I think delegates pledged to a candidate who drops out of the race usually switch to whoever that candidate endorses, though they are not forced to do so.
PwnanObrienHe's right, life sucks.Registered Userregular
Talking with a friend on Steam.
She's pissed because she was turned away from a Chicago polling station because she recently moved and the address on her driver's license didn't match her current address.
She brought 3 bills, a state ID, social security card...
Given how Kasich's either too stupid or too optimistic to drop out, especially in light of winning the swing state he used to govern, I expect his campaign's going to keep limping along for a good long while.
Clinton taking Ohio kinda puts a bullet in that "Clinton only wins Southern states that don't matter" argument.
That argument was pretty shitty to begin with given the 2008 red-state primary winner was Obama, which as we all know resulted in a crushing Democratic defeat followed by a year of President McCain and seven years of President Sarah Palin.
Cruz likely can't pass trump in pure delegate count by the time the election rolls around. The strategy, as it stands, would be for Kasich and Cruz to gain enough delegates to make it so Trump gets a plurality and not a majority, which would open the door for delegates to switch to another candidate. Essentially, they'd trigger a second vote of delegates if one candidate doesn't have over 50% of the delegates available. This has a ton of risks involved for the GOP. It alienates a large part of their base. They don't have a lot of love for Ted Cruz, either, and Cruz isn't really a great candidate for a general election either. And everyone else has suspended their campaign, except for Kasich, who has won...one state.
But, it would keep Trump off of their ballot, and might let them salvage something in Congress. And while Trump is still likely to do enough damage to prevent a Republican from taking the White House, in this scenario, by the time this would come around, it would be too late for Trump to get on the ballot as a third party in a large number of states. That's assuming he'd run a third party campaign, which would be very expensive for something that would be a near impossible chance of victory.
If conservatives want a third party candidate themselves, to counter a Trump presidential bid, they would, essentially, have to start that work, like, yesterday, to get on as many ballots as they can. And the requirements for third parties are super high, so....good luck, I guess?
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Der Waffle MousBlame this on the misfortune of your birth.New Yark, New Yark.Registered Userregular
If a new political party formed in the wake of Trump splitting the GOP (and this is a massive hypothetical), I would imagine it would be split between the nationalism and...you know, near outright racism of the base that Trump has courted, and...I don't know. I would have to guess the other half would be, by necessity, more moderate, at the very least on social issues. I'm certain the GOP has lost people to the Democrats over a number of these issues in the past 20 years or so, and aiming at a more progressive social agenda while still maintaining a very conservative view on economics and foreign policy could be a way of drawing moderates from the left.
I'm not a political scientist, by any means, but...this country is going to continue to have racists, and it's going to continue to have bigots, and various other awful people. And those are the people that the Republican Party is, largely, having problems corralling in this primary. If there is any split in that party, and it involves the GOP elites distancing themselves from Trump and what he stands for, it's going to take them pivoting away from the people that aren't going to vote for them anyways, right? And they'd need to find some way to make up for the loss of those votes and also find a way to weaken the Democratic party, if they'd ever want a shot at dethroning the Democrats ever again.
I mean, I don't...think this will actually happen. I think the GOP definitely will go through some serious changes by the time the next election cycle rolls around, but both parties are so entrenched now that any sort of massive change to the status quo is both incredibly difficult and very unlikely.
if I were on the council of lizard men who manages the Republican party I couldn't see myself doing anything other than handing the nomination to Trump, letting him lose and start reorienting for 2020
a brokered convention or an independent establishment candidate (which is a hilarious oxymoron, by the way) could do way more long-term damage to the party's credibility than a Trump candidacy. for years afterwards your reactionary wing would be claiming he could have beaten Hillary if only the fat cats had let him
let Trump lose to Hillary and fade from politics, then find yourself a candidate who can appeal to the populist fringe without being a total moron. there has to be some way to take advantage of xenophobia and protectionism without completely sacrificing corporate interests
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it would be the equivalent of the entire modern Conservative movement falling on their own sword
Chris Matthews is an idiot.
I'm very anxious about the Trump crowd, winor lose
who gets his delegates?
Pretty sure Rubio is endorsing "Not Trump"
Key points:
Cruz is a scumbag
Democrats hire a lot of people
Rubio is not a scumbag on this particular issue!
Trump hires nobody for very much (except his campaign manager, who is reportedly making at least 25k a month).
Sanders pays his intern
Clinton hires more women than the Republicans do put together.
In spirit if not in actual votes, because dear god I hope vocal Ron Paul supporters learned something over the course of 8-12 years.
This should be fun
She's pissed because she was turned away from a Chicago polling station because she recently moved and the address on her driver's license didn't match her current address.
She brought 3 bills, a state ID, social security card...
Republican results; Kasich 43%, Trump 36.5%, Cruz 14.6%, Rubio 3.4%.
Democratic results; Hillary 59.6 %, Bernie 39.3%.
Given how Kasich's either too stupid or too optimistic to drop out, especially in light of winning the swing state he used to govern, I expect his campaign's going to keep limping along for a good long while.
Not high, but there are so many possibilities the odds of any single one are not that high.
That argument was pretty shitty to begin with given the 2008 red-state primary winner was Obama, which as we all know resulted in a crushing Democratic defeat followed by a year of President McCain and seven years of President Sarah Palin.
Constitutionalists?
But, it would keep Trump off of their ballot, and might let them salvage something in Congress. And while Trump is still likely to do enough damage to prevent a Republican from taking the White House, in this scenario, by the time this would come around, it would be too late for Trump to get on the ballot as a third party in a large number of states. That's assuming he'd run a third party campaign, which would be very expensive for something that would be a near impossible chance of victory.
If conservatives want a third party candidate themselves, to counter a Trump presidential bid, they would, essentially, have to start that work, like, yesterday, to get on as many ballots as they can. And the requirements for third parties are super high, so....good luck, I guess?
Democrats
I'm not a political scientist, by any means, but...this country is going to continue to have racists, and it's going to continue to have bigots, and various other awful people. And those are the people that the Republican Party is, largely, having problems corralling in this primary. If there is any split in that party, and it involves the GOP elites distancing themselves from Trump and what he stands for, it's going to take them pivoting away from the people that aren't going to vote for them anyways, right? And they'd need to find some way to make up for the loss of those votes and also find a way to weaken the Democratic party, if they'd ever want a shot at dethroning the Democrats ever again.
I mean, I don't...think this will actually happen. I think the GOP definitely will go through some serious changes by the time the next election cycle rolls around, but both parties are so entrenched now that any sort of massive change to the status quo is both incredibly difficult and very unlikely.
Once trump gets the nom, it will be business as usual (except far more openly offensive)
I...
Are you advocating skinning and tanning a political party?
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The Republican Partay.
a brokered convention or an independent establishment candidate (which is a hilarious oxymoron, by the way) could do way more long-term damage to the party's credibility than a Trump candidacy. for years afterwards your reactionary wing would be claiming he could have beaten Hillary if only the fat cats had let him
let Trump lose to Hillary and fade from politics, then find yourself a candidate who can appeal to the populist fringe without being a total moron. there has to be some way to take advantage of xenophobia and protectionism without completely sacrificing corporate interests
this is all if I were evil of course