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[Natural Disasters] redux: Fires, Hurricanes, Floods, and everything else

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    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    edited September 2020
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes, it’s required by Florida. In fact if a certain amount of damage is incurred (I forget the percent offhand) flood mitigation is required too as part of rebuild/repair in addition to being brought up to code.

    The biggest concern really is the requirement varies somewhat depending on where in Florida you. For instance, Miami has codes that account for Cat 4,5 hurricanes. Other places like the panhandle have requirements to withstand at least Cat 3 (120 mph), which was fine up until 2018 as there had never been anything higher than Cat 3 to hit here on record. Obviously Michael shattered that notion so I do expect some updates to code in the next few years.

    Blackhawk1313 on
  • Options
    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    It is what had to be done California for earthquake resistant structures.

    I dont think you can make fireproof homes though. Unless it is like a concrete bunker.

    A standard three-bedroom cave home with lounge, kitchen, and bathroom can be excavated out of the rock in the hillside for a similar price to building a house on the surface.

    Turns out, you need oxygen to live and building underground doesn't stop the wildfire overhead from killing you by lack of oxygen. Nor does it deal with the problems of groundwater (both coming in and going out)
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes. In certain counties not rebuilding adds a hefty tax to your bill also. Selling without updates to code makes it impossible to be insured here, so most sellers in the 90s had to update anyway.

  • Options
    furlionfurlion Riskbreaker Lea MondeRegistered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    It is what had to be done California for earthquake resistant structures.

    I dont think you can make fireproof homes though. Unless it is like a concrete bunker.

    A standard three-bedroom cave home with lounge, kitchen, and bathroom can be excavated out of the rock in the hillside for a similar price to building a house on the surface.

    Turns out, you need oxygen to live and building underground doesn't stop the wildfire overhead from killing you by lack of oxygen. Nor does it deal with the problems of groundwater (both coming in and going out)
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes. In certain counties not rebuilding adds a hefty tax to your bill also. Selling without updates to code makes it impossible to be insured here, so most sellers in the 90s had to update anyway.

    Thanks for the information everyone. I assumed that was the case but I also know that rich people not wanting to pay to update their shit so they bribe local governments is also a thing.

    sig.gif Gamertag: KL Retribution
    PSN:Furlion
  • Options
    SorceSorce Not ThereRegistered User regular
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes, it’s required by Florida. In fact if a certain amount of damage is incurred (I forget the percent offhand) flood mitigation is required too as part of rebuild/repair in addition to being brought up to code.

    The biggest concern really is the requirement varies somewhat depending on where in Florida you. For instance, Miami has codes that account for Cat 4,5 hurricanes. Other places like the panhandle have requirements to withstand at least Cat 3 (120 mph), which was fine up until 2018 as there had never been anything higher than Cat 3 to hit here on record. Obviously Michael shattered that notion so I do expect some updates to code in the next few years.
    Yeah, my hometown was decimated by Andrew, and immediately following a lot of homes had to just knock down what was left, and then have to bring ground level up to something like 6 feet above where it was and then put the house on top of that.

    sig.gif
  • Options
    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited September 2020
    Enc wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    It is what had to be done California for earthquake resistant structures.

    I dont think you can make fireproof homes though. Unless it is like a concrete bunker.

    A standard three-bedroom cave home with lounge, kitchen, and bathroom can be excavated out of the rock in the hillside for a similar price to building a house on the surface.

    Turns out, you need oxygen to live and building underground doesn't stop the wildfire overhead from killing you by lack of oxygen. Nor does it deal with the problems of groundwater (both coming in and going out)

    I'd rather have an emergency O2 supply in my cave, and I'm not sure the forests will be around much longer. I can't imagine scrub produces as much gas when burned.

    Asphyxiation is rather moving the goalposts though, because even if you have to evacuate and then pump CO from your house, your house will still be there after the fire.

