and you're all doing the thing where you line item every aspect of one side and only consider the initial purchase cost of the other side
robot employees require maintenance
in a dusty warehouse, probably constant maintenance
Dang, I have relevant experience here. We bought a waterjet table a couple years ago. It was $120k. It's incredible, you tell it piece shape, size, number, whatever, it cuts a 16x24 sheet of product into amazing designs. Push button, get cut pastries.
Until someone hits the USB port where you upload programs and snaps it off. Custom piece. $85. 3 days downtime.
Or one of the stepper motors goes bad. Also custom. $750. 4 days from Spain.
The water filter has to be replaced monthly. $60.
Someone dropped a stack of pans on one of the cutting surfaces, it's a removable metal frame with very thin blades crisscrossing. $600.
The nozzles for it are $40 apiece. They last about 10 hours.
At 1000 hours, the pump requires a full rebuild. $10,000 in parts and labor to have someone do that.
sounds like you should fire the human workforce at your plant because it's costing you stupid amounts of money to fix their fuckups
Which is sort of funny, because I work in an industry that has... regressed? Progressed? Baking went from being entirely done by hand, to almost completely mechanized, and now the "artisan" baking industry has had a massive resurgence.
I'm not even exactly sure what you all were debating. It seems to be the specific cost within a relatively narrow range for a piece of machinery to be cost effective for replacing an employee.
So 40k for replacing a single worker, does the robot do more than one person's work? Does it replace two employees on different shifts?
What are the variables here?
How many shifts is the warehouse open for? Could it be open 24/7?
Seems like if you're doing a 1:1 comparison that a 12/hr worker just barely eeks out above a 50k/yr robot worker. Barely. And only 1. If you start asking the worker to work 10 hour days, not only are you now paying more than the robot, but you're also fucking over your worker because they will not perform as well, so there's some diminishing returns.
What are my rules for this theorycraft, someone help me.
not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
add in payroll taxes as well i suppose, maybe another $5k
but we're not approaching $50k/employee
Oooo employee costing.
So we'll take the $12 an hour base.
Then we have to add in fringe (benefits and taxes). About 30% for a US Company that only gives the minimal amount of fucks to keep employees.
Then we have overhead, roughly 20%.
Then we have G&A, roughly 7% for a manufacturing company.
12*1.30*1.20*1.07
Burdened labor rate is $20.03
20.03*1944= ~39k per person.
Chanus, robots may not make sense to replace employees in your particular shop right now.
But the shops where it does make sense are going to be positioned to price you out of business.
nah
it doesn't make sense in my entire industry because we aren't a 24 hour service
because the customers we serve are not open 24 hours
I don't know your vertical, but if no one is serving 24 hours, sounds like a market space ripe for expanding into.
life isn't actually a y-combinator startup pitch, you're not a business guru, and everybody would notice low-hanging fruit if it was really that low hanging
if it were profitable for an industry to go 24 hours it would have long before our robot overlords appeared
Just make robots to fix robots and also have a robot hr department and robot payroll.
I don't know how it is in the US but here payroll handling is increasingly tipping towards automation, mostly as a consequence of HMRC's insistence on ever more frequent and comprehensive data
At present companies are no longer permitted to perform manual payroll calculations, they must be carried out using software that interfaces with HMRC systems
I'm wondering how long it'll be before they just say "fuck it", implement their own payroll processing package that requires nothing but low skilled data entry and mandate its use
(Payroll software is awful)
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
also speaking of if any of you are looking for a career change and want to make some bank in like 5 years, but also will only have a job until self-driving cars are ubiquitous, the average age for an autobody repair person is like 52 years old and increasing
also speaking of if any of you are looking for a career change and want to make some bank in like 5 years, but also will only have a job until self-driving cars are ubiquitous, the average age for an autobody repair person is like 52 years old and increasing
For real I wish I had stuck with auto repair like I originally wanted to do.
I wanted to just go to trade school and become a mechanic. Parents pushed for college.
Just make robots to fix robots and also have a robot hr department and robot payroll.
