Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
From what I'm reading elsewhere, it's very unlikely for any of WI/MI/PA to be lost, given what we know about untallied early votes?
WI/MI seem decent but we've got very little usable info to go on with early votes. Given the good performance in MN I'm pretty confident. PA is a big shrug, because so much of the vote is outstanding that it's really hard to meaningfully predict.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We really, really need to take the Senate, because otherwise McConnell is absolutely going to prevent anything from passing ever. And as usual the media will blame the Democrats.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
Flipping the Senate has always been a longshot and only became within the realm of possibility if you assumed D Senators were all performing as well as Biden v Trump. That's why Biden's been so coy about court packing and all the other sort of stuff that would require winning the Senate.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We really, really need to take the Senate, because otherwise McConnell is absolutely going to prevent anything from passing ever. And as usual the media will blame the Democrats.
If we are fortunate enough to take the Presidency then at least we may get some level of response to the virus from a disease control perspective (Biden simply ordering the CDC to begin their work and run the response of the states), which is some comfort, the Republicans will scrimp and save pointlessly and the poor will face an immense crisis due to lack of aid, but at least we may lose the active hostility to a response.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We really, really need to take the Senate, because otherwise McConnell is absolutely going to prevent anything from passing ever. And as usual the media will blame the Democrats.
Get ready for a like a half billion dollar two month Senate campaign in Georgia.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We can dunk on the Rs when DC is a state, assuming a 51-49 split.
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
Possible but difficult. We need 3 of:
-Peters hanging on
-GA special (win in runoff)
-GA regular (win in runoff)
-Cunningham picks up... somehow... when the final NC count comes
-Gideon pulls ahead from ranked choice reallocation
I mean, they're certainly possible, particularly the first one. If that happens and we keep Purdue under 50% then even in the worst case it's 48-50 and the special elections etc, so.. second kick at the can. But uphill battle definitely.
edit: Peters seems likely to win - he's polling around the same level as Biden in the early MI returns so as long as the remaining vote comes out OK I guess he should get a similar result. Nationalization of the races etc.
From what I'm reading elsewhere, it's very unlikely for any of WI/MI/PA to be lost, given what we know about untallied early votes?
I imagine Trump's best are on their way to ratfuck like they've never ratfucked before. Lawyers are on their way.
If it's any consolation it's entirely possible that Trump flat out stole the majority of the funds that were supposed to pay for lawyers for the election because he can't help himself.
That's not going to happen, I don't think. Collins is substantially outperforming her polling numbers, and two third party candidates are at a combined 6% or so.
Don't they have ranked choice?
They do. If Collins gets knocked below 50 she was getting crushed in the second choice balloting in the polls I saw. Even the ones that were good for her.
According to NYT she’s at 52.3 right now, with Portland at only 2% reporting. So it’s possible that lead drops below 50.
Cantide on
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
How is it this close? Is it a case of our polls being fucked again ? It shouldn't be this close. Not even. Fuck pumpkin head
There are over 60 million Nazis in this country is the problem. It's not like Trump made it through the primary and won the general election based on some kind of confusion about who he was.
60 million Nazis supported by one half of our two-party political system that has been ratfucking our democracy since McCarthy and Nixon in order to disenfranchise anyone who isn't a Nazi
It fucking sucks, but even though the Nazis are holding their own (again) know that there's more of us than there are of them. We just have to keep hitting them until they can't get back up again
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We can dunk on the Rs when DC is a state, assuming a 51-49 split.
This relies on Democrats getting the Senate because McConnell will make sure it never happens if republicans still control the chamber. Same deal for PR, if they vote once again to be allowed to be a state.
I think this sort of stuff is probably about as meaningful as internal polling results. I don't take it as a bad sign, but it's like, 0.1x as good a sign as real data because all it signals is "we don't think this is so laughable we're can't keep a straight face saying it."
It's all going to come down to the ratfucking, is the thing: how bad can Trump ratfuck MI, WI, and PA over the absentee ballots?
There's no way this election ends without the SC stepping in and handing it to Trump; this is why he got Barrett and Kavanaugh on there; because their quo pro for the quid of getting them on the SC has come due, and Barrett looks like she'll do whatever Trump wants, and Kavanaugh will play fucking Election Law Calvinball to justify it.
How is it this close? Is it a case of our polls being fucked again ? It shouldn't be this close. Not even. Fuck pumpkin head
There are over 60 million Nazis in this country is the problem. It's not like Trump made it through the primary and won the general election based on some kind of confusion about who he was.