    But yeah, flooding presents a bigger issue to that than fire does

    discrider on
  • Options
    BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    Sorce wrote: »
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes, it’s required by Florida. In fact if a certain amount of damage is incurred (I forget the percent offhand) flood mitigation is required too as part of rebuild/repair in addition to being brought up to code.

    The biggest concern really is the requirement varies somewhat depending on where in Florida you. For instance, Miami has codes that account for Cat 4,5 hurricanes. Other places like the panhandle have requirements to withstand at least Cat 3 (120 mph), which was fine up until 2018 as there had never been anything higher than Cat 3 to hit here on record. Obviously Michael shattered that notion so I do expect some updates to code in the next few years.
    Yeah, my hometown was decimated by Andrew, and immediately following a lot of homes had to just knock down what was left, and then have to bring ground level up to something like 6 feet above where it was and then put the house on top of that.

    Houston had this after Harvey, homes along some of the flooded areas had to be built up if they were repaired, so you'll see old ranch homes next to a ranch home that's sitting on top of a false basement.

    96058.png?1619393207
  • Options
    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    It is what had to be done California for earthquake resistant structures.

    I dont think you can make fireproof homes though. Unless it is like a concrete bunker.

    A standard three-bedroom cave home with lounge, kitchen, and bathroom can be excavated out of the rock in the hillside for a similar price to building a house on the surface.

    Turns out, you need oxygen to live and building underground doesn't stop the wildfire overhead from killing you by lack of oxygen. Nor does it deal with the problems of groundwater (both coming in and going out)

    I'd rather have an emergency O2 supply in my cave, and I'm not sure the forests will be around much longer. I can't imagine scrub produces as much gas when burned.

    Asphyxiation is rather moving the goalposts though, because even if you have to evacuate and then pump CO from your house, your house will still be there after the fire.

    But yeah, flooding presents a bigger issue to that than fire does

    This is silly for two reasons. First, wildfires are part of a healthy woodland. Forests aren't going anywhere by fires, they just might not be as tall for a bit (though in many cases, plenty of taller pines survive the fires and needle after a year or so). Unless we pave over them, they grow back quickly and more healthy than ever after a fire as the ash creates extremely fertile ground for most trees in those areas. Second, brush burns hot, smokes heavily, and smolders long. If you live in scrubland you don't get to ignore fire risk at all, and again, being underground really isn't a viable living option anywhere these fires are. Earthquakes are real on the west coast.

    And really, the bunker idea is just plain ecologically backwards. Unless you are living well inland in the piedmont the costs to build for totally underground living outweigh the economic ability for most homeowners who aren't the megarich and building wide-ranging series of bunkers underground creates the same problems as suburban sprawl just with your major problems being heavy metal intrusion into your groundwater and poisoning the land from below, rather than from above. It would likely cause major disruptions to most groundwater systems if done in any degree of scale, causing significant heaves and sloughs, if not outright sinkholes in places not historically known for them which would likely destroy the bunker systems.

    Saying bunker living is a viable option is the equivalent of the rich moving to New Zealand. Sure, you might be ok, but it isn't a viable path to sustainability. Just one for a few selfish individuals to hide from the consequences of their actions.

  • Options
    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    The solution to nearly all of these problems is simple, well understood, extremely over-researched and proven, and is economically sound. Place firm rural boundaries, with focus on tightening them over time rather than loosening them. Build denser cities with tighter infrastructure, and invest heavily into ecological management, be it forestry, green energy, or water systems management. All of these are doable, are being done more than historically, and are gaining ground. The problem is that they aren't gaining ground fast enough to have meaningful effect with our previous damage.

  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    Sorce wrote: »
    furlion wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    Orca wrote: »
    Mill wrote: »
    One has to wonder how much climate change is going to drive people out of rural areas; especially, ones that are prone to catching fire.

    Or flooding. How frequently can an area get flooded out by hurricanes until people stop rebuilding there?

    If human history is any indicator, then half past never.