I don't know how it is in the US but here payroll handling is increasingly tipping towards automation, mostly as a consequence of HMRC's insistence on ever more frequent and comprehensive data
At present companies are no longer permitted to perform manual payroll calculations, they must be carried out using software that interfaces with HMRC systems
I'm wondering how long it'll be before they just say "fuck it", implement their own payroll processing package that requires nothing but low skilled data entry and mandate its use
(Payroll software is awful)
Payroll software is legitimately the biggest pile of unusable bullshit I've ever seen in my life, and that's saying something
So 40k for replacing a single worker, does the robot do more than one person's work? Does it replace two employees on different shifts?
What are the variables here?
How many shifts is the warehouse open for? Could it be open 24/7?
Seems like if you're doing a 1:1 comparison that a 12/hr worker just barely eeks out above a 50k/yr robot worker. Barely. And only 1. If you start asking the worker to work 10 hour days, not only are you now paying more than the robot, but you're also fucking over your worker because they will not perform as well, so there's some diminishing returns.
What are my rules for this theorycraft, someone help me.
i don't think a robot could realistically pull orders in a warehouse significantly faster than a human
not just like some john henry shit but like logistically
their main advantage is being able to work longer, not faster
So 40k for replacing a single worker, does the robot do more than one person's work? Does it replace two employees on different shifts?
What are the variables here?
How many shifts is the warehouse open for? Could it be open 24/7?
Seems like if you're doing a 1:1 comparison that a 12/hr worker just barely eeks out above a 50k/yr robot worker. Barely. And only 1. If you start asking the worker to work 10 hour days, not only are you now paying more than the robot, but you're also fucking over your worker because they will not perform as well, so there's some diminishing returns.
What are my rules for this theorycraft, someone help me.
i don't think a robot could realistically pull orders in a warehouse significantly faster than a human
not just like some john henry shit but like logistically
their main advantage is being able to work longer, not faster
WHAT ARE THE VARIABLES AND RULES CHANUS
not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
I mean for automation and the end of our work force where is @Donkey Kong to tell us we are all screwed?
Factory jobs are dead. Gone. Workers are being replaced by robots even overseas. The robots are in factories already, they're cheaper than humans and they do a better job. Every year they take more and more jobs. It's just a matter of time before every manufacturing plant is run by a skeleton screw that pushes a button and calls techs when the red light flashes. I give it 5 years for tech, 15 years for everything.
Logististics is gone. Baggage handling, warehousing, bin picking, packing, and shipping are headed all automated. I give it a decade at best.
Commercial driving is gone. Automation has a proof of concept and the gains in efficiency and safety are massive. I give it 15 years before manned delivery trucks are a rarity.
The jobs are going away and I hope society is ready because it's already happening.
Thousands of hot, local singles are waiting to play at bubbulon.com.
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amateurhourOne day I'll be professionalhourThe woods somewhere in TennesseeRegistered Userregular
Also we're never going to get to a point where a robot passes the turing test when it comes to customer service.
I mean of all of us, who doesn't just shout "OPERATOR" angrily into a phone when you call for support until some stooge answers?
Chanus, robots may not make sense to replace employees in your particular shop right now.
But the shops where it does make sense are going to be positioned to price you out of business.
nah
it doesn't make sense in my entire industry because we aren't a 24 hour service
because the customers we serve are not open 24 hours
I don't know your vertical, but if no one is serving 24 hours, sounds like a market space ripe for expanding into.
life isn't actually a y-combinator startup pitch, you're not a business guru, and everybody would notice low-hanging fruit if it was really that low hanging
if it were profitable for an industry to go 24 hours it would have long before our robot overlords appeared
Don't most states have labor laws requiring extra pay for 2nd and 3rd shift?
If so, I could see cases existing on the margin, where 24 hours isn't worth it for human labor but worth it for robots
Theoretically
Please consider the environment before printing this post.
I mean for automation and the end of our work force where is "Donkey Kong" to tell us we are all screwed?
