Suggests tactical Remain voting might have helped a bit but not nearly enough and that low weucation/skill working class voters were very not energized by Corbyn and Labour
I'm an outsider, but to me this looks like the article I posted earlier had the right of it. She frames it as a democratic Brexit Leave issue (which was motivated in no small part from ideological shift to a superior-minded internationalist upper-middle class socialism by party leader, abandoning working class labour which went apathetic or right wing in response); and Corbyn was definitely the wrong man for a competitive Labour.
But again, as an outsider? I think the working class would have shown for a firm Leave Labour candidate, and the Remain base would have stuck with a candidate that could show thorough and comprehensive social and economic reforms that they could enact as a result of becoming unentangled from the european market
remain voters more radicalised than labour leave voters by FAR
and way more of them
this would have been a net vote loser on a massive scale
ok, you know the scene on the ground better than me
Suggests tactical Remain voting might have helped a bit but not nearly enough and that low weucation/skill working class voters were very not energized by Corbyn and Labour
I'm an outsider, but to me this looks like the article I posted earlier had the right of it. She frames it as a democratic Brexit Leave issue (which was motivated in no small part from ideological shift to a superior-minded internationalist upper-middle class socialism by party leader, abandoning working class labour which went apathetic or right wing in response); and Corbyn was definitely the wrong man for a competitive Labour.
But again, as an outsider? I think the working class would have shown for a firm Leave Labour candidate, and the Remain base would have stuck with a candidate that could show thorough and comprehensive social and economic reforms that they could enact as a result of becoming unentangled from the european market
remain voters more radicalised than labour leave voters by FAR
and way more of them
this would have been a net vote loser on a massive scale
ok, you know the scene on the ground better than me
so again, what was the winning play here
How could Labour have averted this
I don’t think it’s any one thing. It’s a long list of things going back years, it’s the accumulation of bad decisions, bad positions over a long period of time. And for me the responsibility for that lies with the leadership.
Prohass on
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AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited December 2019
Labour should have: Gone full remain and told the nostalgic wrinkly working-class people that they've been lied to and that leaving the EU won't help them. Don't let diseases like nationalism or social conservatism take hold. Use your power to indoctrinate, take control of media and education, and social media. You can only beat fascism by being authoritarian or by force. I truly believe that you can't win by being good anymore.
Absalon on
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Caulk Bite 6One of the multitude of Dans infesting this placeRegistered Userregular
Suggests tactical Remain voting might have helped a bit but not nearly enough and that low weucation/skill working class voters were very not energized by Corbyn and Labour
I'm an outsider, but to me this looks like the article I posted earlier had the right of it. She frames it as a democratic Brexit Leave issue (which was motivated in no small part from ideological shift to a superior-minded internationalist upper-middle class socialism by party leader, abandoning working class labour which went apathetic or right wing in response); and Corbyn was definitely the wrong man for a competitive Labour.
But again, as an outsider? I think the working class would have shown for a firm Leave Labour candidate, and the Remain base would have stuck with a candidate that could show thorough and comprehensive social and economic reforms that they could enact as a result of becoming unentangled from the european market
remain voters more radicalised than labour leave voters by FAR
and way more of them
this would have been a net vote loser on a massive scale
ok, you know the scene on the ground better than me
so again, what was the winning play here
How could Labour have averted this
definitely the case that a more popular leader would have helped. whether this sentiment was justified or not corbyn was toxic by all the usual measures - and the absolute number of voters that turned this from a hung parliament into a big majority is extremely small (look at the miniscule size of most of these majorities in the crucial seats). that might have been enough by itself
part of this reflects long-term trends that werent really susceptible to immediate action by the labour party - eg the gradual feeling of dissassociation that older working class traditionally labour voters felt from the party itself, partly as a result of loss of unions, partly as a result of cultural changes, partly as a result of social conservatism.
as far as brexit goes the question was always of harm minimisation. whatever they did would piss people off - probably going second ref immediately and just sticking to it was the most sensible play but the absolute beneficial effect of this over what they actually did would probably not have been that big. they could have improved brexit policy messaging because it made them look ineffectual but the actual policy itself? eh not much to be mined there.
partly this reflects that the conservatives got the best of all worlds with the brexit party stepping out in crucial areas... and showing up to vote split where it mattered. this was even more crippling than an actual electoral pact. what could labour have done about this? one possibility would be to have been much less pathetic about strategically withdrawing and arranging candidates for an electoral pact. this is the kind of election where it would have made a huge difference
but in the end who knows. to quote oscar gamble they dont think it be like it is but it do
Actually admitting that there is a problem with antisemitism, maybe issuing an apology
Not walking over Remain and not making it seem like you've been forced to take your mainly Remain-supporting base seriously
Having an actually good election strategy after you've been vocally pushing for an election for months - not making something which sounds like a conspiracy theory to many people your pièce de résistance, no stuff like the four-day week which people think isn't going to happen
If I had to place a bet, it would be that this election was about the left not showing up rather than the right doing a great job.