    At a minimum, you would think people would at least build houses suitable for the area but nope, same fucking drywall/wood houses that half-dissolve when they get wet and are completely destroyed by mold as they dry out. And that's in spite of the fact that we definitely can build houses to safely endure those conditions now, but people don't want them because they don't have the same boring-ass looking as every other suburban home in the US.

    Haha ok what? After Andrew building codes radically changed. Houses may still look the sameish in Florida because plastered cinderblock and/or poured concrete is what works best here. How they are built internally is significantly different, especially in roof design.

    We do build this way. We aren't building geodesic domes or some shit because there isn't a need for them and a lot of those high-minded designs are just impractical in other ways.

    Prime example, we took the eyewall of Hurricane Michael in 2018. Our house was built to Florida code in 2013. The only reason we had to have any repairs at all is because two trees straight up fell on the same spot of the roof. Even then, the rest held together through the entire force and the trees did not penetrate living space, only the attic. Wind code building for newer homes is actually very sound. It’s the storm surge and rain aspect that is harder to fight against, things like building up the land and not building in a flood zone are the only real consistent ways to avoid that.

    That's really good to hear but I have a question. When older homes are damaged are they required to rebuild to the new code?

    Yes, it’s required by Florida. In fact if a certain amount of damage is incurred (I forget the percent offhand) flood mitigation is required too as part of rebuild/repair in addition to being brought up to code.

    The biggest concern really is the requirement varies somewhat depending on where in Florida you. For instance, Miami has codes that account for Cat 4,5 hurricanes. Other places like the panhandle have requirements to withstand at least Cat 3 (120 mph), which was fine up until 2018 as there had never been anything higher than Cat 3 to hit here on record. Obviously Michael shattered that notion so I do expect some updates to code in the next few years.
    Yeah, my hometown was decimated by Andrew, and immediately following a lot of homes had to just knock down what was left, and then have to bring ground level up to something like 6 feet above where it was and then put the house on top of that.

    Fun fact! I lived in Cutler Ridge in 1992. I’ve been hit by 2 of the 4 hurricanes on record to hit the US at Cat 5, and eaten the eyewall both times. My wife told me if a third finds me she’s divorcing me. I don’t blame her.

  • Options
    MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    114340_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Hurricane Delta has rapidly intensified. After brushing the Yucatan peninsula Delta is predicted for a weekend landfall in Louisiana, possibly as a major hurricane, and continuing into Mississippi.

    If you're within the cone, take note and start preparations now.

  • Options
    HevachHevach Registered User regular
    48 days ahead of 2005's hurricane Delta. This year is just tearing through records.

  • Options
    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    The solution to nearly all of these problems is simple, well understood, extremely over-researched and proven, and is economically sound. Place firm rural boundaries, with focus on tightening them over time rather than loosening them. Build denser cities with tighter infrastructure, and invest heavily into ecological management, be it forestry, green energy, or water systems management. All of these are doable, are being done more than historically, and are gaining ground. The problem is that they aren't gaining ground fast enough to have meaningful effect with our previous damage.

    A lot of the things that would combat global warming are the same things that also help mitigate the impact of global warming. So of course we don't do them (at least not at the rate we need to be doing them) and turn a win-win into a lose-lose.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Options
    TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Louisiana just can't catch a break this year.

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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Louisiana just can't catch a break this year.

    Making a hard right to avoid Texas is just a natural reaction

  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    Delta is a Cat 3 now, climate change is a myth.

  • Options
    DoctorArchDoctorArch Curmudgeon Registered User regular
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    Switch Friend Code: SW-6732-9515-9697
  • Options
    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    More likely we'll see year names attached, so it will be Delta-2020.

  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    edited October 2020
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.

    Blackhawk1313 on
  • Options
    BullheadBullhead Registered User regular
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.

    Might have to expand to two names from each letter in the future to delay hitting the greeks...

    96058.png?1619393207
  • Options
    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Delta is a Cat 3 now, climate change is a myth.

