To go into more detail on CA-39, Cisneros was down by 3600 votes going into today, they counted another 10k ballots and he gained 700, so he's now down 2900. The votes keep getting bluer as they count, due to the nature of what's being counted.
So how long until we see republicans start introducing bills and state constitutional amendments that severly limits how long vote counting can go on for
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Hi I'm Vee!Formerly VH; She/Her; Is an E X P E R I E N C ERegistered Userregular
So if we assume Sinema has in fact won, then our range of Senate outcomes is:
net 0 (51 49 R)- Espy pulls off a miracle, Nelson pulls out Florida
net -1 (52 48 R) - one of the above
net -2 (53 47 R)- Espy loses, Scott wins
Looking ahead to 2020:
Dems are defending: Oregon (Merkley), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico (Udall), Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Virginia (Warner), Delaware (Coons), New Jersey (Booker), Massachusetts (Markey), New Hampshire (Shaheen), and Alabama (Jones).
So one likely loss, a couple potential swings, but overall not bad.
GOP: Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Georgia (Perdue), Idaho (Risch), Iowa (Ernst), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Louisiana (Cassidy), Maine (Collins), Montana (Daines), Nebraska (Sasse), North Carolina (Tillis), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), West Virginia (Capito), and Wyoming (Enzi)
Also, whoever wins the Mississippi runoff in three weeks has to defend their seat.
Colorado is an obvious opportunity as that state has been trending Democratic. Maine loves its moderate Republicans, maybe the bloom is off that particular rose though finally. Then it depends on how things develop. Could get Iowa back with the right candidate (and continued tariffs) I think, North Carolina is doable, Georgia and Texas you need Abrams or Beto level candidates like say... Abrams and Beto, we could clone Jon Tester in Montana.
Also obviously anywhere weird you can recruit a great candidate and suddenly make things competitive. And there are some real assholes we'd love to take out on that list, like McConnell or Graham.
Winning the Senate seems doable, but it gets a hell of a lot easier if we get the Nelson win in particular. Especially since Espy would have to defend it again.
Just as an aside, McConnell is actually pretty unpopular in Kentucky. If the Democrats put up a reasonable candidate here and fund them properly, McConnell is far from unbeatable. Historically speaking, though, the Democrats pretty much refuse to do that, so we'll see. Hopefully this blue wave push will make them consider it.
There are also rumblings that our current shitty governor Matt Bevin is thinking about challenging McConnell in the primary, which would be fantastic. Bevin is a monster, but if he manages to primary McConnell somehow, that's a massive victory before we even get into his chances against a Democrat.
So if we assume Sinema has in fact won, then our range of Senate outcomes is:
net 0 (51 49 R)- Espy pulls off a miracle, Nelson pulls out Florida
net -1 (52 48 R) - one of the above
net -2 (53 47 R)- Espy loses, Scott wins
Looking ahead to 2020:
Dems are defending: Oregon (Merkley), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico (Udall), Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Virginia (Warner), Delaware (Coons), New Jersey (Booker), Massachusetts (Markey), New Hampshire (Shaheen), and Alabama (Jones).
So one likely loss, a couple potential swings, but overall not bad.
GOP: Alaska (Sullivan), Arkansas (Cotton), Colorado (Gardner), Georgia (Perdue), Idaho (Risch), Iowa (Ernst), Kansas (Roberts), Kentucky (McConnell), Louisiana (Cassidy), Maine (Collins), Montana (Daines), Nebraska (Sasse), North Carolina (Tillis), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), South Dakota (Rounds), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), West Virginia (Capito), and Wyoming (Enzi)
Also, whoever wins the Mississippi runoff in three weeks has to defend their seat.
Colorado is an obvious opportunity as that state has been trending Democratic. Maine loves its moderate Republicans, maybe the bloom is off that particular rose though finally. Then it depends on how things develop. Could get Iowa back with the right candidate (and continued tariffs) I think, North Carolina is doable, Georgia and Texas you need Abrams or Beto level candidates like say... Abrams and Beto, we could clone Jon Tester in Montana.
Also obviously anywhere weird you can recruit a great candidate and suddenly make things competitive. And there are some real assholes we'd love to take out on that list, like McConnell or Graham.