Didn’t realize shit stirring was part of an admin’s duties, my dude
I’m baffled at the idea that my statement was even controversial.
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
edited December 2019
Dumb yank opinion here, but my takeaway is that I think the center & left need to have a long serious look at the strategy of formal alliances going into elections. The Lib Dems 'anyone but Corbyn' attitude is as much at fault here as Labour, but this outcome could have been avoided if the parties had gotten their shit together and agreed to a plan for a government of national unity to VONC Boris & settle Brexit as was bandied about back in... September? October?
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
edited December 2019
small comfort but at least my sense the exit poll was a slight overestimate looks correct - labour already at 192 with 50 left, meaning the 191 exit poll was slightly off (197 now)
however cons ending up with 362 or whatever is still v surprising, though with the volatility implied by the narrow majorities i suppose sometimes we sample from the wrong tail of the distribution...
surrealitycheck on
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BethrynUnhappiness is MandatoryRegistered Userregular
One thing I'll be interested in afterwards is what journalism is done regarding the election advertising. Tory adverts got fact-busted over and over again, but much like the original referendum, the part where we tell people "it's a lie" does not seem to stick as well as "we'll absolutely build 40 hospitals in the coming term."
One thing I'll be interested in afterwards is what journalism is done regarding the election advertising. Tory adverts got fact-busted over and over again, but much like the original referendum, the part where we tell people "it's a lie" does not seem to stick as well as "we'll absolutely build 40 hospitals in the coming term."
Considering how pro Tory much of the media is I doubt any lessons will be learned.
The working class got infected by diseases like nationalism and social conservatism, and Labour couldn't appeal to them because leftists don't know how to talk to or manipulate malicious, selfish and unintelligent people.
If your best explanation for losing is that you're just too damn smart to win, the truth is you probably aren't.
The BBC has also released its estimate for the eventual GB vote share.
Conservatives: 45%
Labour: 33%
Lib Dems: 12%
Greens: 3%
Brexit party: 2%
If Boris Johnson does end up with a 45% vote share, that would be higher than Tony Blair’s in 1997 (he was on 44.3%), higher than Margaret Thatcher’s in any of her three victories (44.9%, 43.5% and 43.2%) and the highest since Edward Heath’s in 1970 (46.2%).
That a misogynistic, racist, xenophobic wanker can cheat and lie his way to potentially the largest vote share in living memory is mind boggling.
SharpyVII on
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
so many super narrow majorities, several in the low hundreds and many in the low thousands
the coinflips really did consistently go one way which is fairly bizarre. people are going to read FAR too much into the absolute size of this majority and ignore how small the absolute number of votes involved was...
Tories overturned an 8,000 Labour majority in Blyth Valley.
And the swing in Sunderland was 10% towards the Tories.
This is going to be as ugly as the exit poll suggests.
Sunderland, you're drunk. Nissan already cancelled new projects at the plant and has basically said in a polite Japanese way they're going to close the whole thing in the event of no deal brexit " business model will be unsustainable" https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-50000530
People of Sunderland: " Fuck business, fuck our jobs, get it done, Boris!"
Honestly, the three big fuck-ups that labour did:
-They didn't ditch Corbyn. I do believe the last time they had a vote to remove him, they opted to keep him despite all signs pointing to the fact that he was hurting the party's chances. Probably non-sense fallacy of "well if we get rid of our leader, it'll weaken the party!"
-They didn't commit to being the remain party.
-They didn't embrace the idea of strategic voting and make deals with the other parties to not run people in districts they were unlikely to win, so that the vote could consolidate around the non-tory that was most likely to win.
I've seen some of their policies, but the problem is Corbyn is a garbage leader that doesn't inspire people to back the party. Not committing to remain, meant they likely turned off voters. Insisting on dividing the non-Tory vote, ensured the Tories would have a greater shot at getting a majority. Granted, do we have exact numbers or just predicted numbers? Also sadly what happened is a collective action problem. Staying at home doesn't help and just ensured the worst outcome. Also another strong argument for ranked voting, don't know if that would have prevented a Tory win, but getting sick of seeing people that a majority don't want ever winning because they have largest vote share.
Apparently Jo Swinson's poll lead over the SNP in East Dunbartonshire is within the margin of error at 1.4%, from a 10.3% (5339 votes) majority in 2017.
I'm not sure what happens when a party leader loses their seat.
Well.
