Texas reported 1,801 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday — the biggest single-day jump in cases since the pandemic began.
A growing outbreak in the Texas Panhandle is a big reason for the surge in cases. More than 700 new cases were reported out of Amarillo on Saturday with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott warning those numbers will continue to climb as the state increases testing in that hot spot.
It's unclear if this is because of an increase in testing highlighting cases that would be previously missed. Many are blaming it on the meatpacking plants opening.
Didn't they reopen on the 1st? Which, considering that was a Friday, this is basically the start of two weeks later.
A local hospital did some predictive modeling, but more interesting is their analysis of behavioral changes over the course of the pandemic.
Dallas county is Dallas, which is a relatively (for Texas) liberal area
Tarrant is Fort Worth, which runs much more conservative (it's the only metro area in the state the votes red)
Denton and Collin are suburban areas.
This one is also interesting. I'm not entirely sure how they're defining "percent effectiveness," but it suggests that we're right on the edge of either holding it down or losing our grip completely.
This is part of the reason opening up in late april/early may was nuts... most models at that point seemed to indicate that even a month of additional lockdown/stay at home would probably have made a huge difference.
People think of this as being like graded on an A to F scale, but it’s really more like pass/fail - either you get rid of the virus aside from small localized outbreaks or you don’t and 50-60% of the population get the virus eventually.
I mean that graph is kind of grading on a scale, but on this scale there’s more than one “fail” grade
Edit: you can simply convert that graphs into a “net additional deaths” metric, by 1-month, 3-months, 6-months, 1-year, all intervals too
Captain Inertia on
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
edited May 2020
It's pass with flying colors (eradicate via quarantine), pass by the skin of your teeth (70% of the population gets it over the course of a year or two, but hospitals don't get overwhelmed), or fail with flagrant neglect (70% of the population gets it at the same time, the death rate rockets into the sky due to an overwhelmed hospital system).
Small trial, only 8 patients, but, it’s a well run first phase clinical trial
Moderna vaccine generates a neutralizing antibody response in 8/8 patients (Prevents replication of the virus in cell samples), similar levels to virus survivors in the community.
Mice with immune systems modified to be similar to humans dosed with the same vaccine did not see viral replication in the lungs when exposed to live virus with similar antibody levels.
No signs of any safety concerns yet.
Edit - as clarity. The trial involved 45 patients, none of whom showed safety effects and all of whom generate an immune response. 8 patients were selected for more detailed follow on, and their antibody levels were shown to be neutralizing in cell samples on the bench.
That's awesome, RNA vaccines are cutting edge and more funding into them is great. I do wish the circumstances and timelines were different but... beggars can't be choosers. Does anyone know how complicated the manufacturing is? Some kind of industrial scale gene sequencing equipment?
I mean, beggars can't be choosers and even a vaccine which you had to like grow in eagle eggs would be more than worth it, however these mRNA vaccines are VASTLY easier to make and prepare, and can be done on a vastly quicker timescale than anything else (other than maybe those ones that they think you might be able to make in plants) because I believe you can just make the vaccine in GM yeast and other simple single celled organisms. In addition, one thing that I do know is that you need vastly less material than for other vaccines because the mRNA actually instructs your own body to make the protein sections which the immune system will respond to.
Effectively the mRNA makes you into a vaccine factory, its vastly easier to scale if it works. Conventional vaccines need like, eggs to grow in. Even if we had one right now it would take 12 months to have enough for a big fraction of the population but the mRNA vaccines might be ready at the hundreds of millions of dose level within months if one works.
The Norwegian government released updated estimates on covid lethality. The current estimate is that between 0.58% and 0.73% of Norwegians have had covid (down from an estimate of 1%). There are no large (or barely any at all) groups of undiscovered asymptomatic carriers. This has implications for mortality rate.
The new numbers impliy an estimated lethality of 0.7% (up from an estimate of 0.3%; more than a doubling) and a hospitalization rate of 3.9%. (Lethality assumes sufficient hospital capacity.)
(They also estimate that R0 has increased from about 0.5 to just shy of 1, but this has less importance for the rest of the world.)
It's pass with flying colors (eradicate via quarantine), pass by the skin of your teeth (70% of the population gets it over the course of a year or two, but hospitals don't get overwhelmed), or fail with flagrant neglect (70% of the population gets it at the same time, the death rate rockets into the sky due to an overwhelmed hospital system).
