Club PA 2.0 has arrived! If you'd like to access some extra PA content and help support the forums, check it out at patreon.com/ClubPA
The image size limit has been raised to 1mb! Anything larger than that should be linked to. This is a HARD limit, please do not abuse it.
Our new Indie Games subforum is now open for business in G&T. Go and check it out, you might land a code for a free game. If you're developing an indie game and want to post about it, follow these directions. If you don't, he'll break your legs! Hahaha! Seriously though.
Our rules have been updated and given their own forum. Go and look at them! They are nice, and there may be new ones that you didn't know about! Hooray for rules! Hooray for The System! Hooray for Conforming!

[European Politics] European Elections: This Time It's Different?

12346

Posts

  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    Arguably with local and european election turnout being what it is, its as much a case of traditional mainstream party supporters just not turning up to vote than a swing in voting preferences. Obviously this varies in different jurisdictions though.

    wilting on
  • CalixtusCalixtus Registered User regular
    Morat242 wrote: »
    Calixtus wrote: »
    Successive French governments has been running budget deficits since the 70's.

    But you know, the fact that they don't have buffer to borrow against in times of crisis is clearly Berlins fault.
    They do have a buffer. The markets are offering most of Europe (including France) oceans of free money if they will just invest it somewhere. Even though inflation is at 0.7% a year, the bond markets are only asking France for 0.118% on a one-year loan. And if they spend the money on things that grow the economy, they're even better off. That gets them a larger tax base later, and simultaneously improves the investment return in general, which means more investment and a return to growth. Keynesianism, it's not that hard.

    Not to mention, exactly what do you think the German government has been doing? You think they've been running surpluses this whole time? No, see, pre-crisis, Spain and Ireland had significant surpluses, and Germany was well into the red. How did that work out? Gee, it's almost like it's much more important to be a powerful country that (effectively) controls its own currency than it is to run a surplus. Now they've gotten moralistic about how everyone needs to adopt the economic policies that destroyed the Weimar Republic (ushering in the Nazis) for, like, no reason. Because austerity doesn't lower debt. It shrinks the economy, which makes existing debt harder to finance. That makes it less likely that the debt will be repaid, which shoots up the interest rate, which makes the debt burden explode (and the interest rate goes up even faster as you get effectively a bank run). If you're powerful and you run your own currency, you can just print more money and fuck over the speculators, which means the speculators don't go after you. If you're tied to a hard currency like gold (or subject to someone who is pretending like you are, like the ECB is for the eurozone), you are incredibly vulnerable.
    These are the rates they're getting after electing a president - and giving him a parliamentary supermajority - who promised to balance the budget by 2017.

    I'm not saying I think that's a good idea, but it is literally the platform on which he won the french election. We can't have a democracy where you can vote for whatever and then once those policies - whether they are signing the Stability and Growth Pact, ignoring the hell out of the Stability and Growth Pact, austerity or deficiency spending and so on - turn out to have Actual Consequences then, fuckin' whoa, it's someone elses fault.

    You can't elect a guy, realize you hate him, then vote for people who think Ebola would be a neat way to "fix" immigration (who knows why he didn't just call it die endlösung straight up) and its the first guys fault for doing what he said he would do before you elected him.

    -This message was deviously brought to you by:
  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    One thing that strongly connects the big crises and extremism is democratic deficit.
    As in, if people were taken better care of by their ruling and economical elites, there wouldn't be a crisis. Since there is a crisis, there is probably a disconnect somewhere, and that disconnect by itself might result in extremism given that more conservative options can be clearly seen to not change matters.

    That was the case with the nazis, and may 68, and it's the case with occupy and the indignados and arab spring. This is not limited to economic crises, but they tend to pack a wallop when it comes to crowd reaction.

    "We're suffering and/or afraid!" cry the people.
    "Don't worry," respond their elected representatives. "We're almost done making you pretty enough for the capitalists Minotaur again."
    "Gee, thanks!" says the crowd, perhaps somewhat ironic.
    "Our pleasure, have some lipstick on the house. Oh, and close your eyes and think of the banksIsland, will ya? The investors Minotaur can be a bit rough."
    "Know him wel, do you?" Goes the crowd, passing pitchforks overhead.
    You might think sensible people leave the square at this point, but we're well past the point where any sensible analysis can see virtue in continuing the status quo.
    "Well," Says the moderate politician, happy with how well things are going, and mostly looking at his buddies for confirmation. "That's just good statesmanship. You gotta ply our lords and masters..."
    They never see it coming, because if there is one thing a moderate politician believes, it's that riches trickle down, and that when it goes good with the elites, it goes good with the land. This comes from reading only pink-tinted newspapers, or never leaving Versailles. They honestly think just one more eaten virgin will set things right.