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No-QuarterNothing To FearBut Fear ItselfRegistered Userregular
The Tories Get Brexit Done message clearly resonated with a lot of people.
Having Brexit seems to trounce the health of the NHS or even people's own jobs.
My constituency voted for a Tory MP who was unheard of here until a few months ago when he was parachuted in to replace the previous Tory who went independent.
Seems people just voted for the party in these parts and didn't give a damn about who they're electing as long as they GeT bReXiT dOnE
This is what happens when dumb people go to vote.
Corbyn shares some of the blame, of course, but if despite being shown that Boris is a horrific human being, that Brexit has no discernible benefits and tangible detrimental effects you still want to vote for "get brexit done" then you deserve every last bit of misery coming your way.
The Tories Get Brexit Done message clearly resonated with a lot of people.
Having Brexit seems to trounce the health of the NHS or even people's own jobs.
My constituency voted for a Tory MP who was unheard of here until a few months ago when he was parachuted in to replace the previous Tory who went independent.
Seems people just voted for the party in these parts and didn't give a damn about who they're electing as long as they GeT bReXiT dOnE
I don't know if it's necessarily having Brexit so much as people thinking that this will finally make Brexit go away.
Just a yank here, but I think it might be less the "get brexit done" message resonating so much as "we maybe could consider a possible scenario wherein we might want to do a second referendum if everything else goes our way" failing to resonate.
Suggests tactical Remain voting might have helped a bit but not nearly enough and that low weucation/skill working class voters were very not energized by Corbyn and Labour
I'm an outsider, but to me this looks like the article I posted earlier had the right of it. She frames it as a democratic Brexit Leave issue (which was motivated in no small part from ideological shift to a superior-minded internationalist upper-middle class socialism by party leader, abandoning working class labour which went apathetic or right wing in response); and Corbyn was definitely the wrong man for a competitive Labour.
But again, as an outsider? I think the working class would have shown for a firm Leave Labour candidate, and the Remain base would have stuck with a candidate that could show thorough and comprehensive social and economic reforms that they could enact as a result of becoming unentangled from the european market
remain voters more radicalised than labour leave voters by FAR
and way more of them
this would have been a net vote loser on a massive scale
ok, you know the scene on the ground better than me
so again, what was the winning play here
How could Labour have averted this
I don’t think it’s any one thing. It’s a long list of things going back years, it’s the accumulation of bad decisions, bad positions over a long period of time. And for me the responsibility for that lies with the leadership.
Frankly I think an alternate reality version of labor with exactly the same policies and messaging but a leader who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn would have done significantly better. He is profoundly uncharismatic and unfortunately that seems to matter a lot more than actual policy. I have a theory that in pretty much any given election, its usually the most interesting person who wins, for better or for worse.
Suggests tactical Remain voting might have helped a bit but not nearly enough and that low weucation/skill working class voters were very not energized by Corbyn and Labour
Hope that lifelong minimum wage and lack of worker protections was really worth it for them.
I suspect at least some of the Labour policies on offer this time around would have been head-scratchers that played into their (deserved or not) reputation for profligate spending. Broadband for everyone, 60 billion quid on the WASPI pensions issue, the four day working week. They all seemed to come out of nowhere in the last few weeks/months and felt like Corbyn was telling everyone you'd get a car and you'd get a car and you'd get a car.
I note with no surprise at all that Corbyn is remaining in place until he thinks he has a successor sorted out to his and Milne's satisfaction.
Posts
Just because you haven't got the citations to prove it doesn't make it irrelevant
ok, you know the scene on the ground better than me
so again, what was the winning play here
How could Labour have averted this
I don’t think it’s any one thing. It’s a long list of things going back years, it’s the accumulation of bad decisions, bad positions over a long period of time. And for me the responsibility for that lies with the leadership.
Didn’t realize shit stirring was part of an admin’s duties, my dude
definitely the case that a more popular leader would have helped. whether this sentiment was justified or not corbyn was toxic by all the usual measures - and the absolute number of voters that turned this from a hung parliament into a big majority is extremely small (look at the miniscule size of most of these majorities in the crucial seats). that might have been enough by itself
part of this reflects long-term trends that werent really susceptible to immediate action by the labour party - eg the gradual feeling of dissassociation that older working class traditionally labour voters felt from the party itself, partly as a result of loss of unions, partly as a result of cultural changes, partly as a result of social conservatism.
as far as brexit goes the question was always of harm minimisation. whatever they did would piss people off - probably going second ref immediately and just sticking to it was the most sensible play but the absolute beneficial effect of this over what they actually did would probably not have been that big. they could have improved brexit policy messaging because it made them look ineffectual but the actual policy itself? eh not much to be mined there.