We seem to be trending towards the latter.
I mean, if you hold R0(t) at 1.2 then 70% of the population won't get it (standard, "this isn't the end of the world" assumption set applies) because as more people are infected then your control mechanisms become more effective (because more and more key links in the network become infected and recover) If you are at an R0 of 1.2, then maybe 30-40% get it.
A local hospital did some predictive modeling, but more interesting is their analysis of behavioral changes over the course of the pandemic.
Dallas county is Dallas, which is a relatively (for Texas) liberal area
Tarrant is Fort Worth, which runs much more conservative (it's the only metro area in the state the votes red)
Denton and Collin are suburban areas.
This one is also interesting. I'm not entirely sure how they're defining "percent effectiveness," but it suggests that we're right on the edge of either holding it down or losing our grip completely.
This is part of the reason opening up in late april/early may was nuts... most models at that point seemed to indicate that even a month of additional lockdown/stay at home would probably have made a huge difference.
People think of this as being like graded on an A to F scale, but it’s really more like pass/fail - either you get rid of the virus aside from small localized outbreaks or you don’t and 50-60% of the population get the virus eventually.
Well there's "we managed save some lives because we didn't overload our ICU." Which as fairly C-.
A local hospital did some predictive modeling, but more interesting is their analysis of behavioral changes over the course of the pandemic.
Dallas county is Dallas, which is a relatively (for Texas) liberal area
Tarrant is Fort Worth, which runs much more conservative (it's the only metro area in the state the votes red)
Denton and Collin are suburban areas.
This one is also interesting. I'm not entirely sure how they're defining "percent effectiveness," but it suggests that we're right on the edge of either holding it down or losing our grip completely.
This is part of the reason opening up in late april/early may was nuts... most models at that point seemed to indicate that even a month of additional lockdown/stay at home would probably have made a huge difference.
People think of this as being like graded on an A to F scale, but it’s really more like pass/fail - either you get rid of the virus aside from small localized outbreaks or you don’t and 50-60% of the population get the virus eventually.
Well there's "we managed save some lives because we didn't overload our ICU." Which as fairly C-.
If you begin the growth with sufficient controls to keep r0 between like 1 and 2 you will save hundreds of thousands of lives simply from the effect of fewer people total being infected. Flattening the curves means both fewer cases AND slower cases, assuming your behavior that pit r0t at 1.5 initially is sustainable.
Again, standard "not the end of the world" assumption set applies.
Options are
85-90 % of population get virus in 3 months (no controls, pretend virus does not exist)
70-75 % of population get virus over 5 months (many people behave, many don't, but no general societal changes )
60% of population get virus over 12 months (lots of behavior changes and lots of state and national support)
40% of population over two years (strong interventions at all levels but early outbreak out of control -> probably the best the US can do now)
5% of population get virus over 2 years (strong interventions at all levels but early outbreak under control)
So I guess some people who keep dragging this thread into the weeds rather than keeping it for updates are incapable of changing their behaviour and I’ll probably have to thread kick them.
A large update for something which was indicated earlier. South Korea has completed a large study on the 'relapse' patients who retested positive in PCR after being discharged. Of ~270 patients who were followed in the trial and had retested positive, none of them infected any of their close contacts, and it is now believed with strong confidence that the material being shed from the patients was just dead viral RNA causing the PCR test to trigger. This is relatively common in viruses it turns out (measles is shed for months, Ebola and Zika for up to a year)
So, this is good news in general because...
1) They didn't somehow get reinfected
2) They didn't somehow reinfect themselves from some weird viral reserve in their bodies
3) It looks like 2 weeks is a solid time for people to say, "I am clear of the disease" if you are symptom free, however, PCR tests are going to be a bit less useful for helping out here
4) There are now no examples of people having both antibodies to the virus AND live virus beyond the initial conflict with the virus.
Things to concern yourself with
1) There is now a DISTINCT possibility that people will get sick with like, other viruses like Flu or colds and so on, having recovered from Corona and then go to the doctor for a Corona test and be told "You have Coronavirus again!" because they are shedding dead virus. So, be very careful of reports over the coming months and don't panic too much until there is more data and more trends. Not to say that this won't happen for real, but, there is now a distinctly higher chance of false positive signals on reinfection.