    A quote from weather.com
    Winds in Delta increased by 85 mph in the 24 hours ending 11:20 a.m. EDT Tuesday. That is more than double the criteria for the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone, which is a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

    I know people in Cozumel.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Delta is a Cat 3 now, climate change is a myth.

    A quote from weather.com
    Winds in Delta increased by 85 mph in the 24 hours ending 11:20 a.m. EDT Tuesday. That is more than double the criteria for the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone, which is a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

    I know people in Cozumel.

    Yeah this is only going to become more common, shits fucked. Rapid intensification is the new normal.

  • Options
    GnizmoGnizmo Registered User regular
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.

    My understanding is it's more of a yes, but also no. The storm will get put on the retired names list but will continue to be used in future years. So it kinda happens but not really.

  • Options
    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    So, what, Delta is now a Wal-Mart greeter?

  • Options
    Doctor DetroitDoctor Detroit Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    So, what, Delta is now a Wal-Mart greeter?

    Designing Women was a long time ago.

  • Options
    KarozKaroz Registered User regular
    edited October 2020
    Edit: whoops fumble fingered

    Karoz on
  • Options
    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Delta is a Cat 3 now, climate change is a myth.

    A quote from weather.com
    Winds in Delta increased by 85 mph in the 24 hours ending 11:20 a.m. EDT Tuesday. That is more than double the criteria for the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone, which is a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

    I know people in Cozumel.

    Yeah this is only going to become more common, shits fucked. Rapid intensification is the new normal.

    Google 'hurricane Delta' and the resulting headlines range from 'expected to hit Louisiana as a hurricane' to 'strengthened to category four' with a smattering of category two and category three headlines in the mix. All of them from within the past 24 hours.

    This rapid intensification will end up producing another Galviston 1900 type event.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Options
    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Alternately it's basically the story of Wilma again. Only a couple weeks earlier.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    Hurricane Michael that everyone seems to forget about would like a word regarding rapid intensification as well.

  • Options
    HevachHevach Registered User regular
    Bullhead wrote: »
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.

    Might have to expand to two names from each letter in the future to delay hitting the greeks...

    There's been a pattern since 1990. 1990 had 14, an all time record. The next four years averaged 7.5, then 1995 spiked again at 19, trashing the old record.

    1996-2004 was a "quiet" period between spikes, but it averaged 13 storms a year, the pre-1990 record, and it's quietest year was still above the pre-1990 average.

    2005 hit the Greeks for the first time at 28. 2006-2019 was another quiet period. It averaged above he 1990 record, and had nine years above the 1995 record.

    2020 is now all but guaranteed to beat 2005, it's got Epsilon and Kappa to tie and 2005 got there around Thanksgiving and Christmas. October's the third busiest month for names storms and we've got the whole month ahead yet.

    If the pattern holds through a fourth spike year, we'll see "normal" years breaking 20 and very few of any years over 10. We probably won't see Greek letters become the norm until after the last spoke, but it's likely to be in play without special conditions.

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    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    One change in there is that they didn't start naming subtropical storms until 2002. So comparing before and after that year should have a bit of an asterisk

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    HevachHevach Registered User regular
    edited October 2020
    That doesn't add much. Every named subtropical storm except 2004's Nicole became tropical and would have been named afterwards.

    Also, not all subtropical cyclones get names, 2005 had a subtropical cyclone and an arctic cyclone that went unnamed despite both reaching hurricane strength.

    Hevach on
  • Options
    Blackhawk1313Blackhawk1313 Demon Hunter for Hire Time RiftRegistered User regular
    Hevach wrote: »
    Bullhead wrote: »
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.

    Might have to expand to two names from each letter in the future to delay hitting the greeks...

    There's been a pattern since 1990. 1990 had 14, an all time record. The next four years averaged 7.5, then 1995 spiked again at 19, trashing the old record.

    1996-2004 was a "quiet" period between spikes, but it averaged 13 storms a year, the pre-1990 record, and it's quietest year was still above the pre-1990 average.

