skid involved in Gumpy's network? What about all those people in Room 11 who didn't move to catch Lucky in Room 2? Are they planning something along the upper track? I Don't know.
Who is it? We'll make sure they never do it again. We have connections.
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
ya'll're just jealous and scared.
ooooOOooooooOOOOOOOooooooo
Infidel, do you enjoy the delicious justice
Not getting into the narration.
PSN - sumowot
That would dictate we look at the Zandy wagon closely, yes?
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Actually I prefer not getting into the narration to being killed.
Yeah, looking especially at the people piling on later once rawkking got close is a task well worth doing.
Vote kill (duh)
Day 1: SkyCaptain - Michael Carty (Bodyguard) was asked to leave.
Day 2: Zandracon - Joseph Hutchens (Conspirator) was voted out the mansion.
[strike]Vig/serial killer that causes players to withdraw on their own[/strike]
People that just didn't want to play anymore (clarification by MrB next page)
Day 1: Athenor - Alejandra Garr (Conspirator) withdrew from the party.
Day 2: samurai6966 - Zoila Barish (Conspirator) made a tactical withdrawl.
Two bodyguard attacks that throw people out
Day 1: Burnage - Preston Mcquire (Conspirator) was escorted off the premises.
Lady Eri - Loren Panganiban (Conspirator) was led out the front door.
Day 2: Nocturne - Vivian Peres (Conspirator) was forced to go home early.
Dunadan019 - Dominic Oatley (Conspirator) unwillingly found the exit doors.
Weapon attacks
Day 1: (no cards playable)
Day 2: Infidel - Clinton Frady (Bodyguard) got smashed by an ottoman.
Zellpher - Roslyn Redrick (Conspirator) died in anguish when she could not comprehend the meaning of modern art.
Another vig? Or is this a weapon (eviction notice?):
Day 2: Kay - Marcia Kunz (Bodyguard) was specially noted for eviction.
And I would like to state the obvious: the results are given in alphabetical order by name, not kill order.
edit: Changed the withdraw section; not a vig or serial killer, at least that doesn't give evidence for one
This is some good analysis here Darian. I think the grouping you have here sounds about spot on. I am particularly curious about the withdrawal and the eviction deaths. The fact that the withdrawal death took place on both Day 1 and Day 2, I would say it's safe to say that it is somebody's ability and not a card. The opposite can be said about the eviction, which may be a card. Hopefully things will clear up on this front after tonight's narration.
This brings up an interesting question: Are there village specials in this game or do the cards take the place of the village specials? I am inclined to think that the latter is true, which would mean the withdrawal would be some kind of Serial Killer. However, I have no evidence to support this either way.
Kill Dr. Lucky, Day 2
The very first thing that jumps out at me is that Kay voted for Rawkking Goodguy when the vote was quite close.
Indeed that is correct. But I don't think that exonerates Rawkking Goodguy either, as it was still rather early in the day (4:10ish PDT), and there were quite a few votes for Zandracon at the very end of the day.
The same thing jumped out at me too when I was going over ecc's spreadsheets from yesterday. Unless the Bodyguards were trying to make a crazy play here, I'm going to have to guess that Rawkking is a good guy from this, as there would have been no reason for Kay to try to push a close vote onto a fellow bodyguard. Then again Kay is very... sneaky. I guess I wouldn't actually say that Rawkking is fully cleared, but I think it would be best to turn our attention elsewhere.
I think a good exercise might be to take a look at the people who voted for Zandy from the point where it was a very close vote until the end of the day when the votes really started getting piled on. I really didn't like the Zandracon vote to begin with, but I certainly think the way the vote went from a close one to a runaway in the matter of 20 to 30 posts was super sketchy.
My vote for now is for Fatal3RR0R as he was right in the middle of this piling on with no reasoning:
Seems like what a bodyguard would say to me.
That's an interesting possibility. So we've got two scenarios here:
1) Rawkking Goodguy is a conspirator, the bodyguards didn't have a preference in yesterday's vote, and we can expect them to be found in both bandwagons.
2) Rawkking Goodguy is a bodyguard, Kay jumped on the bandwagon to build a sound vote history in the case that RG dies, but in the meantime other bodyguards most likely jumped on the Zandwagon later.
I think the second case is much less likely, but there you have it.
edit: What FWD said, basically.
It doesn't exonerate him but I think another Rawkking goodguy wagon is probably a waste of time.
I agree. If anyone has additional reasons to suspect him, they can always try to shank him.
I'm just being a dick.
Pretty much.
So was Infidel. Hmmmm, must be vet bodyguard code. :P
The fatal3RR0R vote is interesting. It came at the end of a block of throwaway votes. Note I removed Zandracon self defense vote from this block.
Daius - Zandracon 1019
El Skid - Zandracon 1021
iamtheaznman - Zandracon 1025
ShadowThomas - Zandracon 1026
Fatal3RR0R - Zandracon 1032
Buzz Buzz Zandracon 1043
Fatal(and to a lesser extent BuzzBuzz) could have been trying to toss a vote in under the radar.
I'm still getting the magician vibe from yesterday and I can't shake it.
I will be keeping up with this when I can so hopefully he has a chance to come in with some reasoning.
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I agree as well, I was just saying that we should not implicitly trust him based on the vote of a single bodyguard.
Hmm, I was under the impression that those were for failing to meet activity requirements, but looking at it again, Samurai seems to have posted enough to meet those last night.
Were these withdrawals automatic for inactivity, made at the player's request, or forced by the action of another player?
Can't hurt to ask.
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Didn't Kay vote for SkyCaptian also? I wouldn't use his voting record to clear Rawkking at all.