Texas is opening up... pretty much the rest of the way this weekend. Bars may still be "25% capacity" or something, but I don't expect that to be enforced. Two days after we had our highest number of cases and largest daily jump.
But don't worry, if the hospitals get overloaded Abbott will shut some things down again. Even though "hospitals at capacity" is weeks after you can shut things down and try to control it.
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Doctor DetroitNot a doctorTree townRegistered Userregular
Because, “hey, why not?” and “of course he is”, Trump says he is taking hydroxychloroquine.
Texas is opening up... pretty much the rest of the way this weekend. Bars may still be "25% capacity" or something, but I don't expect that to be enforced. Two days after we had our highest number of cases and largest daily jump.
But don't worry, if the hospitals get overloaded Abbott will shut some things down again. Even though "hospitals at capacity" is weeks after you can shut things down and try to control it.
Ehh. Texas is a state Trump needs, and could possibly lose. So at least they'll have the backing of the federal government.
Oh, but it'd be hypocritical to mass mobilize and supply a swing state, when Trump has spent months pissing on the idea of "bailing out" blue states?
It'll be spun. And the media won't look too close. And blue state majorities will be pissed off, red state majorities will cheer it on out of spite, and purple states won't care about the hypocrisy, just what Trump is doing to help them.
So he's likely lying about taking a drug that was falsely touted as a treatment, but on top of that he's saying he's using it as a preventative measure.
.
There's.. just too many layers of bullshit there. It's a goddamned bullshit onion.
So he's likely lying about taking a drug that was falsely touted as a treatment, but on top of that he's saying he's using it as a preventative measure.
.
There's.. just too many layers of bullshit there. It's a goddamned bullshit onion.
If he weren't President, he'd be open to such a massive lawsuit.
But he is, and so even though he has no regard for the truth, or the welfare of the public, he's going to keep spruiking this snake oil for the rest of his time in office. Deaths or serious health issues to people following his example as a result, be damned.
Better that than admitting to being wrong, apparently.
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, ModeratorMod Emeritus
A) no he is probably not if he is it doesn't work, has its own side effects, and he's going to end up killing himself and then we'll have Pence and I don't think that's much of an improvement
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
A) no he is probably not if he is it doesn't work, has its own side effects, and he's going to end up killing himself and then we'll have Pence and I don't think that's much of an improvement
It would be an improvement at the ballot box maybe. I don't think a lot of the crazy is willing to go to bat for him compared to Trump. In terms of policies though, definitely worse while doing so much more competently.
What kind of idiot would take a drug that has been proven to be ineffective and may have serious side effects. Oh, it's Trump . Guess I answered my own question
Given that one of the side effects of hydoxychoroquine is heart issues We'll know if hes actually taking them when he suffers a rage induced heart attack.
Given that one of the side effects of hydoxychoroquine is heart issues We'll know if hes actually taking them when he suffers a rage induced heart attack.
That's exactly why I'm 90% sure Trump ain't actually taking them. Trump is too much of a baby to put himself at risk like that. He's just saying this so he can act like he was right all along about the stuff being good for coronavirus.
This is just him drawing on a hurricane map with a sharpie so he can prove to everyone he was right.
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, ModeratorMod Emeritus
That can all go in the discussion thread.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
I've been asking around the hospital and hematology has issued recommendations regarding anticoagulation dosing based on weight, D-dimer, and ICU status. Also recommended is at least 30 days of anticoagulation including apixaban or rivaroxaban outpatient.
I'm not sure which hospitals have adopted this strategy if you happen to be hospitalized, but it never hurts to ask ... if you are several days from discharge.
Marty: The future, it's where you're going? Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, ModeratorMod Emeritus
I've been asking around the hospital and hematology has issued recommendations regarding anticoagulation dosing based on weight, D-dimer, and ICU status. Also recommended is at least 30 days of anticoagulation including apixaban or rivaroxaban outpatient.
I'm not sure which hospitals have adopted this strategy if you happen to be hospitalized, but it never hurts to ask ... if you are several days from discharge.
This is probably better suited to the discussion thread.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
111 new cases yesterday, that's slightly more than double than what showed up the previous Monday, and the highest number of new cases since April 21st. Reopening the Czech Republic might not be going so well.
And this is what's happening with reopening when the number of active cases is decreasing at a pretty good rate. I'm going to paint with a broad brush and say that most areas of the USA that are reopening are going to be turbo-fucked.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
111 new cases yesterday, that's slightly more than double than what showed up the previous Monday, and the highest number of new cases since April 21st. Reopening the Czech Republic might not be going so well.
