70 storms is to the point that they'd be coming too fast to remain separate and they'd likely be merging during development, which would actually reduce the number of named storms but category 5 would be considered minor.
70 storms is to the point that they'd be coming too fast to remain separate and they'd likely be merging during development, which would actually reduce the number of named storms but category 5 would be considered minor.
I think at some point that would also have to start cooling the water enough to slow things down before it got to that point.
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Ninja Snarl PMy helmet is my burden.Ninja Snarl: Gone, but not forgotten.Registered Userregular
70 storms is to the point that they'd be coming too fast to remain separate and they'd likely be merging during development, which would actually reduce the number of named storms but category 5 would be considered minor.
That's when we use giant robots to fight the weather, right?
70 storms is to the point that they'd be coming too fast to remain separate and they'd likely be merging during development, which would actually reduce the number of named storms but category 5 would be considered minor.
I think at some point that would also have to start cooling the water enough to slow things down before it got to that point.
Yeah you would assume that would happen but have you considered that the polar vortex might soon be the equatorial vortex and maybe the hurricanes will start spreading out in new and interesting ways to use the new places where the ocean water is now amenable to storms
There's a tie for 2005 on named storms, too. 2005's Zeta formed on December 30th, so tons of time to run up the score.
I am not as certain, but full disclosure I am also not a meteorologist so maybe I am spewing bullshit in a second. 05 and 20 are very different years in terms of storms. 05 had more depressions and more intense storms in general. 05 had 4 category 5 storms by this point which is as many category 3 storms 20 has had total. I don't think we are going to see the same tail because we haven't seen as the intensity of the storms just hasn't been there this year. I am not saying we won't get Eta, but I don't think we will get a storm in December.
2005 had 31 depressions. We are currently at 28, but that's still ahead of 2005 at the end of October. While 2005 had more major storms, it also holds several of the bottom slots for the weakest and shortest-lived named storms, like Cindy which went from depression to post-tropical in less than a day and had lower ACE than the average unnamed tropical depression did this year. 2020's storms on average have lasted several days longer than 2005's.
The Atlantic is also still warmer than it was this time in 2005, the Gulf of Mexico and Carribean particularly so, which are disproportionately responsible for late season hurricanes.
Eta is projected to form within the next couple days in almost the same place and on a similar initial track as Zeta. There's also two more systems on track to enter the same area, which is now 3/3 on cyclone formation since mid-October. There's been a persistent gyre south of the Yucatan peninsula since September and combined with the Caribbean still hovering near late summer temperatures it's been something of a storm factory, responsible for a lot of the shit that keeps hitting New Orleans.
Meanwhile, Zeta isn't done giving: It's expected to merge with a wintery storm system crossing the Rockies and could unleash heavy rain and snow on the Northeast.
Eta is projected to form within the next couple days in almost the same place and on a similar initial track as Zeta. There's also two more systems on track to enter the same area, which is now 3/3 on cyclone formation since mid-October. There's been a persistent gyre south of the Yucatan peninsula since September and combined with the Caribbean still hovering near late summer temperatures it's been something of a storm factory, responsible for a lot of the shit that keeps hitting New Orleans.
Meanwhile, Zeta isn't done giving: It's expected to merge with a wintery storm system crossing the Rockies and could unleash heavy rain and snow on the Northeast.
New Orleans has only been bit by one storm this year*. Zeta was a bit of an ass kicker for what it was rates too. Getting hit again would be bad but not catastrophic in and of itself. Everything to the west and north of us, oddly, has been pummeled a ton and could use a serious break.
*I know we have gotten some of the outer bands, but honestly it isn't much of a thing for us in the city. We get nasty storms like that just randomly sometimes.
Eta has formed in the southern Caribbean, headed west towards Nicaragua where it's expected to make landfall as a category 1.
That ties 2005's record for most named storms.
Update: Eta explosively intensified, going from Category 1 to Category 4 in 12 hours. Eta will be making landfall in Nicaragua as a major hurricane. Even worse, Eta is not moving quickly, so it will have plenty of time to dump rain on heavily deforested regions. Eta could be a disaster of the scale of Mitch (Category 5 slow-mover) from 1998, which killed over 11,000. It is going to be a catastrophe.
For extra fun, long range forecasts (GFS and ECMWF) have it having spinning back out over the Caribbean, heading back east towards Jamaica/Cayman Islands, powering back up, then spinning back west and clipping the Yucutan.
So we're not done with Eta by a long shot, even if this upcoming landfall somehow goes better than expected.
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Eta, after killing over 200 (and counting - at least one whole village in Guatemala was buried under a mudslide), going back into the Caribbean Sea, restrengthening a bit, and then crossing Cuba, is going to wander into the Gulf of Mexico to re-intensify again before swinging back east to hit Florida somewhere.