Factory jobs are dead. Gone. Workers are being replaced by robots even overseas. The robots are in factories already, they're cheaper than humans and they do a better job. Every year they take more and more jobs. It's just a matter of time before every manufacturing plant is run by a skeleton screw that pushes a button and calls techs when the red light flashes. I give it 5 years for tech, 15 years for everything.
Logististics is gone. Baggage handling, warehousing, bin picking, packing, and shipping are headed all automated. I give it a decade at best.
Commercial driving is gone. Automation has a proof of concept and the gains in efficiency and safety are massive. I give it 15 years before manned delivery trucks are a rarity.
The jobs are going away and I hope society is ready because it's already happening.
it really is just a matter of cost at this point and once that price point tips, we're p fucked
Chanus, robots may not make sense to replace employees in your particular shop right now.
But the shops where it does make sense are going to be positioned to price you out of business.
nah
it doesn't make sense in my entire industry because we aren't a 24 hour service
because the customers we serve are not open 24 hours
I don't know your vertical, but if no one is serving 24 hours, sounds like a market space ripe for expanding into.
life isn't actually a y-combinator startup pitch, you're not a business guru, and everybody would notice low-hanging fruit if it was really that low hanging
if it were profitable for an industry to go 24 hours it would have long before our robot overlords appeared
Pfft, that's what people thought about the transportation industry until Uber was invented. :smugface:
also speaking of if any of you are looking for a career change and want to make some bank in like 5 years, but also will only have a job until self-driving cars are ubiquitous, the average age for an autobody repair person is like 52 years old and increasing
Its not self driving cars that kills this. If they are internal combustion engines they still need the same amount of mechanic work.
Its electric cars that kill this because electric engines are simple as shit compared to internal combustion engines.
i've figured it outttt yessss i'm going to save the country
poo
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
it's actually amazing how quickly the automotive repair industry has changed in just the last 5-10 years
used to be guys would repair the damaged part, or take an imperfect replacement and fix that
now GEICO and other insurers are requiring these 1-day or same-day turnaround times for jobs, and so all parts have to be pristine and basically in paint and snap-on condition
we throw away and recycle so much material that just 5 years ago would have been used
I feel the NRA is falling down on the job, they haven't submitted any kind of outline for a path to man-portable EMP weapons, to protect our jobs from the coming robot scourge.
I mean for automation and the end of our work force where is @Donkey Kong to tell us we are all screwed?
Factory jobs are dead. Gone. Workers are being replaced by robots even overseas. The robots are in factories already, they're cheaper than humans and they do a better job. Every year they take more and more jobs. It's just a matter of time before every manufacturing plant is run by a skeleton screw that pushes a button and calls techs when the red light flashes. I give it 5 years for tech, 15 years for everything.
Logististics is gone. Baggage handling, warehousing, bin picking, packing, and shipping are headed all automated. I give it a decade at best.
Commercial driving is gone. Automation has a proof of concept and the gains in efficiency and safety are massive. I give it 15 years before manned delivery trucks are a rarity.
The jobs are going away and I hope society is ready because it's already happening.
I mean, society obviously isn't ready
The Orange Man is a good indicator of that
I think the only real question now is whether people get comfortable with expansive socialism or every automation engineer and software developer ends up ripped limb from limb French Revolution style
One interesting side effect is that the comprehensibility of payroll calculations is no longer a strong influence on the design of the tax system, since they're not being carried out by harassed payroll clerks liable to get them wrong a significant proportion of the time.
But it does make them tricky to audit after the fact.
Posts
I know not this reference
I'd love it if you took a look at my art and my PATREON!
Which is sort of funny, because I work in an industry that has... regressed? Progressed? Baking went from being entirely done by hand, to almost completely mechanized, and now the "artisan" baking industry has had a massive resurgence.
well, yes
what other kind of argument have we ever had here
What are the variables here?
How many shifts is the warehouse open for? Could it be open 24/7?
Seems like if you're doing a 1:1 comparison that a 12/hr worker just barely eeks out above a 50k/yr robot worker. Barely. And only 1. If you start asking the worker to work 10 hour days, not only are you now paying more than the robot, but you're also fucking over your worker because they will not perform as well, so there's some diminishing returns.