    Replace Minotaur with king, or Tsar, or debt holders, or Wall Street, or whatever you like. Demagogues pop up when the moderates get delusional.

    Cornucopiist on
    Edith Upwards
  • CalixtusCalixtus Registered User regular
    No, demagogues pop up when the people become more interested in believing a delusion than reality.

    Case in point: Well, name one demagogue, ever, with an accurate analysis of reality, and workable solutions on how to fix the problems, that were long-term and worked well. Extra credit will be awarded if the plan does not involve mass murder.

    -This message was deviously brought to you by:
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    Seems like a foregone conclusion that Juncker will be Commission President. The question now is what the fallout will be. At least its a victory for the parliament, I remain baffled how anyone could oppose the spitzenkandidaten system (read: democracy) on "principle". Great democratic step forward for the European Union.

  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    Turns out not everyone likes seeing a parliament develop organically

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    I understand the rational self interest for member states wanting to hold on to their power, but it has proved a politically impractical position in this instance, as I had hoped.

  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    There's the added venom of member states parliaments now working more closely with the EP, too. But is this really a power play of Cameron standing up for the Council's inalienable rights?

    90% of his audience can't even tell the Council from the Parliament, or that other council for that matter.

    I'm not a big fan of Junckers, but here for example you can read an article where the author, without any irony whatsoever, manages to paint Luxemburgs Prime Minister as living off of other peoples' money and thus being a poor candidate to protect the interests of those (Germany) who need continued Austerity and also no friend of Socialism.
    So no, Junckers is no Che, but he's probably the best anyone who doesn't fancy needing Kalasnikovs to hold off locust hordes of starving unemployed youths (aka lefties) can drag out of the EPP 'victory'. One of their assistants told me not too long ago 'see how well Greece is doing because of the austerity measures!'. Again, without any irony. When the credit ratings are slightly up and so is child starvation this is good news for Christian parties apparently.

    Cameron's 'any regulation past 19th century workhouse basics holds back my millionaire buddies from exploiting the penniless scum' attitude is the only reason all this is happening. If the EPP had voted in a candidate that would propose feeding the poor their own babies, he'd have been all over it.

    But instead the parties went for candidates who're not suicidal. Now if you take a good look at the current president of the Commission, Barroso, you'll notice he was also an EPP candidate put forward because of election results. And that despite enduring Merkel's austerity push, he's been as vocal as permitted on the negative impact of austerity on the recovery as counted by actual jobs and quality of life. And he's also in favour of closer EU cohesion- a Federal Europe.

    Cameron pretending that there's any chance of a candidate put forward by pre-Lisbon means who will also be not of the EPP and also be pro continued austerity, and anti-federation is disingenious. There's zero chance of anyone like that even being allowed near the commission, and this means Cameron is outright lying about the legitimacy AND the legality of the 'spitzenkandidaten' process.

    Cornucopiist on
    Kalkinojakobagger
  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Cameron wanted something to feed his Eurosceptic wing, and he thought he had a decent shot at gaining support. He was utterly wrong and his gambit just ends up being more fodder for the anti-EU element. He had very little to gain by trying to oppose Juncker's appointment if he thought he would fail, unless his end game is an exit from the EU. Which it isn't.

    AManFromEarthBobCesca
  • Morat242Morat242 Registered User regular
    Calixtus wrote: »
    Morat242 wrote: »
    Calixtus wrote: »
    Successive French governments has been running budget deficits since the 70's.

    But you know, the fact that they don't have buffer to borrow against in times of crisis is clearly Berlins fault.
    They do have a buffer. The markets are offering most of Europe (including France) oceans of free money if they will just invest it somewhere. Even though inflation is at 0.7% a year, the bond markets are only asking France for 0.118% on a one-year loan. And if they spend the money on things that grow the economy, they're even better off. That gets them a larger tax base later, and simultaneously improves the investment return in general, which means more investment and a return to growth. Keynesianism, it's not that hard.