And this is what's happening with reopening when the number of active cases is decreasing at a pretty good rate. I'm going to paint with a broad brush and say that most areas of the USA that are reopening are going to be turbo-fucked.
The most cursory research on the deaths in 1918 reveal that opening too early can be utterly disastrous in a pandemic.
111 new cases yesterday, that's slightly more than double than what showed up the previous Monday, and the highest number of new cases since April 21st. Reopening the Czech Republic might not be going so well.
And this is what's happening with reopening when the number of active cases is decreasing at a pretty good rate. I'm going to paint with a broad brush and say that most areas of the USA that are reopening are going to be turbo-fucked.
The most cursory research on the deaths in 1918 reveal that opening too early can be utterly disastrous in a pandemic.
I think you mean 1917. That's when the Spanish Flu happened. Apparently.
And yeah, but who could possibly predict that opening too early could be utterly disastrous?
There needs to be a word to describe "doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results". Would probably take an Einstein to define it.
It's fucking mindboggling how averse to basic facts and history these dipshits are.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
The hospitals of Mumbai are near collapse with multiple patients per bed and packed morgues. There's not enough testing, but everyone knows SARS2 is burning through the slums. Doctors and nurses at state-run hospitals haven't been paid for months, months that they have been overworked without breaks due to lack of medical professionals. Problems that have always been endemic such as lack of sanitation (many hospitals will inject newborns with an antibiotic cocktail to try to prevent infections since hospital wards are so filthy) are now exasperated. SARS2 amplifies all the problems that were already there.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
The hospitals of Mumbai are near collapse with multiple patients per bed and packed morgues. There's not enough testing, but everyone knows SARS2 is burning through the slums. Doctors and nurses at state-run hospitals haven't been paid for months, months that they have been overworked without breaks due to lack of medical professionals. Problems that have always been endemic such as lack of sanitation (many hospitals will inject newborns with an antibiotic cocktail to try to prevent infections since hospital wards are so filthy) are now exasperated. SARS2 amplifies all the problems that were already there.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
In the short term, maybe. But if it ends up being as bad as feared, it could do significant medium to long term damage.
A massive flare up might have people skipping Florida well past when they might have been able to open gradually.
And while not everyone will hold it against them, a reputation for being cavalier with the truth and actively harming people might have other destinations be more appealing.
It's not like resort towns are going to be packed out as the US comes out of this thing, so people willing to do so will have options. The Florida government are potentially sabotaging it for some short term gains.
1918 was the second wave, brought on by people choosing haircuts over ten million lives. There were four major waves through 1920, but generally speaking in the current context the second is the one being referenced.
I just got notice that we will be allowed to work from the office starting Monday, in a continuation of Norway's process of gradually opening back up. I'm a professor at a public university.
But given the information in my earlier post (R0 has increased, essenstially no one has had covid-19 yet), I'm rather pensive. At least it looks like we won't be required to work from the office, merely allowed to.
(I certainly won't be going to the lunch room, that's for sure. For the record, I really dislike working from home.)
Sic transit gloria mundi.
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JedocIn the scupperswith the staggers and jagsRegistered Userregular
"We’re going to ask citizens to use common sense about how close they want to gather to each other."
"By that time casinos will be opening. I mean, you can’t tell me at the casinos they’re practicing very safe social distancing."
"I don’t think it’s very concerning. They’ve lifted the ban in most places, so if the state doesn’t see anything concerning, then I shouldn’t either."
"I think I’d take my own precautions, definitely bring my hand sanitizer. But there’s germs everywhere. Any type of festival or anything like that, you’re always going to run that risk."
It's almost as though governments refusing to take responsibility for public safety gives people the idea that they don't need to act responsibly for the sake of public safety.
We have people I know here in North Carolina driving 2-3 hours each way to Bristol, Tennessee to eat out and go shopping because “if it wasn’t safe there they wouldn’t be open”.
Also I’m in the NW triad area which is like the fastest growing outbreak area in MC right now since there have been like 3 meat processing plants have outbreaks in a 3 or 4 county radius from Winston Salem. So good luck Bristol, sorry guys...