The cone right now covers basically everything on the western coast of Florida up through the panhandle, so Floridians, keep an eye out.
Well, I can tell you it's pouring in South East Florida, with flash flood warnings going out. I also don't have internet ATM, so yay cable company.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Yep, getting a lot of rain here in Central Florida. We need it, as most of our lakes are well below topline, but the length of time it will be about is worrying.
Theta was named this morning, but there's a candidate for Iota heading straight for the gyre that have us Eta and others, very high chance of development on the 5 day forecast. This was the first of three waves heading towards the gyre, the second has already developed.
It is, a couple other this year did the same thing. The storm starts off west Africa, heads west, and as it spins up turns north and swings eventually east. They can do this after hitting Bermuda or the Atlantic coast, but sometimes just do it out mid-ocean.
Theta did this sub-tropical, so by the time it was named it had already completed it's turn and was heading east.
Kinda glad do be in the souther part of germany rn..
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
In 2005 Spain got hit by Hurricane Vince. Very rare but it can happen if all the conditions are right...or are completely wrong because the climate is borked.
Ireland and England occasionally get hit by the remnants of hurricanes, as well - and in 2017, by an actual full hurricane (though they don't call them hurricanes once they leave the tropics, I guess).
In 2005 Spain got hit by Hurricane Vince. Very rare but it can happen if all the conditions are right...or are completely wrong because the climate is borked.
Extratropical is also an occurrence, after Hurricane Michael buzz-sawed through us on the Gulf Coast it rolled through Georgia and out in the Atlantic and ultimately hit Portugal as a cat 3 strength extra tropical cyclone.
Also hurray for Eta deciding to visit us in Panama City... -_-
At least it didn't get a chance to re-strengthen into a hurricane. The real question now, is if it'll die out in sea or manage to stay alive and make landfall yet again somewhere.
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Would require 16 more, which is unlikely even in 2020.
I think at some point that would also have to start cooling the water enough to slow things down before it got to that point.
That's when we use giant robots to fight the weather, right?
Yeah you would assume that would happen but have you considered that the polar vortex might soon be the equatorial vortex and maybe the hurricanes will start spreading out in new and interesting ways to use the new places where the ocean water is now amenable to storms
I am not as certain, but full disclosure I am also not a meteorologist so maybe I am spewing bullshit in a second. 05 and 20 are very different years in terms of storms. 05 had more depressions and more intense storms in general. 05 had 4 category 5 storms by this point which is as many category 3 storms 20 has had total. I don't think we are going to see the same tail because we haven't seen as the intensity of the storms just hasn't been there this year. I am not saying we won't get Eta, but I don't think we will get a storm in December.
The Atlantic is also still warmer than it was this time in 2005, the Gulf of Mexico and Carribean particularly so, which are disproportionately responsible for late season hurricanes.
Meanwhile, Zeta isn't done giving: It's expected to merge with a wintery storm system crossing the Rockies and could unleash heavy rain and snow on the Northeast.
New Orleans has only been bit by one storm this year*. Zeta was a bit of an ass kicker for what it was rates too. Getting hit again would be bad but not catastrophic in and of itself. Everything to the west and north of us, oddly, has been pummeled a ton and could use a serious break.
*I know we have gotten some of the outer bands, but honestly it isn't much of a thing for us in the city. We get nasty storms like that just randomly sometimes.
starting to see some videos of what looks like good sized tsunami action in that area.
That ties 2005's record for most named storms.
Update: Eta explosively intensified, going from Category 1 to Category 4 in 12 hours. Eta will be making landfall in Nicaragua as a major hurricane. Even worse, Eta is not moving quickly, so it will have plenty of time to dump rain on heavily deforested regions. Eta could be a disaster of the scale of Mitch (Category 5 slow-mover) from 1998, which killed over 11,000. It is going to be a catastrophe.
Needless to say this has never happened in November before.
So we're not done with Eta by a long shot, even if this upcoming landfall somehow goes better than expected.
The cone right now covers basically everything on the western coast of Florida up through the panhandle, so Floridians, keep an eye out.
Theta did this sub-tropical, so by the time it was named it had already completed it's turn and was heading east.
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Extratropical is also an occurrence, after Hurricane Michael buzz-sawed through us on the Gulf Coast it rolled through Georgia and out in the Atlantic and ultimately hit Portugal as a cat 3 strength extra tropical cyclone.
Also hurray for Eta deciding to visit us in Panama City... -_-
That said, it looks like it'll be a lower level storm. Things should be mostly fine.
Point of order, Sally had some significant impacts in the panhandle.
Oh no, New Orleans, too!
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Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.