Winning the Senate seems doable, but it gets a hell of a lot easier if we get the Nelson win in particular. Especially since Espy would have to defend it again.
Just as an aside, McConnell is actually pretty unpopular in Kentucky. If the Democrats put up a reasonable candidate here and fund them properly, McConnell is far from unbeatable. Historically speaking, though, the Democrats pretty much refuse to do that, so we'll see. Hopefully this blue wave push will make them consider it.
There are also rumblings that our current shitty governor Matt Bevin is thinking about challenging McConnell in the primary, which would be fantastic. Bevin is a monster, but if he manages to primary McConnell somehow, that's a massive victory before we even get into his chances against a Democrat.
I know. I'm bummed McGrath lost for this reason.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?
It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.
“We must replace the current electronic machines with an electronic machine that produces a verifiable paper trail,” Trautman said. “The problem, of course, is the funding.”
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
So NY-11 was the last densely urban GOP congressional seat, the last one in NYC, the last really conservative bastion. It's the one with Staten Island, and it flipped in the midterm. When the news has talked about it, it's been cast as "the suburbs abandoning the GOP" like in other districts, but Mother Jones just published a story about how a group of Arab-American women jolted into political action by Trump and his racism powered the flip via phone banking, GOTV drives, and so on, and not just flipped the Congressional seat but also the state senate seat, which helped the NY state senate go Democratic for the trifecta.
It wasn't just a thing that happened. People made it happen.
This is some bullshit. An official in Florida is saying those ballots are now invalid because they weren’t delivered in time, through no fault of the people who put the ballots in the mail in time.
So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.
So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.
Big areas take longer to count, are more Democratic.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.
Big areas take longer to count, are more Democratic.
To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."
Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.
You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.
Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.
This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.
See: Every conservative whining on my new rep's page that majority rule means their voices aren't being heard fairly after nearly three decades of majority rule Republican representation.
To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."
Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.
You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.
Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.
This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.
See: Every conservative whining on my new rep's page that majority rule means their voices aren't being heard fairly after nearly three decades of majority rule Republican representation.
The single stupidest thing I continue to read anytime the Dems get control is always the "remember the minority" as if the the fucking GOP ever does that god damn ever, except "remember to fuck over minorities."
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling. https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html
If you've mixed a handful of invalid votes with a large armful of good votes, better to include a few people who shouldn't have voted than exclude a bunch of people who did nothing wrong. (Also, excluding ballots based on a signature mismatch can be awfully overzealous.)
Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling. https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html
It seems that Snipes is bad at her job. We can absolutely talk about changing vote counting procedures for next time. That's an excellent idea.
In the meantime, we have a bunch of votes sitting here. We kinda need to figure out what to do with them! If there are 200 valid votes mixed with 20 invalid ones, it seems we have two choices: one, we ignore them all, throwing off the totals by 200 votes; or two, we count them all, throwing off the totals by 20 votes.
We should find some sort of statistics expert to help us determine which of those numbers is bigger.
Now, if there was reason to believe all of those 20 votes were deliberate fraud, you might have a good case for tossing the whole batch, because you would be introducing a known systematic bias. But most likely, the invalid votes are random fuckups that wouldn't introduce any systematic bias.
But this is all irrelevant, because the only reason Republicans want to ignore these votes is because they come from a democratic leaning area.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
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FairchildRabbit used short words that were easy to understand, like "Hello Pooh, how about Lunch ?"Registered Userregular
I think that Rick Scott likes keeping Brenda Snipes around as a foil, figuring that her toxic blend of dishonesty and incompetence is not enough to be fatal but is enough to fire up Republican voters. It was nearly fatal this time, however. I suspect that the first thing that new Governor DeSantis will do is fire her.
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He'd have a great platform to campaign on but then he'd fuck it all up on election night.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
His campaign speeches would be terrifying
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
LA Times reporter covering it:
If there's even 45k votes left to be counted, that's probably enough, and she's estimating more than that.
Author. Maine fucking loves him, and he's not a fan of Collins. And he's rather outspoken on politics, honestly.
But we've veered WAAAAAYY off topic, so let's leave it at that. Sorry for the tangent.