The hospitals of Mumbai are near collapse with multiple patients per bed and packed morgues. There's not enough testing, but everyone knows SARS2 is burning through the slums. Doctors and nurses at state-run hospitals haven't been paid for months, months that they have been overworked without breaks due to lack of medical professionals. Problems that have always been endemic such as lack of sanitation (many hospitals will inject newborns with an antibiotic cocktail to try to prevent infections since hospital wards are so filthy) are now exasperated. SARS2 amplifies all the problems that were already there.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
Your summary of the French school situation is unfair. There are 70 cases, but no evidence of a flare up in children because details haven’t been released. The article suggests that it’s actually more likely these are teachers and staff who were infected before the school reopened due to the time for symptoms to emerge. The child who died from inflammatory complications is also unrelated to the school openings.
The hospitals of Mumbai are near collapse with multiple patients per bed and packed morgues. There's not enough testing, but everyone knows SARS2 is burning through the slums. Doctors and nurses at state-run hospitals haven't been paid for months, months that they have been overworked without breaks due to lack of medical professionals. Problems that have always been endemic such as lack of sanitation (many hospitals will inject newborns with an antibiotic cocktail to try to prevent infections since hospital wards are so filthy) are now exasperated. SARS2 amplifies all the problems that were already there.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
Your summary of the French school situation is unfair. There are 70 cases, but no evidence of a flare up in children because details haven’t been released. The article suggests that it’s actually more likely these are teachers and staff who were infected before the school reopened due to the time for symptoms to emerge. The child who died from inflammatory complications is also unrelated to the school openings.
Health officials here in Norway (FHI; Insitute of Public Health) are saying that closing schools and kindergartens / day cares is both the least effective and most expensive anti-corona policy.
FHI said that before the government closed schools / day cares, the said it while they were closed, and they're saying it now that schools / day cares are open again. (The government closed schools / day cares against the recommendation of FHI.)
The hospitals of Mumbai are near collapse with multiple patients per bed and packed morgues. There's not enough testing, but everyone knows SARS2 is burning through the slums. Doctors and nurses at state-run hospitals haven't been paid for months, months that they have been overworked without breaks due to lack of medical professionals. Problems that have always been endemic such as lack of sanitation (many hospitals will inject newborns with an antibiotic cocktail to try to prevent infections since hospital wards are so filthy) are now exasperated. SARS2 amplifies all the problems that were already there.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
Your summary of the French school situation is unfair. There are 70 cases, but no evidence of a flare up in children because details haven’t been released. The article suggests that it’s actually more likely these are teachers and staff who were infected before the school reopened due to the time for symptoms to emerge. The child who died from inflammatory complications is also unrelated to the school openings.
Health officials here in Norway (FHI; Insitute of Public Health) are saying that closing schools and kindergartens / day cares is both the least effective and most expensive anti-corona policy.
FHI said that before the government closed schools / day cares, the said it while they were closed, and they're saying it now that schools / day cares are open again. (The government closed schools / day cares against the recommendation of FHI.)
My spouse and I have the luxury of being able to work from home so... like hell I'll be sending the kids to daycare summer camp. Hard to say how we'll feel about the fall. This is entirely knee-jerk opinion-based reasoning rather than data driven, but I can't see how with the way colds run through a school that it isn't a risk to have them open during this pandemic, even if morbidity in children is minimal.
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Didn't they reopen on the 1st? Which, considering that was a Friday, this is basically the start of two weeks later.
A) you chuckle ducks (leaving the autocorrect here), testing doesn’t create cases, it makes us aware of existing ones
and
This is part of the reason opening up in late april/early may was nuts... most models at that point seemed to indicate that even a month of additional lockdown/stay at home would probably have made a huge difference.
People think of this as being like graded on an A to F scale, but it’s really more like pass/fail - either you get rid of the virus aside from small localized outbreaks or you don’t and 50-60% of the population get the virus eventually.
Edit: you can simply convert that graphs into a “net additional deaths” metric, by 1-month, 3-months, 6-months, 1-year, all intervals too
We seem to be trending towards the latter.
I mean, beggars can't be choosers and even a vaccine which you had to like grow in eagle eggs would be more than worth it, however these mRNA vaccines are VASTLY easier to make and prepare, and can be done on a vastly quicker timescale than anything else (other than maybe those ones that they think you might be able to make in plants) because I believe you can just make the vaccine in GM yeast and other simple single celled organisms. In addition, one thing that I do know is that you need vastly less material than for other vaccines because the mRNA actually instructs your own body to make the protein sections which the immune system will respond to.