    Not to mention, exactly what do you think the German government has been doing? You think they've been running surpluses this whole time? No, see, pre-crisis, Spain and Ireland had significant surpluses, and Germany was well into the red. How did that work out? Gee, it's almost like it's much more important to be a powerful country that (effectively) controls its own currency than it is to run a surplus. Now they've gotten moralistic about how everyone needs to adopt the economic policies that destroyed the Weimar Republic (ushering in the Nazis) for, like, no reason. Because austerity doesn't lower debt. It shrinks the economy, which makes existing debt harder to finance. That makes it less likely that the debt will be repaid, which shoots up the interest rate, which makes the debt burden explode (and the interest rate goes up even faster as you get effectively a bank run). If you're powerful and you run your own currency, you can just print more money and fuck over the speculators, which means the speculators don't go after you. If you're tied to a hard currency like gold (or subject to someone who is pretending like you are, like the ECB is for the eurozone), you are incredibly vulnerable.
    These are the rates they're getting after electing a president - and giving him a parliamentary supermajority - who promised to balance the budget by 2017.

    I'm not saying I think that's a good idea, but it is literally the platform on which he won the french election. We can't have a democracy where you can vote for whatever and then once those policies - whether they are signing the Stability and Growth Pact, ignoring the hell out of the Stability and Growth Pact, austerity or deficiency spending and so on - turn out to have Actual Consequences then, fuckin' whoa, it's someone elses fault.

    You can't elect a guy, realize you hate him, then vote for people who think Ebola would be a neat way to "fix" immigration (who knows why he didn't just call it die endlösung straight up) and its the first guys fault for doing what he said he would do before you elected him.
    Hollande and the Socialists ran on rejecting austerity. Which is how they won! It's just that they fairly quickly began running mainstream austerity plans (though it's telling how pissed the EU bigwigs got when Hollande tried balancing the budget through tax increases rather than spending cuts, the plutocratic geese). As a result, France's economy continued to take a pounding (btw, they won't balance the budget by 2017, because austerity now makes debt problems worse), Hollande is now the most unpopular president in the history of France, and the fascists have started getting popular.

    For what were the choices the French people had in the European elections? Vote for austerity (nominally center-left flavor) or austerity (center-right flavor)? So they found someone else. This is literally how fascists have always gained support. The mainstream parties are confronted with a crisis, they agree on a moral, sensible (catastrophically stupid) response, the population starts casting about for someone else. The fascists offer both a plausible way out (Keynesian investment, albeit in an incredibly idiotic form) and scapegoats to blame, so they are often the winners by default. If the two or three biggest parties commit political suicide, someone will be left in charge.

    jakobaggerCornucopiist
  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    It could be an attempt to to wring even more special treatment for the UK in return for staying in the Union, but he has a lot of problems. Not in the least that he went on on and insulting the guy that is about to be made in charge of such decisions.

    The Front National has always been popular in France though, in 2002 they were the second party in the French presidential election after the first round which forced France to choose between Chirac (Rightwing) and Le Pen (FN) in the second round (Which Chirac won 85:15), but still.

    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    The whole thing seems unnecessarily confrontational. Why not support Juncker in exchange for traction for your reform agenda? It goes back to the fiscal treaty as well, where Cameron produced a bunch of conditions out of nowhere without trying to lay any kind of compromise groundwork beforehand.

    wilting on
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    There is some anger in the UK about Junker's involvement as PM in signing off on large tax deals for UK companies. Although not, I think, from Cameron.

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    I don't know if there is anyone who is particularly enthusiastic about the man himself.

    Kalkino
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    edited June 2014
    wilting wrote: »
    The whole thing seems unnecessarily confrontational. Why not support Juncker in exchange for traction for your reform agenda? It goes back to the fiscal treaty as well, where Cameron produced a bunch of conditions out of nowhere without trying to laying any kind of compromise groundwork beforehand.

    Well I think I see two main reasons:

    1.) The UK government's coalition relies far too heavily on a dodgy bunch of navel gazers on the tory back bench who yearn for the days when we were bombing half of Europe

    and

    2.) David Cameron, specifically, has all the tact and statesmanship of a wet sponge hanging over the edge of a dirty toilet bowl.

    AManFromEarth on
    Lh96QHG.png
    jakobagger
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    I'm having trouble recovering from the fit of laughter that post induced. Its not really funny though, I suppose.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    I wonder if Miliband is going to be any better at this.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    I wonder if Miliband is going to be any better at this.

    Probably, but to balance it he will prove utterly incapable of communicating his successes

    AManFromEarthBogartjakobaggerBobCesca
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    japan wrote: »
    I wonder if Miliband is going to be any better at this.