What are my rules for this theorycraft, someone help me.
i said i did didn't i
Is she giving birth to Goyim?
Is she giving birth to Gillian Anderson?
yeah holy crap
I'd love it if you took a look at my art and my PATREON!
I do that every year.
Goal 1: Take a class in something
Goal 2: Take another class
Goal 1: Generate Goals
Report: Goal Achieved.
oh hm that does make some sense
I'd love it if you took a look at my art and my PATREON!
if it were profitable for an industry to go 24 hours it would have long before our robot overlords appeared
I don't know how it is in the US but here payroll handling is increasingly tipping towards automation, mostly as a consequence of HMRC's insistence on ever more frequent and comprehensive data
At present companies are no longer permitted to perform manual payroll calculations, they must be carried out using software that interfaces with HMRC systems
I'm wondering how long it'll be before they just say "fuck it", implement their own payroll processing package that requires nothing but low skilled data entry and mandate its use
(Payroll software is awful)
please review this 45 slide deck on our pillars and masteries and competencies and align to your leadership opportunity areas
For real I wish I had stuck with auto repair like I originally wanted to do.
I wanted to just go to trade school and become a mechanic. Parents pushed for college.
I'd be so goddamn rich right now.
Payroll software is legitimately the biggest pile of unusable bullshit I've ever seen in my life, and that's saying something
I hate this.
So you have two choices.
Make up generic goals now.
Take specific things you were doing already and will be doing and write those as goals since you will finish them anyway.
i don't think a robot could realistically pull orders in a warehouse significantly faster than a human
not just like some john henry shit but like logistically
their main advantage is being able to work longer, not faster
Asked and answered
WHAT ARE THE VARIABLES AND RULES CHANUS
Amherst lol
I mean I am a fan of hippies but sometimes it's a bit much
Factory jobs are dead. Gone. Workers are being replaced by robots even overseas. The robots are in factories already, they're cheaper than humans and they do a better job. Every year they take more and more jobs. It's just a matter of time before every manufacturing plant is run by a skeleton screw that pushes a button and calls techs when the red light flashes. I give it 5 years for tech, 15 years for everything.
Logististics is gone. Baggage handling, warehousing, bin picking, packing, and shipping are headed all automated. I give it a decade at best.
Commercial driving is gone. Automation has a proof of concept and the gains in efficiency and safety are massive. I give it 15 years before manned delivery trucks are a rarity.
The jobs are going away and I hope society is ready because it's already happening.
I mean of all of us, who doesn't just shout "OPERATOR" angrily into a phone when you call for support until some stooge answers?
the latter is usually the best move
these things are frequently stealth winnowing tools, and if you didn't make your goals you'll be on probation
Don't most states have labor laws requiring extra pay for 2nd and 3rd shift?
If so, I could see cases existing on the margin, where 24 hours isn't worth it for human labor but worth it for robots
Theoretically
I'm actually in Northampton rn but
yeah 9-9
oh god they just left they were in here for like 20 minutes
I'd love it if you took a look at my art and my PATREON!
it really is just a matter of cost at this point and once that price point tips, we're p fucked
it'll be great when they storm in and pillage the warehouse because what do you have to lose at that point
Pfft, that's what people thought about the transportation industry until Uber was invented. :smugface:
Its not self driving cars that kills this. If they are internal combustion engines they still need the same amount of mechanic work.
Its electric cars that kill this because electric engines are simple as shit compared to internal combustion engines.
Our OB wasn't even a divine caster. Some sort of skill - based class or something.
i've figured it outttt yessss i'm going to save the country
used to be guys would repair the damaged part, or take an imperfect replacement and fix that
now GEICO and other insurers are requiring these 1-day or same-day turnaround times for jobs, and so all parts have to be pristine and basically in paint and snap-on condition
we throw away and recycle so much material that just 5 years ago would have been used
I mean, society obviously isn't ready
The Orange Man is a good indicator of that
I think the only real question now is whether people get comfortable with expansive socialism or every automation engineer and software developer ends up ripped limb from limb French Revolution style
But it does make them tricky to audit after the fact.