Effectively the mRNA makes you into a vaccine factory, its vastly easier to scale if it works. Conventional vaccines need like, eggs to grow in. Even if we had one right now it would take 12 months to have enough for a big fraction of the population but the mRNA vaccines might be ready at the hundreds of millions of dose level within months if one works.
The new numbers impliy an estimated lethality of 0.7% (up from an estimate of 0.3%; more than a doubling) and a hospitalization rate of 3.9%. (Lethality assumes sufficient hospital capacity.)
(They also estimate that R0 has increased from about 0.5 to just shy of 1, but this has less importance for the rest of the world.)
Source national public broadcaster NRK.
I mean, if you hold R0(t) at 1.2 then 70% of the population won't get it (standard, "this isn't the end of the world" assumption set applies) because as more people are infected then your control mechanisms become more effective (because more and more key links in the network become infected and recover) If you are at an R0 of 1.2, then maybe 30-40% get it.
Well there's "we managed save some lives because we didn't overload our ICU." Which as fairly C-.
If you begin the growth with sufficient controls to keep r0 between like 1 and 2 you will save hundreds of thousands of lives simply from the effect of fewer people total being infected. Flattening the curves means both fewer cases AND slower cases, assuming your behavior that pit r0t at 1.5 initially is sustainable.
Again, standard "not the end of the world" assumption set applies.
Options are
85-90 % of population get virus in 3 months (no controls, pretend virus does not exist)
70-75 % of population get virus over 5 months (many people behave, many don't, but no general societal changes )
60% of population get virus over 12 months (lots of behavior changes and lots of state and national support)
40% of population over two years (strong interventions at all levels but early outbreak out of control -> probably the best the US can do now)
5% of population get virus over 2 years (strong interventions at all levels but early outbreak under control)
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
A large update for something which was indicated earlier. South Korea has completed a large study on the 'relapse' patients who retested positive in PCR after being discharged. Of ~270 patients who were followed in the trial and had retested positive, none of them infected any of their close contacts, and it is now believed with strong confidence that the material being shed from the patients was just dead viral RNA causing the PCR test to trigger. This is relatively common in viruses it turns out (measles is shed for months, Ebola and Zika for up to a year)
So, this is good news in general because...
1) They didn't somehow get reinfected
2) They didn't somehow reinfect themselves from some weird viral reserve in their bodies
3) It looks like 2 weeks is a solid time for people to say, "I am clear of the disease" if you are symptom free, however, PCR tests are going to be a bit less useful for helping out here
4) There are now no examples of people having both antibodies to the virus AND live virus beyond the initial conflict with the virus.
Things to concern yourself with
1) There is now a DISTINCT possibility that people will get sick with like, other viruses like Flu or colds and so on, having recovered from Corona and then go to the doctor for a Corona test and be told "You have Coronavirus again!" because they are shedding dead virus. So, be very careful of reports over the coming months and don't panic too much until there is more data and more trends. Not to say that this won't happen for real, but, there is now a distinctly higher chance of false positive signals on reinfection.
But don't worry, if the hospitals get overloaded Abbott will shut some things down again. Even though "hospitals at capacity" is weeks after you can shut things down and try to control it.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/18/politics/donald-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html
Ehh. Texas is a state Trump needs, and could possibly lose. So at least they'll have the backing of the federal government.
Oh, but it'd be hypocritical to mass mobilize and supply a swing state, when Trump has spent months pissing on the idea of "bailing out" blue states?
It'll be spun. And the media won't look too close. And blue state majorities will be pissed off, red state majorities will cheer it on out of spite, and purple states won't care about the hypocrisy, just what Trump is doing to help them.
So he's likely lying about taking a drug that was falsely touted as a treatment, but on top of that he's saying he's using it as a preventative measure.
.
There's.. just too many layers of bullshit there. It's a goddamned bullshit onion.
If he weren't President, he'd be open to such a massive lawsuit.
But he is, and so even though he has no regard for the truth, or the welfare of the public, he's going to keep spruiking this snake oil for the rest of his time in office. Deaths or serious health issues to people following his example as a result, be damned.
Better that than admitting to being wrong, apparently.
*headdesk*
A) no he is probably not
It would be an improvement at the ballot box maybe. I don't think a lot of the crazy is willing to go to bat for him compared to Trump. In terms of policies though, definitely worse while doing so much more competently.