partly this reflects that the conservatives got the best of all worlds with the brexit party stepping out in crucial areas... and showing up to vote split where it mattered. this was even more crippling than an actual electoral pact. what could labour have done about this? one possibility would be to have been much less pathetic about strategically withdrawing and arranging candidates for an electoral pact. this is the kind of election where it would have made a huge difference
but in the end who knows. to quote oscar gamble they dont think it be like it is but it do
Actually admitting that there is a problem with antisemitism, maybe issuing an apology
Not walking over Remain and not making it seem like you've been forced to take your mainly Remain-supporting base seriously
Having an actually good election strategy after you've been vocally pushing for an election for months - not making something which sounds like a conspiracy theory to many people your pièce de résistance, no stuff like the four-day week which people think isn't going to happen
I’m baffled at the idea that my statement was even controversial.
however cons ending up with 362 or whatever is still v surprising, though with the volatility implied by the narrow majorities i suppose sometimes we sample from the wrong tail of the distribution...
Considering how pro Tory much of the media is I doubt any lessons will be learned.
Expect much the same at the next election.
If your best explanation for losing is that you're just too damn smart to win, the truth is you probably aren't.
wtf
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
That a misogynistic, racist, xenophobic wanker can cheat and lie his way to potentially the largest vote share in living memory is mind boggling.
the coinflips really did consistently go one way which is fairly bizarre. people are going to read FAR too much into the absolute size of this majority and ignore how small the absolute number of votes involved was...
5 More years! 5 More years!....
In fairness, Blair is pretty poisonous now with "war criminal" and "lied about weapons of mass destruction" as his main brand.
But we
Sunderland, you're drunk. Nissan already cancelled new projects at the plant and has basically said in a polite Japanese way they're going to close the whole thing in the event of no deal brexit " business model will be unsustainable"
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-50000530
People of Sunderland: " Fuck business, fuck our jobs, get it done, Boris!"
-They didn't ditch Corbyn. I do believe the last time they had a vote to remove him, they opted to keep him despite all signs pointing to the fact that he was hurting the party's chances. Probably non-sense fallacy of "well if we get rid of our leader, it'll weaken the party!"
-They didn't commit to being the remain party.
-They didn't embrace the idea of strategic voting and make deals with the other parties to not run people in districts they were unlikely to win, so that the vote could consolidate around the non-tory that was most likely to win.
I've seen some of their policies, but the problem is Corbyn is a garbage leader that doesn't inspire people to back the party. Not committing to remain, meant they likely turned off voters. Insisting on dividing the non-Tory vote, ensured the Tories would have a greater shot at getting a majority. Granted, do we have exact numbers or just predicted numbers? Also sadly what happened is a collective action problem. Staying at home doesn't help and just ensured the worst outcome. Also another strong argument for ranked voting, don't know if that would have prevented a Tory win, but getting sick of seeing people that a majority don't want ever winning because they have largest vote share.
And that I'm sorry for all of this, as little as the commiseration helps.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Anyway, time to check final tally of results and oh
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No.
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Woken up to find myself financially richer but short a unilateral deceleration of independence.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
Well.
I look forward to a Parliament of people who all look like the weirdo on the University Challenge team.
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Having Brexit seems to trounce the health of the NHS or even people's own jobs.
My constituency voted for a Tory MP who was unheard of here until a few months ago when he was parachuted in to replace the previous Tory who went independent.
Seems people just voted for the party in these parts and didn't give a damn about who they're electing as long as they GeT bReXiT dOnE
Corbyn shares some of the blame, of course, but if despite being shown that Boris is a horrific human being, that Brexit has no discernible benefits and tangible detrimental effects you still want to vote for "get brexit done" then you deserve every last bit of misery coming your way.
I don't know if it's necessarily having Brexit so much as people thinking that this will finally make Brexit go away.
Frankly I think an alternate reality version of labor with exactly the same policies and messaging but a leader who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn would have done significantly better. He is profoundly uncharismatic and unfortunately that seems to matter a lot more than actual policy. I have a theory that in pretty much any given election, its usually the most interesting person who wins, for better or for worse.
Hope that lifelong minimum wage and lack of worker protections was really worth it for them.
Now it's time for the excuses to stop. The country just handed Boris the majority to "get Brexit done".
I sincerely hope he succeeds because his failure to deliver on his promises is going to fuck a large number of people.
I note with no surprise at all that Corbyn is remaining in place until he thinks he has a successor sorted out to his and Milne's satisfaction.
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Well he either fails to get Brexit done which will fuck a large number of people, or he gets Brexit done which will fuck a large number of people.
Not the glorious Brexit he's been promising people. If he pulls it off, we're all going to be better off.
How? Fuck knows. My fiver is on him utterly failing to deliver the kind of Brexit he promised but I'd like to be wrong.