60 million Nazis supported by one half of our two-party political system that has been ratfucking our democracy since McCarthy and Nixon in order to disenfranchise anyone who isn't a Nazi
It fucking sucks, but even though the Nazis are holding their own (again) know that there's more of us than there are of them. We just have to keep hitting them until they can't get back up again
And then hit them some more because fuck Nazis
There is always a sizeable portion of Nazis and people who don't stop them in any country. What happened to Germany in the 30s and 40s happened to country that liked to call itself "land of the poets and thinkers" before. It can happen anywhere, anytime.
How is it this close? Is it a case of our polls being fucked again ? It shouldn't be this close. Not even. Fuck pumpkin head
There are over 60 million Nazis in this country is the problem. It's not like Trump made it through the primary and won the general election based on some kind of confusion about who he was.
60 million Nazis supported by one half of our two-party political system that has been ratfucking our democracy since McCarthy and Nixon in order to disenfranchise anyone who isn't a Nazi
It fucking sucks, but even though the Nazis are holding their own (again) know that there's more of us than there are of them. We just have to keep hitting them until they can't get back up again
Milwaukee is still way, way behind on their counting. When Biden's numbers get up to 2016 D margin for the county, that alone wipes out Trump's red mirage in Wisconsin.
It's all going to come down to the ratfucking, is the thing: how bad can Trump ratfuck MI, WI, and PA over the absentee ballots?
There's no way this election ends without the SC stepping in and handing it to Trump; this is why he got Barrett and Kavanaugh on there; because their quo pro for the quid of getting them on the SC has come due, and Barrett looks like she'll do whatever Trump wants, and Kavanaugh will play fucking Election Law Calvinball to justify it.
Why are you even posting? Pessimism is one thing, blackpill bullshit means you need to eat a snickers and take a goddamned nap.
I ate an engineer
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MrMisterJesus dying on the cross in pain? Morally better than us. One has to go "all in".Registered Userregular
Are we really not looking at flipping the Senate? I'm pretty not wild about another four years of Senate Maj. Leader McConnell.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
We really, really need to take the Senate, because otherwise McConnell is absolutely going to prevent anything from passing ever. And as usual the media will blame the Democrats.
I predict that if the Senate remains Republican, and remains obstructionist, then we're going to see a continuation of the Bush-Obama-Trump escalation of the unilateral executive.
Trump's unconstitutional reapportionment of funds for the wall, not to mention the day-to-day operation of his agencies, shows that the executive can more or less do what it wants and the law be damned (sometimes action is accompanied with thin pretextual justifications; the sophists and the lawyers can take care of that). So long as the house remains D and remains highly partisan, and Biden's program remains popular, they will never in a million years impeach him for even clearly unconstitutional activity. I don't think that's his, or anyone's, first choice, but I think that the pressure to perform is going to push him in that direction if he wins and faces a hostile senate.
If that were to happen, it would be devastating to the ideal of procedural liberal democracy, but it is still a route by which the executive can govern even in the face of a dysfunctional legislature.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Just got home, trying to figure out what's going on.
Decided it is indeed a Porque no los dos situation
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
Milwaukee projects they can finish counting their absentee ballots at around 4 a.m. Eastern, or 2.5 hours from now. By Wisconsin law, they can't post any of their absentee totals until all of them are done. That's 170k votes, likely to be heavily Biden. That will be the moment Wisconsin flips blue.
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PA is a bigger risk than WI and MI.
It's gonna be close. We might be able to eke out a 50-50 with VP or 51-49 split, but it will be begging the moderate Ds to do the right thing a lot rather than dunking all over Rs.
WI/MI seem decent but we've got very little usable info to go on with early votes. Given the good performance in MN I'm pretty confident. PA is a big shrug, because so much of the vote is outstanding that it's really hard to meaningfully predict.
We really, really need to take the Senate, because otherwise McConnell is absolutely going to prevent anything from passing ever. And as usual the media will blame the Democrats.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
We watched the prequel last election. I hope that headline I read about Biden having 4000 lawers at the ready is true.
I personally am unsure about Pennsylvania. MI/WI pretty confident we take.
Flipping the Senate has always been a longshot and only became within the realm of possibility if you assumed D Senators were all performing as well as Biden v Trump. That's why Biden's been so coy about court packing and all the other sort of stuff that would require winning the Senate.