What kind of idiot would take a drug that has been proven to be ineffective and may have serious side effects. Oh, it's Trump . Guess I answered my own question
That's exactly why I'm 90% sure Trump ain't actually taking them. Trump is too much of a baby to put himself at risk like that. He's just saying this so he can act like he was right all along about the stuff being good for coronavirus.
This is just him drawing on a hurricane map with a sharpie so he can prove to everyone he was right.
I'm not sure which hospitals have adopted this strategy if you happen to be hospitalized, but it never hurts to ask ... if you are several days from discharge.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
This is probably better suited to the discussion thread.
And this is what's happening with reopening when the number of active cases is decreasing at a pretty good rate. I'm going to paint with a broad brush and say that most areas of the USA that are reopening are going to be turbo-fucked.
The most cursory research on the deaths in 1918 reveal that opening too early can be utterly disastrous in a pandemic.
I think you mean 1917. That's when the Spanish Flu happened. Apparently.
And yeah, but who could possibly predict that opening too early could be utterly disastrous?
There needs to be a word to describe "doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results". Would probably take an Einstein to define it.
It's fucking mindboggling how averse to basic facts and history these dipshits are.
France has been easing the lockdowns and allowing some students back into schools and one week in there's already a flareup of children being diagnosed with COVID-19. Seventy cases have been linked to the schools, and one child has died of Kawasaki disease, which is now appearing as a rare reaction of some children after they catch SARS2.
In Florida, the woman who designed the state's COVID-19 dashboard has been removed from her position after she openly refused to censor and manually remove data to drum up support for ending lockdowns. After she was removed, the site crashed and has remained offline. The Florida state government is trying to hide the rapid growth in cases and deaths in the state so tourists won't stay away and the old residents won't freak out. And they might be succeeding.
Florida dashboard appears to be up currently.
In the short term, maybe. But if it ends up being as bad as feared, it could do significant medium to long term damage.
A massive flare up might have people skipping Florida well past when they might have been able to open gradually.
And while not everyone will hold it against them, a reputation for being cavalier with the truth and actively harming people might have other destinations be more appealing.
It's not like resort towns are going to be packed out as the US comes out of this thing, so people willing to do so will have options. The Florida government are potentially sabotaging it for some short term gains.
But given the information in my earlier post (R0 has increased, essenstially no one has had covid-19 yet), I'm rather pensive. At least it looks like we won't be required to work from the office, merely allowed to.
(I certainly won't be going to the lunch room, that's for sure. For the record, I really dislike working from home.)
Some choice quotes:
"We’re going to ask citizens to use common sense about how close they want to gather to each other."
"By that time casinos will be opening. I mean, you can’t tell me at the casinos they’re practicing very safe social distancing."
"I don’t think it’s very concerning. They’ve lifted the ban in most places, so if the state doesn’t see anything concerning, then I shouldn’t either."
"I think I’d take my own precautions, definitely bring my hand sanitizer. But there’s germs everywhere. Any type of festival or anything like that, you’re always going to run that risk."
It's almost as though governments refusing to take responsibility for public safety gives people the idea that they don't need to act responsibly for the sake of public safety.
Also I’m in the NW triad area which is like the fastest growing outbreak area in MC right now since there have been like 3 meat processing plants have outbreaks in a 3 or 4 county radius from Winston Salem. So good luck Bristol, sorry guys...
Your summary of the French school situation is unfair. There are 70 cases, but no evidence of a flare up in children because details haven’t been released. The article suggests that it’s actually more likely these are teachers and staff who were infected before the school reopened due to the time for symptoms to emerge. The child who died from inflammatory complications is also unrelated to the school openings.
Health officials here in Norway (FHI; Insitute of Public Health) are saying that closing schools and kindergartens / day cares is both the least effective and most expensive anti-corona policy.
FHI said that before the government closed schools / day cares, the said it while they were closed, and they're saying it now that schools / day cares are open again. (The government closed schools / day cares against the recommendation of FHI.)
My spouse and I have the luxury of being able to work from home so... like hell I'll be sending the kids to daycare summer camp. Hard to say how we'll feel about the fall. This is entirely knee-jerk opinion-based reasoning rather than data driven, but I can't see how with the way colds run through a school that it isn't a risk to have them open during this pandemic, even if morbidity in children is minimal.