    Probably, but to balance it he will prove utterly incapable of communicating his successes
    He could have won a Nobel Peace Prize, if only he'd been able to tell anyone about what he did.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    Another good read from the Guardian, offering I think a more balanced perspective: acknowledging that while he's a bit grey the man is a formidable technocrat who put his stamp on the EU.

    Perhaps this is a key to Cameron's issue with him: whereas Cameron likes to openly put pressure on his colleagues and other institutions with the threat of secession (and by now I think most Europeans are thinking o please do) Juncker is all about back room deals.
    No tabloids, no simplistic diabolisations, no make it or break it dialectic... Juncker is known for his grey subtlety, know how, people skills, no small amount of negotiation.

    We've seen something like this before: Van Rompuy was chosen as a grey, workeable solution because all other serious contenders also wanted to bring reform to the job that would have suited their style and ambitions but undermined any chance at consensus.

  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    What bugs me about this is that, of all the complaints I've heard about Juncker, I don't think I've heard any politician mention that he's president of a tax haven that costs us billions.

    Kalkino
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    What bugs me about this is that, of all the complaints I've heard about Juncker, I don't think I've heard any politician mention that he's president of a tax haven that costs us billions.

    Private Eye has and does again this week

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
    Geth
  • honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    There's the added venom of member states parliaments now working more closely with the EP, too. But is this really a power play of Cameron standing up for the Council's inalienable rights?

    90% of his audience can't even tell the Council from the Parliament, or that other council for that matter.

    I'm not a big fan of Junckers, but here for example you can read an article where the author, without any irony whatsoever, manages to paint Luxemburgs Prime Minister as living off of other peoples' money and thus being a poor candidate to protect the interests of those (Germany) who need continued Austerity and also no friend of Socialism.
    So no, Junckers is no Che, but he's probably the best anyone who doesn't fancy needing Kalasnikovs to hold off locust hordes of starving unemployed youths (aka lefties) can drag out of the EPP 'victory'. One of their assistants told me not too long ago 'see how well Greece is doing because of the austerity measures!'. Again, without any irony. When the credit ratings are slightly up and so is child starvation this is good news for Christian parties apparently.

    Cameron's 'any regulation past 19th century workhouse basics holds back my millionaire buddies from exploiting the penniless scum' attitude is the only reason all this is happening. If the EPP had voted in a candidate that would propose feeding the poor their own babies, he'd have been all over it.

    But instead the parties went for candidates who're not suicidal. Now if you take a good look at the current president of the Commission, Barroso, you'll notice he was also an EPP candidate put forward because of election results. And that despite enduring Merkel's austerity push, he's been as vocal as permitted on the negative impact of austerity on the recovery as counted by actual jobs and quality of life. And he's also in favour of closer EU cohesion- a Federal Europe.

    Cameron pretending that there's any chance of a candidate put forward by pre-Lisbon means who will also be not of the EPP and also be pro continued austerity, and anti-federation is disingenious. There's zero chance of anyone like that even being allowed near the commission, and this means Cameron is outright lying about the legitimacy AND the legality of the 'spitzenkandidaten' process.

    That author is also the most right-wing fear-mongering left-bashing pundit Der Spiegel has to offer. I don't think you can get much more Fox-Newsy in German main stream media.

  • CornucopiistCornucopiist Registered User regular
    edited June 2014
    honovere wrote: »
    That author is also the most right-wing fear-mongering left-bashing pundit Der Spiegel has to offer. I don't think you can get much more Fox-Newsy in German main stream media.

    I don't think anyone needed any context to get that, but it's good to know. DSI is interesting because it rarely seems to push for a pseudo-neutral tone. If a lefty writes on Putin it'll be a completely different article from when a righty does. Nor do they stick to only one side, or editorialize out contradictions between opposing articles.

    Cornucopiist on
  • Clown ShoesClown Shoes Give me hay or give me death. Registered User regular
    Kalkino wrote: »
    What bugs me about this is that, of all the complaints I've heard about Juncker, I don't think I've heard any politician mention that he's president of a tax haven that costs us billions.

    Private Eye has and does again this week

    That's why it's the only journalism I'm willing to hand over cash for.

    KalkinoThe Fourth Estate
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    I don't agree with the tone of this article but I find it an interesting summary of events.

  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • wiltingwilting Registered User regular
    Money has to come from somewhere!

    Kalkino
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    wilting wrote: »
    Money has to come from somewhere!

    Quite.