Just as an aside, McConnell is actually pretty unpopular in Kentucky. If the Democrats put up a reasonable candidate here and fund them properly, McConnell is far from unbeatable. Historically speaking, though, the Democrats pretty much refuse to do that, so we'll see. Hopefully this blue wave push will make them consider it.
There are also rumblings that our current shitty governor Matt Bevin is thinking about challenging McConnell in the primary, which would be fantastic. Bevin is a monster, but if he manages to primary McConnell somehow, that's a massive victory before we even get into his chances against a Democrat.
of course, then we'd have to find someone worse than the person who's worse than mcconnell just to see them lose
I mean, logistically, this shouldn't be a problem.
THANK GOD.
These machines are total garbage. Why in the hell would you select an option by spinning a little wheel? WHY?
Edit: the houston chronicle is a newspaper
I know. I'm bummed McGrath lost for this reason.
It’s been this way as long as I can remember. Might as well have just set up a bank of Commodore 64s or Vote by Wiimote, waggle only.
But democrats abroad have our absentee participation up by 800% over 2014.
So the fact that absentee ballots are making a difference isn't a surprise.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Just solder the name of your candidate on this motherboard...
"Here's a rubix cube. Each colour represents a specific candidate. Place a complete side with the appropriate colour under the camera to vote."
Waggle 1-30 times for republican, precisely 31 times for democrat, 32+ for third party. Which one? Doesn't matter we'll pick for you.
They were kiiiinda on an island in the governor's race as the only ones to give Walker a good chance, basically.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
That actually might be easier than some.ballots...even if it takes a little longer.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/
It wasn't just a thing that happened. People made it happen.
This is some bullshit. An official in Florida is saying those ballots are now invalid because they weren’t delivered in time, through no fault of the people who put the ballots in the mail in time.
To Brian Kemp, Rick Scott, and the GOP in Arizona, I want to say, "Fuck off with your complaints about slow vote counting."
Kemp was Secretary of State. Scott was Governor. Arizona Republicans have held the Governorship and SecState for the past five elections.
You could have fixed this shit. You chose not to. Fuck off with your whining.
Especially Rick Scott. This has been an issue since at least 2000. You knew about it. You did nothing about it. Eat shit. Hope you lose.
This is by design though. They're only bitching about it now because it's finally being used against them instead of for them.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Oh, I know. Hence "Eat shit. Hope you lose."
Nothing more satisfying for the soul than a dick being dicked by their own dickery.
So they are seriously just not going to count these votes? I don’t under stand these arbitrary time limits. What’s the point of lame duck periods if there’s such an important hurry.
Big areas take longer to count, are more Democratic.
The big one.
PSN: ShogunGunshow
Origin: ShogunGunshow
See: Every conservative whining on my new rep's page that majority rule means their voices aren't being heard fairly after nearly three decades of majority rule Republican representation.
The single stupidest thing I continue to read anytime the Dems get control is always the "remember the minority" as if the the fucking GOP ever does that god damn ever, except "remember to fuck over minorities."
pleasepaypreacher.net
Election writer, editor of the Cook Report, etc.
This is gonna make having to drive past the Richard Nixon Presidential Museum every day a little more palatable.
https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html
Signature is a dumb way to validate
It seems that Snipes is bad at her job. We can absolutely talk about changing vote counting procedures for next time. That's an excellent idea.
In the meantime, we have a bunch of votes sitting here. We kinda need to figure out what to do with them! If there are 200 valid votes mixed with 20 invalid ones, it seems we have two choices: one, we ignore them all, throwing off the totals by 200 votes; or two, we count them all, throwing off the totals by 20 votes.
We should find some sort of statistics expert to help us determine which of those numbers is bigger.
Now, if there was reason to believe all of those 20 votes were deliberate fraud, you might have a good case for tossing the whole batch, because you would be introducing a known systematic bias. But most likely, the invalid votes are random fuckups that wouldn't introduce any systematic bias.
But this is all irrelevant, because the only reason Republicans want to ignore these votes is because they come from a democratic leaning area.
That would have definitely invalidated my vote. I never sign it the same way twice.