    2005 hit the Greeks for the first time at 28. 2006-2019 was another quiet period. It averaged above he 1990 record, and had nine years above the 1995 record.

    2020 is now all but guaranteed to beat 2005, it's got Epsilon and Kappa to tie and 2005 got there around Thanksgiving and Christmas. October's the third busiest month for names storms and we've got the whole month ahead yet.

    If the pattern holds through a fourth spike year, we'll see "normal" years breaking 20 and very few of any years over 10. We probably won't see Greek letters become the norm until after the last spoke, but it's likely to be in play without special conditions.

    Again, I wouldn’t call 2018, the year in which only the fourth hurricane on record to hit the US at Cat 5 strength occurred.

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    SorceSorce Not ThereRegistered User regular
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    If Delta is a devastating hurricane can greek letter named hurricanes be retired?

    This question was actually answered by them. The answer is no, Greek letters won’t be retired. Whether that bites things in the ass later on when this is a more consistency occurrence and confuses stuff remains to be seen.

    Relevant info:
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/dennismersereau/2020/09/16/what-happens-a-hurricane-named-after-a-greek-letter-needs-to-be-retired/amp/

    EDIT:
    Apparently it’s Cat 4 now. Fun.
    Yeah, Greek letters aren't retired, but the name still gets added to the HoF list.

    sig.gif
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    MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Remember Hurricane Irma, a month before Maria back in 2017? You know how after further analysis the actual death toll for Maria was determined to be a lot higher than the official tally? It's the same with Irma. There had been many reports of nursing home residents who had been abandoned in buildings with no electricity or supplies, in floodwater, but few deaths officially. In actuality, after someone gave enough of a shit to look, it turns out to be over 400 deaths just from those nursing homes. All the same sort of negligence that Puerto Rico would get - Trumpers don't care to even bother counting, much less care about the deaths themselves.

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    RingoRingo He/Him a distinct lack of substanceRegistered User regular
    Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, corporate pr, the local church, etc have all been pushing conservatives to completely abandon observable reality for decades. This is just the end game - nothing matters because they deny it even happened

    Sterica wrote: »
    I know my last visit to my grandpa on his deathbed was to find out how the whole Nazi werewolf thing turned out.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG
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    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    And because 2020 is apparently going for Bingo


    TSUNAMI WARNING 1: See http://tsunami.gov for alert areas. M7.4 055mi SE Sand Point, Alaska 1255AKDT Oct 19

    West Coast danger is currently being evaluated. I'm guessing minor impact, but keep an eye on warnings if you're near the beach today.

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    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    And because 2020 is apparently going for Bingo


    TSUNAMI WARNING 1: See http://tsunami.gov for alert areas. M7.4 055mi SE Sand Point, Alaska 1255AKDT Oct 19

    West Coast danger is currently being evaluated. I'm guessing minor impact, but keep an eye on warnings if you're near the beach today.

    2ft tsunami in Alaska, nil problems expected elsewhere.

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    MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    120104_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Tropical Storm Zeta has formed, and it looks to be taking the exact same path that Delta took three weeks ago.


    Sam Lillo wrote:
    Here's a map of the amount of time spent in the 5-day NHC forecast cones so far in 2020.

    Louisiana has had a cumulative of THREE WEEKS in the cone this year!

    And now we have TD 28 tracking toward the same area.

    Sam Lillo is a meteorologist, and TD 28 is what became Zeta.

    ElIr8vyVgAAd8Eu?format=jpg

    This hurricane season has had a grudge against Bermuda and a serious grudge against Louisiana.

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    HevachHevach Registered User regular
    There's a tie for 2005 on named storms, too. 2005's Zeta formed on December 30th, so tons of time to run up the score.

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    ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    What do they do when they run the Greek alphabet?

    WiiU: Windrunner ; Guild Wars 2: Shadowfire.3940 ; PSN: Bradcopter
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