    Seems to be framed as EU Terrible, Tin Eared in UK.

    Despite it being known about for a while.

    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
    wilting
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    I am rather surprised the Greek election of an openly anti-austerity, fuck you Germany party has not caused the immediate revival of this thread.

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    It's downright imperative that the EU-IMF-ECB Troika considers the fact that if this Left-Nationalist coalition fails to deliver anything, the third largest party waiting in the shadows is an honest-to-goodness Nazi party with extra-parliamentarian tactics, scapegoat rhetoric and connections to police and army members.

  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    It's downright imperative that the EU-IMF-ECB Troika considers the fact that if this Left-Nationalist coalition fails to deliver anything, the third largest party waiting in the shadows is an honest-to-goodness Nazi party with extra-parliamentarian tactics, scapegoat rhetoric and connections to police and army members.

    Considering how well the whole Ukraine thing went, we'll probably be fighting Greek Nazi's any fucking day now.

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Absalon wrote: »
    It's downright imperative that the EU-IMF-ECB Troika considers the fact that if this Left-Nationalist coalition fails to deliver anything, the third largest party waiting in the shadows is an honest-to-goodness Nazi party with extra-parliamentarian tactics, scapegoat rhetoric and connections to police and army members.

    Considering how well the whole Ukraine thing went, we'll probably be fighting Greek Nazi's any fucking day now.

    With the tendency of the EU and US leadership to act more like bankers, I wouldn't be surprised if they did all they could to crush Tsipras and get all the debts repaid with all the interest, ending up with a fascist Greece presaging a continent-wide surge to the right. There's a strange mixture of disconnect and fascination with technocratic "pain" to fix problems that doesn't seem to jibe well with representative democracies.

    Every keeps making fun of that Democratic donor billionaire at Davos talking about how the regular people need to accept less and settle for a dramatically reduced lifestyle, but if that's the thinking of our global elite, I fully expect to see a swell of support for anyone with the opposite message. Unfortunately, it seems like the far right have figured that out too.

    shrykeCptKemzikRchanenPanda4YouAndy Joejakobagger
  • Morat242Morat242 Registered User regular
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Absalon wrote: »
    It's downright imperative that the EU-IMF-ECB Troika considers the fact that if this Left-Nationalist coalition fails to deliver anything, the third largest party waiting in the shadows is an honest-to-goodness Nazi party with extra-parliamentarian tactics, scapegoat rhetoric and connections to police and army members.

    Considering how well the whole Ukraine thing went, we'll probably be fighting Greek Nazi's any fucking day now.

    With the tendency of the EU and US leadership to act more like bankers, I wouldn't be surprised if they did all they could to crush Tsipras and get all the debts repaid with all the interest, ending up with a fascist Greece presaging a continent-wide surge to the right. There's a strange mixture of disconnect and fascination with technocratic "pain" to fix problems that doesn't seem to jibe well with representative democracies.

    Every keeps making fun of that Democratic donor billionaire at Davos talking about how the regular people need to accept less and settle for a dramatically reduced lifestyle, but if that's the thinking of our global elite, I fully expect to see a swell of support for anyone with the opposite message. Unfortunately, it seems like the far right have figured that out too.
    Fortunately, they don't have much leverage over Greece. Greece is running a primary surplus, if they default they can perform some stimulus even if no one will lend them money. And the worst that the EU can do to them if they tell the EU to go fuck themselves is less bad than what the EU is doing to them right now in response to Greek cooperation.

    "Let me burn down your house with all your stuff inside or I'll destroy the TV in your house" is not a very good threat. Not to mention that last year Switzerland told the EU that it was going to start ignoring some of its treaty obligations, and while the treaties are written such that they all are broken if that happens, the EU protested and then went along. They've already demonstrated that their threats aren't super credible.

    As for the fascists, well, if times are desperate and the mainstream parties are all out of ideas, people will look to the fringes, because the fringe always has ideas. "Vote for us, we'll make sure you never get another job" isn't super appealing. People will find an alternative, and it ain't always gonna be leftists promising to implement textbook economic policies.

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Morat242 wrote: »
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Absalon wrote: »
    It's downright imperative that the EU-IMF-ECB Troika considers the fact that if this Left-Nationalist coalition fails to deliver anything, the third largest party waiting in the shadows is an honest-to-goodness Nazi party with extra-parliamentarian tactics, scapegoat rhetoric and connections to police and army members.