If we are fortunate enough to take the Presidency then at least we may get some level of response to the virus from a disease control perspective (Biden simply ordering the CDC to begin their work and run the response of the states), which is some comfort, the Republicans will scrimp and save pointlessly and the poor will face an immense crisis due to lack of aid, but at least we may lose the active hostility to a response.
And without PA, we're fucked, I think. I mean, AZ and NV could still go Trump.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
Get ready for a like a half billion dollar two month Senate campaign in Georgia.
Nah, we still have a path without PA. PA is nice, but not critical at this point, assuming Nevada holds up as people in state are predicting.
We can dunk on the Rs when DC is a state, assuming a 51-49 split.
Possible but difficult. We need 3 of:
-Peters hanging on
-GA special (win in runoff)
-GA regular (win in runoff)
-Cunningham picks up... somehow... when the final NC count comes
-Gideon pulls ahead from ranked choice reallocation
I mean, they're certainly possible, particularly the first one. If that happens and we keep Purdue under 50% then even in the worst case it's 48-50 and the special elections etc, so.. second kick at the can. But uphill battle definitely.
edit: Peters seems likely to win - he's polling around the same level as Biden in the early MI returns so as long as the remaining vote comes out OK I guess he should get a similar result. Nationalization of the races etc.
If it's any consolation it's entirely possible that Trump flat out stole the majority of the funds that were supposed to pay for lawyers for the election because he can't help himself.
According to NYT she’s at 52.3 right now, with Portland at only 2% reporting. So it’s possible that lead drops below 50.
There are over 60 million Nazis in this country is the problem. It's not like Trump made it through the primary and won the general election based on some kind of confusion about who he was.
60 million Nazis supported by one half of our two-party political system that has been ratfucking our democracy since McCarthy and Nixon in order to disenfranchise anyone who isn't a Nazi
It fucking sucks, but even though the Nazis are holding their own (again) know that there's more of us than there are of them. We just have to keep hitting them until they can't get back up again
And then hit them some more because fuck Nazis
This is probably the most likely "surprise", since NC will be counting mail in votes for up to the next week as they are received.
This relies on Democrats getting the Senate because McConnell will make sure it never happens if republicans still control the chamber. Same deal for PR, if they vote once again to be allowed to be a state.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
I think it's pretty fucking critical for me to be able to sleep well this week / month / year.
I think this sort of stuff is probably about as meaningful as internal polling results. I don't take it as a bad sign, but it's like, 0.1x as good a sign as real data because all it signals is "we don't think this is so laughable we're can't keep a straight face saying it."
They could in much the same sense that NC and Georgia could still go to Biden. You need to sleep, as do I.
There's no way this election ends without the SC stepping in and handing it to Trump; this is why he got Barrett and Kavanaugh on there; because their quo pro for the quid of getting them on the SC has come due, and Barrett looks like she'll do whatever Trump wants, and Kavanaugh will play fucking Election Law Calvinball to justify it.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
There is always a sizeable portion of Nazis and people who don't stop them in any country. What happened to Germany in the 30s and 40s happened to country that liked to call itself "land of the poets and thinkers" before. It can happen anywhere, anytime.
That’s a lot of Nazis.
Why are you even posting? Pessimism is one thing, blackpill bullshit means you need to eat a snickers and take a goddamned nap.
I predict that if the Senate remains Republican, and remains obstructionist, then we're going to see a continuation of the Bush-Obama-Trump escalation of the unilateral executive.
Trump's unconstitutional reapportionment of funds for the wall, not to mention the day-to-day operation of his agencies, shows that the executive can more or less do what it wants and the law be damned (sometimes action is accompanied with thin pretextual justifications; the sophists and the lawyers can take care of that). So long as the house remains D and remains highly partisan, and Biden's program remains popular, they will never in a million years impeach him for even clearly unconstitutional activity. I don't think that's his, or anyone's, first choice, but I think that the pressure to perform is going to push him in that direction if he wins and faces a hostile senate.
If that were to happen, it would be devastating to the ideal of procedural liberal democracy, but it is still a route by which the executive can govern even in the face of a dysfunctional legislature.
Decided it is indeed a Porque no los dos situation
yeah lookin pretty red over here looooooool jk clark county hasn't reported yet
Not really; MI, WI and PA haven't touched the early votes yet. Biden needs two of them.
Nope. He just hasn't lost yet.
Which is not what we wanted but he needs all the uncalled states basically.
No, Trump has more confirmed electoral votes from areas that have reported their votes already. That's completely unrelated to winning.