    Considering how well the whole Ukraine thing went, we'll probably be fighting Greek Nazi's any fucking day now.

    With the tendency of the EU and US leadership to act more like bankers, I wouldn't be surprised if they did all they could to crush Tsipras and get all the debts repaid with all the interest, ending up with a fascist Greece presaging a continent-wide surge to the right. There's a strange mixture of disconnect and fascination with technocratic "pain" to fix problems that doesn't seem to jibe well with representative democracies.

    Every keeps making fun of that Democratic donor billionaire at Davos talking about how the regular people need to accept less and settle for a dramatically reduced lifestyle, but if that's the thinking of our global elite, I fully expect to see a swell of support for anyone with the opposite message. Unfortunately, it seems like the far right have figured that out too.
    Fortunately, they don't have much leverage over Greece. Greece is running a primary surplus, if they default they can perform some stimulus even if no one will lend them money. And the worst that the EU can do to them if they tell the EU to go fuck themselves is less bad than what the EU is doing to them right now in response to Greek cooperation.

    "Let me burn down your house with all your stuff inside or I'll destroy the TV in your house" is not a very good threat. Not to mention that last year Switzerland told the EU that it was going to start ignoring some of its treaty obligations, and while the treaties are written such that they all are broken if that happens, the EU protested and then went along. They've already demonstrated that their threats aren't super credible.

    As for the fascists, well, if times are desperate and the mainstream parties are all out of ideas, people will look to the fringes, because the fringe always has ideas. "Vote for us, we'll make sure you never get another job" isn't super appealing. People will find an alternative, and it ain't always gonna be leftists promising to implement textbook economic policies.

    I think we got lucky that the Golden Dawn went full Nazi from the start. With a moderated public face, they probably could have done much better in this climate.

    Edith Upwards
  • Morat242Morat242 Registered User regular
    Morat242 wrote: »
    Fortunately, they don't have much leverage over Greece. Greece is running a primary surplus, if they default they can perform some stimulus even if no one will lend them money. And the worst that the EU can do to them if they tell the EU to go fuck themselves is less bad than what the EU is doing to them right now in response to Greek cooperation.

    "Let me burn down your house with all your stuff inside or I'll destroy the TV in your house" is not a very good threat. Not to mention that last year Switzerland told the EU that it was going to start ignoring some of its treaty obligations, and while the treaties are written such that they all are broken if that happens, the EU protested and then went along. They've already demonstrated that their threats aren't super credible.

    As for the fascists, well, if times are desperate and the mainstream parties are all out of ideas, people will look to the fringes, because the fringe always has ideas. "Vote for us, we'll make sure you never get another job" isn't super appealing. People will find an alternative, and it ain't always gonna be leftists promising to implement textbook economic policies.

    I think we got lucky that the Golden Dawn went full Nazi from the start. With a moderated public face, they probably could have done much better in this climate.
    GD might have done better being more circumspect. On the other hand, leaving out the scapegoating minorities and the jingoism would cost them much of their support.

    In this climate, there is zero reason to vote for one of the mainstream parties. Their plan is to commit to a generation or more of grinding poverty that keeps getting worse at the behest of insane foreigners. Indeed, the presence of a viable left alternative has taken the respectable center-left PASOK party from 44% in 2009 to 4.7% last week. That was one of the two major parties, and it has effectively ceased to exist. If SYRIZA hadn't offered a benign alternative, we might be looking at a fascist Greece right now. Because the fascists really can fix the unemployment problem. Not for long before the wheels come off, but for a few years everyone would have a job (or be fleeing the secret police...).

    It's weird, the troika seems to think that if they can just crush SYRIZA that Greeks will glumly go back to voting for PASOK or New Democracy and accept the ruinous deflation that Germany demands. ND might get one whole election where Greeks can't quite bring themselves to vote the Nazis into power, but then another few years of ruin and the Greeks will find someone else. Or there'll be a military coup.

    Panda4You
  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    Wait Greece has an honest to goodness Nazi party?

    nooot the first thing I think of when I think of Greece.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    Wait Greece has an honest to goodness Nazi party?

    nooot the first thing I think of when I think of Greece.

    Eastern Europe/The Balkans baby.

  • Slacker1913Slacker1913 Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    Trace wrote: »
    Wait Greece has an honest to goodness Nazi party?

    nooot the first thing I think of when I think of Greece.

    Eastern Europe/The Balkans baby.
    Nah. Even we're less open about it.

    Eh, I'll get around to it.
Sign In or Register to comment.